Russell Martin, MLB Catchers Have Stopped Stealing

Catchers are generally associated with stopping stolen bases on the defensive side. Last season, catchers stopped stealing bases on the offensive side as well. Russell Martin, Carlos Ruiz, and Jonathan Lucroy tied for the Major League Baseball lead for stolen bases by a catcher in 2014 with four. Catchers are not known for their prowess on the basepaths, but four is still an incredibly low number to lead MLB at the position. No catcher had topped his position with that low of a number since Stan Lopata in 1955, also with four stolen bases. A catcher has not topped double figures in steals since Yadier Molina’s 12 in 2012, and only Molina, Russell Martin, Jason Kendall, Ivan Rodriguez, and Joe Mauer have reached double-figures in the last ten years.

A dearth of speed at the catcher position does not cause alarm bells to ring, but whether 2014 was an anomaly or the result of a slow Molina-like progression on the bases is an interesting question. Since 1945, the career stolen base leaders for catcher have a lot of fairly recent names.

Jason Kendall, Ivan Rodriguez, and Brad Ausmus were all playing just a few years ago. Russell Martin is still playing, and he is the only active player on the list. The active player leaderboard is not very impressive. Just 14 career stolen bases gets a player in the top ten.

Since Jason Kendall had three straight years of at least 20 steals from 1998-2000, Russell Martin’s 2007 season is the only time a catcher has had at least 20 stolen bases in a season. If Yadier Molina can outlast fellow 32-year old Russell Martin, there is a decent chance that Molina will be the active leader in stolen bases from the catcher position. Stolen bases from the catcher position were not down only for the leaders in 2014. The 46 stolen bases from the catcher position in 2014 was the lowest since catchers stole just 44 bases in 1962. Here are the stolen-base totals from the catcher position over the last 30 years.

The last few years have seen a precipitous drop in the number of stolen bases from the catcher position, although just two years ago, the stolen-base numbers were above the 30-year average for catchers. Stolen bases have seen some decline over the past few years league-wide, but not to the same level as catchers.

Stolen bases actually increased in MLB from 2013 to 2014. Catcher stolen bases over the years could be influenced by one or two relative speedsters keeping up the numbers. However, that would not be the case with Base-Running (BsR). BsR takes stolen bases into account as well as taking the extra base and getting thrown out on the bases. BsR is relative to average so catchers would not be expected to perform well. The current version of BsR dates back to 2002 so a 30-year look back would not provide an accurate picture.

Here is the catcher BsR since 2002:

That catchers are not good base runners is not surprising. While 2014 was a poor year for both stealing bases as well as taking the extra base for catchers, BsR did not fall off the same cliff that stolen bases did. Catchers were still bad on the basepaths in 2014, but there is not much in the way of evidence to indicate they have all gotten much slower compared to their peers in the past decade.

According to ZiPS, another down year is expected for catchers trying to steal bases. Among projected starters, only Christian Bethancourt is projected to get in double figures in 2015. Bethancourt has hit 11 steals twice in the minors and had eight last season, including one at the MLB level. Lucroy and Martin are projected for six with Yadier Molina at five. We should see another light year in the stolen-base department.

While steals have gone down, and 2014 was a bad year on the bases for catcher, the overall offense for catchers has seen an uptick. This increase has resulted in considerably more value from catchers over the past five years. Here is a graph showing wRC+ and WAR from 2002-2014.

Catchers have gained around 20 wins over the past ten years to go along with a 10 point increase in wRC+. Catchers are not hitting better, but they have gotten worse at a slower rate in hitting compared to the rest of the league in the past few years.

A decade ago, catchers were equivalent with shortstops offensively and behind second basemen. They have outhit shortstops since then, and they have outhit second basemen since 2011. Stolen bases were down in 2014, and notwithstanding an outbreak from Christian Bethancourt or a return to peak levels from Russell Martin and Yadier Molina, the numbers are not likely to be great in 2015. Overall, the Base-Running is not likely to be much worse than typical catcher numbers over the past decade as catchers continue to attempt to climb closer to average on offense.