Scouting the Cardinals’ Return for Jaime Garcia
The St. Louis Cardinals sent lefty Jaime Garcia to Atlanta in exchange for a trio of minor leaguers this evening. Below are my thoughts on the prospects heading to St. Louis in the deal.
John Gant, RHP (Profile)
The good-bodied and eccentric Gant is probably the likeliest to yield big-league value of the triumvirate acquired by St. Louis tonight. He’s already spent time there, having thrown 50 major-league innings in 2016. As a rookie, Gant struck out nearly a batter per inning (recording a 22% strikeout rate) but also struggled with walks (9.5%). Gant’s fastball sits in the low 90s, mostly 90-93, but will touch as high as 96 and has a slightly above-average spin rate. His changeup is his best secondary offering and best pitch overall. It’s a plus, low-80s cambio that disappears away from lefties as it approaches the plate. Gant maintains his fastball’s arm speed throughout release. There are times when Gant makes a visible effort to create extra movement on the pitch, alters his arm action, and causes his change to flatten out. He also has a loopy, below-average mid-70s curveball. He’s had to use the curve more frequently than a pitch of this quality usually warrants in order to navigate his way through minor-league lineups multiple times.
As for role, the Braves shuttled Gant back and forth between the rotation and bullpen in 2016. He projects as a fastball/changeup reliever in the Tyler Clippard mold. On the other hand, if he’s going to start, Gant will need to accomplish some combination of the following:
- Develop a better curveball; or
- Develop a third pitch that’s better than his curveball; or
- Improve his control/command by at least a half grade.
He’s 24 and, while it isn’t impossible, that kind of progression is unlikely at this stage.
Chris Ellis, RHP (Profile)
Once part of the package returned from Anaheim in exchange for Andrelton Simmons, Ellis’ command issues and lack of a quality changeup at age 24 point to a likely role in middle relief. In 146 innings between Double- and Triple-A, Ellis struck out 126, walked 87 and posted a 4.49 ERA. He was mostly 90-94 in his Arizona Fall League stint with an average, vertically breaking slider in the 78-83 mph range. He generates good plane on the fastball because of his overhand arm slot. His changeup is below average, as is his command, and the changeup has little projection because it’s hard to create movement on it from that arm slot. If the fastball/slider tick up in relief, he’s a solid big-league relief piece.
Both Ellis and Gant are likely to see time in St. Louis this next year.
Luke Dykstra, 2B (Profile)
Despite his terrific low-level performance, scouts are skeptical about Dykstra’s swing playing at upper levels and few are confident in his ability to sustain this success. He’s a career .300/.335/.385 hitter in the minors. Even if he does keep hitting like that, Dykstra’s well below-average power isn’t enough to profile everyday at his current position, second base. He’ll post some plus run times and might fit in a speedy, multi-positional utility role if St. Louis starts moving him around the diamond and prepping him for such.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
I think Gant’s curve might be better than you’re giving him credit for. It has well above-average vertical movement based on the Pitch FX data.
Could be that it’s still loopy though, with poor spin
Almost 2600 RPMs, per Statcast. That’s above-average, so the spin rate’s not poor.
Cards trade relatively expensive, injury prone, high upside pitcher for the outside chance that at least one of three cheap probably nobodies blossoms. Braves hoping Garcia shows some value that can be flipped in July for a better prospect than the three they gave up. Next?
It’s wonderful reading quality analysis this quickly. I joined as a member. I would give the 21-year-old Dykstra the best chance at e significant MLB contribution, given 3 years more development time. Also liked his 17 doubles in 2016 play. Must learn to take walks, though.
I hadn’t heard of him before but I cringed when I saw his stat line. You might be able to get by with no power or no plate discipline but its hard to get by without either one. He’d have to get a 70 glove or speed to be a major leaguer IMHO.
I am a little disappointed that you missed the opportunity to title this post “Who is John Gant?”
As a Braves fan, having watched most of Gant’s outings last year I think the command is the biggest thing limiting his effectiveness. The Vulcan change is legit and the I liked the CB enough. But the fastball isn’t overpowering enough, and he seemed to nibble too much. So he constantly got behind and had too many runners on base. In starts where he spotted the fastball early he was fine b/c the secondary offerings played up. But as the numbers showed, he just didn’t do that enough and as Eric said that type command improvement doesn’t usually happen at 24.
Well I can think of two pitchers off the top of my head who did experience command improvement after 24: Jake Arrieta and Cliff Lee.
Now it could be that they stand out in my memory b/c they’re exceptions to the rule. But I suspect there are other lesser known pitchers who fit this description as well.
The Cards clearly saw something they think they can fix with Gant; the other two players appear to be just speculative acquisitions.
I do agree with you—from what little I’ve seen of Gant—that he has a decent curve and a very nice change up.
Wasn’t he once a high draft pick? There must be something there that intrigued three different organizations.
On the last point, Gant was a 21st round draft pick out of high school. Ellis is the player in this group who was a fairly high draft pick (third round).
My bad, you’re right. I guess I got him confused with somebody else. I could’ve sworn I heard an announcer on TV say he had been a high pick. Must be old age, lol.
I’m not sure the Cards see something they want to fix with Gant. Seems more like a gambit to acquire further depth and jettison Garcia to make room for Alex Reyes. If they can tweak something with Gant’s mechanics and he takes off, great…but doubt they are hanging their hat on that. He’s got a SUPER weird delivery and seems improbable its going to change at this point.
FWIW, as Braves fan I liked Gant and thought he had a shot as a back end starter on most teams. Not a great shot, but a chance. But with Atlanta’s other SP prospects coming through and the veterans acquired already it didn’t seem like he’d really get the chance. There’s already limited spots for Folty and Gant ain’t taking innings over Folty.
As a Cardinals fan, I’m not disappointed they moved Garcia. Just a little puzzled as how blah the return was. Sure, Garcia has his warts but he’s still a Top 10 LH SP. He’s only 30. If they hadn’t picked up the option, he likely would have gotten a M. Leake esque contract in FA. 4/60 maybe?
My point, Cardinals just wanted to rid themselves of Garcia and the fact they didn’t wait until the Winter Meetings, have a few more conversations w/ other clubs about a Garcia return just seems…well impatient to me. He has value, that’s evident. None of the 3 guys they got in return, would be Top 30 prospects in the Cardinals org. Very strange.
Leake got paid for being a reliable source of bulk league-average innings. I’m not convinced Garcia would’ve been in line for the same kind of contract – while his ceiling is higher, his injury history and ineffective 2016 make his floor far lower than Leake’s was presumed to be last offseason.
Also, not to nitpick, but it’s not difficult to come up with a list of a dozen lefty starters I’d rather have than Garcia. His upside is definitely Top 10 LH SP, but I wouldn’t say he IS a Top 10 LH SP.
Cardinals have Martinez, Wainwright, Reyes, Leake, Weaver, Wacha, Lynn, Gonzales and Lyons to fill out their rotation. They didn’t need Garcia and wouldn’t resign him when he becomes a free agent next year so they flipped him for some prospects. I’m assuming they are just loading up on assets to give them a better chance to acquire outfield help. Adam Eaton moved from Center to Right and had a tremendous defensive year. I think Grichuk could do the same. Cards need to trade for a legit center fielder if they miss out on Fowler
I’m a Cards’ fan, too. Garcia is not a top 10 LH SP unless you mean in the NL Central (or, now, East).
Top 10 LH SP?! Yeah, right! He finally stayed healthy all season for the first time in years and had by far the worst performance of his career. Nobody would’ve given him an AAV matching even the $12M he’ll make next year (at least not without incentives), and I’m surprised the Cardinals were able to get this much for him without eating a good chunk of his salary.
As a Cards fan, I really like this deal for the Braves. If Jaime bounces back, he’ll likely command a nicer haul than these prospects come July. The Braves, obviously, are hoping for another Shelby Miller situation.
Sure, but what are the odds that he is both effective and healthy in July? 20%? Less?
Well, I don’t think its exactly like Shelby situation b/c he was so much younger when they acquired him and had several more years of team control vs. Garcia. I think both deals involved buying “low” on a player relatively speaking but there were age and cost differences.
With Shelby, Roger Mcdowell (Pitching coach at time) I believe had some good track records with teaching guys a 2 seamer or sinker…which he did in 2015 with Shelby and helped build his value back up.
McDowell is no longer in ATL so not sure if the new coaching staff has specific “stuff” they think they can help Garcia with.
Since when is power needed at 2B? Sure, it’s been trending that way, but it’s not a necessity.