Sheets and the New Market
Rumors have been floating around for most of the offseason that former Milwaukee Brewer Ben Sheets is looking for a contract that would eclipse 10 million dollars before incentives were included. Unfortunately for Ben – I’m a big fan, as he was the first true ace pitcher for whom I watched nearly ever start – he (or more likely, his agent) is likely not going to get what he’s seeking.
Ben Sheets, during his prime with the Brewers, was inarguably an excellent pitcher. After a rough rookie year, Sheets settled in as the Brewers ace for the next 7 years. Injuries were an issue, but he still put up at least 140 IP in all but one season, and when he was on the field, he was great. He has a career 3.56 FIP and totaled a whopping 29.8 wins from 2002-2008, an average of 4.3 wins per season.
Unfortunately, just as the Brewers were making a playoff run that will be remembered for ages in Milwaukee, Sheets injured his elbow, and ended up missing the 2008 playoffs and all of the 2009 season. Now, he’s ready to return, but given his injury history and the fact that he missed a year, what kind of performance can we expect from him?
Every time Sheets has returned from injury (every year since 2005, basically), he’s pitched well the next season. His worst year since was 2007, where he still posted a 4.11 FIP and was worth 2.2 wins. He’s going to strike guys out – a 7 K/9 is probably the lower bound for him, and his control is excellent – a 3 BB/9 is probably the upper bound. The question mark for Sheets isn’t so much performance, but how many innings he can pitch.
Fan projections have him at 132 IP for 2010. CHONE has him at 114. These two projections have him at 2.7 WAR and 2.0 WAR respectively. Even if you generously project him for 150, you get something in the 2.6-3.1 WAR range as a projection for Sheets. Given the roughly $3.5M/WAR figure we’ve seen this offseason, a fair range for a dollar amount would be 9-11 million dollars, and that’s at the very top end of the projections.
A more likely range for Sheets’s production is 2.0-2.5 WAR, and based on how the offseason has gone for Rich Harden – better and more recent production, actually pitched last year – and Erik Bedard – no contract yet and limited rumors surrounding him – he’d be lucky to get that $3.5M/WAR rate. Harden’s contract – 1 year, $7.5M – came in at
roughly 3M/WAR by CHONE, and that’s only projecting 132 innings for Harden. Based on this, Sheets could be looking at something closer to a contract worth $5M or $6M.
Sheets could get something in the 9 million dollar range, but that’s only after incentives are included. With the number of openings for expensive starting pitchers closing as clubs inch closer and closer to their maximum payrolls, Sheets will have to face the realities of the new market and settle for closer to half of what he’s looking for.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
The Mets should hop on Sheets. It’s a perfect fit for both.
Yeah the Mets need another question mark…
a question mark would be better than what they have, and what’s left.
They should sign Sheets, Bedard, AND Smoltz.
I’d imagine that teams are somewhat risk-averse when it comes to highly injury prone starting pitchers, meaning that the usual market value of $/WAR is discounted by the risk of a lower number of games started. I think this risk aversion makes sense, because having a starting pitcher who’s constantly shuttling back and forth from the DL disrupts the rest of the rotation and is a distraction for the team.
The Mets do need to jump on Sheets. They also should sign a guy like Washburn to eat innings as well. Sheets would be a perfect number 2 guy behind Sanatana and then an extra pitcher like Washburn would be able to keep Ollie in reserves incase Sheets or someone else (maine) goes down.
I’m wondering why pitchers trying to rebuild their value don’t sign contracts with the Padres and why the Padres refuse to offer them contracts. If Sheets can’t get a multi-year deal he should Petco Park and the NL West would make him look awesome.
if ever there was a situation to overpay for a pitcher it’s this one. High upside, late in the off-season so a slightly limited number of suitors, a desperate need for a starter and it’s only a one-year deal. If you whiff on Ben Sheets, he’s gone at the end of the year. Barring injury, you get a guy who is pitching for a long-term contract. He could be this year’s Bobby Abreu.
I don’t think his list of suitors is “slightly limited.” About half the league has expressed interest to some extent. It’s just a question of what $$$ are attached to that interest. I suspect he’ll find someone (SEA is my guess) who’ll give him a 1-yr deal in the $7-8M range. B/c Safeco would be a favorable place to pitch, the M’s might even be able to get him to accept a lower base by stocking it with even more incentives.
Why not offer him a VERY highly incentive-laden contract with very achievable targets? Most teams seem to not want to get burned and see Sheets go down in April for the rest of the season. So why won’t a team offer him a base of $1 mil, with something like a $3mil bonus for 50 IP and $3mil bonuses for each 50 IP after that. He’d end up costing $7mil/100 IP, $10mil/150 IP or $13mil/200 IP, and if you’re getting 200 innings from Sheets, it’s very likely he’ll be worth the 3-4 WAR.
If Sheets thinks he’s healthy, why would he not take that offer? It’s very likely he’d make close to his $10mil target, even with continued injuries, and it would provide some security at a fair price to whatever team he signed for.
This type of deal makes a whole lot more sense than Sheets settling for a $7mil/1 year, that it increasingly looks like he’ll get.
It doesn’t make sense from Sheets point of view. Why would he take a contract with only 1 million guaranteed when he could get 7?
I may be entirely off base here, but doesn’t the player’s union frown upon heavily incentive-laden deals? An innings-based structure certainly leaves the player at risk of meddling by the team (although, of course, playing time seems to be the most common criteria for these types of deals).
As someone who designs incentive systems for a living, I’ve always been surprised at how infrequently meaningful incentive-based contracts are used in MLB — it would seem ripe for them.
I think Sheets can expect to command a better contract than Harden (and definitely Bedard) because he has been a much more durable pitcher than Harden. At least Sheets can point to several seasons where he has logged more than 200 innings, something Harden can’t do. In fact, even though 2009 was a total loss, Sheets has logged more innings than Harden going back to 2006.
The risk with Sheets is that you might only get 100 innings. You can probably expect 150. You might get lucky and get 200.
The risk with Harden is you might only get 40 IP. You can expect 100. You might get lucky and get 140.
The risk just seems higher with Harden.
I’d have to say there certainly would be some question about his performance. This was major elbow surgery, and you just don’t know how it will affect him.
Ben Sheets would be a nice fit in Seattle, he would be backed up by the Mariners awesome defense, while pitching in a pitchers ballpark, for the most part. Could you imagine that rotation?
Felix Hernandez
Cliff Lee
Ben Sheets
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ian Snell
Ben Sheets has also been with Jack Z before, so that could be an advantage for Z & the M’s.
I was hoping the Tigers would’ve gave him a look instead of spending the money on Valverde. A front four of Verlander, Porcello, Scherzer and Sheets could’ve possibly made them the favorites in the dismal Central despite losing Granderson.
Who knows where he ends up but if a team can get him for 1 year I think no matter where he goes that team is going to come out good.