Spring-Training Divisional Outlook: American League Central

Previous editions: AL East / NL East.

Opening Day is just over the horizon, though we have to navigate the remainder of the World Baseball Classic and the entirety of March Madness first. In the meantime, let’s continue our look at the upcoming season, with the third of our six divisional previews.

As we have already done with the two Eastern divisions, we will use 2016 batted-ball data to get a feel for the true offensive, pitching and defensive talent of the other 20, while reviewing key player movement and under-the-radar strengths and weaknesses that could make the difference in their respective 2017 campaigns. Today, the AL Central.

We’ll start it off with a table that will serve as the backbone of our analysis:

The first four columns indicate how each team “should have” performed at the plate and on the mound if each batted ball generated league-average results for its exit-speed and launch-angle “bucket.” The next four columns list each club’s offensive and defensive K and BB rates.

The last column represents each club’s Defensive Multiplier. This measures each club’s defensive performance compared to its opposition over 162 games. Using granular BIP data, each team’s actual AVG and SLG (excluding home runs) was compared to the projected levels (as described in the previous paragraph) for such BIP, both on offense and defense. This essentially isolates the contributions of pitching from those of team defense. If a club out-defended its opponents, its Defensive Multiplier is below 100. If a club was out-defended, its multiplier is above 100.

Color-coding is used above to note significant divergence from league average. Red cells indicate values that are over two full standard deviations above league average. Orange cells are over one STD above, yellow cells over one-half STD above, blue cells over one-half STD below, and black cells over one STD below league average. Ran out of colors at that point. Variation of over two full STD below league average will be addressed as necessary in the text below.

Next, let’s convert the above data into run values, perform some Pythagorean magic, and come up with a series of projected win-loss records: (a) on only each club’s BIP hit/allowed, (b) further adjusted for K and BB for/against, and (c) further adjusted for team’s Defensive Multiplier. This third projection represents the club’s true-talent W-L record for 2016. For comparative purposes, each club’s 2016 actual and Pythagorean records are listed:

Let’s make some broad observations about each club’s 2016 performance utilizing the data in the two tables above.

The Cleveland Indians were one of baseball’s biggest success stories in 2016. I have to admit that I kind of saw it coming. If you dig into ESPN Insider archives, you might find that I was the only one of 96 or so of their contributors who picked the Tribe to win the AL pennant. So I’ve got that goin’ for me. If the game were played without strikeouts and walks, however, the 2016 Indians would have been very ordinary.

In fact, they were downright average. Their projected batting averages for and against based on exit-speed and launch-angle data were a bit lower than league average; on BIP alone, this was an 80-82 club.

Adding back the Ks and BBs was a huge boon to their projected record. They were over a half standard deviation better than league average in offensive and pitching BB rate, and over a full STD better than average in pitching K rate. Carlos Santana on the offensive end and a starting rotation full of Corey Kluber and some guys who weren’t available in October drove this performance, which added a whopping eight games to their projection, up to 88-74.

Team defense was also a club strength. Their Defensive Multipliers were better than league average across all BIP types, checking in at 95.7 overall, best in the Central and second in the AL. Their performance was best on grounders, with a 91.1 multiplier keyed by the two shortstops on the left side of the infield, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, along with second baseman Jason Kipnis. This added three more wins to their projection, up to 91-71 — or, 3.5 games shy of their actual record.

If strikeouts and walks weren’t a thing, the Tigers would be king. Almost to a man, they absolutely destroy the baseball, with their projected offensive AVG and SLG over one full STD better than league average. Their pitching staff also did a strong job of managing contact, with their projected AVG and SLG against over a full and a half STD below league average, respectively. On BIP alone, this was a 96-66 club, easily the class of the division.

Adding K and BB back into the equation doesn’t move the needle very much for the Tigers. Some of their baseball-assaulters, like Nick Castellanos and Justin Upton, aren’t so great on the K/BB front. Limiting free passes was a strength of their pitching staff, as they checked in over a half STD better than average in that category. Their record is docked three wins at this point, down to 93-69.

The Tigers were the only club in the Central to have a measurably worse than average team defense according to my method, with a 103.6 Defensive Multiplier. Interestingly, they performed worst on line drives, with a 106.8 multiplier that was second worst in the AL. This likely is owed mostly to the subpar work done on the outfield corners by Upton and J.D. Martinez. This knocked two more wins off of their projection, tying them at 91-71 with the Indians. The Tigers actually performed 4.5 games worse than that.

Next up: the Royals, the “darlings” of most projection systems. The club’s projected performance on BIP alone actually got worse in 2016, as their offense paddled the ball as weakly as ever, while thunder-allower Ian Kennedy was added to the rotation. Their projected SLG, both for and against, was over a full STD worse than league average, keying a projected 73-89 record on BIP alone.

Adding back the Ks and BBs doesn’t help the Royals’ cause. Drawing and issuing walks were both major issues, as the club finished over a full STD worse than AL average in both categories. This lops two more games off of the Royals’ projection, down to 71-91.

Team defense, of course, is the Royals’ friend, but not to as extreme an extent as in the recent past, at least according to my method. Their overall team Defensive Multiplier of 97.7 was solid if unspectacular, and was driven by an outstanding 91.6 multiplier on fly balls, due primarily to outstanding work from Lorenzo Cain and the departed Jarrod Dyson. This added two wins to their projection, up to 73-89, a full eight games shy of their actual mark.

The 2016 Chicago White Sox aren’t of much use in projecting the 2017 version, given the staggering amount of roster turnover. Last’s year club, very quietly, was characterized by feeble authority on balls in play, both for and against. Their projected offensive SLG and projected pitching staff AVG and SLG against were all over a full STD lower than league average. The offensive power deficit was obvious, while the pitching staff’s contact-management expertise flew under the radar a bit. All in all, on BIP alone, this was an 80-82 club.

Adding back the Ks and BBs didn’t help the 2016 White Sox. Their offensive BB rate was over a half STD below league average, while the pitching staff’s BB rate was over a full STD worse than league average, despite the presence of Chris Sale and Jose Quintana at the top of the rotation. This cut three wins off of the club’s projection, down to 77-85.

Team defense in the aggregate had little effect on the club’s projection, as they compiled a 99.8 team Defensive Multiplier. Dig a little deeper, however, and see that this adequate performance was largely attributable to Adam Eaton in the outfield, while the infield posted a horrible 116.3 multiplier on grounders, the worst in baseball. Jose Abreu at first base, Brett Lawrie at second and Todd Frazier at third were all negative contributors. Their projection remains at 77-85 after the effects of defense, a game behind their actual 2016 record.

Lastly, the Twins. Their hitters’ BIP authority was pretty close to league average by any measure. As for the contact allowed by their pitching staff… it was historically bad. They allowed the most fly balls and liners, and the hardest fly balls of any pitching staff in the AL. That’s a pretty rough trifecta. Their projected AVG and SLG allowed were by far the highest in either league, and both were over two full STD higher than league average, way out there at the end of the Bell Curve. On BIP alone, this was a 72-90 club, with the entire deficit pinned on the pitching staff.

Adding back Ks and BBs isn’t a good deal for the club. They were over a full STD worse than league average in both offensive and pitching staff K rate, though their pitching staff BB rate was modestly better than league average. That poor K differential drops their projected win total by five, down to 67-95.

Their team defensive performance was below average (101.8 Defensive Multiplier), but not as far below as publicly available metrics suggest. Their biggest problems were in the infield, as suggested by their 107.7 multiplier on grounders, second worst to the Chisox in the AL. The biggest issues were on the left side, largely due to the combined efforts of the players sharing shortstop and third after the departure of Eduardo Nunez. This drops two more games off of their projection, down to 65-97, six wins better than their actual record.

Now, let’s look forward. Below are the current Fangraphs projection, as of Wednesday afternoon:

The Fangraphs projections don’t look favorably on the AL Central. In fact, they project to have a worse overall record than last week’s subject, the NL East, a group on which I’m not particularly high. My guess is, they’re a little light on this group in the aggregate, but a little too optimistic about the club at the top.

Let’s briefly discuss some key issues — and some of the important changes from 2016 — for each club below:

Cleveland Indians
So why did no one love this team last spring, and everyone does now? Part of it is the addition of Edwin Encarnacion, which should give their offense a boost. On the other hand, however, a true DH is going to have to play the field every day now, with both Encarnacion and Santana around. There are other questions: Lonnie Chisenhall is a bit dicey in right field, and Kipnis and Michael Brantley open the season with potentially serious injury concerns. They do appear to have the second-best offense in the Central, but that isn’t saying much.

There’s quite a bit of strong starting pitching in the Central, but the Indians’ rotation is the best. Either Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar might have put them over the top against the Cubs, and both almost certainly would have. Their rotation depth also stands out among their division-mates. This is a solid baseball team, above average on both sides of the ball. I think a 90-win projection is a bit ambitious; I’m much more comfortable in the 86-88 win range.

Detroit Tigers
Owner Mike Ilitch passed away this winter, never having seen his beloved club win it all. Tiger brass clearly believes in their current nucleus, as they return essentially the same group in 2017. It’s an aging club, but their strengths are very real. Miguel Cabrera’s offensive game has shown no signs of aging; if anything, he was unlucky in 2016 based on batted-ball metrics. Martinez is a second elite bat, and Castellanos and Upton are capable of much more than they accomplished last season. This could, and perhaps should be the best bunch of bats in the AL.

Center field is a huge issue; Tyler Collins and Mikie Mahtook are the leading contenders, with the club likely to award the job to the player with the best defensive upside. The pitching staff has quietly gotten very young overnight, with Matt Boyd, Michael Fulmer, and Daniel Norris all likely to break north in the rotation. Their pen doesn’t come close to matching up with the Indians’.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see a step forward from the Tigers this season. Look for negative regression from Fulmer and Ian Kinsler, but positive regression from a bunch of bats. Pencil in 88-90 wins and a division title.

Kansas City Royals
A year from now, Opening Day rosters could look a lot different in both Detroit and Kansas City. Their nuclei have been in place for a long time, and youth movements could be on tap. In a sense, the process is already underway in KC, as you could see early-20-somethings at second base (Raul Mondesi, Jr.) and in right field (Jorge Soler) this season. Their mega-bullpen has been broken up, with both Wade Davis and Greg Holland moving on this winter.

Still, there are winning scenarios for the 2017 Royals. Mike Moustakas looked like a new man before his season-ending injury and could emerge as their best position player. Eric Hosmer could start hitting more fly balls, igniting his offensive game. The rotation has depth, with acceptable options like Travis Wood and Chris Young in the No. 6-7 holes.

All in all, this iteration of the Royals has peaked. Salvador Perez‘ days as an offensive force are likely over, Brandon Moss won’t be able to adequately replace Kendrys Morales, and the club will have to pick and choose which core player(s) to lock up long term. I see them hugging the .500 mark, likely a game or two over.

Minnesota Twins
Absolutely everything went wrong for the Twins last season. Their young mega-prospects showed flashes but didn’t blossom. Their starting pitching was expected to be shaky, but it downright imploded. For too long, the club shied away from bat-missing pitchers, and the bill came fully due last season.

Given all of their holes, it was a fairly quiet offseason in the Twin Cities, as the club remains committed to its youthful nucleus. Jason Castro is a nice upside play behind the plate, and the inconsistent usage of Miguel Sano should end, as he returns to the hot corner. While I’m confident that Sano and Byron Buxton will take measurable steps forward in 2017 and move the club toward league-average offensive status, there are other issues. Ervin Santana and Robbie Grossman ranked among the luckiest pitchers and hitters in the game last season, respectively, based on BIP metrics and are primed for negative regression. Joe Mauer is fading away at first base, and it’s uncertain whether Jorge Polanco, a decent bat, has the defensive chops for shortstop.

Their win total will rise, perhaps by more than a few games, but I still see the Twins finishing last, with no more than 70 wins.

Chicago White Sox
Lots of offseason goings-on here. Exit Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, enter pile of high-upside prospects, including Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. Short term, it’s going to hurt; within a year, those guys will begin to make their mark.

For now, this is a really bad offensive club. There is little reason to expect much offense from catcher (Omar Narvaez/Geovany Soto), second base (Tyler Saladino), center field (Charlie Tilson) or right field (Rymer Liriano), and there’s downside risk at shortstop (Tim Anderson), third base (Todd Frazier) and left field (Melky Cabrera), as well. This is a transition year on the South Side, and they will exercise patience with the youngsters, but perhaps not the vets among this group.

Even with the departure of Sale, the starting rotation remains the strength of the club. Quintana is no longer underrated (and is still in town as of this writing), and Carlos Rodon may be on the verge of busting through. Miguel Gonzalez is very quietly a solid back-end starter. The Indians have the best run prevention in the division, but it’s pretty close for second billing between these guys, the Tigers and Royals. With Quintana, I see them in fourth, with 70-72 wins. Without him, they should finish behind the Twins.