RosterResource Chat – 6/26/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to another RosterResource Live Chat! We’re about halfway thru the season and only one month away from when teams must decide if they’re a buyer or seller at the trade deadline. Never a dull moment. Here we go …

diadem: When will Capsarius get put onto the rotation on a full time gig?

Jon Becker: Probably not until Ohtani is stretched out to something closer to regular-length starts (maybe three innings?), since they’ve been paired together and Ohtani’s only thrown an inning in each of his first two starts anyway, so he’s basically just an opener. I could see him taking that opener + Wrobleski spot at that point, but they’ll also have to work Glasnow in soon-ish, too.

Matt C.: Next top prospect to get the call?

Jason Martinez: It has to be Chase DeLauter, although I don’t know if we should really trust that the Guardians will call him up anytime soon. He’s been hurt a lot since being drafted but he’s slashing .396/.507/.604 over his last 15 games in AAA. They need another bat. Need to find out if he’s that guy.

A very good resource for this particular question is our MiLB Power Rankings leaderboard, set to AAA/last 14 days …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/minor-league-power-rankings?…

Guest: Do the Cubs stick with Shaw ROS or do they make a move for a 3B at

Guest: deadline?

Jon Becker: The next month is going to be huge for him. The glove has been really good since he came back up but he’s back to slumping at the plate; he’s not hitting the ball hard (I think still the worst average exit velo in the league) and not making great swing decisions, either. If he comes around then they won’t feel a need to make a move, of course, but if it’s more of this they’ll have options. All of these guys could/should/will be available: Paul DeJong, Eugenio Suárez, Ramón Urías, Yoán Moncada, Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

El Coffee: Ashcraft “started” for the pirates this week. Do you think they are going to build him back up to a full starter or is this a temporary 4ish inning type of thing.

Jason Martinez: That was my assumption after Burrows pitched in relief yesterday and since Bubba Chandler has struggled as of late. Ashcraft pitched 3 innings in his MLB start a few days ago and he was built up to 6 innings in AAA before he was called up. So it seems likely that he gets his shot in the rotation.

RoyalBlue: Will Lugo’s player option help or hurt his value?

Jon Becker: Player options hurt trade value, as a general rule. Teams view it as a poison pill: if he’s really good then he opts out and effectively retroactively became a rental, but if he’s awful or has a bad injury (I think the latter is the only thing that could realistically prevent him opting out, since he’s been so good since the start of last year), he’s sticking around. It also makes it really hard to align on trade value.

Chris: Even though he’s looked bad in rehab, I guess the Yanks will give Stroman another shot with Yarb out, but do you think itll be a short leash?  Any chance Schlittler gets a chance in that spot (he has to be added to 40 this offseason anyway)?

Jason Martinez: Yes and yes. And it’s actually turning out to be very good timing. Schlittler has only made 4 AAA starts so I don’t think he’s quite ready yet. I think they give Stroman about 3-4 starts to prove that he belongs in the rotation. If he struggles and Schlittler continues to be very good, I can see them making that change.

Larry: For the rest of the season, who would you prefer between K. Rocker, M. Abel, and G. Holmes? Thanks

Jon Becker: I like all three of them, but Holmes is the only one of the three who’s all but guaranteed to keep his starting rotation spot the rest of the year, assuming health. Abel will get plenty of run with Nola out but could lose his spot to Painter at some point anyway, and Eovaldi, Mahle, and Gray should all be rejoining the Rangers rotation at various points. I like what I’ve seem from Rocker the last couple starts but just not sure he can maintain it.

Guest: What do you look at if trying to stream an RP in the hopes of a stray save?

Jason Martinez: I’d look at usage from the past week, which you can do on the Closer Depth Chart …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/closer-depth-chart

For a pitcher to be unavailable, I usually assume 20+ pitches the previous day, used in back-to-back days, or 3 of last 4. Check out the Astros, for example. Hader has gone back-to-back and 3 of 4. Bryan Abreu didn’t pitch yesterday. That’s a decent bet that Hader is down and Abreu is in line for a save chance.

Joey: What are the chances that Harry Ford gets called up by the Mariners this season?

Jon Becker: If he keeps hitting, a really good chance, especially when rosters expand in September and they can make him the extra guy. Garver ultimately getting DFA’d and Ford being on the Dalton Rushing program of catching a couple times a week while learning the ropes from a veteran is very possible, too.

Martin G.: Best guess for who will be in the Dodgers starting rotation when the playoffs begin?

Jason Martinez: I think it’s pretty straightforward and the Dodgers have to feel very confident about their chances as long as these 4 are healthy … Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Ohtani. Maybe a Kershaw/Ohtani piggyback game. They won the World Series with a lot of bullpen games and rookies throwing multiple innings. Seems like their goal is to get those 4 guys healthy and ready for October.

lance mannion: Speaking Painter when could or should we expect him?

Jon Becker: I think three things dictate that: how healthy the current starting five is, how stretched out/efficient Painter is, and how Abel is pitching. Abel’s had a rough couple starts so that’s in Painter’s favor, but Painter did need 89 pitches to complete five innings his last time out, with four walks. That’s a blip that doesn’t make them think any less highly of him but they might want to see him throw six innings in 90ish pitches just to check another box in terms of up-downs.

Ross: How much longer until Tyler Freeman gets an everyday player-ish playing time projection?

Jason Martinez: He was in the 25-30% range earlier in the season and I’ve moved him up gradually so he’s at around 65% now. But, yeah, probably should be over 80% at this point. No longer a small sample. He has a 152 wRC+ over the last month while playing just about every day. The production might not be sustainable but he’s done enough to assume he’ll be in the starting lineup for good.

RAGBRAI: Does Murphy get moved n the offseason to give Baldwin more PT or does he become the backup and Baldwin gets the lion’s share of PT? Or does it happen this year?

Jon Becker: Murphy’s already essentially a backup who plays a little more than the typical backup (it’s been two games on, one game off for Baldwin for nine games now), so my best guess is they’ll stick with that. And whoever the backup is that day tends to get in as a pinch-hitter so they’re both staying pretty fresh. Maaaaaaaaaybe they make a move in the offseason from a payroll standpoint but from a roster construction standpoint it’s working great for them.

SteveS: Thoughts on Wenceel Perez? Does he hold a spot in the OF all year? If he had more ABs, his Statcast page would be mostly red.

Jason Martinez: Hinch has done a good job getting everyone at-bats. They use everyone. Wenceel has seemed like he’d be the odd man out at some point but he’s forcing his way into becoming a regular. Will be interesting once Vierling is ready to return from the IL. He might actually have to go to AAA since he has options remaining and Wenceel has been too productive to send him back.

Galen: Sam Haggerty strictly a platoon bat? Or is there room for more playing time for him?

Jon Becker: I think he’s one of those platoon bats who will play against every lefty but he hasn’t been fully shielded from righties, either, and in fact hit second against a couple righties when Langford had to miss a couple games. His versatility is really helpful and that team is so starved for offense that they’ll take what they can get from anyone, and he’s been one of the few bright spots since he got brought up.

Rob: Does Jack Perkins get into the A’s rotation this season or will he be stuck in long relief?

Jason Martinez: The emergence of Jacob Lopez makes it a bit challenging and Mitch Spence has also been pretty good since returning to the rotation. Might take an injury or a trade but, at the least, I think they’ll want to see how Perkins looks as a starting pitcher before season’s end. Would be easy enough to move Spence back to the bullpen later in the season. In any case, I think Perkins’ AAA performance ensures that he goes into Spring Training 2026 as a rotation candidate.

Ice Cream Helmet: For a playoff-caliber team, what is the minimum value at the plate they must get from glove-first types, below which the glove just can’t carry the bat? Call it the Kiermaier line. I’m looking at Michael Harris II (53 wRC+) and Nick Allen (64wRC+) and thinking no amount of defensive wizardry can keep those bats in the lineup.

Jon Becker: I wish there was a super clear answer I could give you here, but ultimately there’s not because there are just so many factors. How good of a fielder? How bad of a hitter (and vice versa for the bad defenders!)? What are the options in Triple-A and in trade? How much money is the player making? Etc., etc., etc. To use Denzel Clarke as an example, he’s been a full win more valuable than Harris despite basically the same wRC+ because he’s just that good of a fielder, and it seems like the A’s are perfectly fine with that right now. The vice-versa players might not get talked about quite as much but Nick Castellanos (really bad fielding metrics, 110 wRC+) is right around replacement level, too.

Lowe Distribution System: The Orioles are missing their starting 1B and C.  Basallo continues to crush AAA.  Are they just gonna hold him there to preserve rookie status for next year?

Jason Martinez: It’s a tricky one. He’s only 20 years old so I understand why they don’t want to rush him to the big leagues as a catcher. Being a MLB catcher is really difficult. Hitting MLB pitching is very difficult. Both of those things together is a lot to ask of a young player.

My assumption is that they want to continue developing him as a catcher, which will end if they decide that they just really need his bat in the big league lineup. And since they’re currently not a contender and don’t seem like they will be in a month, I think the priority is to continue with his development in AAA.

Guest: no Walcott homers since 2 on may 30. ways to go this season but how risky that he’s still in AA in April? obviously at his age it wouldn’t be a total killer though

Jon Becker: I don’t think a month without a homer is that big a deal for a 19-year-old in Double-A, no. He’s still walking almost as much as he’s striking out and it’s not like he’s hitting .150 or something, so I’d just chalk it up to “stuff happens.”

Bomber: If the Mets make the playoff, do you feel their current starting pitcher staff allows them to be competitive, or do they need to add a strong SP or two?

Jason Martinez: I think it’s good enough if they had a lights out bullpen, which they currently do not. A healthy Manaea with David Peterson and Clay Holmes is fine. But Peterson is about 5-6 starts away from matching his career high in innings. Holmes has already gone past his career high. I think they need to add a SP and 2 RP. They have to decide if they want to use their elite pitching prospects (Tong, McLean, Sprout) as trade chips or to help the big league roster in 2025. But similar to Peterson/Holmes, how much can those guys help in October even if they were capable of helping now?

Lowe Distribution System: Biggest hitter that gets traded at the deadline?

Jon Becker: Luis Robert Jr. sure seems like the likeliest, but the way he’s hitting he’s certainly not the best. If the DBacks sell I don’t think anyone better than Suárez ends up on the move, but if he stays then I’ll say Ryan O’Hearn (who’s been better than Suárez on a rate basis, anyway, just less pop).

memory challenged: Hey guys, thanks for the hard work on roster resource which is an invaluable tool. Any chance you could add the handedness of the pitcher to the schedule grid for the next ten games? I know it’s dumb because I should already know that, but it would save me a considerable amount of time. What do ya think? Thanks!

Jason Martinez: Would be helpful. I’ll ask about it. Also need to figure out how to deal with so many “opener/primary” days, which are happening more often than ever.

Guest: Telez just hit release waivers. Anyone calling his phone?

Jon Becker: I don’t think teams will be falling over each other to give him an MLB deal, but if an injury happens to a team’s 1B or if he’s willing to go to AAA, sure. Had some decent stretches this year but he’s gotta be a lot better than a 93 wRC+ to justify a roster spot as a 1B without any real value outside the batter’s box.

diadem: If Alcantara leaves who are the frontrunners for his services?

Jason Martinez: I’d have to think Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox are the teams that can be the most aggressive. All have good enough farm systems and ability to add payroll. Not sure if the Padres can match them on either (prospects, payroll flexibility). Mets would be a great fit if the Marlins would be willing to trade him to a division rival. I doubt it.

RAGBRAI: Gallen. What is ROS like? Similar? Traded? Phantom injury?

Jon Becker: With their SP as injured as they are, they’re not going to make up an injury to put him on the IL; they need him, but they obviously need him to be better than he has been. I’m not equipped to opine on what he needs to do to get better without spending some time digging in, but I’ll note that he’s getting a lot less chase on his changeup and curve than he did last year. Could be more non-competitive pitches or not tunneling as well.

Zoe: will colby thomas make an impact this year?

Jason Martinez: Pretty sure he gets to the majors in 2025. He’s too good for AAA and he has to be added to the 40-man after the season, anyways. The big question is his path to playing time. Butler is locked in as the RF. Soderstrom/Rooker are pretty much locked in at LF/DH. Thomas can play CF but Clarke is too good defensively to not give him the remainder of the season to figure out if he can hit MLB pitching. Barring an injury, I think he gets the call in the 2nd half and ends up playing sporadically.

TigersFan1: Who could the Tigers potentially buy at the deadline? They need an extra starting pitcher, so who could that be?

Jon Becker: It’ll be interesting to see how aggressive they are because they haven’t been on the buying side in a long time, so we don’t have a great idea what Ilitch will green light, nor do we know what Greenberg and Harris will want to do. Adding an SP seems contingent on Cobb not coming back (or coming back and not pitching well) but he’s had so many setbacks that I doubt they’re counting on him for much of anything.

Terry Loves Tech: Does Roster Resource make changes to the playing time percentages on the Fangraphs team pages? If so, I’d suggest moving Yelich’s LF percentage down. Unfortunately for his fantasy eligibility, he’s hardly ever playing in the field these days and has a good chance to be DH-only for 2026 fantasy.

Jason Martinez: Yep, I adjust playing time percentages daily. Yelich’s LF vs DH could use a slight adjustment. My initial projection has Contreras getting 20% as the DH and Hoskins getting some time there so Bauers can play some 1B. What has made that inaccurate, however, is that Contreras has caught most days and doesn’t DH often, which probably isn’t sustainable. So I think we’ll eventually see Contreras at DH/Yelich in LF a bit more often in the 2nd half to avoid running Contreras into the ground.

Guest: Does Carson Williams get a September call-up, especially if Kim struggles?

Jon Becker: Williams himself has to force the issue, and thus far he hasn’t, with a 93 wRC+ and 35% K rate at Triple-A. Kim’s glove (not to mention his large contract by TB’s standards) allows him plenty of runway to work through any rust he shows.

Jason matt: Also I was wondering about Max Clark and his progress in the minors? Debut thoughts?

Jason Martinez: I don’t think they expected Clark to move quickly thru the minors so they’re probably happy with his progress. More BB than K and an .830 OPS in Hi-A as a 20-year-old. Pretty good. Once he gets to AA, I think there’s a chance it all clicks and he moves quickly. But it’s actually Kevin McGonigle (also 20 yrs old and in Hi-A) who seems the more likely bet to get to the majors in 2026.

Jason matt: hey guys, I was just looking at the swing% heat map for O’Neil cruz and it was relatively in the strike zone which doesn’t correlate to his leading strikeouts.Thoughts?

Jon Becker: It’s of course easier to make contact with pitches in the zone, but there’s still going to be a wide range of results depending on the player, and Cruz has the third-lowest in-zone contact rate (behind Arias and Devers) amongst qualifiers. Striking out isn’t inherently a bad thing (here’s Ben Clemens’ great article on Riley Greene’s strikeouts), but obviously you can’t benefit from batted ball luck/use speed on strikeouts either.

Jon Becker: That’ll do it for today, we’ll be back at the same time next week. Have a great weekend!