Steven Souza’s March to the Record Books

When Adam Dunn posted his 190th strikeout in 2004, he broke a record originally set by Bobby Bonds over 30 years earlier, in 1970. While it took some time for Bonds’ mark to be surpassed, it’s become a common occurrence in the meantime. Indeed, including that one produced by Dunn, there have now been 18 player seasons that have met or exceeded Bonds’ previous high.

While Bonds’ strikeout distinction has been exceeded on a number of occasions, there’s another one that remains untouched. Since Pete Incaviglia’s 1986 season, his mark of 185 strikeouts has endured as the record for rookies. Not a single rookie has come within even 10 strikeouts of Incaviglia’s record. Tampa Bay outfielder Steven Souza looks poised to make a run at the record this season, however.

Souza has followed an interesting track to the majors, spending eight years in the Washington Nationals’ minor-league system before getting a shot as a full-time starter with the Rays this season. Souza, a part of the trade that sent Wil Myers to the San Diego Padres, hit very well in the minor leagues over the last few years. As Carson Cistulli noted after the trade, through no fault of his own, Souza found himself behind Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, and Denard Span making it difficult to receive a promotion to the big leagues. In Chris Mitchell’s profile of Souza, he reinforced the same point, writing:

Yes, Souza has been old for his level for years now, but the “old for his league” caveat means less and less the closer a hitter gets to the majors. And when a hitter performs like Souza did in Triple-A, you absolutely have to take notice. More often than not, hitters who rake in Triple-A turn into serviceable big leaguers, regardless of how old they are.

The Rays saw this logjam and pounced, providing the team with a player to replace the departed Myers while also securing other players in the deal as well. Despite Souza’s age relative to other prospects, Kiley McDaniel rated him the 52nd best prospect in Major League Baseball heading into the season. For the Rays, the move seems to have worked out in the early going.

Wil Myers: .291/.340/.493, 134 wRC+ Steven Souza: .233/.333/.475, 133 wRC+

— Jonah Keri (@jonahkeri) May 31, 2015

Souza has hit very well for the Rays and he has paired his good production with incredibly high strikeout numbers. Souza has only five starts in which he has not struck out this season. A look at the current strikeout rate leaders shows that most of the players at the top, like Souza, do have good overall production.

Name	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
Steven Souza	37.2	0.232	0.326	0.463	128
Chris Davis	35.4	0.227	0.313	0.500	123
Chris Carter	35.2	0.194	0.302	0.359	89
Jorge Soler	32.2	0.265	0.322	0.402	96
Giancarlo Stanton	31.4	0.228	0.318	0.508	120
Kris Bryant	30.2	0.280	0.396	0.480	143
Adam LaRoche	29.6	0.236	0.365	0.395	117
Joc Pederson	29.6	0.254	0.380	0.550	156
Brett Lawrie	28.6	0.266	0.294	0.372	87
George Springer	28.4	0.224	0.350	0.412	118

In order to rack up a lot of strikeouts, a player needs to have other aspects of his game that can compensate for producing so many outs without getting the ball in play. Souza has used his power, speed, and patience at the plate to make himself a positive contributor. Souza has seven steals, and has been worth about two runs above average on the basepaths this season. We don’t have enough innings to conclude much from his UZR in the outfield, but Souza should be able to use his speed to make more plays like this one:

While Souza does strike out a lot, he has also drawn a lot of walks. His 11.7% walk rate is 11th in the American League and consistent with his high walk rates in the minors. He does not chase a lot of pitches out of the zone, although when he does, he tends not to make contact. Consider: his 42% contact rate on pitches out of the zone is worst in the majors. Despite seeing a first-pitch strike nearly 70% of the time, Souza has seen more than four pitches per plate appearances, among the most in the majors. Souza has a low batting average due to the strikeouts, but his walks keep his on-base average afloat.

While speed and patience are part of Souza’s game, his power takes him from an average offensive player to an above-average one. With ten homers, Souza’s .232 ISO is 13th in the AL and, when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. Only 17 players this season have hit more than five batted balls with an exit velocity of 110 mph or greater, per Baseball Savant. Souza has eight such hits and the only players ahead of him on the leaderboard (Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Trout, Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Soler, Jose Abreu, and Miguel Cabrera) are not exactly lightweights. This is one such shot:

That same swing produces violent results even when he misses.

About a month ago, I took a look at the leaders in the three true outcomes when discussing the play of Joc Pederson. Souza appeared on the list at that time, but has shot to the top of the leaderboard.

	TTO%
Steven Souza	54.3%
Joc Pederson	52.4%
Chris Carter	52.3%
Bryce Harper	52.2%
Chris Davis	52.0%
Giancarlo Stanton	49.8%
Kris Bryant	48.9%
Adam LaRoche	48.7%
George Springer	48.3%
Paul Goldschmidt	43.7%

If Souza were to continue at his current pace, he would need only 600 plate appearances to tie the all-time single-season strikeout record and only 500 to break Pete Incaviglia’s rookie record. He’s not likely to continue at his current pace, however. The highest strikeout rate in the last decade belongs to Chris Carter in 2013, and even he “only” struck out in 36.2% of his plate appearances. Our Depth Chart Projections have Souza getting over 400 more at bats the rest of the way and striking out around 30% of the time, resulting in 199 strikeouts on the season. If he strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances moving forward, he will need just 387 plate appearances to break Incaviglia’s rookie record.

The strikeout record is likely not one Souza will cherish, but if he does reach it, that means he is doing something right. Souza will need good health and he will have to hit, walk, and run well enough to be worthy of the plate appearances necessary to break the record. Pete Incaviglia is not the worst company to have in the record books, but if Souza is able to reach both 20 home runs and 20 steals, his company would improve considerably. The only rookie to reach both of those numbers in the last five years? Mike Trout.