Something Dennis Eckersley Said Is Relevant to Gio Gonzalez
This post is about Gio Gonzalez. It says so right in the title. But to get there, we first have to talk to Dennis Eckersley, because he said something the other day that’s pertinent to what the lefty in Washington is doing right now.
Eckersley, in Oakland because the team named a gate after him, was relaxing before a game. We were talking about changes in the sport, and I asked him why his strikeout rate peaked in 1992, at a point when he was 38 years old and had been a reliever for five years. Was it a new pitch? Grip? Approach?
Nope.
“Everyone started chasing, just like now,” the legendary reliever said that day. “You punch out 200 guys now, it’s not a big deal. Everyone is striking out a guy an inning. You tell me why. First of all, they’re throwing harder. I get that. But no one puts down their hack. These 2-2 swings… they’re, like, crazy.”
A greater willingness to forgo a specific two-strike approach is something we’ve not only seen players discussing in these pages but a trend that’s illustrated by the numbers. Batters are going after the fastball in every count and are happy to take the strikeout in exchange for the power that more aggression brings.
But the focus here is mostly that, in times of great change, we aren’t always great at realizing what’s changing. Eckersley, talking about now and then, said, “They were trying to go deep back then, but more contact,” with a wistful tone. “I don’t want to sound like a geezer, but the game has changed.”
Take a look at strikeout rate since free agency began in 1974, with 1992 and 2017 highlighted. Times of great change, indeed.
The early 90s and right now represent the only times in recent history in which the league’s strikeout rate has changed more than 1.2 percentage points over two years. League average just two years ago was 20.4%; this year, it’s 21.6%.
It’s a quick, radical change that hasn’t often been equaled in baseball history. So it’s a big deal. But it’s small enough that, after years of increasing strikeout rates, we may not notice it.
But take the pitchers who’ve changed the least since 2014, and you’ll notice that they look different if you index their strikeout rates to the league average. Here are five pitchers whose strikeout rate changes since 2015 would round to zero. Check out their indexed strikeout rate changes over the same time frame.
| Name | 2017 K% | 2015 K% | Diff 17-15 K% | 2017 K%+ | 2015 K%+ | Diff 17-15 K%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Lester | 25.0% | 24.6% | 0.4% | 116 | 123 | -7 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 22.4% | 22.3% | 0.1% | 103 | 109 | -6 |
| Johnny Cueto | 20.0% | 20.3% | -0.3% | 95 | 100 | -5 |
| John Lackey | 20.4% | 19.5% | 0.9% | 93 | 96 | -3 |
| Matt Garza | 15.7% | 15.6% | 0.1% | 74 | 76 | -2 |
These pitchers have changed by remaining the same. In the case of Jon Lester, he set a sufficiently high bar in 2015 that staying the same has meant that he’s now just above average instead of plus. In the case of Matt Garza, things went from bad to worse despite adding a little bit of whiff.
But look at Gio Gonzalez. Two years ago, his strikeout rate was 9% better than league average; this year, just 3% better. But he’s actually improved his personal K rate in the interim. Just not enough to keep pace with the league.
It’s interesting how this relates to actual performance, too. Gonzalez, by ERA, is having a great, league-leading type season. By strikeouts and walks and homers, though — the fielding-independent numbers, in other words — he’s been much closer to league average.
He could certainly be earning some of his good results on ball in play — he’s using his fastball less often than ever before, and fastballs have higher hit rates than breaking and offspeed pitches — but as the game whiffs more and more often around him, his strikeout rate has become less impressive. In context. Context provided by Dennis Eckersley. Of course.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Interesting…I don’t think it’s fair to compare Eck’s breakout K season to what we’re seeing now though. K rates are higher than ever and it’s not just 2 K approach. I think stuff is better, not just velocity.
Eck has been providing color for a lot of Red Sox broadcasts for the past few years, especially this year with Remy once again battling cancer, and the way he thinks about and discusses the game is absolutely fascinating. Once you get past the silly phrasing (generally referring to pitchers’ stuff as various types of cheeses), he really is one of the most astute color commentators to whom I’ve had the pleasure of listening. His style may not be for everyone (particularly the lactose intolerant), but I’m not at all surprised to hear him making connections like this without much thought.
How much does age play a factor? All of the pitchers listed are veterans, who are now a few years older. Shouldn’t we expect some natural regression based on their ages?
Eck is also the subject of a hilarious Mike Birbiglia bit.
I knew there was a reason I came to FG. I can’t wait to hear Birbiglia’s crack analysis…
Look the bit up on Youtube. Has really nothing to do with baseball.