St. Louis’ Selloff Continues as Paul DeJong Heads to Toronto

About 12 hours after Bo Bichette left Monday night’s game with a right knee injury, the Blue Jays found his possible replacement, acquiring shortstop Paul DeJong and cash considerations from the Cardinals on Tuesday afternoon for minor league reliever Matt Svanson.
DeJong being relevant again might make you think that you’ve warped back to pre-2020 days, but hang on before you load up on masks and toilet paper; he’s actually had a nice little 2023 season. I don’t think anyone would argue with me if I said the Cardinals were having a season with a stunning lack of pleasant surprises, but DeJong’s year has been one of those rarities. While a triple-slash of .233/.297/.412 won’t get you to many All-Star Games, it’s a much prettier line than his .196/.280/.351 collapse from 2020 to ’22, reaching a nadir with a ’22 season in which DeJong needed a telescope just to see the Mendoza line. He still plays solid defense at shortstop, and his bat has rebounded enough that there’s once again a significant role for him on a major league roster. The only reason he was even in St. Louis this year was the six-year contract he signed before the 2018 season.
The #BlueJays are sending minor-league reliever Matt Svanson, 24, in return for Paul DeJong and cash considerations. DeJong, who's in the final year of a six-year, $26 million contract, earns $9M this year with a $12.5M option or $2M buyout in 2024.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) August 1, 2023
While this piece has the “2023 trade deadline tag,” that’s actually kind of a lie; this is a regular ol’ injury replacement trade that just happened to coincide with the deadline. The full extent of Bichette’s injury probably won’t be known before the trade market closes up shop for the fall, so the Jays had to act quickly unless they wanted to try to replace him in-house. And while they had options in the organization, all of them had at least one seriously concerning issue. Santiago Espinal is more an emergency shortstop than a starter, and Cavan Biggio only has two professional innings at short. And neither is providing enough offense to make you want to take that defensive risk. In the minors, Addison Barger has suffered through elbow problems this season and isn’t a natural shortstop either, and Orelvis Martinez just debuted at Triple-A. Ernie Clement turning into a weird plate discipline deity is interesting, but more for a bad team in search of an upside play, not a team in a tight, crowded pennant race that needs some certainty.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RoS 2023 | .220 | .297 | .433 | 141 | 19 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 21 | 13 | 45 | 2 | 100 | 2 | 0.9 |
| 2024 | .221 | .294 | .421 | 399 | 53 | 88 | 17 | 0 | 21 | 62 | 36 | 127 | 5 | 96 | 6 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | .220 | .295 | .420 | 381 | 51 | 84 | 16 | 0 | 20 | 57 | 35 | 122 | 4 | 97 | 5 | 2.0 |
| Percentile | 2B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 26 | 33 | .269 | .338 | .551 | 138 | 4.4 |
| 90% | 24 | 30 | .259 | .329 | .525 | 131 | 4.0 |
| 80% | 21 | 27 | .245 | .316 | .483 | 119 | 3.4 |
| 70% | 20 | 25 | .235 | .307 | .456 | 109 | 2.9 |
| 60% | 18 | 22 | .227 | .301 | .436 | 102 | 2.5 |
| 50% | 17 | 21 | .221 | .294 | .421 | 96 | 2.2 |
| 40% | 16 | 19 | .214 | .286 | .403 | 91 | 1.9 |
| 30% | 15 | 18 | .205 | .279 | .386 | 84 | 1.5 |
| 20% | 13 | 16 | .195 | .271 | .367 | 78 | 1.1 |
| 10% | 11 | 13 | .181 | .256 | .340 | 65 | 0.5 |
| 5% | 10 | 11 | .171 | .244 | .322 | 60 | 0.1 |
DeJong’s options are now a little more complicated. At $12.5 million and $15 million, I imagine the Cardinals would have declined them as they did with Kolten Wong after a solid 2020 season. He has a $2 million buyout for 2024, and there may be a scenario in which the Jays pick it up if Bichette’s injury turns out to be fairly serious one. Is $10.5 million (since $2 million is baked into the cake either way) minus whatever the Cardinals are sending with him not worth it for them to keep DeJong as the starting shortstop for an undetermined part of next season before making him a utility infielder?
There was no reason to expect the Cardinals to get a haul of prospects for DeJong. Svanson is having a bit of a breakout season in the minors as a reliever, but you can’t ignore the fact that it’s as a 24-year-old in High-A ball. My colleague Eric Longenhagen has his two-seamer at 92–94 mph and his slider at 84, and that he would be an honorable mention in the Jays prospect list but would not make the main rankings. ZiPS turns Svanson’s 1.23 ERA/2.55 FIP into a 4.30 ERA translation with the Cardinals in 2023 because, well, 24-year-old in High-A ball. But if he advances quickly — and he will need to in order to have any kind of career in the majors — he could show up at the back of the big league bullpen.
Toronto would much prefer that Bichette’s knee is a minor issue that resolves quickly, but they’ve rightly formulated a solid Plan B here. There’s literally no time like the present.
*****BREAKING NEWS UPDATE EMERGENCY SIREN JAZZ HANDS*****
There’s no serious damage to Bichette’s knee, though it’s not determined whether or not he will need to head onto the IL. At the very least, we might see Bichette play more DH as they work him back into the lineup, whenever it is, and DeJong still remains a quality Plan B in the case of a setback. Bichette’s injury not being a serious one does reduce the chance that the Blue Jays will pick up one of DeJong’s options.
As everyone has seen by now, an MRI showed there is no structural damage in Bo Bichette’s right knee, per #BlueJays manager John Schneider, who described it as best case scenarios. Bichette isn’t in the lineup today but he’s day to day. Still determining if an IL stint is needed
— Kaitlyn McGrath (@kaitlyncmcgrath) August 1, 2023
*****END COMMUNIQUE*****
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
That’s an injury that, if it has to happen, works out a lot better if it happens on July 31st rather than August 2nd.
This is about what I would have expected before the Rockies traded Grichuk to the Angels. There was always a chance that the Grichuk trade heralded a baseline for position players who have been bad recently suddenly hitting like they used to. But I guess not.
The DeJong deal is a good example of why these pre-arb deals are so good for clubs: even with DeJong cratering pretty bad, he was worth 7.2 fwar 2018-2022. If they’d cut him after 2022 and paid out the deal, he’d have gotten $30M. That’s like $4M/win, or $3M/win if you include 2023. That’s a pretty good downside scenario, and well worth it for the ~3 win upside he showed in his first few seasons.
I think teams had to be somewhat skeptical of Dejong’s 2023, right? After a blazing start, he has been mediocre. He had a terrible 70 wRC+ in July and can’t hit righties (85 wRC+ on the season). Considering his history, it’s more likely than not that his first month was a fluke and the 70 wRC+ is more realistic. He’ll provide good defense at short, which isn’t too shabby, but I doubt Toronto will pick up his option.
It’s a miracle the Cardinals got anything out of Dejong, considering his last few years. Odds are, Svanson will struggle against advanced hitters and never reach the majors, but something is better than nothing. A small chance at turning into something is worth it.
Yeah this is a great outcome for a player that only made it on the roster by the skin of his teeth. Getting rid of him and turning him into literally anything that could possibly be useful in the future is a great win for the Cardinals. The Cardinals definitely weren’t picking up DeJong’s option, but I could imagine another team doing so. $10m for a good defender at 2nd, 3rd, or short with even a sub par bat could be worth it if you’re a team looking to compete now and an infield hole, but with a prospect coming up.
It seems like the Cardinals are really taking advantage of the opportunity to sell off in a way they didn’t back in 2018ish when they traded Pham. Granted, they’re much worse now, but still, they’re trading all those edge pieces who aren’t nailed down for anything they can get- Stratton, DeJong, Cabrera. Hopefully they end up shipping out Flaherty too. If you’re gonna be bad, you may as well get every ounce of value you can out of it.
No, with all the buzz about how he overhauled his swing last offseason, it’s not that big of a surprise that it actually worked to a pretty good degree. The bad July is much more likely to be the fluke.
To be fair, the only reason Wong’s option was declined was because the Cardinals, like most teams, needed to cut payroll after 2020 (and the MLBPA threw that offseason’s free agent class under the bus, part of their own membership, just to avoid everyone taking an equal percentage of further pay cuts that year).
DeJong’s first option could’ve gone either way for the Cardinals (even if only to trade him after picking up the option) depending on how he finishes the season, and the same is also true for the Blue Jays, although the pick up and trade route is even more likely in their case.