Sunday Notes: Analytics Have Changed, Leadership Hasn’t Changed
Last Sunday’s column led with J.D. Martinez, whose non-quantifiable impact on the Red Sox lineup was widely lauded. Deeply enmeshed in hitting mechanics and theory, the veteran slugger was both a sounding board and lead-by-example influence on several of his teammates. That didn’t go unnoticed by people around the game.
“J.D. rightfully so got credit for doing that,” said Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell, one of three managers I broached the subject with at the Winter Meetings. “It’s an important part of being a teammate — being connected and sharing. A player’s eyes are probably on each other more than they are on the coaches. They have a way to help each other, just as much as coaches do. You want to foster that environment. It’s something all teams should try to do.”
Asked for an example of a positive influence on his own team, Counsell cited Ryan Braun. Responding to that same question, Oakland manager Bob Melvin named a player who may or may not be wearing an A’s uniform next year.
“Jed was the guy last year for us,” Melvin said of now-free-agent Jed Lowrie. “(He) understands mechanics. He understands launch angles and exit velocities. (He) was a nice kind of player/coach for us to help out Bushy (hitting coach Darren Bush) with some of our younger guys.”
Martinez, Braun, and Lowrie are all north of 30 years old. They bring experience to the table. One of the two players who stood out to Washington Nationals manager Dave Martinez is barely removed from eating at the kids’ table. While Anthony Rendon is 28, Juan Soto played his entire rookie season as a teenager.
“We told some of our other players, just watch what they do,” Martinez said of Rendon and Soto. “And they started doing it and started getting better at it. So these guys… Juan is different, he really is. I’ve never seen a 19-year-old break down pitching and hitting and mechanics like he does. He’s a special kid.”
Circling back to Melvin, whichever team signs Lowrie will be getting a player who epitomizes the qualities mentioned herein. Veteran leadership — every bit as much as technical expertise — is the reason why.
“I don’t think the leadership qualities every team needs has changed,” said Melvin, who like his managerial brethren was aware of the intangibles Martinez brought to Boston. “That’s pretty consistent, and you know right away when you get guys who are going to be more instrumental along those lines. The analytics, and some of the things we’re teaching have changed a little bit, but not the leadership part.”
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From time to time I’ll start an interview by asking a player if he considers hitting to be more of an art or more of a science. The question works well as an ice-breaker for a pair of reasons: 1. It gives me insight into how the player thinks. 2. It makes the player think, thus decreasing the chances of a rote response. A non-cliched exchange usually gets an interview off on the right foot.
I recently used a variation of that question to kickstart a conversation with Cadyn Grenier. I asked the 22-year-old shortstop if he considers defense more of an art or more of a science. He fielded it with aplomb.
“I think it’s art,” said Grenier, whose defensive acumen is a big reason the Baltimore Orioles drafted him 37th overall this year out of Oregon State. “You don’t have all of the analytics — the science part — on defense like you do with hitting. It’s like a painter. You have your style, and the more time you put into it, the more you improve your craft.”
Being an artist with the glove involves a certain amount of individuality and creativity. Many of the game’s great shortstops — think Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel, and more recently Jose Iglesias — have possessed their own, unique styles. Much of what they do can’t be taught. The 2018 Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year isn’t quite in their class, but he does recognize that more than fundamentals go into being an elite defender.
“We all have our own way of doing things, and getting too cookie-cutter can take away from how you play defense,” said Greiner. “If you do something one way and it works for you — whether it’s glove size or how you move your feet — there’s no reason to go away from it.”
Clint Barmes was a plus defender despite his acknowledged unorthodox footwork when scooping up ground balls. If the up-and-coming Oriole has any quirks of his own, he’s unsure of what they might be.
“I don’t ever look at myself and think, ‘I do this weird,’” said Grenier, who is familiar with the slick-fielding former Rockies and Pirates shortstop. “I just go out and try to perfect what I’m good at. The more I practice, the better I get. It’s pretty simple, really.”
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Red Barron went 3 for 10 against Watty Clark.
Pid Purdy went 5 for 11 against Jesse Petty.
Chicken Hawks went 7 for 11 against Flint Rhem.
Ty Cobb went 8 for 11 against Mellie Wolfgang.
Tuck Stainback went 8 for 11 against Huck Betts.
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Opportunities differ throughout MLB, and that’s especially true for young, unproven players. As Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona explained to me this summer, the standings can impact who-plays decisions just as much as roster composition does.
“If you’re out of it, you can let guys play,” said Francona. “If you’re a contender it’s hard to go with a kid, sink or swim. Sometimes you need to hit now, and not everybody is ready to do that.”
There are, of course, times where a seemingly-not-ready-for-prime-time player does get a chance to prove himself on a contender. Back when he was managing the Red Sox, Francona stuck with an undersized infielder who was struggling to hit his weight.
“Sometimes it comes down to how the rest of your team is doing,” the two-time World Series-winning skipper told me. “Remember Dustin Pedroia that first year? He was doing bad, but he seemed to handle it and we were doing so well that we could carry him. Then he broke out of it. Sometimes it’s other circumstances.”
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NEWSY STUFF
Yomiuri Giants right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano has reportedly signed a ¥650 million (approximately $5.7 million) contract, equaling the highest ever for an NPB player. Sugano had 10 complete games, eight shutouts, and a 2.14 ERA this season.
The Giants have also agreed to terms with Ryan Cook. The 31-year-old right-hander heads to NPB having appeared in 236 games over parts of six seasons with the A’s, D-Backs, Red Sox, and Mariners.
MLB salaries fell this year for the first time since 2004. According to the players’ union, the average salary was $4,095,686, down from $4,097,122 in the 2017 season.
The Binghamton Rumble Ponies, the Double-A affiliate of the New York Mets, have named Kevin Boles as their new manager. He replaces Luis Rojas, who will remain in the organization as the Mets quality control coach. Boles managed the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox for each of the past five seasons.
The newest entry in the Expedition League — a summer collegiate league based in Nebraska — has been branded as the Fremont Moo. Yes, they have a quality logo.
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One week ago today, Diamond Digest ran a Twitter poll that asked the following:
You only get to use one of these two sites for the rest of your life — Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs — which are choosing?
There were 4,713 votes cast, with B-Ref coming out on top with 60% support.
While my vote went to the side receiving 40%, I do want to take this opportunity to say that B-Ref is an invaluable resource. At the risk of sounding excessively effusive, Sean Forman, the site’s fearsome leader, is a God among men in the baseball community. Good on you for existing, B-Ref.
That said, we can only assume hanging chads and uncounted ballots — FanGraphs is clearly the better choice. Fortunately we don’t have to choose between the two
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Looking back at this year’s World Series, it was more compelling than a lot of people have claimed. On the heels of an epic, 18-inning affair that ended at 3:30 a.m. EST, the Dodgers led the Red Sox 4-0 through six innings in Game 4. With Rich Hill dealing, all signs pointed to the Series being knotted at two games apiece. That didn’t happen, of course. Dave Roberts went to his bullpen earlier than he should have, Alex Cora’s club ultimately broke a tie with five in the ninth, and the rest is history.
Were it not for the Red Sox rally, Yasiel Puig’s Game 4 home run — complete with Puig-like exultation — would be a signature moment rather than an afterthought (ditto Eduardo Rodriguez spiking his glove as Puig’s blast was leaving the yard). Instead, the night’s biggest hits belonged to a trio of Boston hitters — Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers — the first of whom was later named Series MVP.
Let’s not forget the second of those three names. Moreland’s two-out, three-run blast off Ryan Madson — his only hit of the Series — brought the Red Sox to within 4-3 in the seventh inning. There may not have been a more important swing in the 2018 Fall Classic.
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
At The Japan Times, Jason Coskrey filled us in how Yu Kato is helping shine light on women’s baseball in Japan.
Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times provided more details about the contentious firing of Mariners high performance director Dr. Lorena Martin.
Over at The Athletic, Corey Brock brought us behind the scenes of a broadcast hopeful, Anders Jorstad, pursuing his diamond dreams at the Winter Meetings.
Ryan Flaherty is a free agent again, awaiting the call from a major league team. Kevin Thomas wrote about the versatile Maine native at The Portland Press Herald.
What will baseball in 2018 be remembered for forever? Sam Miller offered his ever-erudite take over at ESPN.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS LEAD-IN
A few weeks ago I tweeted the following:
Kris Bryant had a 119 adjusted OPS this season and has 1,081 career total bases. Nicholas Castellanos had a 130 adjusted OPS this season and has 1,260 career total bases. Castellanos is two months younger than Bryant.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the response wasn’t particularly positive. A number of people jumped on me for having the audacity, and stupidity, to say that Castellanos was better than Bryant. It was as though I were claiming that Harold Baines is more worthy of the Hall of Fame than Larry Walker.
Of course, I wasn’t saying that at all. As readers of this column know— ditto a decent percentage of my Twitter followers —I’m a fan of random facts and stats. They’re informative, sometimes thought-provoking, and hopefully entertaining.
Consider the foofaraw-inducing Bryant-Castellanos “comp.”
Bryant has played 77% of his games as a third baseman and 20% of his games an outfielder. Castellanos has played 75% of his games as a third baseman and 24% of his games as an outfielder. Both are right-handed hitters with power. They are, as noted in the aforementioned tweet, essentially the same age.
Do they also differ in many ways? Absolutely. As a FanGraphs reader, you’re well aware that they do. There’s no real need for me to qualify a “random fact and stat” with a description of those differences — which in this case would show that Bryant is, by most accounts, the superior player. Given a choice, I’d clearly take the Cub.
That said, is there any guarantee that Bryant will be the superior player going forward? As likely as that is, it’s worth noting that you can’t predict baseball.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Larry Walker hit .348 at home and .278 on the road (a .070 difference). DJ LeMahieu has hit .330 at home and .264 on the road (a .066 difference).
Larry Walker debuted with the Montreal Expos in 1989 and finished the season with 56 plate appearances and three sacrifice hits. Walker had seven sacrifices over his 17-year career, the last of them coming in May 1991.
Andrew McCutchen has hit 20-or-more home runs in each of the last eight seasons.
Buster Posey (.304) and Wilson Ramos (.290) have the highest batting averages among catchers with at least 450 plate appearances over the past two seasons. Kevan Smith ranks third, at .286.
Among non-pitchers with 2,000-or-more plate appearances, Mike Ryan’s .193 batting average is the lowest over the last 100 years. Jeff Mathis, at .198, is second lowest. Mike Zunino, at .207, is third lowest. All three are catchers.
Edgar Martinez had a .312 batting average and a .418 on-base percentage. Joey Votto has a .311 batting average and a .427 on-base percentage.
Ted Kluszewski, Mickey Mantle and Jim Rice each played through age 36 and finished his career with a .298 batting average. All three would have finished at .300 or higher had they not played their final season.
Babe Ruth twice had more wins than strikeouts in a season. The erstwhile southpaw went 1-0 with no Ks in both 1920 and 1933. (per @PassonJim)
Early Wynn got 217 of his 300 career wins after his 30th birthday.
Nolan Ryan pitched 27 seasons and had a 112 adjusted ERA. Tommy John pitched 26 seasons and had a 111 adjusted ERA.
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
FanGraphs + Baseball-Reference = complete justification for the existence of “Alt-Tab”.
Which do you like better: breathing in or breathing out?
I would say it’s more like: Which do you like more? Addition or calculus? BRef is the single best website for the history of baseball. It has so much more information than fangraphs, it’s not even close. But the advanced stats here are better.
I switch between them when I’m reading a Fangraphs article all the time.
Well, you can do addition without calculus, so you killed the analogy!
Two different versions of WAR seemed frustrating at first, but is hugely useful. B-R makes sense for studying past results as an ERA based WAR, FG gives you more granular data and FIP WAR, and therefore offers a big edge on player projection. I can’t see using one without the other, though.
Of course you can do addition without calculus. That’s very much my point. And it can be fun! I would get bored if I couldn’t do calculus though. I’m not The Count from Sesame Street.
I think the reason the Twitter poll split 60/40 in favor of B-R is that the question was which ONE website would you use…probably most respondents value the depth of stats and splits that B-R provides. FanGraphs has a focus on analysis/opinion with a somewhat less extensive set of stats available.
On that note, I’d like to give a shout out to the “other” Sean (Dolinar), who has added a bleep-ton of great data tools that bring FanGraphs way closer to B-R’s functionality.
I’m gonna go with Retrosheet over B-R for “the single best website for the history of baseball.”
The style of these articles is very fan-boyish. always taking coaches and players quotes at face value.
Leadership has changed alot. Consider just issues in recent years- Harper & Papelbon issues, etc. But for this ‘easy sunday reading’ series, quotes are taken at face value and turned into headlines. Ryan Braun isn’t a great leader, he is a PED user- taking this regressive, old white yerda nonsense at face value is Trumpy.
David’s writing is 50 years out of date, just regressive boring stuff.
I wasn’t aware leadership and PED usage were mutually exclusive.
They generally are- or more to the point, the requirements for leadership do change.
Just merely consider the issue of ‘throwing at someones’ head’ to enforce unwritten rules- many clubs have finally changed their arcane concepts of leadership to oppose these rules, but many older clubs still use leadership criteria that includes enforcement of these rules.
This article series never provides any insights and is just jock-sniffing, face-value, fan boy stuff. It comes off as trite to sport professionals- which used to not be true of fangraphs.
“David’s writing is 50 years out of date, just regressive boring stuff.”
So why read it? You’re in a bad mood this morning and looking for someone to insult?
Not every internet message board comment has to be positive.
Ilanaka’s style is very expensive. They always have teachers and read the players at a price.
The world has changed a lot. Look at the question of recent years – Harper & Papelbon question, etc. but for this “Easi Sundai String”, bids are made at a price and converted into a title. Ryan Brovn is not tall, he’s very good, he’s lost his regression, old, tall, tall, tall, white, stupid.
David’s article is 50 years old, only boring things are coming back.
Do you get any enjoyment out of this site at all, Thomas?
Of course, most readers do. Jeff S, Jeff Z, Dan S are still excellent. Jay’s HoF stuff is usually good. Sheryl’s work is usually insightful.
The rest is generally Tim Kurkjian level poor though, this series in particular seems to be less skeptical, informed, or probing than any content on any sport site.
Why do fangraphs commentators act as if any critique is somehow absurd? Surely you are aware that sport writing can be poor, it can degrade, it can become too industry-friendly, corporate, and – as is the case here- mindless.
That doesn’t mean people have to stop using the site built on Tom Tango, Dave Cameron and Tony Blengino insights. It just means that the editorial board is undermining the quality of the site with insight-free, content-for-content-sake, ineffective writers.
The entire point of this seres is to present a series of light takes and tidbits to read on a lazy Sunday afternoon. I’m sorry this website has evolved more quickly than you are willing to. Welcome to (almost) 2019. Expecting more out of a niche website that is simply trying to survive in the current online landscape is futile, and railing against it publicly and ruining the experience of others with your diatribes makes you obnoxious.
“Why do fangraphs commentators act as if any critique is somehow absurd?”
“Any” critique? That’s patently false and you know it.
To name just one recent example, Rian’s least-important-pitch-of-the-year article had critiques questioning his methodology, and none of them were in the red, because they were civil and constructive.
Your critiques, on the other hand:
— Are little more than insults and personal attacks. (“David’s writing is 50 years out of date, just regressive boring stuff,” Travis and Craig write disingenuous articles to further an agenda, etc.)
— State opinions as fact. (“Jeff S, Jeff Z, Dan S are still excellent. Jay’s HoF stuff is usually good. Sheryl’s work is usually insightful. The rest is generally Tim Kurkjian level poor…” If you think so, fine, but clearly there are many who disagree.)
— Reek of arrogance. Who are you and what are your credentials to call the site’s writers “mindless,” “insight-free,” and “ineffective”?
— Are completely pointless. Or do you really think your repetitive, uncivil comments–from a non-member, no less–are going to effect change?
“There are many things that you can’t measure. But the great fun of what I do for a living is figuring out ways to measure things that people previously considered intangible.” (Bill James)
Next year, you could register for the winter meetings and ask questions on your own time, if you want, and if anyone will talk to you.
If you build it, they will come. If you ignore him, he will go away.
“Early Wynn got 217 of his 300 career wins after his 30th birthday.”
So …. you are saying he should be called Later Wynn.
To be fair, if you tweet out that Castellanos had a better offensive year than Bryant (which is technically true) and is the same age, there is a reasonable assumption that your argument is that Castellanos will be the better (offensive) player going forward.
Also, total bases is a garbage stat, since it doesn’t include walks and rewards players who have played for longer. Castellanos debuted a full year earlier than Bryant and has 100 fewer walks.
I think you’re right that it follows, but I also think it’s kind of silly that it has to follow that people ought to assume an argument for one over the other is being made. Bryant’s definitely the more complete hitter, but the comp. on these grounds is illustrative of Castellanos’ appeal as a middle-of-the-order bat. Another way of looking at the comp is to leave out the names and ask how useful is a R/R mid-late 20’s player with substantial power who can move between 3B and LF/RF. Bryant has played all over the corners so far in his career.
My reaction was: (1) Castellanos is a bit of a better hitter than I realized; any team would be lucky to call him their 4th or 5th best regular, and (2) this is an interesting player profile in a short bench era, and Bryant is probably the top of this food chain of player profile. If you added in walks, yeah, the two players aren’t especially close to this point.
It was also Castellanos’ best year of his career and Bryant’s worst. I didn’t even touch on that part of it. Castellanos is a liner-dependent player, kind of like Hosmer that way–hitting lots of liners is good, very good, lots of extra-base hits and higher BABIPs. But not everyone can do it consistently (and Hosmer and Castellanos are good examples of that).
A bigger point missed is that Bryant turned down a 200 mill extension and Cast could be had for peanuts today- Bryant is probably over-rated and Cast under not everything is about “whoes better”
Why toss out this random fact so unfortunately(?) designed to bait people into arguing a point you’ll then say haha I didn’t say that? So you can write it up later in a different context and reiterate how your communication was unflawed and their interpretation was poor? All seems like a mildly trollish move.
There are lots of ways the interchange could have come about, but the nicer ways would have led to a different following writeup than this one.
(“It was just a random fact, no implications” is like “I was just asking” as a discourse maneuver.)
Fun Jeff Mathis Fact:
On August 28, 2018, Mathis singled in the bottom of the 4th inning against the Mariners’ Mike Leake, bringing his career batting average above .200 for the first time since June 6, 2011 (1,450 plate appearances). Four plate appearances later, in his next start vs. the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (8/31/2018), Mathis’s career BA fell back under .200 for the remainder of the 2018 season.
Baseball Reference for the stats, Fangraphs for the analysis.
Do they also differ in many ways? Absolutely. As a FanGraphs reader, you’re well aware that they do. There’s no real need for me to qualify a “random fact and stat” with a description of those differences — which in this case would show that Bryant is, by most accounts, the superior player. Given a choice, I’d clearly take the Cub.
That said, is there any guarantee that Bryant will be the superior player going forward? As likely as that is, it’s worth noting that you can’t predict baseball.
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This is a perfect example of extremely poor writing by fangraphs standards.
Does David even show awareness of modern regression work? Not really. Of course you can predict baseball to some extent. That is what this whole site is built on- being able to predict baseball with a decent amount of accuracy. Quant work isn’t absolutist, it focuses on finding out what can be predicted and to what extent. Fortunately, there are many things in baseball that are easy to predict, and nearly all of the top clubs are racing to get better and better at this exact aspect of baseball. Dave’s folksy, regressive analysis is lazy, butt-kissing, and well behind the times. What percentage of his articles are just quotes from people in the game, taken at face value- plus a few ‘Ian Kinsler went 2-15 against Dellin Betences’ type nonsense.
And Bryant is preferred by most accounts- but by all. This boring, low quality, stuff- makes Dave Stewart look progressive. This will probably be one of the only Dave articles to reach double digit comments in a while- except when vouching for Omar Vizquel’s HoF candidacy.
Dave & Meg- the quality of this site keeps getting worse, its basically an ESPN brand at this point.
Why are you bringing me into this?
And, BWT, I’m a Geicko man. Can’t stand Flo!
Dumbass.
Its 2 word’s, dumb ass.
How do I even respond?
Like this.
This conversation is really getting old.
Like your Phillie’s team’s.
I’d like to see you talk while LaRussa drinks a glass of water.
Do they make a big difference? Completely. No one is in the fantagraphy. In my presence, there is no real need to qualify “crime and random table ” With a description of the difference, in this case it can be seen that Bryant, according to Scaters, is superior to the players. If I have a choice, they are likely to put the nymars.
Is there a guarantee that Bryant will be the game of fairies? It’s a possible thing to do, it’s worth knowing that he’s a brain-able baseball.
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This is a perfect example of the extremely poor text of the Fangraf.
Does David even show a sense of modern regression jobs? Not really. Sure. That’s why the whole position is very bald to predict a baseball with an exact match. This work is not an absolute expert, focuses on finding what it envisions and at what level. In the sense of luck, there’s a lot of stuff in baseball that’s very easy to predict, and almost every top club races to get better on the baseball part. Dave, the bad, regression analysis is lazy, kissing her butt, and her time off. The percentage of the Ilanaka that was written by the people in the game, shot as a Plus, and I’m Ian Kinlssler’s shut down 2-15 before Delhi.
And Bryant was more impressive than the Rutherford condition. This low-quality and unpleasant tool from the sky that Dave Stewart looks progressive. It’s probably one of the most expensive Davlev from Ilanaka, who receives double comments, except for the Omar Vizal nomination.
Dave and Meg-quality of this site is getting worse, currently in the place of Sezame for ESPN.
I can imagine Trevor Bauer plotting what he could do with a brain-able baseball.
You don’t have to comment on everything you see dude. If you don’t like it just let it go once in a while. Furthermore, you should examine your feeling of ownership of the soul/identity of Fangraphs, an organization I assume comprises only people you have never met. This column, and this website, does not require your personal approval to exist. Go have a beer or something.
Why are you bringing me into this?
Beer, have you ever subtly handed off a loudmouth to someone else at a bar? You’re it, Suds.
I love David’s Sunday column. As someone who predominantly follows a single team, he introduces me to interesting players, along with their stories and contexts, who I wouldn’t know about otherwise. I don’t read these columns for analysis, I read them for perspectives and insights that are almost impossible to find elsewhere. I almost never miss reading it. (And if I time it right, I can even get it pulled up on my phone while my Sunday a.m. coffee’s still warm.)
On B-R vs. FG: Are there known gaps in minor league data for you guys? I’m on first round of 1997 MLB draft. I can’t find players who pitched in the minors but didn’t ever play in MLB – examples: Aaron Akin, Geoff Goetz. Usually typing in their full middle name makes them show up, but not this time.
And also, it doesn’t look like there’s minor league data for the guys who did debut. Example: Vernon Wells played 1997 and 1998 in the minors, then split 1999 between the minors and MLB. His player page reads like he got drafted in 1997 and then debuted in 1999 with no minor league experience.