RotoChamp Projections
I’ve added the RotoChamp.com’s fantasy baseball projections to the projections pages and they’re also available in the usual sortable format.
For those interested, you can read the full FAQ on the projection system here.
RotoChamp’s projections are a new entrant (queued) in Tangotiger’s Forecasters Challenge this year.
Full Disclosure: RotoChamp.com is a paying advertiser in the form of banner ads on FanGraphs.com
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Why does RotoChamps think that Chris Perez of the Indians is going to hurl 202 IP? He never even threw more than 67 IP in any year.
I think there is a problem with the projection matched to the playerid. Let me take a look because that isn’t showing up in the sortables.
Ok, all fixed.
Cool, thanks Dave!
Questions: 1. Why isn’t there a tab for RotoChamp when I go to “my projections”
2. Why isn’t there a Bill James tab anywhere
3. Why do the James projections show up on the player pages, when RotoChamp doesn’t?
All this stuff makes it really hard to get a good look at the different projections available on fangraphs.
1) It’s there now, just forgot to add it.
2) Our agreement for this projection set does not allow us to have a sortable projection tab.
3) Basically it can get very crowded on the main stats pages with a lot of projections and we already have all our slots filled for those (5 in total). If you’d like to view all the projections (and details of the fan projections) you can view them in the individual player projections sections: http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=1875&position=OF
Thanks for the explanation.
In the FAQ, RotoChamps mentions that the projections will change based on lineup spot and team strength. Will the projections be updated accordingly or are these frozen as they are today?
Hmm…. I’m not sure. I will have to find out. Hopefully we can get updated projections as the season approaches.
We will update the projections through the end of spring training. As we get a clearer picture of the position battles and other info, we will update. I assume the updates will be very frequent during spring training.
Is this the same group that ran RotoChamps.com?
No. We have no affiliation with rotochamps.com. I think that site is defunct.
Rotochamps.com is defunct? Guess that means maybe they should try to register for Rotochumps.com instead, zing!
I heard from a reliable source that the guys behind rotochamps.com got into cake baking and had no time for fantasy baseball. Not sure if I would have taken that avenue, but they are supposedly making good money in it.
Thanks!
Will Zips projections be added?
Regarding other projection systems, it was stated on a blog that JEH had provided projections to FanGraphs. Given his excellent performance over the last two forecaster’s challenge, is it possible that his projections will be posted freely on this site in the near future?
Full Disclosure: John Eric Hanson’s projections hoped for on Fangraphs, yet nowhere to be seen.
I swapped emails with David A. yesterday, but since I am here now I will mention that my first-pass projections should be in FanGraphs hands at the end of February with updates coming in March as well.
-Eric
Just curious – is an average of each player’s projections available somewhere? I’ve been looking without success… Thanks.
cool idea!
Very cool, it’ll be interesting to see if a projection system that just gathered all projections and compiled them into one will fare any better over all than other systems.
I was contacted by someone about including my projections in a large pool where people could use software to choose all or specific sets for composite numbers. Sounded like a great idea, not sure when it will be ready though.
I have actually already done this exact thing.
Sure would be nice if Fangraphs did it for me.
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=421151
You just saved me 5 hours of my life, thank you!!
In his “Comparing 2010 Hitter Forecasts” post (1/27/11 in FanGraphs’ Community Research section) Will Larson concludes “A weighted avg of the forecasts performs much better than any individual forecast.” I’m not qualified to say if this is correct, but if so would be great if FG or some other site would show avg projections for the players – at least for some of their key stats. I’m intrigued but not dying to crunch those numbers myself…
It would be interesting to see how the average compares to the weighted average stats computed by AggPro. Cameron Snapp, TJ Highley and I developed a methodology to compute weights based on prior seasons that showed the computed weighted average applied to upcoming season projections was more accurate than any of the constituent projections. Full paper that was published in the SABR journal is here: http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~rjg7v/AggPro.pdf
I actually do my own averaging of all the projections I find. I’ve done it for the past 3 seasons and have found it to be extremely helpful. Far more so than just looking at them individually.
@godzilla70
If you read the comments in Larson’s post he says that he will be sharing the weighted projections minus CHONE. I have no idea when that will be but you can check out his website: http://www.williamlarson.com/projections/
Missed that – thanks.
Does anyone know if it’s possible to access last year’s Fan Projections anywhere?
Some of the numbers look a little… optimistic, shall we say?
Adrian Gonzalez is forecast for 761 PA’s this year. That’s a LOT. I don’t think anyone should ever be projected that high.
We have A-Gon for 588 ABs, 96 BBs, and 3 HBP. I’m not sure how the 761 PA got in there. There might be a an error in the PA calculation. I’ll let Dave know.
This should be corrected now.
Are there any projections for quality starts out there? We use that category in my fantasy league, but I haven’t been able to find any projections yet. Anyone have any ideas?
Sorry, didn’t attach it. CBS has quality start projections.
CBS has quality starts projections.
just signed up for rotochamp .. couple of questions … i play in auction league … . 5 x 5
1. pitcher values seem off? e.g. floyd, morrow, kennedy (numerous more) all valued far below guys like brandon lyon, arthur rhodes and bobby jenks?
2. can i upload my cbs league to site instead of manually entering all info
3. can i inlclude “buyout” penalties for total $ left to spend
4. do values take into account # of players left to pick .. not yet drafted .. thanks!