Royals Keep Danny Duffy, Could-Be Ace

It’s no secret the Royals have been facing a challenging offseason. They came in with so many critical players entering their contract years, and they’re also a lower-budget operation with a mediocre farm system. A month and a half ago, I wrote an article entitled “The Royals’ Last Ride.” Some sort of transition appeared inevitable. The Royals would need to work incredibly hard if they wanted to have a chance to win down the line, without sacrificing too much from 2017.

Now, there’s plenty to like about how the transition has gone. The overall situation is still difficult, to be sure, but the Royals got four years of Jorge Soler for one year of Wade Davis. They got four years of Nate Karns for one year of Jarrod Dyson. And now, maybe most significantly, the team has extended Danny Duffy, with a five-year deal covering four years of would-be free agency. Duffy is the best starting pitcher in the organization. He has it in him to be one of the better starting pitchers in the league.

What makes this notable isn’t just that Duffy is sticking around. Duffy, from all available evidence, wanted to stick around. It’s the blend of cost and ability. Duffy’s five-year contract is worth $65 million, with his free-agent years valued close to $15 million each. Nothing that costs that amount of money counts as cheap, but remember that, last offseason, the Royals gave five years and $70 million to Ian Kennedy. They also had to surrender a draft pick. The Marlins surrendered a draft pick and $80 million for Wei-Yin Chen. The Cardinals gave $80 million to Mike Leake. The Tigers surrendered a draft pick and $110 million for Jordan Zimmermann.

Duffy cost what he cost for two reasons. One, he wanted to stay. I’m sure that played some role. And two, Duffy doesn’t have that extended track record of dependability. He didn’t even begin 2016 as a starter, and just a few years ago he underwent elbow reconstruction. It’s not that this is an unfair contract, or a complete and total steal. It’s easy to understand why Duffy would settle here, striking it bigger than almost anyone ever does. You just have to acknowledge the Royals’ upside. The team should be thrilled with this agreement, because Duffy might’ve easily pulled nine figures as a free agent next November.

The most recent season was a breakout campaign. Duffy wound up making 26 starts, a new career high in the majors. And here’s a very simple table to show how Duffy grew:

Out of six years of at least occasional starting in the majors, Duffy in 2016 posted his best strikeout rate, as well as his best walk rate. He also posted his worst home-run rate, and that certainly isn’t something to ignore, but we also all should understand by now that that’s one of the least-predictive rates around, and homers were flying everywhere, anyway. By the basics, Duffy got a lot better. There were stretches where he looked like a legitimate No. 1.

Over Duffy’s first 19 starts, he allowed 14 dingers. He allowed 12 more over his final seven. There might’ve been some element of wearing down, further supported by a gradual loss in fastball zip. Duffy isn’t a true ace, or a proven ace, and there’s no getting around his somewhat messy September. But there were so many encouraging signs before that. You can’t fake the strikeout rate he ran. You can’t fake his velocity, or the pair of good secondary pitches. Duffy had four starts with zero walks and at least eight strikeouts; only three starters had more. Duffy also struck out 16 Rays over eight innings on August 1, with one hit and one walk. In that game, Duffy generated 35 swinging strikes. That was the season’s highest mark for anyone, clearing Max Scherzer’s 33.

Looking at the picture overall — there were 137 starters last year who threw at least 100 innings. Here are categories in which Duffy ranked in the top eighth of them:

• Fastball velocity
• Strike rate
• Strikeout minus walk rate
• Contact rate allowed
• In-zone contact rate allowed
• Zone rate

The biggest problem was the quality of contact, when hitters got the bat on the ball; only Patrick Corbin and A.J. Griffin wound up with worse hard-hit rates. That number, though, can bounce around, and it’s not even necessarily crippling when you strike guys out and don’t issue free passes. It’s interesting to note David Price’s similarly elevated hard-hit rate. Price and Duffy had almost identical strike rates. They had almost identical zone rates, contact rates, and strikeout-minus-walk rates. Price has a wonderful track record, and Duffy’s own record is less wonderful. As such, anyone would take Price over Duffy for a one-game playoff. But all of a sudden, there are some pretty surprising parallels. Over an extended period of time, Duffy showed an ability to miss bats while also throwing consistent strikes. Only highly-talented pitchers are able to pull that combination off.

For Duffy, this is an opportunity to stay where he’s been. To stay where he’s developed, to stay where he’s won. For the Royals, this is an investment in a somewhat risky starting pitcher. He’s a pitcher with a short record of quality starting, and he’s a pitcher with an injury history. If Duffy gets hurt again, or wears down under the burden of the workload, that’ll be tough for the Royals to get out from under. But at least from here, there’s still seemingly so much room for upside. Duffy isn’t a classic No. 1 pitcher, but he’s gotten himself tantalizingly close. His delivery and approach are simple, with the results so promising, and the best indicator of a future ace is someone who’s looked like one in spurts. Duffy just had a few of those spurts. In many categories, he compared well to some of the best starting pitchers around. If Duffy manages to pan out as he could, winning in the post-2017 future should be that much more achievable. To say nothing of the season just ahead.