Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/15/18

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Noon: A Time for Chats

12:00
Bear32: Buxton?  What’s going on?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Well, besides injuries, I don’t have the foggiest clue.

12:01
Jim Leyland Palmer: With taking a step back in his second year and his colossal struggles this postseason, has your outlook on Cody Bellinger changed?

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Tempered slightly (the year, not the small sample of six specific games), but not really changed.

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Nobody thought that 143 OPS+ was a baseline that he’d only go up from. A step back was expected.

12:03
Dan Szymborski: Well, maybe not expected but a very open possibility?

12:03
Sir Mookleton McBetts: Is the Astros grabbing Osuna the sleaziest move of the year? I mean, no other team was willing and they basically got an elite Bullpen arm for nothing. Am I overreacting?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: From a moral standpoint, yes.

12:03
Dan Szymborski: But from an analyst standpoint, I understand we live in the real world, too.

12:04
carrotjuice: What do roughly expect from Jon Lester on a going forward basis?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: #2 guy or so.

12:04
Sir Mookleton McBetts: Jeffress seems to have lost it lately. He was so dominant, but has looked really hittable lately. It doesn’t look like his velo is down, what changed?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: He’s had command spells at times.

12:04
Dan Szymborski: poor command spells

12:04
LFC Mike: Urine in the windshield washer fluid container?…Did you poop on the windshield wipers too?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: That’s not very efficient.

12:05
The Cat’s Meow: In an alternative universe someone has  a pet hedgehog with a Galileo-like  stuffed animal as a chew toy.

12:05
Dan Szymborski: It’s not Galileo’s toy, it’s Cassiopeia’s!

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Galileo has no use for toys. The only objects he has interest in are either edible or places from which he likes to sit and exclude other cats from.

12:06
jkim: I spent all of the Dodgers/Brewers off-day binging  American Vandal. have you seen it?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: I have not.

12:06
Jackson C.: Would it be too rash for the Red Sox to go to closer by committee considering Kimbrel’s struggles?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s premature

12:06
Rickety Cricket: Who’d be harder to strike out? A batter that is a foot tall or a batter that is 100 feet tall.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Foot tall obviously.

12:06
LFC Mike: Do Vlad Jr’s ZIP projections automatically increase everyday without you doing anything?  He has actually made a few outs in the AFL so far.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: I have to tell ZiPS to do things. I’m not smart enough to fully automate the tangled mess.

12:07
Dbo: Dan, my sister made butternut squash chili with beans and no meat. I told her it wasn’t chili and was just butternut squash stew and we got in a fight. Anyways…I think I got myself uninvited to family thanksgiving, do you have an extra spot at your table?

12:07
Dan Szymborski: We usually do it at my sister’s now!

12:07
Dan Szymborski: You should try to get to family thanksgiving and then give thanks to “real chili, that without beans”

12:07
Jack: Dan, thanks for all the work! Regarding your Phillies elegy: apart from the big money player sweepstakes, and specifically with run prevention in mind, what FA players would be best for them to target with defense in mind?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: The Hoskins/Santana pickle would be harder to fix with a signing

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, if you look at free agent signings, there aren’t a lot of glove guys at teh positions they really need to upgrade defense

12:09
Dan Szymborski: I’m still hoping Crawford t urns things around

12:09
Guest: How bad would Trout have to be in 2019 (without getting injured) to not be the best projected player going into 2020?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: I think that’s more of a Q when I’ve done all the projections! That way I’ll have everyone for 2020 fresh

12:09
Hello: What do you do at 1B if you’re the 2019 Mets?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: If I’m the 2019 Mets, the dumbest possible thing, so Bruce

12:09
A Tribe Called Kipnis: Ever make breakfast chili?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Breakfast chili is just chili that’s eaten at breakfast.

12:10
All Cats Are Beautiful : What does ZiPS project for Greg Bird going forward? Who are his comps?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Not doing request until finals are coming out!

12:10
Loge Kendall: I’m finding a lot of the National commentary on the Brewers’ pitching usage so far to be extremely intellectually lazy. Many actually blamed “bullpenning” on the game 2 loss!

12:10
Dan Szymborski: A lot of national commentary is lazy

12:10
Dan Szymborski: see the obsession with playoff stats as something predictive

12:10
Dan Szymborski: or dumbass slice-of-a-slice-of-a-slice splits

12:11
Dan Szymborski: I swear during Rockies/Cubs I heard one of the broadcasters talking about a hitter’s last 10 at-bats with RISP

12:11
Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: Removing the Royals from consideration, does Alcides Escobar even get a minor league deal this offseason?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:11
Oliver: Can/should the Padres trade Wil Myers this winter and, if so, what could they get for him?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: They should try, but I don’t think they’ll get a ton really

12:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think a team would give Myers 3/66 with a team option (or therabouts, I don’t have the exact numbers) this offseason

12:12
Steve “Joe” N.: Did Kyle Seager have a bad year or is he a wrap?

12:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s DONE DONE, but this is his second down year in a row, so I’m very worried

12:12
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: If you were transported back to 1960 as installed the GM as the worst team in the league but still had the ability to run ZiPS, how quickly would you be able to win a pennant?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, being a GM is also an administrative job and I don’t think I’d be good at that.

12:13
Dan Szymborski: Though since ZiPS would still contain the stats of every player so I’d have it to look up, fairly quickly I’d think.

12:13
Dan Szymborski: Knowing the future is very valuable!

12:14
Airport Banana: Why does Fenway Park have such a terrible playoff atmosphere?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: I couldn’t say. A lot of people say that, but I’ve never been to Fenway for a playoff game.

12:14
Arthur: The Indians could really inject some new life into their roster if they trade a starter and, with their depth, they could probably live with it. But would they?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if the depth is THAT strong that they should be swapping one of their top guys

12:15
Dan Szymborski: They’re in win-now mode, trades ought to be more swaps of timeframe than swaps of current strength

12:15
Dan Szymborski: It’s a reason that challenge trades are still relatively rare

12:17
Xam: Kike Hernandez = Justin Turner 2.0?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly looking like it to a degree

12:18
Gurp: Stros in 6 or 7?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: 7

12:18
Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: Jake Junis or Brad Keller?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: Keller hands down

12:18
All Rise: Chances Trout is a Yankee in ’20/’21?

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Fairly low

12:19
No. 2 pencil: So, the Angels are apparently administering a 2 hour written test for their managerial opening. What question(s) would you include on the test? I, personally, don’t think a 2000 word essay on why Mike Trout is the greatest is too much to ask for.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: I’d have to think about specifics, but I’d get out of specific X player or Y player questions and try to get to the underlying philosophy

12:20
Dan Szymborski: I certainly wouldn’t administer it as a written test.

12:20
AKA22: Who is available that the Braves can go after to play RF next season? How can they possibly replace the production of Markakis!?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: You do realize that Markakis was pretty awful in the second-half. He ended up having a solid season, not some irreplaceable one.

12:22
Dan Szymborski: And the reality is, they’re evaluating how someone replaces Markakis’s *2019* performance, because that’s what they would get if they were bringing him back.

12:23
Dan Szymborski: I think if the Braves are quiet, Camargo eventually in a corner with Riley at third eventually replaces him easily

12:23
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : You know, I love all the Fangraph chats, but I think I appreciate yours the most because It’s on a Monday, the most difficult work day.

12:23
Dan Szymborski: So temporal, not content based?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Someone remembered I have the emotes on!

12:23
Dan Szymborski: (that someone being me, how has there not been a poop yet?)

12:24
AKA22: Joey Gallo had a very nice second half. Think he figured something out, or just luck driving the improvements?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS keeps expecting him to have a BABIP in the .260s, so there likely was a lot of real in there.

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Unless ZiPS is just wrong

12:25
O’s Nos: Realizing you will not have context for this American Vandal-related question, but which major leaguer would most likely be the Turd Burglar?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Jose Reyes

12:25
All Rise: Do you trust Buehler in Game 3 or Kershaw in Game 5 to have a better outing?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Still Kershaw

12:25
Airport Banana: Jeremy Jeffress has also had some really bad batted ball luck. The Machado hit on Friday and the infield dribbler before the Turner homer were perfect pitches. And he’s got epilepsy for crying out loud.

12:25
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: How did you become crazy cat person?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I have the ratio of cat: sqft to be a crazy cat person.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: I have 3 cats in 3000 square feet

12:26
Food Matters: Dan..as we hit the wonderful fall season and the air has that  chill in it..what is your favorite “fall” type food to watch baseball or football games with?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if I have a “fall” specific sports food

12:26
Dan Szymborski: I like buffalo wings, but that’s not really a fall thing?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: And tacos are for all seasons

12:27
AKA22: 100 foot tall batter has knees maybe 33 feet high? Hard to throw a strike up there.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: Good point

12:27
Dan Szymborski: but 33 feet isn’t that hard

12:27
O’s Nos: If Chris Davis was a free agent, would he get a major league deal?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: No

12:27
hscer: thank you for not running your way-too-early Phillies projection on Bryce Harper

12:27
Dan Szymborski: Thought it was cheating

12:27
Slew: Regarding the “foot tall batter” question: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Gaedel

12:27
O’s Nos: Breakfast chili is served over hash browns with an egg on top

12:27
Dan Szymborski: That’s just breakfast that has chili on it

12:27
Dan Szymborski: that’s not breakfast chili

12:28
Dan Szymborski: if I put a mini umbrella in a taco it doens’t become a tropical taco. It’s just a taco larping as a daquiri

12:29
hscer: did anyone blame the game 2 loss on bullpenning, rather than the vice versa stated earlier?

12:29
Dan Szymborski: There’s lots of column pages to fill in the postseason on a few games, so I think pretty much every bad argument probably exists somewhere.

12:29
Nick Neidert: Enough pitches to start for Miami assuming health?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: If his curve develops

12:30
Dan Szymborski: He’s good at pitching as opposed to throwing, so I dont think it has to be amazing

12:30
Dbo: Do we start saying LOLOrioles since they clearly out Mets’ed the Mets this year?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: The Orioles actually seemed to realize the position they were in later in the season

12:31
Stevil: Who’s the odd man out in Washington if they’re actually able to bring Harper back?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: I think you see Robles as part of a package for a big acquisition if Harper returns

12:31
kevinthecomic: Best part of Brewers in the playoffs is more Front Row Amy!

12:31
Guest: landing spots for Sonny Gray?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: Airports are traditional.

12:31
Drew Smyly: Would you move him back into the rotation for next year?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Not at first

12:32
O’s Nos: Would you fall out of your chair if a national broadcaster mentioned a player’s batting line against a particular pitch type and then noted that the new pitcher throws one of the better version of that pitch?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: I’m overweight, so when I’m in a chair, it’s more difficult to knock me out of it than the average person.

12:33
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: While everyone complains about the national media’s ignorance on stats, shouldn’t we realize they are supposed to tell the narrative of what happened as opposed to telling stats about predictive outcomes? I get that old school stats are useless for advancing the game forward, but they’re useful in telling about the actual outcomes of games.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: There’s more than predictive outcomes

12:33
Dan Szymborski: And the fact is, they *do* use some of that crap in a predictive manner.

12:33
Morbo: Why do national broadcasts continually refuse to include persons from the Monster demographic, asking for a friend.

12:34
Dan Szymborski: An Avenue Q reference I’m not getting?

12:34
CamdenWarehouse: The Orioles 1B/DH count is down. They’d trade for Myers to get back to 4

12:34
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : For the last half of the season, we were following J. D. Martinez and his quest for the triple crown, only to have Christian Yelich sneak up on us and almost win in the last week. Weird. Yelich is a fine player, but if you had asked me at the start of the season who were the top ten most likely to win the 3XC, I don’t think I would have put Yelich on that list. I’m not old enough to remember when Yaz & Frank Robinson won theirs–were they surprises, like Yelich would have been, or more like Cabrera?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Amusingly, Yelich probably has a better case than Cabrera for MVP given that there was no Trout in the NL (well, except for degrom, but too many writers don’t like voting pitchers for MVP)

12:36
Dan Szymborski: This is what I wrote about Yelich in my breakout piece last winter.

12:36
Dan Szymborski:

12:36
Tom: Without going into specific as finals are coming out, but how ‘accurate’ has ZIPS been with non US league/ players.  Thinking NPB, KBO imports, (plus my personal favorite in Po-Jung Wang)

12:37
Dan Szymborski: Definitely a good bit less accurate than with MLB–>MLB and even AAA–>MLB.

12:37
Morbo: Dan! Learn to delegate

12:37
Alcidese Escobar’s Hell: My cat has a Dan Szymborski stuffed animal he plays with in the litter box.

12:37
botchatheny: can you reveal date for cards elegy?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: End of this week, beginning of next week. We’ve been doing them around the news cycle so holding off when big postseason story

12:38
Dan Szymborski: I have Pirates, Mariners, Diamondbacks to go before Cardinals

12:38
kevinthecomic: Re: Fenway’s bad playoff atmosphere — it’s cold!

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Nothing is colder than a San Francisco summer.

12:38
PD: Fenway’s atmosphere sucks because all of the real fans were watching the Patriots play.

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Ouch

12:38
AngelusNovus: Who’s your Orioles 2019 dark horse mvp…Villar? Mullins?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Nunez

12:38
Rita: Is 2019 a make or break year for Manuel Margot? And do you think he’s more likely to make or break?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: I think it IS an important year for him. I’m still a believer.

12:39
AngelusNovus: Do you think Dylan Bundy is fixable? Seems like a guy the rays would trade for, have him throw 3 innings of slider/cutters every 4 days, and reap the rewards.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: I think he’d be fixable on another team to a degree.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: So much crap just hanging

12:39
Dbo: When is a Moneyball’esque movie coming out about you creating ZiPS? They should cast Brad Pitt as one of your cats

12:39
Dan Szymborski: It’d be a rather uninteresting movie honestly.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Mostly a chubby mid-20s dude playing video games and working in Excel/Statistica

12:40
Dan Szymborski: And without philip seymour hoffman, who could capture the feel and the gravitas?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: (I kid, of course)

12:40
All Cats Are Beautiful : How many people have seen the entire ZiPS code?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: I think 3 and some cats

12:41
Morbo: way too early prediction which non-Mets team is the biggest disappointment of 2019?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Rockies could be if they don’t address their fundamental issues

12:41
Dan Szymborski: They’ve been riding on having everything go right with the pitching and having two MVP candidates in the lineup every eyar

12:41
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : The Mets were very patient with onetime top prospect Zack Wheeler, and he finally fulfilled that promise this year, five years after his initial appearance with the club. Who are the other players who have been disappointing so far who might finally break through this year?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Now this I’m saving for aticles!

12:42
Poncho: I love the way you’re ZiPSing prospects in your Elegy series but the Padres have more interesting prospects than you could get to. What does ZiPS think about Urias and Mejia next year?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: It’s only a sneak preview of a prelim projections. The ZiPS team-by-teams will go up as usual

12:42
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: I bet Ned Yost makes a good chili

12:42
Rockpile: Do you think the Rockies could move some of their bad reliever contracts this offseason by matching up for a bad position player contract? I’d be in to getting Jay Bruce from the Mets if we could get him for Jake McGee or something like that.

12:42
Dan Szymborski: Rockies should be more interested in eating bad contracts than swapping problems, honestly

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Bruce would have been fine for this year only since they weren’t going to trust a Tapia or something

12:43
Dan Szymborski: but that shouldn’t be what they do going forward

12:43
James: How much do you trust Kimbrel at this point?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: He’s no longer elite, but unless it appears he’s “Going Wohlers,” I don’t think panicking over a few bad outings is a good idea

12:45
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Angels Test:  1.  Do you bench Albert Pujols?  2.  Are you sure?  3.  Do you need a ride to the airport because we are done?

12:45
Matt: The Mets are administering a two question written test to GM candidates. Question 1 – do you like to spend money? Question 2 – Is Jeff Wilpon the smartest or the smartestest?

12:45
James: With Sale having an illness and Porcello throwing yesterday, how do you see Boston’s pitching shaking out the rest of the way?

12:45
Dan Szymborski: I think it REALLy depends on just how Sale is feeling, which is kind of unknowable

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I don’t th ink Porcello’s inning changes his start

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Consider it his throwing day between starts

12:47
Dan Szymborski: I believe they’re hopeful on getting Sale back

12:47
Dan Szymborski: They might have to get a Rodriguez start in there if he’s not

12:47
Pablo: Is Mike Trout’s greatness leading other players to get underrated? There seems to be a narrative out there that Trout should win MVP every year, largely in part as a response to the fact that he’s at an inherent disadvantage because the Angels suck, but it seems like this leads Mookie Betts to get knocked down a peg despite being more than half a win better than Trout this year.

12:47
Dan Szymborski: It’s actually possible, but I think it’s more likely that the players that are actually challenging Trout this year are also very well-rounded

12:48
Dan Szymborski: And very well-rounded players without the one ULTRASEXY stat (though Betts has BA this year) tend to be underrated

12:49
Mac: How does Zips handle LOOGYs and platoon players? Does it just assume the player faces the same ratio of righties: lefties as he has in the past?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Yup. I try to avoid telling ZiPS to do something specific unless I have to (a player definitely being moved to a position or stuff like that) or I’m doing a secnario

12:49
hscer: what I want to know is if those Angels managerial candidates are having to take these tests at a Pearson center

12:49
botchatheny: zips is gonna destroys wainos 2019, right?  why did the cards sign him?  other than him like, being a nice guy or something

12:50
LFC Mike: Sell me on Gore as your favorite pitching prospect.

12:50
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll have four plus pitches by the time he reaches the majors and I”m not worried about blisters

12:50
Dan Szymborski: But I could be wrong, Whitley may be better

12:51
Dan Szymborski: (and it was who I would take if I was starting a team, I’ll go with the riskier, younger guy generally in this scenario)

12:51
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: If the Angels are considering anyone from the Cardinals for manager, I bet he gets the job since he will already have the test answer key.

12:51
All Cats Are Beautiful : I’d like the players fight for 2 rule changes in the next CBA.

1. The MLBPA has a right to match any offer when a team is up for sale.
2. The MLBPA may own multiple teams.

No more greedy owners in a generation or so if the players are the owners.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: You’d have some weird results.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Plus a consortium of players may not be properly capitalized

12:51
CamdenWarehouse: any idea when the next game chats are?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think we’ve talked about it yet

12:51
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : When you start liking the smell of cat urine, then you have crossed an important threshold on the way to becoming a crazy cat person.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: I like the smell of cat urine?

12:51
Guest: If you put fish on a taco, it becomes a fish taco

12:51
Dan Szymborski: It’s just a taco

12:52
Mac: How would an ump be able to judge the strike zone for said 100-ft man (assuming he’s normal)?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Inaccurately and full of entitlement. Which they normally do anyway

12:52
Morbo: O’s Nos that’s called a slinger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slinger_(dish)

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Wow, the picture is very unappetizing

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Wikipedia couldn’t find a sexier free-rights picture?

12:53
A different Matt: A 1 foot batter also could not swing a regulation bat most likely, so you would only need to hit the proper zone

12:53
Dan Szymborski: That’s a damn small proper zone

12:53
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : “Larping”? I keep forgetting that all you Fangraphs chatters are much younger than I am.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: I’m 40

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Though that could be much younger than you

12:53
Awesome Sauce: Man, I’m sick of hearing about the “terrible playoff atmosphere” at Fenway.  Let people enjoy baseball how they like!  The fans are clearly watching the game intently.  Is performative fandom really necessary?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: I’m hip to the gnarly youth culture, fellow students.

12:54
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Every Monday we ask you Q’s and you give us A’s.  If roles were reversed, what would you want to ask us?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: WHERE DID MY CAT PUT THE DAMN TOY HEDGEHOG

12:54
Dan Szymborski: it hasn’t shown up for days and she’s meowing it.

12:54
Shauncore: Hey Dan, you’re an all around good guy who hates the Royals just like me. I just want to say hey and hope that you love me as much as I love you.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Why are you guys bullying Newkirk? It’s not a good look.

12:55
hscer: which makes me think maybe that *was* Drew Smyly!

12:55
hscer: I think that’s the first time I’ve ever seen someone use a player’s name in the chat but not pretend to be that player

12:55
All Cats Are Beautiful : Who’s your favorite Star Trek captain?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Sisko

12:55
Maximum Munchies: How have veteran pitchers like Anibal Sanchez and Gio Gonzalez been able to find a renaissance in performance this year? More so mechanics or more about tinkering the deployment of existing arsenal?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: I should note that Gio received Cy Young votes last year

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Sanchez has been good in the past, it’s been helpful he’s been better at not throwing complete garbagey meat into wheelhouses

12:57
RickDickNick: Which teams are seriously in on only one of Harper and Machado?  besides the yanks (Machado only)

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Too soon to know

12:57
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Rate the accuracy of the following:

Jeremy Jeffress is getting tired and badly needs a day off
Brewers’ pitcher offense is a significant factor in the NLCS

12:57
Dan Szymborski: must…find…relevant…image

12:58
Dan Szymborski: While I look for it, enjoy Carson beating up Manny.

12:58
Dan Szymborski:

1:00
Dan Szymborski:

1:00
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Also to rate: A chili cheese dog with beans is a sandwich

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Stop

1:00
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Which current major leaguer would you cast as the lead in Jesus Christ Superstar?

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Charlie Blackmon, though I don’t know if he’s lean enough

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Can Chris Sale grow a huge beard? Or is he too gumby-esque despite him eating like he’s challenging Kobayashi?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Or maybe we get a non-white guy to play someone who would not have been western european

1:01
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, I haven’t given it much thought

1:01
Morbo: No I’m Morbo, the news monster from futurama. Thus my interest in monster related broadcasting

1:02
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Front Row Amy and Marlins Man: Superfan power couple?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Marlins Man is too commercial

1:02
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: What could the Rockies give up to land Goldschmidt?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Their delusions and some prospects

1:02
Billy Beane: Ned Yost is from the west coast (Dublin, CA to be specific). I have doubts about his chili.

1:02
Dbo: Would it be breakfast chili if you used bacon or breakfast sausage as the primary meat base?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: No, it would be a delicious dish by another name

1:02
diadem: Are we seeing the death of the “closer” as we know it and the birth of closer by comittee era?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Slowly

1:02
All Cats Are Beautiful : Are there teams that regularly over/underperform zips projections?  What do you do about it?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Not in a fashion I’ve found as predictive

1:02
O’s Nos: Danny, you’re one hep cat

1:02
LFC Mike: Alcides Escobar snuck into your house and stole your hedgehog.

1:03
Ryan: Machado’s defensive numbers at SS were appalling with Baltimore but quite good with LA.  Do you think he’s legitimately improved his SS defense to the point that he should be considered by potential suitors as a real SS option, or is the difference more due to the teams’ differing use of defensive positioning?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s possible, but you also want to be careful about taking data differences TOO seriously

1:03
Dan Szymborski: I have little doubt the Dodgers were much better than the Orioles at looking at data

1:03
Dan Szymborski: but the fact remains that it STILL is a small sample size, no matter if the small sample size coincides with the storyline we lean towards

1:04
Dan Szymborski: But I DO think he can be an adequate SS, based on his defensive numbers and history before this eason at short

1:04
NatsFan: Will Wieters get a major league job next year?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:04
Mark: Does having 1 cat in 700 sq. ft. make me more of a crazy cat person than 3 cats in 3,000 sq. ft.? It can’t simply be a linear relationship!

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Why not?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Cats come up a lot because I work at home, so cats are around me a lot while I’m working

1:05
Dan Szymborski: I also talk about tacos quite a bit, because tacos tend to be around me when I’m working. And not working.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Am I a crazy taco person?

1:05
Captain Abad : I am not super confident that the Brewers can win many more games … that Dodgers lineup is … daunting. Do we have much of a chance?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: The O’s would have a chance at winning 3 of 5 from teh Dodgers. And the Brewers are an actual good team.

1:05
Dirk: Suppose the Yankees offer Stanton, who’s agreed to waive his NTC, to the Dodgers for some no-name prospect, but LA has to pick up all his salary. Do they say yes?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: No

1:05
randplaty: Which small 2B do you take long term? Luis Urias, Nick Madrigal, or Ozzie Albies?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Albies. I love Urias, but Albies is more established and certainly not an old player by any means.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Madrigal is a bit lower since there’s more speculation

1:06
Ginny: someone apparently agreed with you that the Slinger wiki needs a sexier picture, Dan, because it’s been deleted

1:06
Dan Szymborski: My chats sometimes result in wikipedia changes.

1:07
Dan Szymborski: Because Wikipedia is run in the most ridiculous fashion, I am not ashamed in my part of convincing people to change Randy Levine’s page to reflect his astronaut background

1:07
zurzles: why is it so hard to search for will clark on fangraphs

1:07
Dan Szymborski: Holy crap, i was going to make fun of you for ineptitude, but you’re not lying

1:07
Dan Szymborski: It IS hard to search for will clark on fangraphs

1:08
Dan Szymborski: You can go right to jack clark

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Right to Jerald Clark

1:09
Dan Szymborski: but not to Will Clark

1:09
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Just hit space after entering Wll clark and it pops up easily.

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but that’s not an obvious solution

1:09
Weg Romley: Corey Seager is a top ___ SS in 2019?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: MLB

1:09
CamdenWarehouse: maybe will clark did not actually exist?

1:10
Ginny: The search for Will Clark just informed me of player Dad Clarkson, who played 1891-6

1:11
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: As “chili” is short for “chili con carne,” can we agree that vegetarian chili is “chili sans carne?” I have no problem with both being shortened to “chili,” for what it is worth, the same way the “Sox” can be the White Sox or the Red Sox.

1:11
Dan Szymborski: Vegetarian chili is called animal feed.

1:11
stever20: tough to believe Will Clark only had 2 great seasons looking at him….

1:11
Dan Szymborski: He started to have a lot of minor injuries that kinda draged him down a bit

1:11
Rockie Dangerfield: O/U 1.5 on how many of DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gerardo Parra are brought back by the Rockies this winter?

1:11
Dan Szymborski: 1

1:11
Dan Szymborski: CarGo most likely

1:11
Dan Szymborski: LeMahieu sounded like a player that doesn’t think he’ll be back in Colorado

1:11
Dan Szymborski: and even the Rockies can’t be dumb enough to bring Parra again

1:11
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: How come you don’t do the lightning round anymore?

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Do people prefer I do a Lightning Round rather than just answer things as they come?

1:12
Tubby Mice: Off topic, but on his podcast Dipto said that the Mariner’s basically add fWAR & bWAR and half for player assessment. Surely this is sackable? I mean use resources available but shouldn’t an MLB teams analytics be slightly more developed?

1:12
Dan Szymborski: On a basic level, it’s fine.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: People don’t quite understand what teams do differently. It’s not that they have different WAR measures

1:13
Dan Szymborski: It’s the way they use the data across departments, the way they integrate scouting and study things

1:13
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Why is the Fangraphs Will Clark page just a picture of chili?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: He’s made of no beans

1:13
Marcus Banks: There is a famous Chili Man in Charlotte who also makes a vegan chili. It is a favorite of Cam Newton’s.

1:13
Dan Szymborski: So Cam Newton likes animal feed!

1:13
hscer: You may be 40, but are you a man?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: I’m under the impression that I am.

1:14
Dan Szymborski: The body parts appear consistent, and my voice did change, but I have not had any DNA examination of this

1:14
Guest: IF you put cheese on a burger it becomes a cheeseburger!!

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Burger is a more generic form factor

1:14
PD: Trump’s $1 million for Warren’s DNA test reminds me of Mr. Burns refusing to donate after seeing a pig fly.

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Meh.

1:15
Dan Szymborski: The average white European-descent person has about the same % of Native-American DNA in genome studies

1:15
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think “I’m 1/64th to 1024th something!” was all that convincing a reveal. Not sure why she did it in the first place.

1:15
Lightning Round Lover: I’d prefer you answer things as they come as opposed to lightning round if and only if all of the questions that would normally be answered in the lightning round are still answered.

1:15
Brian $Man: Dan was born a male and now identifies as a Fangraphs writer.

1:15
Dan Szymborski: Heh

1:15
Dan Szymborski: But still, be nice.

1:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s anything wrong with showing people respect.

1:16
CamdenWarehouse: just don’t put cheese on a Berger

1:16
Dan Szymborski: ewww

1:16
Chili Con Davis: Chili side: corn chips or cornbread?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: More chili

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Side dishes are for those unwilling to commit whole-heartedly to the main course.

1:17
Dan Szymborski: Gennady, I’m not touching THAT question.

1:17
Dan Szymborski: I’d rather sit in a bath of acid than talk much on the internet about politics.

1:17
Chili Con Davis: You have chosen . . . wisely

1:17
Matthew: If the cheese is not melted is it still a cheeseburger?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: Sure

1:17
hscer: but cornbread is delicious

1:17
Dan Szymborski: It is, but I just enjoy cornbread for the cornbread

1:18
LFC Mike: A food lightning round sounds interesting…

1:18
Dan Szymborski: You cheapen the chili by requiring a guest and you cheapen cornbread by making implying it inferior to chili that it cannot be eaten on its own

1:18
Dan Szymborski: I’m the jerkface that doesn’t like thanksgiving food touching.

1:18
hscer: What kind of acid? I’m sure there are some that aren’t corrosive to human skin.

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Painful kind

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Not like acid rock

1:19
Gennady Golovkin: Chili does not have beens, yes?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: No beans.

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know about beens.

1:19
Dan Szymborski: I guess most chili has a chronological history

1:19
Morbo: Can one sit in a bath of acid rock?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Well, acid rock albums/cds

1:20
hscer: as long as we agree that jellied cranberry sauce >>> other kinds

1:20
Chili Con Davis: What if you made the chili out of Mr. Bean?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: It would be human chili, so long as he doesn’t have actual beans

1:20
LFC Mike: Do you sit at the kids table during thanksgiving and tease them about the gravy running into the green beans?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: My family is small enough that we just have a main table

1:20
Gennady Golovkin: What if you made the cranberry sauce out of chili?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Then it’s chili

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Or a weird meaty cranberry sauce

1:20
Dan Szymborski: If it has actual cranberries in it, it’s not chili

1:20
Morbo: Dan, I propose Lysergic acid for your acid bath. ZiPS projections would be…interesting

1:20
hscer: thanksgiving green beans can only be legitimately consumed as part of a casserole

1:21
Dan Szymborski: I only like green beans if they’re raw

1:21
Dan Szymborski: I’ve got texture issues with vegetables. I love spinach and green beans and even kale, if they’re raw.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: If they’re the slightest bit slimy or squishy or soft, NFW

1:21
Chili Con Davis: Weird Meaty Cranberry Sauce was my band’s name

1:21
Gennady Golovkin: Max. This is box. Mexican style.

1:22
Dan Szymborski: Fish, and plankton. And sea greens, and protein from the sea.

1:22
Dan Szymborski: Box, Mexican style

1:23
Dan Szymborski: pescado y plancton. y mar verde y proteinas del mar

1:23
Dan Szymborski: That is a very good reference that I made with no effort, so I will leave the chat on a personal victory.

1:23
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone and I’ll see you next week!

1:23
hscer: Wikipedia on casseroles gives me more questions than answers: “A casserole (French: diminutive of casse, from Provençal cassa “pan”[1]) is a large, deep pan”

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/15/18 by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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DustyColorado
Member
DustyColorado

Hi Dan, can I get your thoughts on Wander Javier? What’s his upside?

Maggie25
Member
Member
Maggie25

I do not understand this Wander Javier thing.