Should the Nats Call Up Stephen Strasburg?
Less than a year after Tommy John surgery last September, Stephen Strasburg has returned to professional pitching. He threw his first rehab start Sunday in single-A, reaching 98 miles-per-hour on the gun — and his second start is scheduled for tomorrow night. Strasburg is among the most valuable players in the game, with a Yankee-like ability to draw attendance; Maury Brown estimated that Strasburg’s debut alone netted the Nationals an additional $1.5 million in revenue, and Brown estimated that his injury last year cost the Nationals up to $20 million in lost revenue. So the team is understandably eager to get him back on the field, shutting down opponents and rolling in the dough.
GM Mike Rizzo has wisely attempted to throw cold water on the excitement:
We are just looking for him to build arm strength, build up innings, build up stamina and we’ll monitor the recovery…. He is preparing to get to the ultimate level. We have to do it the right way.
But it’s hard to temper expectations for a pitcher of Strasburg’s ability and star power. So should the Nats call him up this year? Better yet, can they afford not to?
The usual recovery time for Tommy John surgery has declined over the past several years. As Will Carroll wrote in Sports Illustrated, “While most still quote the 12- to 18-month time frame after reconstruction, the fact is that using modern techniques and rehab has the real recovery period down to nine to 12 months.” The key is the rehabilitation, which can depend in part on the team’s performance. With the Nats fighting the Marlins for the cellar, there’s no standings-related reason to push Strasburg to the majors this year. It’s purely about money.
In just twelve major league starts, Stephen Strasburg had an extraordinarily noticeable affect on attendance. He pitched in six stadiums, and each home team saw an uptick in attendance over their non-Strasburg season average; all but the Phillies, who already averaged over 45,000 fans a game, averaged over 8,000 more fans at Strasburg’s starts.
Away games
| Attendance | Team total home attendance (regular season) |
Average attendance in non-Strasburg games |
Difference | ||
| June 8 | Indians | 40,315 | 1,391,644 | 16,892 | 23,423 |
| June 28 | Braves | 42,889 | 2,510,121 | 30,840 | 12,049 |
| July 16 | Marlins | 27,037 | 1,524,894 | 18,723 | 8314 |
| July 21 | Reds | 37,868 | 2,060,550 | 25,284 | 12,584 |
| August 21 | Phillies | 45,266 | 3,647,249 | 45,025 | 241 |
Home Games
| Opponent | Attendance | Team total home attendance (regular season) |
Average attendance in non-Strasburg games |
Difference | Average Strasburg home attendance |
||
| June 8 | Home | Pirates | 40,315 | 1,828,066 | 20,017 | 20,298 | 33,446 |
| June 18 | Home | White Sox | 40,325 | 20,308 | |||
| June 23 | Home | Royals | 31,913 | 11,896 | |||
| July 3 | Home | Mets | 39,214 | 19,197 | |||
| July 9 | Home | Giants | 34,723 | 14,706 | |||
| August 10 | Home | Marlins | 25,939 | 5922 | |||
| August 15 | Home | Diamondbacks | 21,695 | 1678 |
While Strasburg drew additional fans wherever he went, it is striking to note that Strasmania seems to cooled off by the end of the summer, as Strasburg’s last start at home drew barely half the number of fans that attended his debut. And the $1.5 million from the debut start was more of a one-time gift than a perennial return. As Bloomberg News wrote on the day of his debut:
With an average ticket price of $30.63, according to Wilmette, Illinois-based Team Marketing Report, and the Nationals drawing 20,760 fans a game this season, a sellout could increase the team’s ticket revenue by as much as $647,151 each time Strasburg pitches.
The analysis is still essentially valid, but Strasburg sellouts would likely net slightly less money, as the team is averaging 22,821 fans this year. If Strasburg were to come up at the beginning of September and make five starts, even if each game were a sellout, the team would stand to make no more than $3 million or so. And it’s likely to be even less than that, considering that Strasburg only drew 40,000 fans to his first two home starts, and drew fewer than 35,000 in five of his last six home starts.
Strasburg is a tremendously valuable commodity to the Nationals. But his in-season value this season is relatively low at the moment. Calling him up to pitch a few starts at the end of the year could be a good PR move for the Nationals, as they gear up for a 2012 campaign that could feature both a major league-ready Bryce Harper and a major league-ready Stephen Strasburg. But it won’t make a huge difference at the gate. It’s not worth jeopardizing Strasburg’s arm over a couple million dollars worth of attendance revenue.
Alex is a writer for The Hardball Times.
You’ve gotta expect the ONLY way the Nationals let S.S. pitcher this September is if they are 100% confident he is fully healthy. No way they are stupid enough to let him come back at this point if there is any question his arm is not ready.
But Strasburg is already pitching for Hagerstown. There’s not really any reason he couldn’t do his rehab with the MLB team.
He could still be cautious, and slowly build up his pitch counts. Just with a lot more fans ($$$) watching. The author is not suggested changing his routine or his pitch counts or his rehab schedule. Just the stadium.
It’s also worth noting that he’s on the MLB DL, and is thus collecting an MLB salary and MLB service time anyway.
As long as the pitch counts and pitch selection remained exactly the same, there’s probably no real difference. But it’s unlikely pitch selection would remain the same in a major league game…and if he really were just throwing the same stuff he would in a minor league rehab (calibrated not to over-stress his arm early), there’s a decent chance he could get lit up. Is that what Nats fans would be interested in?
Also, there’s a risk (I don’t know how significant) that a major league manager would feel pressure to leave him out if he were doing well. Whereas a minor league manager is more likely (perhaps) to keep exactly to pitch counts.
In theory, I agree with you. Venue doesn’t matter if the regimen remaining identical…but in practice, the regimen may not.
As a huge Strasburg fan, while I would love to see him get some MLB starts this year, I have do disagree somewhat with this.
Even though everybody knows the Nats are out of it in 2011, pitching in the majors places more pressure on him to do everything it takes to win. As a college athlete who has had his share of nagging injuries, I know that the pressure to play at 110% all the time can make you do stupid things if your body is not ready for that.
If the team thinks he can keep himself from overexerting his arm, or if he has truly returned completely from injury, then sure, run him out there for the big club in September. But if he’s not ready, for the sake of his own future, I say let him finish the year in the low-pressure environment of minors. As much as I would love to see him back in the majors ASAP, I do realize that he has plenty of baseball ahead of him and to risk that on some high-pressure innings before is ready would be foolish and irresponsible.
Even though the risk of what I am saying may be very small, with an arm like Strasburg’s, I say take away even that small risk. Wait until 2012.
I will add though, the other part of me says if he’s ready, let him make a few starts. Line him up to start game 162, and let the Nationals’ fans salivate for an entire offseason over what 2012 could be like. That’ll put some butts in seats.
Rushing him to make a quick buck would make no sense.
But if his rehab schedule calls for it and he has no setbacks along the way, then why not?
“It’s not worth jeopardizing Strasburg’s arm over a couple million dollars worth of attendance revenue.”
The problem with this sentence (and everyone else like schilling, dibble, saying the Nats are “rushing” Strasburg back for a few extra bones) is that it begs the question that pitching in MLB is bad for Strasburg. Why is that automatically assumed that pitching now is damaging for him? Jordan Zimmermann came back on a similar timetable for this same franchise and he’s fine. Maybe getting these 50 innings at various levels will be GOOD for Strasburg’s arm strength — I don’t know why it automatically has to be bad.
Yes.
How about calling him up because it is better for him in the long run to get some innings against MLB competition so they can assess the results and adjust his offseason work accordingly?
Also of note, the minor league schedule ends a month before the Majors; to NOT call him up in September is effectively the same as shutting him down from live games.
Excellent point. If they want him to get as many innings as possible this fall (which might make sense, purely from a rehab standpoint), then it makes sense to call him up in September.
“the fact is that using modern techniques and rehab has the real recovery period down to nine to 12 months.” This is why I don’t understand the “why are the Nats rushing him back?!?” argument. Coming back 12 months after TJ surgery is not abnormal.
The one thing I’ve been pondering – would throwing 50 or so innings in September increase the amount of innings Strasburg can pitch next year/would not throwing in September decrease the amount of innings? I assume that even if Strasburg didn’t return to the bigs this year he would be pitching in some sort of winter league where he would get innings anyways, but I’m still curious.
It depends on the individual and the rehab schedule set out for them, but I’d think that a Tommy John pitcher returning in August would try to get as many innings as possible in fall/winter (whether it be as a September call-up, instrux, the AFL, or winter league).
What about the fact that a Strasburg return would probably go on national TV?
ESPN no, MLBN probably
If it coincided with the Thursday night game or Saturday/Sunday Stras’ start would be on ESPN or Fox respectively. Absolutely.
I don’t think you can just take the difference between the average attendance and Strasburg’s starts and say that’s the extra revenue he brings in. The reason being is that that doesn’t take into account people that were going to go to a Nats game anyway but just chose to the Strasburg start.
For example I’m a Tigers fan and basically I go to atleast 1 weekend game anytime they have a weekend series. So if I see Verlander is starting on Saturday I may choose that game over say Brad Penny on Sunday but either way I was planning on going to just 1 game regardless.
The vast majority of fans do not attend a game every weekend. Don’t draw any conclusions from your own experience.
Fine, let’s say you attend 3 games a year no matter what. And you decide you want to see Strasburg every time so you go during his starts. His attendance numbers will be higher because you’re there but there won’t be any extra revenue because you were going to 3 games anyway.
You have to buy tickets to four games to see a Strasburg game in DC. Verlander’s draw is small potatoes in comparison.
“But it’s hard to temper expectations for a pitcher of Strasburg’s ability and star power. So should the Nas call him up this year? Better yet, can they afford not to?”
One expectation tempering thought issues from the fear that, if the Nats rush SS back to the majors, he may reinjure the elbow on his pitching arm, thus preparing SS for another TJ surgery.
The Nats are now 56-60. This is not the time for the team to use Strasburg as a cash cow.
“This is not the time for the team to use Strasburg as a cash cow.”
What makes you believe that is what they are doing?
If the team is comfortable with his health, then there is no reason why he couldn’t pitch in the majors this year.
I do not think they would risk overusing or forcing him back early as they must certainly know that 2-3 games in 2011 are not worth missing games in 2012.
You’ve got to believe them when they say, if he’s ready, he’ll pitch – but not a second earlier. As you show, it’s obviously in their best interest to have him on the mound, as long as there is a 0.000000% chance it could affect his future.
(Ok, so if you did the math, there is SOME number that they SHOULD gamble on if a Strasburg start netted your organization a few hundred K, since that buys you something… but in reality it is 0.)
Apparently he’s ready, because he pitched on Sunday.
Just the fact that he’s pitching in the minors right now says yes, he’s MLB bound in Sept.. A great PR move for next year as long as he stays healthy. ANY setback and you shut him down.
Might as well make rehab assignments in the bigs. Just add a few more pitches each time.
There seems to be an opinion that pitching in the majors is more stressful than pitching in the minor leagues, since people are okay with him rehabbing in the minors but fearing pitching in the majors is a risk.
Is this true?
Yeah, he can rehab anywhere really as long as he’s monitored properly. The biggest performance issue when returning from TJ surgery seems to be control. If he’s getting the ball over the plate on a semi-regular basis, then there shouldn’t be any additional risks in having him finish the season with a few starts at the MLB level.
I think you just have make sure he isn’t driving up high per inning pitch counts because of pitch control issues. That’ll be the biggest difference between Hagerstown and majors. Throwing 70-90 pitches in 6 innings or 4 innings.
Heh, the attendance went down almost 10,000 on June 23 vs. the Royals. It was almost a 100 degrees. I kind of wish I hadn’t been there.
Of course he should pitch this year! I just picked him up off the waiver wire!
;o)
A lot of people say he can rehab anywhere, but I’m not really sure this is true.
It depends a lot on his rehab schedule. If the schedule calls for pitching once every ten days, you have to work that into your rotation. If the schedule calls for him to pitch up to 90 pitches one week and no more than 50 the next, you have to work that into your schedule. If you sell $1.5m in tickets to people wanting to see Strasburg, he better not be limited to 70 pitches. You see my point.
Also, there is the issue of his options, which may be useful down the road if he’s injured again or has troubles coming back and needs time in AAA like Liriano did.
I don’t know what your point about options is. He’s on the MLB roster, on rehab assignment. He’s not on option and won’t burn an option either way.
I’m not sure why you’d want your guy throwing 90 pitches one start, 50 the next, 5 days rest… ten days rest… I’ve never heard of staggering rest and pitch counts for game action like that throughout rehab, unless it’s an intentional effect of a setback taking place.
He’s already on schedule to throw in game action with 5 days rest in between starts. He has the typical bullpen sessions in between… It’s not to say that everything will go as well as planned, but as long as things do, they are going to want to keep building his arm strength back on the regular SP schedule.
And why would the Nationals care about pitch counts and angry fans? I imagine they are just glad to see him getting back into action.
His first rehab game was thirty one pitches. Neither of us has any idea what his rehab schedule is, so let’s not pretend like we do.
He may have a nice start today, but he may also have issues during his next bullpen session. In those types of regard, no one knows what his schedule might become. If he progresses as planned within his schedule, his schedule will continue to be fairly transparent.
Is there a reason that pitching in AAA is safer than pitching in the Majors?
For one thing the AAA season ends labor day weekend.
there’s also the fact that AAA is a joke
Better field conditions, more comfortable amenities, more security, more attentive staff/trainers, more knowledgeable coaches, etc.
Oh, wait. No.
It’s less stressful per AB/game, because the competition level is not as high. You could ask Stras to not go 95/100% but you can bet he couldn’t help but ignore it once he’s out there in a MLB game. Just the nature of the beast.
Yes, Dan, research shows pitching in the majors is more stressful than pitching in the minors.
Which can be regulated easily enough by, say, if his last minors start goes 6 innings, just make his first majors start go 5 innings, then. Subject to actual pitch counts, pitching from the stretch, and so on.
The reason, Jesse, being that you have to work harder to get better hitters out. Just human nature that, when your last pitch got smoked, you put just a bit more torque into the next one. So’s the theoretical explanation.
I suppose it’s also possible that, in facing major league hitters, a higher percentage of your pitches are from the stretch.
his mechanics are a mess. very similar to mark prior
Really? We’re still having this (false) conversation?
Everyone complained that Strasburg had terrible mechanics. Inverted W, and all that nonsense. Meanwhile Prior was such a shock to be injured because everyone talked about his great mechanics. How is that the same? If they had the same mechanics why did they get analyzed so differently.
We can all tell when you’re trying to show off…but you’re gonna have to do better than parrot false stories that have been brutally beaten to death by more mainstream sports sources.
Ahh, the “Inverted W”, also known in the alphabet as a bloody M!!!!
YES. Stephen Strasburg’s W looks like that of Mark Prior’s. But guess what, it also looks like that of Cliff Lee’s, David Price’s and Jered Weaver’s. Gahh if only the inverted W didn’t ruin these guys careers.
Prior and Strasburg’s mechanics are NOT the same. I get tired of reading this same, repeated misinformation.
Prior and Reyes’s mechanics are the same.
Mark Prior
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/578976/Mark_Prior_inverted_W.png
Anthony Reyes
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/baseball/pitching/Images/Examples/Example_InvertedW_AnthonyReyes_2006_048.jpg
———————————
Strasburg’s “inverted W” is more like Jon Lester’s:
Strasburg
http://static.blogcritics.org/10/06/08/136819/strasburg.jpg
Lester
http://blog.masslive.com/redsoxmonster/medium_jon_lester_throw.jpg
—————————————–
The issue with Strasburg is that his pitching arm elbow goes toward 1B and creates late timing and additional arm stress. It’s a lot like jake Peavy (who IMO is the closest SS comparison for mechanics).
Strasburg
http://www.thesportsbank.net/core/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Stephen-Strasburg.jpg
Peavy
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/baseball/pitching/Images/Pitchers/JakePeavy/JakePeavy_2006_017.jpg
——————————-
Seriously, stop with the Strasburg “inverted W” comparisons to Prior. Completely different height and action of the elbows.
Tom House said Prior’s mechanics were perfect, and the media just repeated what he said.
Eventually, “House clients” started breaking down, and people were open to other ideas.
Bringing your elbows up like Prior Does (both elbows high to the sky, bent at 90-degrees) is associated with high risk.
Bringing both arms above the shoulders (slightly) is not the same thing as an “inverted W”.
Seriously, stand up and riase both arms (straight) out to the sides so that your body makes a “T”. Note the stress level on the shoulder.
Now bend your arms at 90-degrees and riase your elbows above shoulder height with fingers pointing to the ground. How does that feel?
Some of this crap is just straight common sense.
What people are trying to figure out is the ideal combination of scapular loading/retraction (bringing your shoulder blades together) that allows for max torque with lesser risk of injury.
They should only bring him back if they were prepared to do with him this year what they didn’t do last year and keep the work load on his arm very, very low. They’d be stupid to not have him in the stadium and pitching as much as he can, even if was just out of the bullpen.
This is off-topic, but could someone explain to me how pitcher WAR is calculated? I assumed it was based on FIP and innings pitched, but as I look at Roy Halladay’s season it seems like there is a fluctuation year to year. In 2010 Halladay pitched 250.2 innings with an FIP of 3.01 for a WAR of 6.6. In 2009 he pitched 239 innings with an FIP of 3.06 for a WAR of 7.3. How is that the case? With more innings and a better FIP in 2010, how was his WAR lower than the previous year?
it’s also adjusted for park and relative to other pitchers…so average pitcher performance varies from year to year. Having an FIP of 3 when the average FIP is 3 is much less valuable than having an FIP of 3 if the average FIP is 3.5. Correct me if I’m wrong about the calculations.
you have to factor in replacement level as well
In 2009, his league/park adjusted FIP (known as FIP-) was 70. This means he was 30% better than average. In 2010, it was 74, meaning he was “only” 26% better than average.
The explanation is that between 2009 and 2010, offense across baseball sharply declined, and he happened to move from the AL to the NL as well.
If you look at FIP- instead of FIP, the WAR numbers should be more intuitive.
”
In just twelve major league starts, Stephen Strasburg had an extraordinarily noticeable affect on attendance. ”
I think it could be easily argued that the longer hes in the league, the less of an affect he’ll have on attendance.
It’s not just a novelty… if he’s good, attendance will boost during his games whether it’s his 2nd year, 5th year or 10th year. This doesn’t have a recognizable affect on attendance for teams that have many sell outs in advance, but there’s a big advantage to making sure that not only tickets get sold, but people who buy tickets (even if they have to do it from scalpers/ticket services) actually show up… the big difference will be found in potential walk up crowds that will attempt to use Strasburg as more of a sure thing to see a good performance. Sure, it’s a bigger disappointment when that doesn’t happen, but there’s a tangible affect on attendance there. Randy Johnson was consistently one of the biggest performers in that area, especially during the time periods where attendance was regularly putrid in Seattle, but his games made marked increases in the product on the field and putting bodies in the stands.
Right, and that’s why I wrote, “While Strasburg drew additional fans wherever he went, it is striking to note that Strasmania seems to cooled off by the end of the summer, as Strasburg’s last start at home drew barely half the number of fans that attended his debut.”
Strasburg is not a commodity. He is an asset. A commodity is defined as “A basic good used in commerce that is interchangeable with other commodities of the same type.” I see nothing interchangeable there.
Apparently his ligaments are interchangeable.
com·mod·i·ty
? ?/k??m?d?ti/ Show Spelled [kuh-mod-i-tee]
noun, plural -ties.
1. an article of trade or commerce, especially a product as distinguished from a service.
2. something of use, advantage, or value.
-dictionary.com
The author wasn’t talking about commodities markets or orange juice futures, and the way he used it is pretty commonplace, so I’m sure you understood what he meant. DEFINITIONS ARE DESCRIPTIVE, NOT PRESCRIPTIVE.
There are different classes of wheat, apples, cattle, et.cet. All of which are classified as commodities. Engineers have been classified as commodities, I’m sure are considered as such when the highest-level muckity-mucks are planning out the corporate future.
It was brought up by a commenter earlier, but I think that the parallels between Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann need to be hammered home. They’re in the same organization and that organization is outlining almost exactly the same plan for Strasburg that it did with Zimmermann. What’s more, it’s worked pretty well for Zimmermann so far this season, so why deviate from the plan?
It’s said that command is the last thing to come back after TJ surgery. The velocity usually comes back pretty quickly. The sharpness of the breaking ball usually comes back fairly quickly. Locating it is the hardest thing to get back. By coming back (on limited pitch counts…. J-Zimm topped out at 86 pitches in his seven big league outings late last season), Zimmermann had a chance to adapt to pitching post-TJ surgery and was able to hit the ground running in 2011. The results (2.75 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 4.42 K/BB) kind of speak for themselves.
Is the money that the Nats could make off of having Strasburg in the rotation down the stretch a factor? It probably is in some way. Getting him ready for the 2012 season should take precedence, though, and I think that’s their idea behind bringing him back. My guess is that they’ll be extremely cautious in limiting his pitch counts. We can probably expect them to limit his innings in 2012 as well, much as they have with Zimmermann.
The Zimmermann comparison is worth pointing out. Thank you.
What makes more sense for the Nats:
[1] Having him pitching in the minors with people going crazy filling up stadiums and reporting his every move.
[2] Having him do the same thing in MLB.
It’s not like he’s coasting or throwing with less effort or different mechanics in MiLB.
Using average ticket price isn’t a fair evaluation of how much marginal revenue Strasburg could add. You have to add in parking, food, merchandise (a healthy Strasburg means more Strasburg jerseys being sold), and alcohol/other beverages. I bet the average marginal fan adds more like $50-75, not 30.63.
Strasburg is going have to learn how to pitch w/o a 100 mph FB. This is not the same guy fans saw last year. In fact, he probably should not be called up until he completes a normal circuit in the minors, or at least until the 2nd half next year.
Young pitchers tend to overthrow when they get called up, so it is better to build up his arm while he learns how to pitch before doing so.
How can you say he’s not the same guy? If he couldn’t find the plate in these rehab starts then yeah I could see what you’re saying. But he’s been throwing strike after strike and he’s been throwing the same speed as before. Haven’t seen it personally but reports say his curve and change are just as nasty. You’re acting like he lost 10 mph on his fastball when in reality it stayed the same
He never consistently pitched with a 100MPH fastball, and he’s supposedly still hovering around the upper 90s as he was before. Guys who come back from TJ at times can return with more velocity for whatever reason. That won’t be an immediate issue.