Searching for an R.A. Dickey Comp
According to excellent journalist Andy McCullough at the New Jersey Star-Ledger, the Mets are going to keep working on an extension with their newfound elder statesman ace, R.A. Dickey. The team elected to wait and see what the season would bring before putting pen to paper, which was a smart move considering that the organization owns an affordable $5 million option for the 2013 season. But now that he’s put up a Cy-worthy season, the discussion has changed. Making the conversation difficult is the lack of comparable players.
It’s not so surprising that a player that can deftly handle questions about baseball research, popular science fiction, and the craft of writing is unique, but those are not the dimensions that are relevant here. Instead, it’s Dickey’s particular combination of production, age, and skills that make him so difficult to place.
Let’s say we focus on his production. He has 9.4 WAR in the bank since 2010. Let’s set the bar 10% above and below nine wins, or just be easier about it and find the pitchers that have between eight and ten wins since the beginning of 2010. That search provides us with 23 names, from Justin Masterson to Matt Garza. For the purposes of finding contract comparisons, though, we’ll need just the names that signed free agent contracts since 2009 (or have at least six years of experience, suggesting that they are no longer in the arbitration structure). Now we have eight comparable players that are on free agent contracts:
| W | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | 2012 $* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 30 | 375.2 | 8.39 | 2.2 | 0.62 | 52.3% | 2.99 | 2.92 | 9.5 | $11.0 |
| R.A. Dickey | 34 | 545.1 | 6.67 | 2.18 | 0.73 | 51.6% | 2.97 | 3.47 | 9.4 | |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 34 | 548.1 | 7.16 | 2.18 | 0.9 | 48.1% | 3.23 | 3.59 | 9.4 | $10.0 |
| Edwin Jackson | 29 | 546 | 7.24 | 3.03 | 0.91 | 46.2% | 4.04 | 3.83 | 9 | $11.0 |
| Mark Buehrle | 35 | 562.2 | 4.73 | 1.98 | 0.9 | 44.5% | 3.9 | 3.99 | 8.9 | $14.5 |
| Chris Carpenter | 27 | 472.1 | 7.05 | 2.25 | 0.71 | 48.8% | 3.33 | 3.37 | 8.7 | $10.5 |
| Jake Peavy | 23 | 381.1 | 7.84 | 2.22 | 0.92 | 38.5% | 4.04 | 3.52 | 8.5 | $17.3 |
| Ryan Dempster | 31 | 539 | 8.32 | 3.36 | 1.04 | 44.9% | 4.04 | 3.92 | 8.3 | $13.0 |
| Tim Hudson | 44 | 565.1 | 5.92 | 2.61 | 0.67 | 59.1% | 3.18 | 3.75 | 8.3 | $9.3 |
For the purposes of this table, the 2012 salary is actually the average annual value of the pitcher’s current deal. The average of these eight average annual values is $12.1 million, but there are a few mitigating circumstances. Wainwright’s deal, for example, is part of a deal he signed while still under team control. Ryan Dempster signed his deal in 2009, which is either a long time ago or just a short while, depending on who you ask. Still, the list is decent — it’s full of players that are relative bargains, but have question marks, whether due to injury, age, or peripherals.
Speaking of age, it’s time to limit those comps to fit a 39-year-old free agent. Lest we eliminate everyone on the list, let’s set the age limit at 35. That leaves us with four players as old and as excellent as Dickey that are on free agent contracts: Hiroki Kuroda (36), Ryan Dempster (35), Chris Carpenter (37) and Tim Hudson (37). Their contracts average out to about $10.7 million a season.
Last but not least, our comps should be limited by skillset. So let’s limit our list down to the excellent knuckleballers over 35 that are currently on free agent contracts. Right.
And there you have what makes the extension negotiations between Dickey and the Mets a difficult affair. Perception of the knuckleball as a unique pitch must affect the discussion. Interestingly, though, three of the four elder comps above throw a fairly rare pitch themselves: the split-finger. Kuroda, Dempster, and Hudson all have good split-fingers, and as the pitch is known for both whiffs and ground balls, it’s probably helped extend their careers. Much like the knuckleball has done for Dickey. If you focus on that trio, a $10 million average annual salary begins to make a lot of sense.
R.A. Dickey has been excellent this year, and above-average for three years. But before the Mets can reward him for his work, they have to agree how much to weight his results, age, and specific skillset in the negotiations. If a three-year deal makes sense for both sides, they may end up using the three-year, $28 million deal Tim Hudson signed in 2010 as a beginning point. The two pitchers may not look the same on the mound, but they are similar enough in age and skillsets that it could make sense.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Good to know we can count to four….
But otherwise good article.
fixed and thanks!
Despite the Mets’ up-and-down season, which has been trending down down down for a while, watching and following R.A. has been a bright spot for a long-time fan of the erratic and frustrating Queens Crushers. Here’s to Robert Allen’s continued success in endeavors both on and off the field, and hoping that he does receive a fair multi-year deal.
So how much do the Mets factor in the perceived longevity of knuckleballers. Ordinarily, a longer deal for a 38 year old makes no sense, but what if he can do this until he’s 45? Perhaps something like the Wakefield deal with multiple mutual options, but with a higher salary given the difference in talent?
It’s a decent idea, but Wakefield had pitched longer for the Sox at the time that they came to that arrangement, and might therefore have had more loyalty to the organization. Dickey, who has struggled for so long, might prefer a ‘normal’ contract and the security it entails. After all, a three-year deal would take him to 43 already since he’s signed for next year.
The Hudson deal is without a doubt the best value any team in the MLB is getting for a veteran starter, and it isn’t even close. Mark Buehrle got $58m for 4 years and you think Dickey will sign for less than 10? Not a chance. The other guys on your list represent good value because of injury history/risk, or other uncertainty such as Kuroda adapting to the MLB, not because that is demonstrative of the market. Dickey signing for less than $12m per whether on a 3 or 4 year contract would be cause to fire his agent.
Disagree with some of this: there’s risk associated with Dickey associated with the unpredictability of his primary pitch. And Kuroda is mostly old, he’s been in America for long enough that his contract with the Yankees is representative. Sure, Hudson is great value, but 3/30 would not be cause to fire the agent, in my opinion. If Dickey ‘reverted’ to closer to a two-win guy like he was the last two years, that contract would make sense for both player and team.
Marcus, I think you’re underestimating the risk with Dickey. People think that knuckleball pitchers can pitch forever, but Wakefield wasn’t exactly at his peak for the last few years of his career, and Dickey is a max-effort knuckleballer. He throws it 80 mph, not 60 mph.
I think $10-12MM/year is about right, but I don’t see him getting much more than that if he wants a guaranteed third year.
Dickey has been outstanding in 2012, and his 2010 and 2011 seasons were good. But he’s born in 1974, and he relies almost exclusively on a pitch that almost no other professional baseball pitcher can throw successfully. I don’t know all the reasons why the knuckle ball is so rare, but it makes sense to me that a big factor is that it is extremely difficult to throw it well, consistently. Again, Dickey has been doing it well for ~550 innings and 3 seasons, and extremely well for the most recent 162 innings, but couldn’t it just as quickly disappear? And then what? With many aging pitchers, loss of velocity is a big concern that could lead to drastically reduced performance. For a pitcher of any age, injury concerns are always there. For a 40-year-old pitcher throwing the craziest pitch in the game, I would have a very difficult time offering him multiple seasons of guaranteed money in the $10million/year range. His $5million team option should get picked up without much thought, but beyond that I wouldn’t promise him anything.
Wonder if Jeremy Lin informs this discussion? THudson is a good base. On top of that, how do you quantify Dickey’s value to the Mets based upon sentiments of Mets fans/ box office value?
As a Met fan I love Mr.Dickey but we have to be careful on any LT contracts to 38 yr olds. At the same time ,I want to see RA get what he deserves. Extending his contract for 4(including option) more yrs could be painful to a team that needs to avoid these contracts. Tough spot