Ryne Stanek Is Finally An Ace. Don’t Look At His Numbers, Just Trust Me.

© Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

I once spent what felt like a lifetime arguing with a colleague who hated the German soccer player Mesut Özil and would not be moved no matter what statistical evidence, stunning highlights, or expert analysis he consumed. For years, my friend insisted Özil was trash, and for years he was wrong.

Then, Özil finally lost a step, fell out with his coach, and got benched. Rather than admit circumstances had changed, my friend claimed victory, as if he’d prophesied the truth instead of stumbling into it after the fact. Which I’m totally fine with, by the way, and in no way still so pissed about that I’m bringing it up for an audience that likely knows or cares little about semi-retired European soccer playmakers and even less about my onetime debate partner. No, sir. Anyway, this experience taught me an important lesson about sports takemanship: If you hold on to an opinion long enough, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, sometimes the mountain comes to Mohammed.

In that spirit, I’m declaring that I was right about Ryne Stanek all along. Back in 2012, I was a huge Stanek fan. In his days at the University of Arkansas, he was one of the top candidates to go first overall in the 2013 draft. I saw his fastball velocity and wipeout slider and imagined him as a future no. 1 starter. And when Stanek continued to worry scouts his junior year — he fell all the way to no. 29 in the draft, despite posting a 1.39 ERA as a starter in the SEC — I was unmoved. Stanek would come good, I insisted.

For nine years, I kept the faith. Through injuries, through command problems, through a move to the bullpen. When Stanek finally started a handful of major league games, it was as an opener, the Blaster to Jalen Beeks’s Master. He was effective in short bursts, but a trade to the Marlins in mid-2019 and a month-long bout with COVID in 2020 brought his career to the brink of dissolution.

Suffice it to say, things have changed. Last year, Stanek became a key part of the Astros’ bullpen, appearing in 13 of Houston’s 16 playoff games, holding batters to a .139/.184/.333 line, and posting a positive WPA in the first 12 of those outings. This year, well, here’s a list of the top reliever ERAs in baseball this season:

Top Reliever ERAs, 2022 Season
Name Team ERA G IP
Evan Phillips LAD 1.16 63 62
Ryne Stanek HOU 1.17 58 53.2
Ryan Helsley STL 1.26 53 64.1
Edwin Díaz NYM 1.34 60 60.2
Emmanuel Clase CLE 1.38 76 71.2
Cionel Pérez BAL 1.43 65 56.2
Anthony Bass MIA/TOR 1.56 72 69.1
Jason Adam TBR 1.56 67 63.1
Alexis Díaz CIN 1.76 57 61.1
Brock Burke TEX 1.78 51 81
Daniel Bard COL 1.82 55 59.1
Erik Swanson SEA 1.85 54 48.2
Jhoan Duran MIN 1.86 57 67.2
Devin Williams MIL 1.93 65 60.2
Through Sunday, Minimum 40 IP

It took nine years, but Stanek is finally as dominant as he was at Arkansas. A 1.17 ERA in 58 appearances for the top seed in the American League might not be a 200-inning Cy Young season, but it’s close enough that I can claim to have triumphed in the marketplace of ideas.

Many of these names above will be familiar to you from a piece Ben Clemens wrote last week about how the top relievers in baseball are especially dominant. Among the players he mentioned are the ones you’ll remember in several years’ time: Helsley chucking the rock at 104 mph, Díaz storming in to trumpet fanfare like a Roman consul, Clase cuttering through opponents like Mariano Rivera, plus six ticks. But Stanek, who’s second among relievers in ERA, didn’t merit a mention. As if he’s not actually elite.

The Astros don’t seem to think so either, or at least they’re not using him that way. Among the six Astros relievers with at least 40 innings pitched, Stanek is only fourth in gmLI, at 1.22, which places him in the range of important middle relievers, but hardly a high-leverage fireman or closer. Some of that is down to Houston having a loaded bullpen: in addition to closer Ryan Pressly, the Astros have invested significant resources in the past 18 months to sign or trade for Héctor Neris, Will Smith, Phil Maton, and Rafael Montero. They’ve all pitched well, as has Bryan Abreu. And Houston’s surfeit of rotation arms will bolster the bullpen in the playoffs — Justin Verlander acolyte Hunter Brown has already moved over, and one or both of José Urquidy and Luis Garcia is likely to join him there as October rolls on.

The other reason Stanek’s exceptional run prevention season is going unnoticed is that it’s most remarkable in one specific way: The sheer number of fluky season red flags he’s managed to hit. In an era when the best relievers are striking out tons of batters and walking no one, Stanek is a throwback to the Matt ManteiArmando Benitez-type relief ace who gets outs but walks so many guys you end up watching his appearances through your fingers. I’m not complaining — everything that was cool when I was a middle schooler is coming back into style, it seems. Just today I saw a TikTok about how to make your hair look like Shawn’s from Boy Meets World. But I digress. Let’s take a look at some of Stanek’s stats:

Ryne Stanek’s Rank in Key Fluke Indicators, Part 1
Category Value Rank*
BABIP .266 69th
LOB% 91.6 3rd
HR/FB% 4.0 12th
ERA-FIP -1.84 3rd
*Out of 198 relievers with at least 40 IP.
Through Saturday

The Statcast-derived metrics are no more flattering:

Ryne Stanek’s Rank in Key Fluke Indicators, Part 2
Category Value Rank*
SLG-xSLG -.050 20th
wOBA-xwOBA -.020 55th
ERA-xERA -2.02 2nd
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
*Out of 360 pitchers with at least 1.25 BF per team game.
Through Saturday

Calling Stanek’s season fluky feels unkind, and it’s certainly not my intention to denigrate the fine work he’s done this year. The F-word is usually tagged to players whose superficial stats look good but are actually bad. Stanek, based on the underlying numbers, is a good reliever whose ERA makes him look like Dennis Eckersley.

What is he, then? Well, basically the same pitcher he was last year: A good middle reliever with an above-average strikeout rate and a slightly concerning walk rate. He’s much less homer-prone this year, but that’s about it. His improved LOB% and inherited runner strand rate (up to 41% from 19% in 2021) come despite very similar performance with runners on base (.257 opponent wOBA in 2021, .267 this year). But it bears repeating that he was a workhorse in the playoffs for an Astros team that nearly won the title, and with the LDS and LCS both losing an off day, more of this postseason than ever will be decided by teams’ fourth- and fifth-best relievers.

Players like Stanek, in other words. As much as the Astros need star performances from Verlander, Pressly, and so on, they need their entire pitching staff to show up. Lucky for them, for the seventh and eighth innings they have an ace, just as I predicted all those years ago.





Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.

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JJWattsArmBrace
1 year ago

The Astros have one of the most unique pitching situations of any playoff team I can remember. They literally could send a guy (Cristian Javier) to the bullpen who would be the number one starter on literally15 or 20 teams in MLB. The reliever with the best ERA in baseball will come in and pitch a 5th or 6th inning in a blowout. Jose Urquidy, who has started and pitched well in the World Series in consecutive years might not even be on the roster at all! Luis Garcia, one of the 50 most valuable trade assets in the league according to this site, is all but assured of mop duty at best.

The best part about it all? They lost the GOAT pitching coach, Brett Strom, to the Diamondbacks this year, who revitalized a number of the D Backs pitchers. The craziest part of it all? Dusty Baker and James Click are likely getting fired if the Astros don’t win the World Series on the heels of a 104+(!!!!) win season. Wow!

sadtrombonemember
1 year ago

I find the James Click situation to be really bizarre. If his contract is not renewed he will be the first choice for literally any team who wants a new head of baseball operations. Teams that have iffy financial or meddling ownership situations need not apply. New ownership for the Nationals or Angels will be first in line, assuming that Dave Dombrowski or Billy Eppler won’t wear out their welcome first (I sincerely doubt it). In his next gig he will get to clean house and build an organization from the ground up and he’ll have a ton of resources to do it.

That said, if his departure involves Pete Putila taking over the top job I think they’ll be fine.

sadtrombonemember
1 year ago

Also, while Javier would definitely be the clear-cut best pitcher on about 10ish teams right now (Rangers, Cards, Red Sox, Twins, A’s, Nats, Royals, Pirates, Tigers, Orioles, and Cubs), he’s probably in the same tier as the best starters on another 10ish teams. And part of the reason why he would be the best starter on a lot of those teams is because some of these teams have nobody better than a 5th starter. And the Nats don’t have a single credible starting pitcher, which is hysterically bad.

JJWattsArmBrace
1 year ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

The Nationals … I mean wow … but anyway, even though Javier might be in the pen I’m not so sure that he shouldn’t be starting, especially if the Astros play Toronto in the ALDS. I think it’s all but assured Verlander-Valdez-McCullers go games 1-3. Then you really are deciding between Urquidy/Javier or maybe an opener (Bryan Abreu), Javier for 3-4, maybe Urquidy for an inning or two and then Pressly. I guess the question really becomes do the Astros limit Valdez or McCullers to twice through the order and then try to bridge those middle innings with a starter, or do they just kind of let them have at it if they’re pitching well? My gut tells me Dusty rides or dies with the starters but he was fairly progressive in the postseason last year so who knows. The caveat there is that McCullers and Verla set were injured of course. I’m not sure any of the options are that bad except starting Urquidy in Toronto (Seattle is a much better park and lineup for him to pitch to imo)

sadtrombonemember
1 year ago

I would guess that McCullers going in Game 3 depends on how sharp he looks, because he hasn’t looked that sharp this season. Playable, but not amazing. Still another start to tune up. They do have a tendency to piggyback starters which works well for guys like Javier who can play either the first or second half of that role.

Trevor May Care Attitude
1 year ago

As a fan of one of those 15 or 20 teams, I find the idea that the GM who assembled so many solid-or-better starters that the Astros can’t find innings for some of them — that he might actually lose his job for not meeting expectations, well…. It’s hilarious. And also depressing. It’s hilariously depressing.

Joe Joemember
1 year ago

It basically comes down to the owner picking the manager before the general manager instead of letting GM pick a manager. It looks like the owner isn’t taking responsibility for Dusty and Click not seeing eye to eye. Dusty appears to be great with the players, but he does not appear to be playing players in the roles Click had planned. From the outside, it looks like relationship of Howe and Beane in the movie Moneyball.