Jhoulys Chacin’s Matchup Problem

After throwing Jhoulys Chacin on short rest for the division title two weeks ago and then in Game Two of the NLDS against Colorado shortly after that, Brewers manager Craig Counsell opted to skip Chacin for the first two games of the NLCS against the Dodgers. As I noted last week, the move made sense: while Chacin functions as the club’s nominal ace, the Brewers nevertheless gained an advantage over the Dodgers by throwing two left-handed starters.

The plan very nearly worked: Milwaukee took the first game of the series, then took a 3-2 lead into the eighth of Game Two before the bullpen coughed up the victory. With the series headed back to Los Angeles, Chacin will get his first start of the NLCS after eight days of rest. The Dodgers could provide some matchup problems for Chacin.

Jhoulys Chacin has always had platoon issues. By that standard, this season was no different. Against right-handers this year, Chacin struck out 24% of batters, walked 7%, and gave up a homer to one out of every 56 batters. When at a platoon disadvantage, however, Chacin struck out just 15% of batters, walked 11%, and gave up a homer to one out of every 37 batters he faced. The Dodgers — thanks in part to lefties Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson, and also switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal — put up an MLB-best 124 wRC+ (non-pitchers) against right-handed pitching this season. It’s clear, in light of this, why Counsell might have avoided using Chacin for a few games after a heavy recent workload and a couple lefty options. Moving Chacin’s game to Los Angeles also meant moving away from Miller Park, the third-best stadium in baseball for left-handed home runs. The Dodgers do play in a park that is homer-friendly for lefties, but not to the extent of Milwaukee.

The thing to watch, in particular, will be how Chacin’s slider fares against Dodgers hitters. This season, the Dodgers have been one of the very best teams in baseball against right-handed sliders, per Baseball Savant.

These numbers alone don’t tell the complete story, however, as a left-heavy lineup such as the one possessed by Dodgers is going to see fewer righty sliders. Pitch-sequencing also plays a big role in the effectiveness of a pitch. To get a more specific idea of how the Dodgers might perform tonight against Chacin, here are the Dodgers’ expected starters for Game Three and their numbers against right-handed sliders both (a) this season and (b) over the past five years.

It’s difficult to know what conclusions to draw from these numbers. Enrique Hernandez has been good this year but terrible in years past. It’s possible a more contact-oriented approach overall has helped him improve on a pitch against which he has previously struggled. Based on these numbers, it would appear the players most likely to succeed for the Dodgers are Justin Turner and Yasiel Puig with Yasmani Grandal having the potential to struggle. While not predictive, I do feel compelled to note that Chacin had his worst start of the season against the Dodgers. On August 2, he struck out three, walked four, and gave up home runs to Cody Bellinger (slider inside), Joc Pederson (splitter), and Yasiel Puig (slider).

Chacin’s slider isn’t exactly an ordinary offering, either. As Jeff Sullivan detailed prior to Chacin’s start against the Rockies, the slider has been one of the best pitches in all baseball. Chacin backed up Sullivan’s words by throwing the pitch 39 times and getting eight whiffs and another eight called strikes. Sullivan noted the massive increase in slider usage over the past few years, so I asked Chacin about that increase following his performance against Colorado.

Here’s his response:

Well, actually what happened last year in San Diego, when I signed with them, the first thing they told me was to use my slider more to lefties, because lefties, those are the hitters that [give me] more trouble. [T]hey said I didn’t throw [my slider] much to lefties, and the little that I used to throw, I got them out. I started working out a lot in spring training backwards and back foot, and, just like, [had] a good year last year and didn’t change anything for this year. Actually, [I] was trying just to get another pitch and use my changeup or splitter. But still, like you said, just throw my slider more than anything else and just having success. I’m not going to change that.

In his piece, Sullivan put in a five-game rolling graph of Chacin’s slider usage that backs up the righty’s point.

To add some further detail regarding Chacin’s increased usage to lefties, here are his yearly usage totals against both sides of the plate.

Before we get to lefties, let’s take a brief look at the pitch against right-handers. The heat maps below show the slider to right-handers from 2012 to -16, then 2017, then 2018.

Not too much has changed. Chacin seems to have thrown the pitch a little bit more in the zone, but some of that is probably necessity given he uses the pitch more than 50% of the time against right-handers. When he gets ahead, Chacin can tempt hitters to chase outside the zone, like the strikeout of Nolan Arenado last game.

What we see against righties is typical slider usage, as the pitch goes down and away. Chacin used to throw the pitch in the same location to lefties, as well. Over the past two years, however, a different pattern has emerged. Chacin started to pitch backwards, like he mentioned. The data, again, support his claim:

We can see Chacin starting to pitch to the outside corner more in 2017. He did it enough in 2018 that two central locations show up. Sullivan already showed what the outside pitch looks like, so we will repeat that below.

That pitch could be important for Chacin as he navigates the lefties in the Dodgers’ lineup because none of them hit the ball to the opposite field with any regularity.

All four of the Dodgers’ left-handed hitters are below average when it comes to taking the ball to the opposite field. They are all power pull hitters, which isn’t a bad thing in itself but which might mean they’re less inclined to jump on a first-pitch slider on the outer part of the zone. Muncy seems the most likely, and he does have good results going to the opposite field, but it still isn’t a big part of his game. Bellinger and Pederson have good numbers going to the opposite field, as well, though some of that is grounders against the shift that were likely unintentional. These batters are much more likely to wait for a slider that comes inside or catches more of the strike zone. That’s something we might see tonight, though most of the damage done by lefties against Chacin has come against the sinker.

Jhoulys Chacin is having a very good postseason, but he will be facing his most difficult test with a very good Dodgers lineup. Chacin’s ability to get swings and outs with his slider is likely to be key. Los Angeles knows what’s coming, and their ability to recognize the pitch and swing at strikes could make the difference tonight.