Some Thoughts on Nakajima
The rumor mill out of Japan has it that Seibu Lions shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima is looking to make an MLB jump this offseason via the posting system. I’ve covered “Nakaji” on FanGraphs before, but here’s a little more detail.
In the Field
Good glove, pretty good arm. I’ve seen some commentary speculating that he’s better suited to second base in MLB, but I don’t see why he shouldn’t get a chance to play shortstop. Nakajima has played his career on turf, in his home games at Seibu Dome and most of his road games, as all of the Pacific League teams have turf infields. The turf-grass adjustment was tough for Kazuo Matsui, but Tadahito Iguchi did fine so it can go either way. Nakajima made 11 errors in 2010, but beyond that NPB fielding metrics are not easy to come by. I’ll have to get back with more if I can collect anything more compelling. My intuition is that he can handle 3rd defensively, though he won’t have a traditional 3b bat in MLB.
At the Plate
Nakajima is a good contact hitter who uses the whole field. I see him as a line drive/gap hitter; in Japan he’s been around 20 hr and .500 slg for the last four years or so. He’s also gotten better at drawing walks over the last few years, but he’s still not great by American standards. Generally speaking, though, there are fewer walks and strikeouts in NPB. Like many Japanese NPB hitters, he has a complex swing, with a long stride and a lot of leg movement. I think he will shorten up his stride and cut down on his lower body movement in MLB, which will likely cost him some power.
Posting
I didn’t think Nakajima would get posted this offseason, and it’s still possible that he won’t — Seibu management has commented that “players that can be posted are valuable and as a team we don’t want to let them go” while adding “we want to consider our players ambitions and dreams to the greatest extent possible.” Negotiations between Nakajima and Seibu are reportedly set to begin on October 20th, so we’ll see what happens after that.
Patrick Newman is a veteran enthusiast of Japanese baseball who happens to write about it at npbtracker.com, and on Twitter @npbtracker.
Are there any studies on Japanese players changing their mechanics when they come to the US? Ichiro/Matsui didn’t. Dice-K hasn’t. I’m not sure why anyone would take a 28 year old and retool their swing.
My gut says getting away from the slap hitting and quieting his lower body would give him more power and more strikeouts, which might be a worthy trade off, or he could stick with what he’s doing. An average defending shortstop that pops 15 hrs a year has plenty of value.
Has anyone attempted to use minor league equivalences on japanese stats?
Actually Ichiro cut down on his leg movement quite a bit, he used to take a big Daryl Strawberry stride in NPB. Hideki Matsui is at the other end of the scale, he didn’t change his swing much at all.
It has been shown that the NPB has about the same equivalency as AAA, although there is more deviation in NPB than AAA.
By who? I thought that the competition was better than AAA, but not quite at the level of MLB.
Piccamo is correct. The level of pitching, however, seems even closer.
very close to the mlb. but won’t be in the future, if we’re taking their best players.
I’m surprised here. On fangraphs there wasn’t some report on teh pitcher who’s rights were won by the Diamondbacks. Admittedly, I don’t know anything about him but I’ve seen it in the news in my Japanese class. Any info coming or what?
The Diamondbacks have not won the rights to any Japanese pitcher. There have been some reports out of Japan that the D-Backs have some interest in Hisashi Iwakuma, whom I wrote a little about last month.
OH! She must have just read it wrong then.
It was Yu Darvish, for the record.
Any kind of idea what kind of price tag he’d be looking at?
Padres need to sign him 4yrs 20 mil.
What’s a good current MLB comparison? I know his stats will drop in the tougher environment of the majors, but what’s his analog before that happens?
poor mans derek jeter
what’s a MLB equivalent of a “poor man’s Jeter” though? Michael Young the SS?
Maybe as a hitter, but he is a much better fielder.
The Michael Young thing is more solid.
Is there a reason why seemingly all the Japanese players use that high leg kick and sweeping swing?
I even see it down to Little League Baseball when they show the LLWS on TV. Is it because of Sadaharu Oh or were they hitting that way before him?
“I think he will shorten up his stride and cut down on his lower body movement in MLB, which will likely cost him some power.”
Just look at Fukudome. His shorten stride didn’t help. Do what you did best, and the rest will come along as you learn the league.
As a Cubs fan, I don’t really care if Fukudome can’t hit 95-miles fastball due to his NPB-suited “longer stride,” as long as he can get on base 36% of the time not only in April, but in the freaking hot Chicago August, and the wind blowing-in of September.
Anyway, enough said. 2 cents and brain fart right now.
NPB players have always fascinated me, especially their transition to the MLB. I wonder if there is a Japanese “Ted Williams” that could actually explain the hitting philosophy behind the unique approach that is coming out of Japan.
I publish MLEs for NPB at THT Forecasts ($15 subscription required). I should have the 2010 Japanese stats in by the end of the week.
Nakajima’s 2010 pre-season projection was 307/371/440, and his 2010 actual stats were almost identical to his 2008 & 2009, so the projection likely won’t change much. Would likely be one of the top 5 offensive shortstops in MLB.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP GDP BA OBP SLG wOBA WAR
523 79 161 30 5 10 63 21 5 49 98 7 20 .307 .371 .440 .358 3.6
That’s interesting. I find the projection a little optimistic, but I hope he meets it. It’s interesting that your MLE analysis and my eyeball analysis agree that he’s a gap hitter.