Slights, Returns, and Hall of Fame Ballots
There’s often a bit of weirdness on the fringes of the annual BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, and 2019 entry, unveiled on Monday, was no exception. What transpires on those fringes rarely has any bearing on who will wind up on the podium in Cooperstown next July, joyously thanking families, teammates, and coaches. But with the news of the ballot’s arrival still fresh, and with the Very Serious Business of analyzing the top candidates a task best suited for after Thanksgiving, it’s worth considering the margins for a few moments.
Because the ballot’s release is a Big Deal to yours truly, writer of more words about the Hall of Fame on an annual basis than just about anybody with a claim to sanity, I had Monday’s article, “The Big Questions About the 2019 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot,” ready to go in advance of the Hall’s 12 pm ET official press release, save for the final total of candidates and the list of first-timers. While the official rules make anybody who played at least 10 seasons in the majors and has been retired for five seasons eligible — anybody who’s not on baseball’s ineligible list, that is, or has not otherwise exhausted his eligibility — not everybody who meets those requirements actually lands on the ballot. That’s because there’s a stage that involves some subjective choices by the BBWAA Screening Committee, a six-member panel that puts the ballot together.
To appear on the ballot, a player must be nominated by any two of the six members of that committee. That’s a mere formality for all of the obvious candidates, but it becomes a coin toss the further down the list you go. Historically, the worst slights probably belong to three-time Gold Glove winner and two-time All-Star Willie Davis, who racked up 60.7 WAR (Baseball-Reference version, which I’m sticking with for all things ballot-related) in an 18-year career that spanned from 1960-1979 and included a 1977-1978 detour to Japan that put him out of sight and out of mind, and Negro Leagues-turned-Brooklyn Dodgers staple Jim Gilliam, who accrued 40.7 WAR from 1953-1966.
That pair is hardly alone. Among recent examples, in 2014, outfielder Shannon Stewart (24.9 WAR from 1995-2008, highlighted by a fourth-place finish in the 2003 AL MVP voting) was left off the ballot, while his former Twins teammate Jacque Jones (11.6 WAR from 1999-2008) was included. That same year, Esteban Loaiza (23.0 WAR from 1995-2008, highlighted by a second-place finish in the 2003 AL Cy Young voting) was on the outside, while Armando Benitez (17.0 WAR from 1994-2008, highlighted by a cheap shot that set off an infamous brawl between the Orioles and Yankees in 1998) was on the inside. Yes, Jones had more homers than Stewart in less playing time, and yes, Benitez had more saves than Loaiza had wins, but none of them had a chance at actually being elected. It was completely arbitrary who among them received the honor of being on the ballot.
As a bystander, one would have to try very hard to take actual offense at those 2014 choices, but that wasn’t the case in 2016, when Chan Ho Park was left off the ballot. No, his final numbers (124-98, 4.36 ERA, 18.1 WAR from 1994-2010) weren’t anything close to Hall-worthy, but Park was the first South Korea-born player in major league history, and he pitched well enough to become the country’s first All-Star representative; today he’s considered a hero in his homeland. Excluding him, and depriving him of the modest level of attention and affection afforded to any candidate on the ballot, smacked of cultural insensitivity. Likewise in 2017, when Javier Vazquez was left off. Again, not a pitcher with Cooperstown-type numbers (165-160, 4.25 ERA, 2,536 SO, 43.6 WAR), but snubbing a former All-Star who ranks as Puerto Rico’s all-time leader in wins, strikeouts, and pitching WAR wasn’t an especially good look for either the BBWAA or MLB.
In the months and even years leading up to its announcement, Baseball-Reference’s page dedicated to the 2019 ballot listed 40 names, but the final ballot contains only 35. Six potential choices did not make the cut. Two of them were catchers (Ramon Hernandez and Yorvit Torrealba) and the other four pitchers (Jose Contreras, Ryan Dempster, Octavio Dotel, and Jake Westbrook). Dempster made two All-Star teams, with Hernandez, Contreras, and Westbrook making one appearance apiece, and they all had nice careers, but it’s not hard to see why they were left off. Torrealba was a backup for most of his career. Dotel was a setup man who only spent a few full seasons as a closer. Westbrook, Dempster, and Contreras had respective career ERA+ of 98, 99, and 100, even if some of their ERAs were actually lower than those of Jon Garland and Darren Oliver, both of whom did make the ballot. The missing sextet had six of the seven lowest WARs of any of the 40 potential candidates, with Juan Pierre (17.1 WAR) the only player from that group to make the cut, thanks no doubt to all the stolen bases — 614 of ’em, good for 18th all-time.
Fair enough. The more math-conscious among you may have noted that this literally doesn’t add up. I mentioned totals of 40 potential names, 35 actual ones, and six omissions. That’s because there was a candidate that none of us really saw coming: Rick Ankiel.
I’ll have more to say about Ankiel when the time comes, but you know the outline of his story. He debuted in the majors at age 20 in late 1999, showing high-90s heat from the left side. He pitched well enough to be runner up in the NL Rookie of the Year race in 2000 (11-6, 3.50 ERA, 194 strikeouts, 175 innings), but then suddenly couldn’t throw a strike in that year’s postseason, walking 11 batters in four innings spread over three appearances. He pitched just 11 major league games over the next three years, a span during which he underwent Tommy John surgery. Beginning in 2005, he switched to the outfield, and in 2007, he returned to the majors, beginning a seven-year run that included one big season in St. Louis (.264/.337/.506, 25 HR) and took him to five other teams besides the Cardinals, generally as a reserve. With just 462 career hits and 8.9 WAR (3.6 of it as a pitcher), he’s got absolutely zero shot at the Hall, of course, but his inclusion on the ballot, which offers us the chance to retrace his journey — even the lowlights, such as his appearance in the Mitchell Report at a time when his career was on the precipice of oblivion — is a perfect example of why the margins are of interest.
On top of what he’s already done, what’s remarkable about Ankiel is that his career may not actually be over. In August, he made a pitching appearance at the Bluegrass World Series, a Louisville-based six-day tournament in which a team of former MLB players faces seven collegiate teams. The 39-year-old lefty struck out the only batter he faced, reaching 89 mph.
Former @Cardinals Rick Ankiel strikes out the only batter he faced tonight. Cool to see him back on the mound. ?
Also went 2-for-4 at the plate with 4 RBI’s. pic.twitter.com/b09gUK4Glb
— Jevin Redman (@Jevin_13) August 2, 2018
Ankiel then told Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown that he was considering a full-blown comeback attempt, saying, “I have nothing to lose. I’m not afraid. I might as well try.” In recent years, he had been throwing regularly while spending time coaching other players who have battled the yips just as he did, and given how good his arm felt, he was willing to take the mound during the tournament, not only to give his kids a chance to watch him pitch but to prove something to himself. Mission accomplished. Alas, earlier this month, he underwent an alternative to Tommy John surgery called primary repair, which doesn’t require a full reconstruction of the ulnar collateral ligament or as much time to recover and rehab. The Cardinals are interested in signing him to a minor league deal, believing that he could be pitching in the minors by midseason.
If Ankiel were to return to the majors, he wouldn’t be the first to do so after appearing on a Hall of Fame ballot. It wasn’t uncommon in the days before the five-year waiting period was introduced in the 1950s; still-active players such as Jimmie Foxx and Bill Terry even received a smattering of votes in the first election in 1936, and players such as Dizzy Dean and Babe Herman returned to the majors after long stretches away. Dean, who battled injuries after 1936, pitched one game in 1941 and received 6.9% of the vote in 1945. After getting 54.7% in 1947, a time during which he was working as a broadcaster for the St. Louis Browns, he returned to pitch in one final big league game on September 28, when he was still just 37 years old; he was elected in 1953. Herman, after playing just 17 games in 1937, retreated to the minors and settled in with the Pacific Coast League’s Hollywood Stars, for whom he annually hit above .300 in part-time duty. He began receiving Hall of Fame votes in 1942, then at age 42 reappeared for a 37-game big league stint with the Dodgers in 1945, and resumed receiving votes from 1948-1960, though never more than 5.7%.
More recently, Minnie Miñoso — known as the Cuban Comet, a color-line pioneer hailed as “the Jackie Robinson for all Latinos” by Orlando Cepeda — disappeared from the majors after a 30-game stint with the White Sox and then — in a mistake that apparently nobody caught, with Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs as-yet-uninvented — was included on the 1969 ballot, a year earlier than the rules allowed. He received six votes, all the while continuing a career in various Mexican leagues from 1965-1973. The Five Percent rule wasn’t in place yet, but presumably didn’t return to the ballot because there was a brief stretch where players active in the minors were not considered retired; this delayed the eligibilities of Robin Roberts and Warren Spahn in the early 1970s. Miñoso then resurfaced for not one but two cameos as a late-season DH/pinch-hitter for the Bill Veeck-owned White Sox in 1976 and 1980. Not until 1986 did he reappear on a Hall of Fame ballot, in front of an electorate far less familiar with his feats than the one that would have initially considered his candidacy; though on the ballot through 1999, he never topped 21.1% of the vote.
Finally, Dominican righty Jose Rijo, who starred for the 1990 world champion Reds, made the 1994 NL All-Star team and had two top-five Cy Young finishes during the 1984-1995 phase of his career. He spent 1996-2000 outside the majors, recovering from Tommy John surgery and two subsequent elbow surgeries that were initially counted as TJs. In 2001, the same year he received a single vote on the Hall of Fame ballot, he mounted a comeback that carried him back to the majors, with 13 appearances in relief for the Reds. As Dr. Tim Kremchek said at the time when describing Rijo’s arm: “[H]e has enough arthritis in his elbow, scar tissue, changes, bone spurs that have stabilized his elbow, plus his knowledge of pitching, to make him effective.” Rijo made 31 appearances in 2003 before surgery for a bone chip knocked him out yet again, and he never returned. That he was shut out on the 2008 ballot was nothing compared to the road that he took to arrive there.
Not every candidate on the 2019 ballot wound up there after traveling the peaks and valleys Ankiel and his predecessors traced. But as we sift through the names in the coming weeks — from the locks like Mariano Rivera to the obvious just-happy-to-be-heres — it’s worth appreciating their careers and their journeys just the same, regardless of whether the check-box next to their name is worth filling in. For some of these players, that check-box is its own reward.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
going to have to disagree with the part about Chan Ho Park. Being the first player from South Korea is nice, but it doesn’t change the fact that he wasn’t very good. Don’t see how leaving an undeserving player off the ballot is insensitive
“he wasn’t very good”
Park has 18.1 career WAR. That’s more than the vast majority of players who reach the majors have.
Beyond that, every year there are lots of guys on the ballot who have no chance of making the HOF. There was simply no reason to exclude Park from the ballot.
There is really no reason to include anyone who doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame.
But that’s not the reality of the world we live in. In the actual real world, there was no reason to exclude Park from the ballot.
The reason is he is not a hall of fame caliber player. The fact that other undeserving players get put on a ballot isn’t proof that this undeserving player should as well.
Another reason is that 18.1 WAR does not even put you in the top 1,000 players all time (list only goes that far). As per JAWS he does not rank in the top 500 among starting pitchers. Sorry, if you can’t rank in the top 1,000 players or top 500 starting pitchers you don’t really deserve to be on a HOF ballot.
Perhaps we should start ejecting players already in the Hall of Fame who don’t belong there, then.
It’s an obvious corollary to your argument (which, by the way, is not only specious in terms of the ballot itself but also patently absurd in therms of the original argument.)
But, just sticking to the facts as here presented, the pre-ballot system is clearly broken. It probably worked reasonably well back when, but let’s face it, the ability to black-ball somebody you don’t rate is open to abuse.
I argue that players who have a 0% chance of making the HOF because their play is SO far below the level required to get in don’t need to be on a HOF ballot. It seems you are arguing otherwise. What is your criteria then? If you want to argue that everyone is eligible for a vote then fine. That is different from saying someone who couldn’t crack the top 500 SP on JAWS was somehow snubbed.
I agree with Fordham – the decision probably wasn’t particularly “culturally insensitive”…
Ballot Nazi # 5 to #2: “hey Fred, what do you think of Chan Ho Park”
#2 rolls his chew, spits, then replies “naw, he wasn’t that good. Besides I don’t like asians”
I mean, that’s a bit of hyperbole, but I can’t imagine that the distinguished group of six didn’t consider the cultural significance of Park when determining the worthiness of his candidacy. Do we know who these people are and can we ask them about this?
It’s a whole Everest of hyperbole. Did anybody actually mention “not liking Asians” before you did? I don’t imagine that, in real life, your hypothetical #2, with or without chaw, which is an interesting addition that you didn’t really need to add as an advance to your argument, this silly little irrelevant conversation would ever happen.
Thank you for expressing the wild corners of your imagination, though.
Was Loaiza’s snub before or after he was convicted of drug trafficking?
Before. He was arrested this year and pled guily in August.
I had him that one season he won 20 games. I know no fantasy in fangraphs, but he looked then like a juicer. Not a shock he was later dealing drugs.
Jay, do you have any insight into why the Hall bothers with the nomination process, rather than just put everybody who played for 10 years on the ballot? It seems like only an opportunity to insult some arbitrary group of players, with little effect on the actual results of the voting. If you’re going to put the Darren Olivers and Vernon Wellses of the world on the ballot even though they clearly have no shot of getting voted in, why not just include everybody and let the voters ignore them?
I would expect that there’s a point at which the list gets too long and some voters’ eyes will just glaze over.
I have no doubt that there are individual players and fans who feel offended at a snub, but I just can’t see how this is a big deal.
I don’t, alas. A Play Index rough-cut check of players whose first year in the majors was 2004 or earlier and last year was 2013 yields 71 potential candidates, some of whom (such as Jeremy Bonderman) did not have the requisite 10 seasons in the majors. One could easily introduce games played thresholds (different for pitchers and position players) that cut the list down to 40-45.
For historical perspective, the 1960 BBWAA ballot included 134 candidates, a number that I think we’d all conclude is excessive and glaze-inducing. By the next time around, in 1962, that was down to 79, then 58 in 1964, and 49 in 1966. Only twice since then did it climb above 50 (1979 and ’80), and it hasn’t been as high as 40 since 1991.
I didn’t realize the list of candidates meeting the 10 year minimum was that high. Given that the nomination process is culling so many people, it actually makes a bit more sense to me. “70 candidates is too many for voters to deal with so we’ll cut it down to 35” makes a lot more sense than “41 candidates is too many so we’ll cut it down to 35”.
Here are some active players who, if they retired tomorrow, would meet the eligibility requirements five years from now:
Matt Belisle
Boone Logan
Mike Dunn
Kevin Jepson
Bud Norris
Gregor Blanco
Sean Rodriguez
Luis Valbuena
I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Hall of Fame ballot can do without them.
Totally true, but:
a) I’m a Giants fan and Gregor Blanco is in the hall of fame of my heart and
b) what’s the distinction between those guys and, like, Ted Lilly? None of them are likely to get any votes.
Ted Lilly made multiple All Star teams and there was a moment around 2009 or so where he was considered, if not an ace, at least a potential postseason difference maker.
OK – we can agree that they aren’t HOF’ers. Why not include them though? What’s the harm?
I would hope that voters could look at most lists of names and immediately disposition those that don’t warrant a second glance. And even if you can’t – so what? Given the relative importance of this job, asking folks to spend a few extra minutes once a year hardly feels like an excessive burden.
Sean Rodriguez is already immortalized in the 1973 crime/thriller “Serpico”.
A WAR threshold of something like 30, 25, or 20 bWAR would be very fast to apply with the advantage of not leaving out a single player even worth arguing about as a candidate.
That would unfairly affect relief pitchers, who even among the Hall of Famers have a much lower threshold for WAR.
Besides, WAR isn’t an official or even a consistently calculated stat, so I don’t it’s possible to use it for something like that.
This is one of the most compelling, interesting reads I have come across on FG. Nice work, Jay.
Jay,
This popped up on Meg’s chat today:
” Is FG worried about someday losing Jaffe to the HOF itself? If I was in charge of hiring at Cooperstown he’d be working there already…”
And Meg’s reply was:
“I worry about everyone leaving all the time because I am a worrier, but I imagine if that were a path Jay wanted it would have already happened by now.”
I thought this was intriguing question and wondered; if it didn’t preclude you from writing for an outside publication, would you be interested in being formally associated with the Hall of Fame?
I’ve never been asked that question, but Meg need not worry about this particular hypothetical anytime soon. The short answer is that at this stage of my life, I love what I’m doing, which is covering baseball year-round — games, players, news, transactions, etc. as well as the Hall of Fame cycle — and I’m in a great place to do it at FanGraphs. Eight years into being a BBWAA member, I am determined to stick around and earn the right to vote in Hall of Fame elections. If I were to join the Hall, I would have to give up doing critical evaluations of the candidates, the process and the institution. There may be a stage of my life where that makes sense — if I were undertaking a research project where regular access to the HOF library were required, for example — but it’s not in the foreseeable future.
Is this headline a reference to “Voodoo Chile (Slight Return)?” If so, bravo you magnificent SOBs. If not, that’s an amazing coincidence
Indeed. Been spinning Electric Ladyland with some frequency over the past two weeks while eying that 50th anniversary deluxe box.
Anyone with 67 bWar is probably a Hall of Famer. It’s shocking they left Willie Davis off the ballot. But he is 53 fWAR which is a borderline case. Still, to not include on the ballot is shocking. Must have been really disliked as a person.
Jay has written that the best predictor of how the old-timers committees will vote is how well the player did in the baseball writers vote. So I guess willie would have a really hard time given that he didn’t even make the ballot.
I’d like to see him get a fair shot though – he’s a lot closer than the guys who routinely make the old-timers ballots
Hopefully they don’t snub Nyjer Morgan or Brian Wilson.
Jay, great article and thanks for the insights into the rest of the story. You kinda got me thinking beyond the numbers. In reality Cooperstown is a collection of narratives for most viewers going to visit the Hall. I realize it’s more than that for players and baseball purists… However it’s also the story of the history of baseball- it makes me rethink some of the opinions I’ve held in the past. Thank you for that.