Shohei Ohtani Has Narrowed His List
For the most part, as far as available players care, teams are separated from one another by money, and by available playing time. Available players tend to chase the most money, and/or the opportunities that will allow them to most often see the field. This is part of what’s made the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes so perplexing. Every team in baseball could give him playing time, and he’s given no indication that he cares about money. I mean, he can’t not care about money at all, but it doesn’t seem to be a motivating factor. He’s a baseball player. A great one! If he’s good enough, there’ll be plenty of money there in the end.
So it’s been unclear what, exactly, Ohtani wants. I don’t just mean for us, in public. Even within the industry — the very industry Ohtani’s attempting to join — some people have had to throw up their hands. The entire process has been so shrouded in mystery. Even when Ohtani’s representation recently sent out that questionnaire, teams didn’t know quite how to fill it out. Teams haven’t known how Ohtani is leaning. Teams haven’t known how best to make their cases.
At last, this is all gaining some clarity. As of Sunday, we all know more than we used to. Ohtani’s final decision will necessarily be made within just the next few weeks. And it would appear he’d like to play out west.
Sunday’s first news was the big news: Ohtani’s camp told the Yankees they wouldn’t be signing him. Many had picked the Yankees as the favorites, given the quality of the team and the size of the market, but it turns out that second part isn’t actually a plus, in this instance.
Cashman said that Ohtani’s reps told him they were very impressed with team’s presentation, but no matter how good it was, the Yankees couldn’t make themselves West Coast or a smaller market.
— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) December 3, 2017
After news came out about the Yankees, the same news came out about the Red Sox. Ohtani’s been narrowing down his field of teams, and other teams reportedly out include the Twins and the A’s. According to Ken Rosenthal, there’s a strong sense Ohtani ends up on the west coast, and Mike Berardino lent some support, while adding that the Cubs could be an exception. Jeff Passan noted that the Giants and the Mariners are among the Ohtani finalists. Even as I write this, more is coming in; the Pirates are out of the mix, and so are the Mets, Brewers, and Diamondbacks.
This will only continue to evolve, and for the time being, we don’t know if Ohtani wants an actual small market, or just a market smaller than New York. We also don’t know exactly how badly he’d prefer to play on the west coast, so any guesses would amount to speculation, but this does seem to be pointing more and more to the Giants or Mariners. The greater Los Angeles market is gigantic. The Padres are supposed to be getting better, but they’re still in the middle of a rebuild. The Giants made the playoffs as recently as last season, while the Mariners have hung around on the fringes of relevance. The Mariners also have the obvious recent history of folding in and leaning on Japanese talent.
But that doesn’t mean the Padres can be excluded. It doesn’t mean the Dodgers or Angels can be excluded. The Cubs seemingly can’t be excluded, and we know the Rangers have been pursuing Ohtani for a long time. Ohtani has whittled the list of candidates, but we probably shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. We still have only a little more information than we used to, with regard to what Ohtani wants. He might not mind playing for a last-place team. He might, alternatively, mind that quite a lot. He might strongly prefer to end up in the American League. He might be okay with what a National League team would have to offer.
The biggest specific development is that Ohtani isn’t going to the Yankees. The biggest general development is that Ohtani is wasting little time in moving ahead to his decision day. This might not drag out beyond the next week, during which Ohtani will be meeting with the finalists. Even if we don’t have an answer by the weekend, the answer shouldn’t come too far after that. Ohtani is beginning to reveal his preferences, and the teams still in the mix all want him badly. If this isn’t a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a big-league organization, it’s at least once-in-a-generation. When Ohtani makes his choice, the league is going to change as a consequence.
If Ohtani goes to the Giants, maybe that increases the pressure on the Dodgers to go get Giancarlo Stanton. Or, maybe the Giants get Ohtani and Stanton, both, with Ohtani allowing them to potentially avoid an upcoming cliff. All of a sudden, the Giants would look like contenders again. If Ohtani goes to the Mariners, he could help them avoid an upcoming cliff of their own. He could almost singlehandedly make up for what’s long been a disappointing player-development system. Really, Ohtani would make a huge difference anywhere. He could push the Padres’ window forward a season or two. He could give the Angels a No. 1 starter to pair with Mike Trout. He could make the Dodgers almost invincible. He could make the *Cubs* almost invincible. As soon as Ohtani signs with someone, he’s going to be one of the five or ten most valuable players in the game, in terms of performance and salary, if not in terms of performance alone. This isn’t quite like an ordinary citizen landing a winning Powerball ticket, but it’s a little something like an ordinary citizen winning The Amazing Race.
Every single baseball team has its strengths and weaknesses. Every single baseball team has a plan for becoming and remaining competitive. There is nothing in the game more valuable than a young and cost-controlled star-level player. Shohei Ohtani is one of those, and, in the best-case scenario, you could say he’s almost two of those, if he can keep hitting as well as he has. Of course Ohtani is a risk, and of course he could disappoint or get injured. Bryce Harper could disappoint. Luis Severino could get injured. Within the next few weeks, an unprecedented blessing is going to fall into some organization’s lap. We still don’t know which it’s going to be, but we’re starting to figure it out. Baseball isn’t going to be the same, on the other side. For a handful of reasons.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Can someone please explain to me what the difference is between a West vs East Coast team is for Ohtani? It is purely being physically closer to Japan?
As someone whose lived on both coasts the answer is quite simple: The East Coast sucks.
but maybe ohtani isn’t a wimp about snow?
Oh! And the east coast has seasons 🙂
Okay, I have lived in Ontario all my life and quite frankly, having seasons does not seem like a really big selling point when compared to constant summer.
But how do you tell that time is even passing?
By the number of games my team has played?
Watches.
Oh, and clocks ‘n stuff.
By taking a 2 hour drive to the mountains.
30 year periods are easy to tell, that’s how long it’s been since the Dodgers hoisted the trophy
Maggie…I agree. Contrary to popular belief, seasons are just as important to west coasters as much as anyone else, that’s why we choose the best one. (I’ve lived on the east coast as well as the west coast.)
There are things about home (east coast) that can never be replaced but when I hear comments like, ‘west coast people are soft.’ or ‘they’re there bc they can’t handle it.’, i find that ridiculous. Unless you like the cold/snow over warmth and summer, why think negatively on those who choose the latter? healthy vs. sick? i choose healthy. rich vs. poor? uh…rich, please! (extreme examples but you catch my drift.)
Now if the baseball gods can have Stanton and Ohtani in a Giants uniform at a reasonable cost, that would be awesome.
West Coast has seasons, too. The three good ones.
I live on the west coast now. The west coast blows.
So does the east coast. I’m a fan of the middle. Not many baseball teams there, though.
He’s from northern Japan, Iwate Prefecture, where it snows. In fact, the forecast for Tuesday-Wednesday is 4-6 inches.
As someone who lives on East Coast and visits West Coast from time to time, I agree.
Surely you jest
West coast is full of crybaby, pansy lib-tards
IMO*, it is probably as much to do with the cultural aspects of it as the physical distance. Note the discussion about the market alongside the west coast.
*This is literally just my opinion. Wait for information from a real, live journalist instead of sadtrombone in the comments section.
maybe he likes Mexican food
This is a good reason tbh.
Unless you live in NYC, I’m pretty certain most types of food are better on the west coast than the east.
Or Chicago… I’ve been to LA a few times and Chicago food is just as good (other than sea food, of course)
Mexican food? Seattle is boned. (Yes I know about LCDO, okay.)
worlds better in Seattle than anywhere East Coast or Midwest. Still several tiers below the Southwest though.
There’s some damn good stuff in Chicago at least, be careful before writing off too much stuff
You made me hungry dammit
I think the fact that it is closer and there are large asian populations there. I think his top priorities are where he’s most comfortable and where he can be the best player.
There are large Asian populations on the east coast and other parts of the US as well. But, the only real concentration of Japanese populations in the US is on the west coast.
The demography of Japanese-American populations in the US is pretty interesting. You’ve got Honolulu easily at #1. You’ve got LA easily at #2. You’ve got San Francisco, Oakland, and Seattle somewhere behind them. And then it’s basically nonexistent after that.
We don’t think about it very much but there are huge Chinese-American populations, and much smaller but still sizeable Korean-American populations. Comparatively there is very little in the way of Japanese-Americans anywhere outside of Hawaii, with the West Coast having the only other populations of note.
New York surely has a bigger Japanese population than Seattle, so don’t know what you’re talking about
Cheeknbut is correct. NYC has more than twice the Japanese population of Seattle according to the 2000 census numbers.
Per capita matters.
…good god, how did I make /that/ mistake. Right, Seattle might only have a third as many Japanese population-wise, but they’re 1/16th population of NYC, give or take a bit.
Actually, it might not matter to Ohtani if they are geographically concentrated. But they aren’t. They’re all over the place in NYC.
This may be due to the fact that Japanese-Americans have been here a long, long time. Wouldn’t be surprised if Japanese-American population in the US was much more dispersed than, say, Korean-American population (and certainly more than recent immigrant waves from southeast asian countries).
It’s also worth noting that Japanese-Americans have had a cultural presence in Seattle forever. It’s somewhat imprinted on the character of the city, whereas in NYC that’s not the case.
Of course, who knows if any of this matters. He could have ruled out NYC simply because he doesn’t like the pace of the city (another “culture of the city” argument, but a different sort of culture).
The only way it would matter is if we were concerned whether it was more likely that Ohtani encountered a Japanese person among the populace when walking down a random city street.
Which, of course, is to say that “per capita” does not matter at all.
Why? The only way per capita matters is if we were concerned whether Ohtani encountered a Japanese face when walking down a random city street.
Which, of course, is to say that it doesn’t matter at all.
Or if he wants to live near Japanese-Americans, institutions catering to Japanese-Americans, Japanese food, etc.
Besides, don’t rule out the possibility that seeing random Japanese people on the street matters to Ohtani. While discrimination and structural factors do play a role in ethnic residential segregation, so does preference.
Why? Its not like he has all that much free time during the season. He can live anywhere in the off season. Pretty sure there is a Japanese Club and communities where many Japanese reside near the Japanese school. Add in tourists from Japan which are significant and the quality of Japanese restaurants and NY is hard to beat outside of Hawaii
Of course no state and municipal taxes in Seattle, Texas and minimal in Chicago compared to California and NYC so maybe its taxes
Why would you use the 2000 census when the 2010 census data is available? For Asian population details see https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-11.pdf
One historical factor, the West Coast Japanese-American population was all uprooted during WW2, and the (smaller) East Coast population was not.
People who went back into the West did it often in clusters for safety among neighbors who had shown their colors. East coast populations reflect longer natural dispersion.
Jetsy, I’m starting to think you’re the person a few cubicles down from me. The facts you know seem like they’re part of the same “family” as the facts I know.
Did you see how they treated Hideki irabu? Even how they treated Matsui towards the end? It was awful
Far and away I think his priority is to be the best player. Guy thinks he’s Clemens
It’s a 3 hour longer plane ride to Japan. 12 hours from the West coast and 15 from the East coast, or something like that.
Ten hours coming to the U.S., because of the prevailing wind. Also, you can make that flight non-stop, not sure you can do that from the East coast.
It’s almost 10 hours from Tokyo to LA on the fastest flight (Korean Air). Add four hours for the east coast. The Big difference is time zones. At noon Monday in Seattle/SF/SD/LA it’s 5AM Tuesday in Tokyo. You’re crossing the international date line.
I just looked on Google for flights from LAX to Toyko and from O’Hare to Tokyo. There was one direct flight from Chicago, and it was 13:15. There were two direct flights from LAX, 12:20 and 12:40.
I really don’t see this distance thing as a driving factor. When you are already talking about the distance from Japan to the continental United States, the relative distances just don’t really matter that much. You’re not popping back into Japan when you get an off day.
It’s quaint that you think Ohtani would be flying commercial.
As filthy rich as he would be in the future,
Ohtani’s salary this season was around $2.5M.
He will be making around half a mil for another three years.
That is first class money, not trans-pacific G4 money.
You are forgetting about endorsements. It’s fanciful to think Ohtani is going to mix with the hoi polloi. All the down votes in the world ain’t gonna alter that truth in the slightest.
It wouldn’t be three hours longer. A direct flight would follow the great circle route (over Canada).
Doesn’t matter – Japan is on the other side of the international date line. Take off one day, land in another. Check those time zones.
The only person who can give you the real answer to that question is Ohtani himself.
Physical proximity plus maybe getting to play your games around lunch Japan time instead of at 5am?
If he has family staying in Japan, particularly older family members, a direct flight to the west coast is much easier than getting to the east coast.
Couple shots in the dark.
isn’t player fatigue/rest a thing for West Coast players who travel to the Eastern time zone? Would this be even worse for Ohtani?
He’s not commuting from Japan, why would it be worse?
As someone who is only lived on the East Coast up and down the shoreline, it sucks. The fans treat the players worse, and the media treats two players even more poorly. Plus, Fenway right field is huge, and Yankee land is the evil empire
he doesn’t have in-depth knowledge of cities, just general impressions. :shrug:
If only Tupac and Biggie could chime in on this debate…
About 90 minutes flying time on a direct flight, presumably in first class.
Large Japanese population in NY
Also, he only has to stay in his teams city for 110 days a year.
The other difference is ST is in Arizona for WC teams and not Miami.
East Coast AL teams have smaller parks than WC teams. This could be an issue for a player who needs to put up good numbers as a pitcher to get a big deal. Presumably what he offers as a DH has comparatively little value in a future contract unless he becomes a future David Ortiz which is unlikely
Time zones matter for calls/facetime back home. 3 hours can be a big deal if family can talk at 10pm or 1am.
What about Oakland? They are the only west coast team with a DH spot open.
They’re reportedly out
Interesting, because the A’s would seem to check all the boxes that the information we have so far indicates are important: West coast, Japanese population, small market. Plus the DH possibility.
Maybe he was scared away by having to be taught how to play first base.
there was also top-level facilities. Does that describe the Oakland Coliseum?
He’s out on them also, been announced.
That DH spot sure as hell at ain’t open. That’s Khris Davis’ spot now. (Of course, they’d likely do something else with him if they thought they could get Ohtani)
I always thought that Oakland was one of the least likely landing spots. Something about “it’s in a region prone to severe droughts, but when it does our locker room might be filled with raw sewage. and our ownership trades away players whenever they get expensive…” is tough to overcome.
I think the trade risk is the real problem for Oakland. If he has strong preferences for where he wants to play, why go where it’s most likely you’ll be shipped of to the highest bidder?
I have a feeling he will be playing the outfield and Cruz will be dh’ing.
God, I hope he plays the field. That would be awesome.
The extra work involved might make him less of a pitcher and/or hitter, though.
Would’ve loved to have him on the Yankees. Probably better for baseball that he’s going somewhere else though. The New York media would have ripped him the second he started struggling, and a rookie manager might’ve been convinced to pull the plug on the two-way experiment. Can’t wait to see him play, wherever he is.
I’m of the impression no manager will have the ability to pull the plug on it. I.e he will have a contract or agreement that gtd he will play both
It won’t be in any written contract, because MLB has made it abundantly clear that Ohtani will be signing a standard uniform contract just the same as an Dominican teenage international free agent. (Even among veteran free agents, I don’t know if a playing time guarantee has any precedent or if the CBA would allow it to be in a written contract.)
I can see that a team’s pitch would include the understanding that he’ll at least be allowed a chance to hit. That’s where it gets tough though: what does a contending AL team do if it does allow Ohtani to DH at least a few times per week but after half a season he’s something like a 75 wRC+ hitter? At some point, I’d expect a borderline clubhouse revolt from other players if there’s perception that special treatment is costing the team wins and keeping more deserving players from getting playing time.
That’s one line of thought for why an NL team make more sense for him. He’s guaranteed to get at least some PA’s when he’s the starting pitcher. Also, the hitting production threshold for being something like the 2nd pinch hitter off an NL bench is quite a bit lower than it is for getting regular DH appearances on an AL team.
On the other hand, a 75 wRC+ for a DH might be competitive on the Angels. If he drives in lots of runners, he’ll be fine.
I think it would be hilarious if a few weeks or months from now, Ohtani lets slip that he would have considered the Yankees but for the fact they have a new, unproven manager. What would NYC media make of Cashman letting Giardi go if that came out (whether it was true or not)?
” *Cubs* “? Why the asterisks? Were they on steroids?
Guessing the Angels
Love to see him with Trout. But if NY was rejected for being too large a market, how can he be interested in LA?
New Yorkers care about the Yankees. No one in LA cares about the Angels.
No in LA cares about the Angels, but they might if the team was actually in Los Angeles.
The media environment in the two cities is pretty different. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a local sportswriter in LA who isn’t Plaschke write a ‘Clayton Kershaw is a choker’ article, for example. Imagine what the NY media would do with his career.
The media in LA covers athletes in a universally nice way, especially Dodgers and Lakers.
The Angels are probably more comparable to the Athletics than the Dodgers in terms of market. Being ~35 miles south of downtown LA, Orange County is essentially the suburbs. Lots of sprawl, but not comparable in terms of density or the smell of urine.
There is probably no better place in the country to live than on the ocean in south Orange County, which is really the Angels market.
That was just something Cashman said; it doesn’t seem accurate with LA and Chicago on the list.
I would think those teams that are out and have international pool money left are going to be in on the Braves’ ex-prospects pretty soon.
Ohtani isn’t likely choosing, more likely that MLB is. MLB decides when and how he gets his money.
He’ll go to the club that makes the most sense for (1) TV money, (2) expanding/growing foreign market appeal (which again is about TV money). As a side benefit, his appeal might be able to prop up an otherwise struggling franchise if MLB would rather do that than move the club.
As all have noted, Seattle makes a lot of sense, but so does LAA or maybe SF. Interesting that Oakland is out. As good as he is likely to be, chances are decent that Ohtani (as the game’s biggest international star during a period where MLB really needs to expand into foreign markets) is going to have a much bigger impact on MLB TV money than any club’s record. The money involved is massive, and is unlikely to turn on what a few GMs say about PAs or the local cuisine.
And, in this conspiracy theory of yours, just how does MLB have this omnipotent ability to force Ohtani to decide where to go?
gotta be true, he heard it on Infowars. There’s no state like the deep state.
Everyone knows and agrees that Ohatani’s extension will come down to what the MLB will allow.
Playing the ‘conspiracy theory’ taboo is a logical fallacy- MLB is certainly the primary organization in charge of what I said above, ‘when and how he gets his money.’
everyone knows….except the 44 down voters. Oops….45
If they could do that, why would they put up so many barriers to discourage him from going to the MLB?
MLB didn’t put up barriers- he is coming to MLB.
Why does everyone assume that the Braves- and every club in the league- make under the table ‘understandings’ with international free agents, but the MLB would never do so? Just every club in MLB but not the organization itself?
The Ohtani-to-MLB deal is really big for MLB marketing, a bit needle-mover in revenue and TV reach. It is very well demonstrated that the negotiations about this process have gone on, at a high level, for quite some time. It is very likely that the biggest party in this major deal is driving the boat.
Quite a few fangraphs commentators on other recent articles popularly believe that MLB has ‘co-opted’ the MLBPA – MLB’s ability to steer one transaction for a player with limited leverage is much easier than steering the whole union.
Just consider the Chris Paul move to LA in the NBA- there is plenty of precedent for a pro-league to step in and micromanage the move of a major player.
He would have been in the MLB 2 years ago if the league didn’t change its posting and international FA rules.
And your argument can’t even keep out of its own way. If Otani’s marketing value is in fact that important to the MLB, then he has all the leverage because all he needs to do is turn back to Japan to make MLB lose all that value for nothing. MLB wouldn’t have dared to set a cap on his salary.
That MLB refused to waive its international signing requirements for Otani is a clear sign that the MLB organization itself doesn’t really care whether Otani or any other young Japanese star heads to the MLB or not.
Why don’t you stick to one cuckoo conspiracy theory? Each additional incredible theory you advocate chips away at what little credibility you already had. Also, if you forget about all but one, you can use that time to gather actual evidence.
ThomServo,
That might be the stupidest, most ignorant, conspiritardy, comment in the history of Fangraphs!
BRAKING NEWS: The Braves are out of it too. They may as well give that bonus money to Tookie Toucaint. hee hee
In America, the news never brakes.
In Russia, news breaks you.
That’s probably the most correct statement I’ve ever seen on here, and it has nothing to do with calling out his typo. News in this country is basically Keanu Reeves trying to drive a bus full of explosives.
If you want to keep hitting refresh on the latest updates, here’s a link:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/mariners-giants-will-meet-with-shohei-ohtani-yankees-out-of-the-running.html
I’m pretty surprised the Padres are still on the list. I know they had beefed up their international presence in Asia lately but this is something else. But if the reporting is true that Ohtani may want to be in a slightly smaller market, then it makes sense the Padres are still there.
Latest is Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Mariners, Padres, and maybe the Cubs. No word either way on the Rangers.
My money is on the Mariners at this point, but we all thought the Yankees were a favorite so who really knows.
Thank you for this. Getting info that I see no where else.
MLBTR is the best for this. They literally just aggregate content from a hundred journalists’ twitter feeds and a hundred websites/newspapers and then write it up in a digestible way so you don’t have to click on all of the links. Every so often they write “where will ____ go in free agency” articles or other features I’m not so interested in, but the main selling point for me is the news aggregation.
Pretty sure the Padres are still on the list because, like almost everyone on this side of the Pacific, Ohtani and his people have forgotten there’s a team in San Diego to turn down.
Cute. Except that he’s meeting with the Padres right away . . .
His agent lives in San Diego. His team had a 10 year working agreement with the Padres, and he was working out at their Spring Training facility the last two Springs. His former team trainer now works for the Padres. The Padres former executive who set up the working agreement now consults for the Nippon-Ham Fighters.
Update. Rangers are in. Looks like Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Mariners, Padres, Cubs, and Rangers as the finalists.
With the exception of the Padres and the Yankees, this looks kind of like the lists most of us were coming up with.
Ohtani is potentially such a revenue changer, that he could factor in to whether Oakland (out, I know), Seattle, or San Diego relocate, or helping a sale that avoids a step backwards in club valuations.
Recent analogous situations include Chris Paul to the Clippers (helping greatly with their viability struggles and eventual sale) or Anthony Davis to the Pelicans- or Kobe/Lonzo to the Lakers, Ewing to NY, Eli to NY as other examples of situations where normal transaction dynamics were overwhelmed by larger market actors ensuring a potential big revenue player went to a market that would suit the league.
With Miami potentially relocating to Mexico, expansion internationally is high on MLB’s revenue plan- largely for TV markets. It might make sense to check with San Diego, Seattle and Oakland and see if Ohtani could boost their outlook- I’m surprised Oakland is out of it so quickly.
Ohtani, moreso than most every other player in baseball, has potential to make something very good for MLB happen on one of these issues- maybe facilitates a Clippers-esq sale, maybe keeps a team in the pacific northwest, maybe expands TV revenue in asian markets much more from the PCT time slot than EST. Ultimately, these macro dynamics – particularly with clubs that may be sold, moved and international tv money- matter alot to MLB and it’s partners.
This is ridiculous speculation. Why would the M’s consider moving? They have a relatively new, publicly funded stadium in the fastest growing large city in the country. They have a readily available fan base that is young and affluent with highly disposable incomes. It wasn’t that long ago that they were among the top teams in attendance and unless I’m mistaken they own the cable network that carries their games. I just don’t see a better situation out there for the M’s than the one that they’re in. Same for the Padres despite their recent lack of success.
MLB merchandising revenue and non-local TV deals are pooled. The only effect Ohtani could have on the revenues of one team are stadium attendance, making the playoffs, and local television deals/carriage fees. Even the most extreme estimate of the difference one player could make would be about 30-40 Million dollars in revenue out of the 3,4,5 hundred million or so each team earns in a year.
All this speculation is lots of fun (I’m partaking too), but its ultimately fruitless. We have no idea what his preferences are, and all the guesses are mere speculation.
You might say, “I’m surprised the Padres are in the running because they aren’t good”, but San Diego is one of the more desirable places in the entire world to live.
You might say “The Giants/Mariners are now the obvious favorites”, but both Seattle and San Francisco are overpriced corporate hellholes… just like NYC and Boston.
You might say “I’m not surprised the Yankees and Boston are out because they have vicious media environments”, but the lifestyle in those cities (density, public transit, etc. will be much closer to how he lived in Japan than anything the West Coast could offer.
Does the Rangers’ 3.5 Mil vs. the Dodgers 300K matter? WE DONT KNOW
Does he want high population/density/japanese population etc. or low? WE DON’T KNOW
Does he want to be the best player on the team? Does he want the team to be good now? Does he want the team to be good in 4 years? Does he want to play in a particular stadium? Is he interested in baseball history? Does he like it to be 70 degrees outside? 50 degrees? varying temperatures?…
WE DONT KNOW
My jellybeans are currently on the Phillies because its feels more good to be right when everyone else is wrong, than it feels bad to be wrong when some other people are right.
Considering that the Phillies are out, this will not be very satisfying for you.
The Padres are the least likely IMO, so if others agree with me you can pick that one safely.
I’ll agree with your “we don’t know”, but Ohtani is from the rural north, a small town 300 miles from Tokyo, in Iwate Prefecture, whose population of 1.3 million is slightly smaller than San Diego.
Please please please let all 30 questionnaires leak. What a treasure trove of insight for us fans that would be.
I agree that they’d be interesting, but I wouldn’t count on it happening.
If these questionnaires leaked, it would be extremely obvious that the leaks came from CAA Sports (Ohtani’s agent) and probably mean that teams would never again give CAA Sports written answers like these for any of its clients.
Club’s generally cannot dictate the terms of their engagement to CAA, particularly not on a good hunch about a leak. It would be like trying to dictate terms to the big 4 due to a probably leak, or ESPN.
Boy, Yankee fans were absolutely SURE they were getting Ohtani, weren’t they? Yikes.
I know several Yankees fans who had already penciled him into the rotation. Made my day to learn they’re among the first teams out. I’m loving this Ohtani guy already.
So basically what I gathered from this article is that Ohtani is coming to Philadelphia
It’s Always Ohtani in Philadelphia?
He wants to visit, not play for the Phillies.
I wouldn’t mind him going to Seattle. Not a Mariners fan, but King Felix deserves at least 1 postseason appearance in his career.
DiPoto can always find a way to avoid the playoffs, Ohtani or none.
If he is worried about Beane’s propensity for the trade, he should really be terrified of Dipoto.
It might be too late. It’s not clear that King Felix will ever be King again… 🙁
Although not on the West Coast, one of the most intriguing mid market teams would be Baltimore – although the Orioles are probably the only team dumb enough to not even make an offer.
The actual only team dumb enough not to make an offer is the Marlins, who aren’t in because… They decided they can’t afford the $20 million posting fee. $20 is too much to pay for $150 million of surplus value, apparently.
Apparently, three teams declined to respond to the questionnaire.
I would love to find out who the other two teams are, but I’m gonna guess.
Here’s a tracker: https://sports.yahoo.com/shohei-ohtani-tracker-favorite-team-015143749.html
The Orioles, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, KC, and Phillies are unknown. We know that Cincy and Houston, Cleveland, and Philly all were interested to some degree. That suggests the two left are Colorado and Baltimore.
No sir, no one knows that the Phillies were interested at all and all available evidence points to the Phillies having zero interest which is perfectly in line with the Phillies having never – yes never – tried to sign a player out of Japan in this posting process.
Ohtani made it clear though that Philadelphia is a city high on his map of the USA and the Phillies could have signed him if they had wanted to.
Now I know what people meant when they used to say the Japanese are inscrutable.
And the winner for most unnecessarily racist comment goes to…
It would be really good for baseball if Ohtani went to Seattle. The Mariners would be competitive enough to make the playoffs, which they haven’t done since 2001. He would be received well by the fans in Seattle, and the AL west would have another team to beat.
It would potentially help keep the Mariners viable in Seattle. Nintendo had to offload 90% of their shares to a minority owner John Stanton last year, one of the least wealthy and viable ownership groups in one of the less enthused MLB baseball markets.
MLB is keen to avoid another low price purchase like the Braves sale in 2007.
Shocked to see that Cleveland hasn’t been ruled out yet. Along with the Rockies (who reportedly aren’t interested), they have the lowest amount of money to offer. But it got me thinking… they’re a small-market contender with a good core, they have no japanese stars, they have a good track record recently with developing international players (Salazar, Ramirez, Meija). Does anybody else think they have an outside shot?
As an Indians fan I’ve been waiting for them to be knocked out. I can’t imagine what kind of pitch they could have given with them having 6 quality starters. They probably had to pitch a reliever/DH combo which couldn’t have gone over that well from the understanding that he wants to start. (They could have always tried to convince him that he’d get a spot in the rotation but I don’t think Ohtani would buy that.)
All thry’d have to do is trade a starter, no? Just promise Otani a spot and shop someone to the teams that missed out on Shohei.
And even if they somehow can’t trade any of their starters, they’re still better off with Otani in the rotation/hitting and that 5th starter in the pen than without Otani.
The Indians’ FO is pretty quiet, and I doubt Otani or his agents are going to say what teams are out. If the Indians are out, I doubt we would even know.
Otani is better than anyone in their rotation outside of Kluber and Carrasco.
This article reminds me very strongly of the news reports in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, about who will find the next Golden Ticket. Only time…will tell. Seriously, this article is devoid of meaning.
news
/n(y)ooz/
noun
newly received or noteworthy information, especially about recent or important events.
You trying to say you weren’t gripped by golden ticket fever? Like you would’ve been the one kid in the world too cool to care about Wonka’s factory and fortune?
Never was too fond of sweets, even as a kid.
Now, tell me about Colonel’s Fried Chicken Ranch, and you’ve got my attention…
For the next stage maybe they can get everybody together and do it like speed dating, two minutes at a table.
I would cancel any other plans in order to watch a televised rose ceremony.
It does make me wonder how much outside income Ohtani could have made if he’d turned this into a reality show of some sort. In addition to getting a running start at building his name and brand on this continent.
Mariners fans right now
The A’s out thing seems odd as I thought per his intentions the A’s are basically everything he was wanting notably small market and one that aims to have a new stadium in the not to distant future as progress is made on site locations.
It seems like he basically told us thanks but no thanks.
Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners are far from small market.
The only source that he exclusively wants a small market team is Cashman. I’m sure that while Ohtani is interested in being on a smaller market team, other things are important to him as well, such as how he fits on a roster, the manager, the support staff, the medical team, etc. Maybe there was something in the A’s pitch that put him off.
To the Yankees, everywhere else IS a small market
Dude, the A’s get sewage in the clubhouse. This news travels.
MLB may have decided Oakland’s situation is too far gone to attempt to make it viable, but perhaps are still looking to make Seattle or SD viable.
Dude, the Padres have drawn 2 million plus for 21 of the last 22 years, despite one owner having a bitter divorce, another owner rejected by the other owners (Moorad)and a decade of inept management.
The team was sold to a group led by the sons of former Dodgers owner Peter O’Malley and his co-owner sister Terry O’Malley Seidler. The Managing General Partner is Peter Seidler, named after his uncle, and both Peter O’Malley and his sister are part owners, letting “the next generation” as Peter calls them take over.
A.J. Preller turned the inept front office into a professional outfit that can scout, evaluate and draft, and took nearly $100 million of the new owners’ money to restock the farm with top prospect pitching talent and a slew of middle infield talent. The national press hasn’t covered it much, but Fangraphs, Baseball America and mlb.com have.
It’s very unlikely that he actually wants a small market.
Instead, it is more likely that he is already steered to Seattle, and that as PR measure to get ahead of the issue, it has been leaked that – implausibly – he wants a small market. Then we he ‘chooses’ Seattle in the same way that Chris Paul ‘choose’ the Clippers, there will be a ‘small market where I’m comfortable’ narrative in place with some feel good factor.
There is almost no precedent at all of any major player in any sport pursuing a small market.
Some may argue ‘well he is different, he doesn’t care about money,’ so that the small market loss of endorsements et al wouldn’t matter. But in reality it is not remotely credible that Ohtani is passing up the likely hundreds of millions he’d get in FA in two years- much more likely, he has been assured by MLB that he will be able to get an extension similar to his market value in two years, despite such an extension breaking precedent.
International superstars don’t need to care about “small market loss of endorsement”. All eyes will be on Otani even if he plays all his games in Alaska.
Ohtani will make the bulk of his endorsement money in Japan. Also, playing in Seattle didn’t exactly hurt Ken Griffey Jr.’s ability to make a commercial in the 1990s.
True that. I can see Ohtani teaming up with Schwarzenegger in one of those crazy Japanese commercials, with Arnold introducing him as a “Famous American Baseball Player.”
I think Otani is an “A” pitcher in most any ML Park; however, if he wants to hit home runs as a left-handed hitter, the 2017 “park factors” for RF at AT&T were .55 (death valley), at Petco .90 (somewhat challenging) and at Safeco surprisingly 1.08 (friendly). In looking at his high school goals and writings I believe he wants to hit home runs. Based on his history in Japan and the danger of injury, I do not believe he will play the OF, but the Mariners have already stated that they will be happy to give him DH at-bats.
From what I’ve read, he tends to hit the ball the other way a lot, so maybe RF park factors aren’t the best bet.
This just in: Ohtani will not sign with the Federal League, the Continental League, or the Universal Baseball Association.
But he’s thinking of Cricket….
The low money necessary makes Ohtani low risk, but there is risk. Injury, adjusting the rotation, fitting what may be a marginal bat, etc. It’ll be fascinating to watch play out.
Every signing has those risks. What makes this a big deal is that the risk is more limited with a whole lot of upside.
The cost is $20 million plus the bonus, and they can pay him the major league minimum the first three years – if he signs a major league contract, which is likely for a pitcher with five years in the Japanese league. Then there’s 3 years of control but with arbitration. He could be making $15-$20 million the last year – or not. If he is, he’s the ace of your staff.
It would have been fun (for me) to see him play in New York, but the one thing he has is the right to chose where he thinks he’d be most comfortable. Whatever his thought process is, he’s entitled to it.
Of the 7 teams in the running, you only need to look for the city that has the best Japanese restaurants to find the eventual sweepstakes winner. My money is on
San Fran….
Is it possible the Managerial change in NY played a role in his decision and the diplomatic response was listing geography as his reason?
Not really imo, managers have very little do to with much anything that CAA and MLB and major deal makers consider.
It COULD affect what the player considers though. Not that I believe Joe Girardi has all that much clout, but these things can matter to the player.
After reading through the comment thread, I apologize to everyone for replying to that comment as though I was talking to a sensible and logical person.
You can take the ball player out of Japan.
But you can not take Japan out of the man.
News break: Jeter announces Marlins are being moved to Honolulu.
Probably has already been said in the comments, but I am extraordinarily happy that he’s not going to be a Yankee.
In 2016, the new rules for a foreign player seemed to me to be a carrot for the players, and they KNEW Ohtani was on the horizon. I’m shocked at how easily the players have allowed that to be undone.
On a side note, I’ve heard that Vegas is taking bets on where Otani ends up. Couldn’t he, through a friend or acquaintance, make a lot of money on this? After all, he knows where he’s going. It would literally be a sure thing.
Would that even be illegal? I mean, it’s not the same as fixing a fight or a basketball game: it just happens that he knows who’s going to win!
Vegas can’t take those kinds of bets, but offshore books can. They usually have low limits, like $50-$250, to minimize the risk of foreknowledge, but some of them took a mild bath even with low limits on some “Survivor” season, as I recall.
I presume most books have rules that prevent people from betting on something that they have control over.
How about betting on yourself in a boxing match? That’s completely legal. Probably wouldn’t be allowed to vote for your opponent.
I’m thinking it’s kind of like CFP committee members betting on which teams would make the playoffs.
How about betting on a team that you manage? I hear that can get you in a spot of trouble.
Can’t help but wonder how much Made in factors in to Cubs making the final 7. He’s the owner best known for flexibility in how he uses players. Maybe it doesn’t matter to Ohtani but most MLB managers are pretty rigid. I’d think it’s a big factor.
Most NPB managers are pretty rigid too.
If I had to bet, I would say Seattle. I would imagine Ichiro is one of Ohtani’s favorite players, the AL would let him DH on off days, and while Seattle is a great city, it’s certainly not as daunting as NYC or LA.
Washington also has no state income tax, in case that’s a consideration for him.
Neither does Texas, who is also in the running.
I like his style. I hope he and his reps only communicate through words made out of cut out letters, ransom style
He and his people are tight-lipped, like A.J. Preller and his radio silence. You don’t know if Preller has made a move until just before it’s announced. It may be that way with Ohtani.
Is it weird to anyone that Ohtani claims he wants a small market… but most of the teams he chose are big markets? Two LA teams, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco. Ok, Seattle is a medium sized market, and the Padres are a small market. But still, that’s mostly large markets.
Seems like he hates NY more than anything else, at least based on his list.
Ohtani never said it. Cashman with egg on his face said this was the reason.
check out US metro areas by GDP. Seattle is 12th, San Diego is 16th. But San Diego suffers from not including Tijuana on its southern border (really, both city limits are at the border), because it’s another country. If Tijuana GDP were included, San Diego would be 13th, tied with Minneapolis.
As for reasons to hate NYC, here’s the Daily News front page:
https://twitter.com/NYDailyNews/status/937519728536506368/photo/1
I really hope he doesn’t end up going to the Padres. They’re not going to be good any time soon, it would suck to see both him and Trout both playing on non-playoff teams.
One thing all teams have in common is they do ST in Arizona. Think maybe Ohtani simply wants to avoid long bus rides in Florida?
Also, except for Texas, they are all neutral or pitching helping ball parks. This is a guy whose future fortune will be based primarily on his pitching numbers. The hitting as a DH or Just PH/SP is gravy.
Looking at some numbers which say NYC is the most frequently visited city by Japanese in the mainland US. Tops even SF. Over 300K visitors per year. At any given time there are over 40K Japanese visitors on top of 25K residents in NYC. He wouldnt have been lonely for Japanese companionship in NYC
Of course the little league park called YS3 will kill his pitching line, which will be his meat and potatoes. The Yankees also have a history over the past decade of paying Free Agents better than home grown talent. Unlike Tanaka, Ohtani was not in a position to play in YS3 without guaranteed money on the table. This was what most analysts (and myself) missed. Its so obvious now. SMH
Me again…goood evening baseball folks…what a generational talent Mr. Ohtani huh….here is another one of my toothless, borderline homeless outside the box thoughts pertaining to the Ohtani sweepstakes….ONCE OHTANI SIGNS WITH THE TEAM OF HIS CHOOSING HE WILL BE A CONTRACTED PLAYER JUST LIKE THE REST OF THE PLAYERS IN THAT ORGANIZATION….What do you think his immediate TRADE VALUE BECOMES???? THEEEEEEE UNTHINKABLE…..WHAT KIND OF HAUL COULD U IMMEDIATELY IN TURN GET FROM THE YANKEES…..?
Teams would have to wait a year before he could be traded. Still, that would be some big value if he lives up to expectations.
I’m surprised you’ve pushed SF and SEA to the top of the seven-team list. The SD-SF comparison especially surprises me. Why would Ohtani care how *recently* a team made the playoffs? It’s the future outlook that counts–on that score, it doesn’t get much worse than SF.
If the Giants pull off Ohtani and Stanton moves that would project them in the middle of the WC race. All they would need is a couple good breaks. Long term, the outlook is a little less rosy.
This may have already been covered in the past, but isn’t Ohtani’s hitting ability a
significant advantage in the NL on his pitching days? Granted you’re only talking about something like 80 ABs, but that’s 80 quality-to-great ABs vs 80 bad-to-wasted ABs. I feel like it could come close to representing a 1-win improvement over a season when you factor it all in.
He also might like playing OF, which would be necessary in the NL. The guy clearly wants what he wants, money be damned.
I feel like that may be why he goes to the NL, and the Cubs are one of the most attractive NL locations, which is why they made the final cut. Or the Cubs presented this argument to Ohtani’s team, which got them a seat at the table.
Looks like this was covered here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-ohtani-really-more-valuable-in-the-al/
I think it all comes down to his ability in the OF. If he’s a league average fielder and wants to play there, he’s more valuable in the NL.
Expanding a little on my prior post…..if I was Ohtani’s advisor I would have to be a little more concerned with him joining a small market team because u know as soon as he’s signed other teams are going to immediately start TEMPTING THEM WITH ENORMOUS TRADE PACKAGES….I WOULD DEFINITELY NOT FORGET TO NEGOTIATE A NO TRADE CLAUSE…..WHICH LEADS TO A QUESTION I HAVE……CAN A MINOR LEAGUE CONTRACT INCLUDE A NO TRADE CLAUSE? DOES ANYBODY KNOW?
The initial contract can not. And the player cannot be traded within the first year (except as a ptbnl, but that wouldn’t happen in this case). It is likely that whatever team signs him will likely try a Longoria-esque extension and then they could potentially trade him, but after Atlanta, MLB will be watching the situation like a hawk so that could be tough and bad PR for the team.
I have the distinct feeling that Ohtani wants to sign with Darvish; which is why the Cubs and Rangers are still in the running. I read they were homeboys back in the Pacific. Ohtani and Darvish make a pretty sweet package deal.
It’s the Cubs and has been for a while now, folks. Enjoy the show!