Small-Sample Theater in the Postseason: The Justinification

We’re now two games deep in both League Championship Series, which makes it a good time to take stock of some of the small-sample stuff that makes up the postseason. As before, I’ll note that there’s always some danger in ascribing too much meaning to the numbers underlying the wins and losses. That said, it’s difficult not to notice certain trends and, having noticed them, not to connect them with what we’ve seen over the course of the regular season. Inclusive of the Wild Card and Division Series rounds, as well, here’s what has caught my eye over the past week.

Justin Time I

On the heels of last year’s championship run, Justin Verlander continues to stand out in October — relative not only to the other frontline pitchers of this current postseason but to a generation of October veterans. Here’s a quick look at the nine starters who have taken two turns thus far in this postseason, ranked by cumulative Game Score (Version 2):

By this measure, Verlander places a whisker behind Wade Miley — but only a whisker — and just ahead of Cole. Remarkably, the two Astros are the only ones from this group to last at least five innings in both turns — which says something about how quick managers have been with their hooks in the postseason (more on which below). The Astros’ Game One ALCS victory basically guarantees that Verlander will get at least one more turn, either later in this series or in the World Series.

Along with the strong regular season work in Houston that has helped him make strides towards Cooperstown, Verlander has really bulked up his postseason resumé since being traded from the Tigers. He’s now high on the leaderboard in several categories, alongside some other big names from the Wild Card era, all of whom were similarly aided by the introduction of the expanded playoff format. Pitcher wins, meh — I mention them in this context only because you’ll hear about them elsewhere, with or without me — but his total of 13 ranks fourth behind Tom Glavine (14), John Smoltz (15), and Andy Pettitte (19). Verlander is tied for sixth in starts (23) with John Lackey and CC Sabathia, and will take sole possession with his next outing. There he trails Smoltz (27), Greg Maddux (30), Roger Clemens (34), Glavine (35), and Pettitte (40). His 146.1 total postseason innings rank seventh, with sixth-ranked Jon Lester (154) within his reach this year; the all-time leader, Pettitte, (276.2) has nearly twice as many innings.

Where Verlander does have a shot at claiming an all-time record at some point is in strikeouts:

For Verlander to catch up with Smoltz this October — say, by producing three more starts with 12 strikeouts each — would be quite a stretch, even if the Astros do repeat as AL champions. Only once in his postseason career has Verlander notched more than 11 Ks in a single October outing: 13 in a complete-game win over the Yankees in Game Two of last year’s ALCS.

The Starter/Reliever Split

As noted, this postseason has been notable for quick hooks in general and the opener/bullpen-day strategy employed by the A’s and Brewers, specifically. Here’s where things stand with regards to the percentages of innings thrown by starters and relievers:

Of the four LCS teams, the only one with more innings thrown by its bullpen is the Brewers, whose starters (or “starters”) have nonetheless been extremely effective, allowing one run and nine hits in 20.1 innings thus far. The Astros and Dodgers have, by and large, gotten very effective work from their starters and so have been able to stick with a traditional model. The Red Sox have had to work short with both Price and Sale due to their performances; only the former’s Division Series-opening start has lasted five innings.

Historically speaking, this is a relatively new trend. As recently as three years ago, starters threw 60.5% of postseason innings. But that share fell to 56.8% in 2016, then to 53.4% last year, and it’s fallen again this year.

Within that four-season window, what’s interesting is that, while relievers had generally done a better job of preventing runs than starters, the tide has turned this year:

This may just be noise, or it may be the effect of pitchers facing fewer hitters the third or the fourth time through the order. It’s a subject worth a closer look as the postseason continues.

Justin Time II

No player in the NLCS experienced a bigger change in fortunes from Game One to Game Two than Justin Turner. One of Friday’s goats (0-for-5 with four strikeouts), Turner emerged as the hero on Saturday via his game-winning, eighth-inning homer off Jeremy Jeffress. That 0-for-5 marked just the second time in 21 postseason games over the past two Octobers in which Turner has failed to get on base. Indeed, the rakin’ redhead has become one of the greatest on-base machines in October history:

That’s some good company, including four Hall of Famers and two players that should be there someday. The one relatively unfamiliar name there is Woodling, who was more or less the regular left fielder on the Yankees during their run of five straight championships from 1949 to -53. In all five World Series, he posted a .348 OBP or better and an .848 OPS or better.

Turner, whose postseason resumé includes a walk-off homer off the Cubs’ John Lackey in Game Two of last year’s NLCS en route to series MVP honors, is also high on the career leaderboard for postseason Win Probability Added. With a hat-tip to Dan Szymborski for his previous work in this area:

There you can see Freese, the 2011 NLCS and World Series MVP, has done enough this October to climb into the to 10. Just outside of this frame is the Astros’ George Springer, who thanks in large part to his two-run double off David Price on Sunday night, climbed to 15th at 1.692.

Substitution Solution

Thus far, no manager in this postseason has gotten more out of his bench than Dave Roberts. In their quest to win the championship that eluded them last year, the Dodgers have built a very deep team, with a ton of positional flexibility. Roberts, who is liable to platoon at every position except catcher, shortstop, and third base, hasn’t been shy about pulling the levers in-game, not only to bat for his pitchers but to get his hitters the platoon advantage or to make double-switches — to the point of leaving himself without another position player on the bench, even — and it’s paid off in a major way.

Here are the combined hitting stats for all substitutes, including pitchers, so yes, this includes Brandon Woodruff’s shocking home run, just the third by a reliever in postseason history:

Four of the 10 postseason teams never got a hit from anybody who didn’t start a game before being eliminated. Of the AL teams, only one has gotten an extra-base hit from a sub. (The Astros’ Tony Kemp doubled in Game One of the ALCS.) The Dodgers have gotten eight hits and five walks thus far, including Max Muncy’s homer in Game Three of the NLDS, Freese’s go-ahead two-run pinch-single in Game Four of the NLDS, and a total of four hits and one walk from Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson in Game Two of the NLCS, all from the seventh inning on, as the Dodgers turned a 3-0 deficit into a 4-3 win.

The Brewers’ subs got three hits in their NLCS Game One win, namely Woodruff’s homer, Domingo Santana’s two-run pinch-single, which chased Kershaw, and a Travis Shaw single. They were 0-for-3 with a walk in Game 2.

During the regular season, the Dodgers and Brewers had the most and the best pinch-hitters in the league, with the former getting a 106 wRC+ (.239/.341/.395) in 352 plate appearances and the latter a 103 wRC+ (.244/.327/.424) in 284 PA. So far in the postseason, Dodgers pinch-hitters are 4-for-10 with three walks. Santana’s single and a walk he drew in Game Three of the NLDS are the only two times Brewers pinch-hitters have reached base in 12 plate appearances. The Rockies (2-for-7 with a walk) are the only team besides the Dodgers with multiple pinch hits in this postseason.