Should the Nats Call Up Stephen Strasburg?

Less than a year after Tommy John surgery last September, Stephen Strasburg has returned to professional pitching. He threw his first rehab start Sunday in single-A, reaching 98 miles-per-hour on the gun — and his second start is scheduled for tomorrow night. Strasburg is among the most valuable players in the game, with a Yankee-like ability to draw attendance; Maury Brown estimated that Strasburg’s debut alone netted the Nationals an additional $1.5 million in revenue, and Brown estimated that his injury last year cost the Nationals up to $20 million in lost revenue. So the team is understandably eager to get him back on the field, shutting down opponents and rolling in the dough.

GM Mike Rizzo has wisely attempted to throw cold water on the excitement:

We are just looking for him to build arm strength, build up innings, build up stamina and we’ll monitor the recovery…. He is preparing to get to the ultimate level. We have to do it the right way.

But it’s hard to temper expectations for a pitcher of Strasburg’s ability and star power. So should the Nats call him up this year? Better yet, can they afford not to?

The usual recovery time for Tommy John surgery has declined over the past several years. As Will Carroll wrote in Sports Illustrated, “While most still quote the 12- to 18-month time frame after reconstruction, the fact is that using modern techniques and rehab has the real recovery period down to nine to 12 months.” The key is the rehabilitation, which can depend in part on the team’s performance. With the Nats fighting the Marlins for the cellar, there’s no standings-related reason to push Strasburg to the majors this year. It’s purely about money.

In just twelve major league starts, Stephen Strasburg had an extraordinarily noticeable affect on attendance. He pitched in six stadiums, and each home team saw an uptick in attendance over their non-Strasburg season average; all but the Phillies, who already averaged over 45,000 fans a game, averaged over 8,000 more fans at Strasburg’s starts.

Away games

		Attendance	Team total home attendance (regular season)	Average attendance in non-Strasburg games	Difference
June 8	Indians	40,315	1,391,644	16,892	23,423
June 28	Braves	42,889	2,510,121	30,840	12,049
July 16	Marlins	27,037	1,524,894	18,723	8314
July 21	Reds	37,868	2,060,550	25,284	12,584
August 21	Phillies	45,266	3,647,249	45,025	241

Home Games

		Opponent	Attendance	Team total home attendance (regular season)	Average attendance in non-Strasburg games	Difference	Average Strasburg home attendance
June 8	Home	Pirates	40,315	1,828,066	20,017	20,298	33,446
June 18	Home	White Sox	40,325			20,308
June 23	Home	Royals	31,913			11,896
July 3	Home	Mets	39,214			19,197
July 9	Home	Giants	34,723			14,706
August 10	Home	Marlins	25,939			5922
August 15	Home	Diamondbacks	21,695			1678

While Strasburg drew additional fans wherever he went, it is striking to note that Strasmania seems to cooled off by the end of the summer, as Strasburg’s last start at home drew barely half the number of fans that attended his debut. And the $1.5 million from the debut start was more of a one-time gift than a perennial return. As Bloomberg News wrote on the day of his debut:

With an average ticket price of $30.63, according to Wilmette, Illinois-based Team Marketing Report, and the Nationals drawing 20,760 fans a game this season, a sellout could increase the team’s ticket revenue by as much as $647,151 each time Strasburg pitches.

The analysis is still essentially valid, but Strasburg sellouts would likely net slightly less money, as the team is averaging 22,821 fans this year. If Strasburg were to come up at the beginning of September and make five starts, even if each game were a sellout, the team would stand to make no more than $3 million or so. And it’s likely to be even less than that, considering that Strasburg only drew 40,000 fans to his first two home starts, and drew fewer than 35,000 in five of his last six home starts.

Strasburg is a tremendously valuable commodity to the Nationals. But his in-season value this season is relatively low at the moment. Calling him up to pitch a few starts at the end of the year could be a good PR move for the Nationals, as they gear up for a 2012 campaign that could feature both a major league-ready Bryce Harper and a major league-ready Stephen Strasburg. But it won’t make a huge difference at the gate. It’s not worth jeopardizing Strasburg’s arm over a couple million dollars worth of attendance revenue.