St. Louis’ Selloff Continues as Paul DeJong Heads to Toronto

Paul DeJong
Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

About 12 hours after Bo Bichette left Monday night’s game with a right knee injury, the Blue Jays found his possible replacement, acquiring shortstop Paul DeJong and cash considerations from the Cardinals on Tuesday afternoon for minor league reliever Matt Svanson.

DeJong being relevant again might make you think that you’ve warped back to pre-2020 days, but hang on before you load up on masks and toilet paper; he’s actually had a nice little 2023 season. I don’t think anyone would argue with me if I said the Cardinals were having a season with a stunning lack of pleasant surprises, but DeJong’s year has been one of those rarities. While a triple-slash of .233/.297/.412 won’t get you to many All-Star Games, it’s a much prettier line than his .196/.280/.351 collapse from 2020 to ’22, reaching a nadir with a ’22 season in which DeJong needed a telescope just to see the Mendoza line. He still plays solid defense at shortstop, and his bat has rebounded enough that there’s once again a significant role for him on a major league roster. The only reason he was even in St. Louis this year was the six-year contract he signed before the 2018 season.

While this piece has the “2023 trade deadline tag,” that’s actually kind of a lie; this is a regular ol’ injury replacement trade that just happened to coincide with the deadline. The full extent of Bichette’s injury probably won’t be known before the trade market closes up shop for the fall, so the Jays had to act quickly unless they wanted to try to replace him in-house. And while they had options in the organization, all of them had at least one seriously concerning issue. Santiago Espinal is more an emergency shortstop than a starter, and Cavan Biggio only has two professional innings at short. And neither is providing enough offense to make you want to take that defensive risk. In the minors, Addison Barger has suffered through elbow problems this season and isn’t a natural shortstop either, and Orelvis Martinez just debuted at Triple-A. Ernie Clement turning into a weird plate discipline deity is interesting, but more for a bad team in search of an upside play, not a team in a tight, crowded pennant race that needs some certainty.

ZiPS Projection – Paul DeJong
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
RoS 2023 .220 .297 .433 141 19 31 6 0 8 21 13 45 2 100 2 0.9
2024 .221 .294 .421 399 53 88 17 0 21 62 36 127 5 96 6 2.2
2025 .220 .295 .420 381 51 84 16 0 20 57 35 122 4 97 5 2.0

ZiPS 2024 Projection Percentiles – Paul DeJong
Percentile 2B HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR
95% 26 33 .269 .338 .551 138 4.4
90% 24 30 .259 .329 .525 131 4.0
80% 21 27 .245 .316 .483 119 3.4
70% 20 25 .235 .307 .456 109 2.9
60% 18 22 .227 .301 .436 102 2.5
50% 17 21 .221 .294 .421 96 2.2
40% 16 19 .214 .286 .403 91 1.9
30% 15 18 .205 .279 .386 84 1.5
20% 13 16 .195 .271 .367 78 1.1
10% 11 13 .181 .256 .340 65 0.5
5% 10 11 .171 .244 .322 60 0.1

DeJong’s options are now a little more complicated. At $12.5 million and $15 million, I imagine the Cardinals would have declined them as they did with Kolten Wong after a solid 2020 season. He has a $2 million buyout for 2024, and there may be a scenario in which the Jays pick it up if Bichette’s injury turns out to be fairly serious one. Is $10.5 million (since $2 million is baked into the cake either way) minus whatever the Cardinals are sending with him not worth it for them to keep DeJong as the starting shortstop for an undetermined part of next season before making him a utility infielder?

There was no reason to expect the Cardinals to get a haul of prospects for DeJong. Svanson is having a bit of a breakout season in the minors as a reliever, but you can’t ignore the fact that it’s as a 24-year-old in High-A ball. My colleague Eric Longenhagen has his two-seamer at 92–94 mph and his slider at 84, and that he would be an honorable mention in the Jays prospect list but would not make the main rankings. ZiPS turns Svanson’s 1.23 ERA/2.55 FIP into a 4.30 ERA translation with the Cardinals in 2023 because, well, 24-year-old in High-A ball. But if he advances quickly — and he will need to in order to have any kind of career in the majors — he could show up at the back of the big league bullpen.

Toronto would much prefer that Bichette’s knee is a minor issue that resolves quickly, but they’ve rightly formulated a solid Plan B here. There’s literally no time like the present.

*****BREAKING NEWS UPDATE EMERGENCY SIREN JAZZ HANDS*****

There’s no serious damage to Bichette’s knee, though it’s not determined whether or not he will need to head onto the IL. At the very least, we might see Bichette play more DH as they work him back into the lineup, whenever it is, and DeJong still remains a quality Plan B in the case of a setback. Bichette’s injury not being a serious one does reduce the chance that the Blue Jays will pick up one of DeJong’s options.

*****END COMMUNIQUE*****





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sandwiches4everMember since 2019
1 year ago

That’s an injury that, if it has to happen, works out a lot better if it happens on July 31st rather than August 2nd.