Scouting Carson Fulmer and Other White Sox Prospects

Carson Fulmer was perhaps the 2015 draft’s most polarizing prospect. He was, on one hand, a college prospect with a career-long track record of success (sub-2 ERAs as a sophomore and junior, 167 Ks in 127.2 IP in ’15) and objectively hellacious stuff, while, on the other hand, both inefficient and the owner of an ugly-duckling delivery that scared off many more scouts than just the usual cross section of xenophobes. Mostly, three camps formed: the group that thought Fulmer could start, the group who thought he’d end up in relief and was bothered enough by that to move him down their board, and the group that thought he’d end up in relief but didn’t care.

In an ironic twist best suited for baseball, Fulmer has essentially proven each camp right while simultaneously remaining difficult to project, even as he’s ascended to the majors. His stuff remains incredible, each offering in the four-pitch repertoire ready to miss major-league bats, but he’s walked 51 hitters in 87 innings this season.

I like, in these call-up pieces, to talk about things like pitch sequencing and pitch utility so we can have a deeper and more intricate understanding of how these guys are getting outs. With Fulmer, that’s not possible. Because Fulmer is just as likely to throw a strike with his fastball as he is with any other pitch, he’ll throw any of his four pitches in any count to both left- and right-handed hitters. This is strangely liberating. Fulmer’s fastball was 93-94 mph at the Futures Game and in his debut on Sunday. All the secondaries (cutter 89-91, curveball 77-81 with 11-5 movement, changeup 85-89 with arm-side run) are above-average to plus and could be coming at any time.

Fulmer’s delivery is paced like a hummingbird’s heart beat and lots of scouts think it’s the primary cause of his wildness. It’s also part of what makes him so unique and difficult to hit. It appears as though the White Sox plan on using Fulmer in an upscaled relief role, which is probably going to be good for (a) maximizing his impact on the club this year by frequently deploying him for more than three outs at a time and (b) giving him more opportunities to hone his command than he’d be getting as a standard, one-inning reliever. It’s hard to project better than 40 future control for Fulmer, but there is a chance he figures out how to throw an acceptable amount of strikes sometime during his mid-20s — the way it looks like Trevor Bauer has, for example — and makes it work as a starter. If he does his stuff is good enough to carry him to a #3 starter’s value despite his likely inefficiency.

This piece by Kiley McDaniel from last year is long and thorough enough to require a link here, though I don’t know with how much of it I agree. I’m all for skirting typical scouting criteria and trying to look at each prospect bias free, but I think inventing a new bucket in which to place players pre-draft, especially one with a bunch of semi-arbitrary qualifiers, is the opposite of that.

Below are notes on other White Sox prospects with whom I’ve crossed paths lately.

Alec Hansen, RHP, AZL White Sox

I was in attendance for what has been Hansen’s worst pro appearance so far but he has since thrown two more times, been moved up to the Pioneer League and has walked just two while striking out 14 in his last seven innings during those appearances. He threw 41 of his 56 pitches for strikes on Sunday. The AZL start that I saw fell apart in the second inning when Hansen lost both velocity and command. He was sitting 94-97 and touched 98 in the first while throwing strikes. When he came out for the second, there were some 92s and 93s and he had lost the zone entirely. There wasn’t anything noticeably different about Hansen’s delivery compared to the spring, but he did show a blunt but deep 78 mph curveball with 11-5 movement, something I did not see from him in March with Oklahoma when he was leaning on a plus, upper-80s slider.

Amado Nunez, SS, AZL White Sox

Nunez signed for just shy of $1 million back in 2014 and turns 19 in October. His body has matured quite a bit over the last year or so and he’s increasingly likely to move off of shortstop. I’ve gotten several 30- to 40-grade run times from Nunez and I don’t think the range for shortstop is going to be there. His footwork, athleticism and arm strength are all fine, though, and he could be an above-average defender at third base. Offensively, Nunez’s hands have life through contact. His wrists are loose and strong and he can drive the ball to all fields despite poor use of his lower half. The swing and overall approach to hitting are both raw, but I think Nunez has the physical tools to do some damage with the bat if that stuff gets ironed out.

First-round pick C Zack Collins (video hit, video receiving) had a rough three-game stint in the AZL as he shook off the rust built up after two weeks off between the end of the U of Miami’s postseason and Collins’ signing. But that bat speed is intact and, physically, he looks fine. Though he wasn’t catching much big-league quality stuff in the AZL, I was actually pleasantly surprised by his defense, though pre-draft reports on his likely future move to first base were too resolute to suddenly dismiss. INF Leury Garcia can still fly and remains explosive but frustrating. His approach to hitting remains geared for more power than his body is able to provide. He’s hitting at a .325/.378/440 clip at Triple-A, but I don’t think his approach is sustainable for big league success. I think he’ll make for an interesting utility man (he’s played 2B, SS, LF, and CF this year) but, at 25, it’s hard to envision him hitting enough to claim an everyday job.

Chicago gave Dominican RF Franklin Reyes (video) $1.5 million on July 2 of last year. He doesn’t turn 18 until September but he’s struggling so far in pro ball, hitting a paltry .170/.198/.216 in 21 AZL games. He’s been swinging at everything down here in Arizona and his indiscriminate approach, along with well below-average athleticism, has been the cause of his struggles. He’s been slow to close on balls in the outfield and taken some long, ugly swings against mediocre stuff. There’s 70 raw power projection and a 60 arm there, though. OF Micker Adolfo (video) still has an overaggressive approach and poor balance in the box that completely undercuts his prodigious physical skill. He’s just 19 but I think we need to see an adjustment made soon.