Sunday Notes: Let’s Look at Adrián Beltré, Brooks Robinson, and Graig Nettles.

Per the JAWS leaderboard, Adrián Beltré (4) and Scott Rolen (10) rank highest among third basemen not in the Hall of Fame. Beltré will almost certainly get the nod once he becomes eligible, while the currently-on-the ballot Rolen has been making strong headway toward Cooperstown. If and when both players are enshrined, which non-Hall of Fame third baseman will rank highest in JAWS?

The answer is Graig Nettles, who ranks 12th (11th if you don’t include Edgar Martinez). In terms of WAR, Nettles (65.7) ranks right in front of Martinez (65.5), and close behind Rolen (69.9). Beltré (84.1) is comfortably ahead of all three.

Should Nettles be in the Hall of Fame? His accolades and accomplishments include 390 home runs, six All-Star berths, two Gold Gloves — he’d have won more were it not for Brooks Robinson — and a pair of World Series rings. All told, he played in five Fall Classics. Back when Jay Jaffe was writing for Sports Illustrated, my esteemed colleague tabbed Nettles as the most-overlooked player at his position when it comes to Hall of Fame worthiness.

Meanwhile, was Beltré better than Robinson? A clear majority of the people who voted in a Twitter poll I ran yesterday feel that he was. Of the 337 people who weighed in, 61.7% opted for Beltré, while only 38.3% sided with the legendary Baltimore Orioles Hall of Famer.

This is a case of “better” and “most historic” having different meanings.

Beltré has the edge in both JAWS (71.1 to 62.1) and WAR (84.1 to 80.2). Robinson had 15 All-Star seasons, was awarded 16 Gold Gloves, and captured an MVP award. He was also a stalwart on four Baltimore World Series teams, two of which took home a title. As great as he was, Beltré can’t come close to matching those bona fides.

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Consider me in Robinson’s corner.

———

Sandy Koufax was a no-doubt Hall of Famer when his career ended prematurely due to an elbow injury. The most dominant moundsman of his generation, Koufax threw his last pitch in the 1966 World Series, just days after celebrating his 31st birthday. Cementing his status as an all-time great, the Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw captured NL Cy Young awards in three of his final four seasons.

Johan Santana threw his final pitch in 2012, at age 33. He did so after missing the previous season with a shoulder injury that essentially torpedoed his own career. At his electric best, the Minnesota Twins and New York Mets left-hander was nearly Koufax’s equal. Here is a snapshot comparison:

Koufax won three Cy Young awards and had a 156 ERA+ in his six-year prime. Overall, he went 165-87 with a 131 ERA+ over 2,324 innings.

Santana won two Cy Young awards and had a 156 ERA+ in his six-year prime. Overall, he went 139-78 with a 131 ERA+ over 2,025 innings.

Koufax was voted into the Hall of Fame in his first year on the ballot. Santana spent just one year on the ballot, having received 2.4% of support from the electorate. That’s borderline inexplicable. Koufax may well have been the better of the two, but the disparity is nevertheless criminal. Santana merits another look via the eras committee. Moreover, he probably deserves to join Koufax in the Hall. Statistically, the two are more similar than many realize.

———

RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Moose Skowron went 0 for 9 against Paul LaPalme.

Harmon Killebrew went 1 for 9 against Rich Hand.

Champ Summers went 2 for 9 against Rollie Fingers.

Gavvy Cravath went 3 for 9 against Jimmy Ring.

Alex Bregman went 4 for 9 against Doug Fister.

———

Left on the cutting-room floor from my recent Talks Hitting interview with Michael Fransoso were his thoughts on Gunn Omosako. A 20-year-old outfielder from Sao Paulo, Brazil, Omasoko spent last season with Seattle’s Arizona Complex League affiliate, slashing .173/.346/.383 with four home runs in 104 plate appearances. I asked Fransoso about the youngster’s early-career developmental challenges.

“Phenomenal, phenomenal kid,” said Fransoso, who was the Mariners’ ACL hitting coach last year. “He works his tail off. I loved working with him because of that, and while he did struggle a little bit at the plate, he’s young. Being from Brazil, where there’s not as much baseball, he’s also maybe a few years behind [his peers]. But he’s got some raw power. He’s got some some juice in that bat. We’re working on the mental game with him.”

Fransoso went on to say that swing decisions are a big part of that. He pointed to how hitters tend to chase when they aren’t having success, in part because they’re searching for results rather than focusing on process. Stephanie Hale, a mental performance coach in the Seattle system, played a primary role in those efforts.

“Steph has done a lot of work with Gunn in terms of that mental game, and he’s growing in that area,” explained Fransoso. “She’s been awesome, working with our hitters, and also working with me on how we relay messages to our hitters. Our mantra of dominating the zone is very mental. Being in the right mindset, in the right headspace, when you go up to the plate is huge for any hitter.”

———

Grayson Rodriguez toes the rubber in atypical fashion. The 22-year-old right-hander in the Baltimore Orioles system doesn’t take the mound wearing traditional baseball footwear. Instead, he wears basketball shoes with cleats attached to them.

“I prefer the basketball shoes, because they have a little bit flatter base and sole,” explained Rodriguez, who is widely regarded as the game’s best pitching prospect. “The more ground contact that your foot has, the more force and power you can create. A company called Custom Cleats makes them for me. You just send in basketball shoes, or whatever kind of shoes you want, and they’ll slap some spikes on the bottom and send them back. [Fellow Orioles pitching prospect] D.L. Hall gets them as well. ”

Rodriguez was wearing standard basketball shoes when he kicked a 40-yard field goal last month, with the video of his effort going viral. Making the left-footed boot even more impressive is that the Nacogdoches, Texas native doesn’t have a background as a kicker.

“I just started learning how to kick,” said Rodriguez, whose explanation exuded both confidence and humility. “I was just kind of messing around with it, and that was as far as I could go. I mean, there were a lot of kicks before that video that didn’t really even get off the ground. But could I [potentially become a bona fide place kicker]? I wouldn’t put it past me.”

———

A quiz:

Cy Young had a record 15 seasons with 20 or more wins. Two pitchers — one a right-hander, the other a left-hander — had 13 seasons with 20 or more or wins. Who are they?

The answer can be found below.

———

NEWS NOTES

The Double-A Mississippi Braves have named Bruce Crabbe their new manager. The 60-year-old will be joining the Atlanta organization after 17 years coaching and managing in the Boston Red Sox system.

The Springfield Sliders of the summer-collegiate Prospect League are rebranding and will now be known as the Springfield Lucky Horseshoes. The Illinois-based team plays at Robin Roberts Stadium. (Per Ballpark Digest.)

The Society For American Baseball Research announced a new panel for its 2022 SABR Virtual Analytics Conference, which will take place from March 17-20. The Technical Side of Being an Analyst panel will comprise Karim Kassam, the Director of Product and Strategy for Zelus Analytics, Maggie O’Hara, Senior Analyst in Baseball Operations for the Detroit Tiger, and Nick Wan, Director of Analytics for the Cincinnati Reds. Moderating will be Dan Aucoin, Chief Research Officer at Driveline Baseball.

Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki topped out 101.3 mph in his first spring training outing on Saturday. The 20-year-old NPB sensation plays for the Chiba Lotte Marines. (Per Sung Min Kim.)

———

The answer to the quiz is Christy Mathewson and Warren Spahn.

———

Adam Ottavino addressed several topics on Friday’s episode of FanGraphs Audio, and as you might expect, sliders was among them. The veteran reliever relies heavily on the pitch, and for good reason. His is considered one of the best in the business.

Which of the current free agent’s former teammates has the best slider?

“There are just so many different kinds of sliders,” Ottavino said on the podcast. “Everything between a curveball and a cutter, right? I guess the first one that pops to mind is Chris Sale. I played with him last year, and have been watching him his whole career. He’s got an unbelievable breaking ball from the left side. Part of the thing with him is [that] there aren’t too many guys with his release point from the left side, so it’s coming in at an angle that hitters aren’t used to seeing. It really messes them up. That’s the big-breaking variety of slider. In terms of the shorter, tighter bite — those more gyroscopic sliders — Gerrit Cole had a really good one when I played with him.

“Another guy who I think has an unbelievable breaking ball is Germán Márquez, who I played with in Colorado,” added Ottavino. “He has a curveball and a slider. He has an ability to throw both — throw them slower, throw them harder, [have] more downward break, [have] more lateral break. He’s someone… especially doing it at altitude. He’s got a gift for spinning the ball.”

———

Two quotes of note, one from a book I just finished, and another from a book I just picked up:

In the final chapter of The Pride of Minnesota: The Twins in the Turbulent 1960s, author Thom Henninger wrote, “After the 1962 campaign, baseball owners — worried about the increase in homers — voted to expand the strike zone from the armpits to the top of the shoulders at the high end, and from the knees to the bottom of the knees on the low end.”

On page four of her autobiography, Becoming, Michelle Obama wrote, “I’d sit on my dad’s lap and in his recliner and listen to him narrate how the Cubs were in the middle of a late-season swoon or why Billy Williams, who lived just around the corner from us on Constance Avenue, had such a sweet swing from the left side of the plate.”

As history shows, MLB ultimately lowered the mound following the 1968 season and has since shrunk the strike zone markedly. The Cubs, whose infamous late-season swoon came in 1969, went on to finally capture a World Series title — their first in over a century — in 2016. Williams was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1987.

———

Samad Taylor — featured here at FanGraphs earlier this month — isn’t your typical California kid. As a matter of fact, the Riverside County native is anything but that. A 23-year-old infielder/outfielder in the Toronto Blue Jays system, Taylor moved to South Dakota a handful of years ago.

“It was just a step to take in life, really,” Taylor said of the atypical relocation. “I’ve never really been a big fan of California, and believe it or not, I like the cold weather. I know that sounds kind of weird. But my cousin told me I should move here, and while I was kind of leery about it, I came out here and saw how genuine the people are, and how nice everything was. So, I was like, ‘Hey, let’s do it.’ I ended up moving out here in either 2017 or 2018.”

While he likes cold weather, he’s not a fan of shoveling snow. Which isn’t to say he’s bothered by the frozen precipitation itself. “As Taylor put it, “When it snows here, it’s just snow.”

———

LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

The owners-imposed MLB lockout will adversely affect a metro-Phoenix area that in normal years experiences a spring-training-fueled economic boom. Bill Shaikin addressed the issue at The Los Angeles Times.

What is spring training like in NPB? Yuka Nakamura answered that question at The Mainichi Shimbun.

Call To The Pen’s Noah Yingling examined Luis Tiant’s Hall of Fame case.

Writing for SABR’s Game Project, Tim Hagerty told us about Chick Hafey’s 5-for-5, 8-RBI effort for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1931.

At Viva El Birdos, Blake Newberry looked into whether Cardinals righty Alex Reyes has the best slider in baseball.

———

RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

The St. Louis Cardinals have had one losing season this century. Since 2000, they have made the postseason 15 times and captured two World Series titles.

Prior to their 1969 World Series-winning season, the New York Mets had never finished higher than ninth place. The most wins they’d had in a season was 73.

Bobby Grich finished his career with 71.0 bWAR — 36.0 with the Baltimore Orioles, and 35.0 with the California Angels.

Baltimore Orioles pitchers went 7 for 30 with four extra-base hit, six runs scored, and 10 RBIs in the 1970 postseason. Southpaw starters Mike Cuellar and Dave McNally hit grand slams.

Charles Gipson, an infielder/outfielder for four teams from 1998-2005, played in 373 games and had 366 plate appearances. He spent the majority of his career with the Seattle Mariners.

Orel Hershiser signed a free agent contract with Cleveland on today’s date in 1995. The longtime Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander proceeded to go 45-21 with a 3.12 ERA in his three seasons with the AL Central club.

Players born on today’s date include Boardwalk Brown, who pitched for the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Athletics from 1911-1915. Christened Carrol William Brown in Woodbury New, Jersey, the right-hander went 17-11 with a 2.94 in 1913, a season in which he walked 15 batters in a 16-9 win over the Detroit Tigers.

Also born on today’s date was Jim Toy, who played for the Cleveland Blues in 1887, and for the Brooklyn Gladiators in 1890. A multi-positional player who was born in Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania, Toy is considered by some to be the first Native American player in big-league history

Players born on tomorrow’s date include Jouett Meekin, who pitched for five teams from 1891-1900. A right-hander who had a 33-9 season with the New York Giants, Meekin is believed to have issued baseball’s first-ever intentional walk.

This past week marked the eighth anniversary of this column, Sunday Notes having debuted here at FanGraphs on February 16, 2014. Thanks as always for reading.





David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.

27 Comments
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danfinno1Member since 2018
4 years ago

Thanks for the eight years David. Congrats, your column is a must read always enjoyable.

TonyMember since 2017
4 years ago

Happy eight year anniversary for your column! Reading your column is one of the first things I do each Sunday morning. I’m glad you chose a baseball path.

snakestl
4 years ago

Thanks for all you do, David. The Sunday notes column is always a part of my Sunday morning coffee routine.

doctorprancerMember since 2020
4 years ago

Hapy anniversary

Dmjn53
4 years ago

Thanks for bringing up Santana. His HOF case might look very different if he wasn’t robbed of his 3rd Cy Young in 2005.

1) Bartolo Colon 222 innings, 3.48 ERA, 122 ERA+ 1.15WHIP 3.75 FIP, 6.3 K/9 4.0 WAR, but crucially 21-8
2) Mariano Rivera: an outstanding 4.0 WAR relief season, but a relief season nonetheless
3 Johan Santana 231 innings, 2.87 ERA, 182 ERA+ 0.97 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 9.2 K/9 7.2 WAR but only 16-7

To me this is something that HOF voters need to be aware of and take into account. Awards are subjective and are often awarded incorrectly. This is a case where Santana was the clear best pitcher in the AL, having an arbitrary award shouldn’t change that

Josh
4 years ago
Reply to  Dmjn53

David, though, weighs (meaningless, IMO) accolades in his evaluations of HOF “bona fides.” Hence why Brooks Robinson gets credited as more important than Adrian Beltre, despite Beltre actually being the better player. I find awards given by frankly pretty wack humans – players, managers, and writers (I’m no prize myself) to be a weird way to add value to a player’s resume. But it’s all relative.

Barney Coolio
4 years ago
Reply to  Josh

David said that Brooks Robinson is more “historic” than Adrian Beltre. I don’t know how anyone can disagree with that.

Firstly, Robinson played 23 seasons with one team, while Beltre played for 4 teams. Clearly, Robinson is more historic to a team, the Orioles, than Beltre is to any of his teams. Robinson is seen as a superlative, “the best defensive 3b of all time,” he might not deserve it, but he has that title. Beltre doesn’t have a claim on a title.

Dmjn53
4 years ago
Reply to  Barney Coolio

He might be more historic in Baltimore, but I’m not sure about an overall baseball perspective.

I guess it’s an age thing? You have to be at least 60 to have remembered Brooks Robinson, whereas we all have fresh memories of Beltre. We have both our eyes and modern metrics to judge Beltre, and we don’t have either of those to judge Brooks. All we have is Total Zone and gold gloves. I don’t trust TZ at all, and I couldn’t care less about gold gloves given the numerous examples we have about them being popularity contests

pbarrese13Member since 2018
4 years ago

Thanks David. Love the attention for Johan, its a crime he only got on ballot for one year.

Joe Brady
4 years ago

I’m not sure if Nettles is a HOFer, but imo, he should at least be nominated. It’s tough to rank fielders, but he was about as good as anyone I’ve ever seen. Brooks has an OPS+ of 105, Beltre is at 115, and Nettles at 110, directly in the middle. The range factors are almost impossible to compare, but are at least objective. Brooks has a 3.20/9, Beltre has a 2.78, and Nettles has a 3.13. Brooks got 92% in his first vote, and I am pretty sure Beltre will be a first-ballot also. Nettles deserves a nomination.

And I don’t want to brag, but as a RS fan, I’d like to think I hate the Yankees as much as anyone. And I always thought Nettles was as important to the Yankees as Boggs was to the RS.

IRT Grich, he should’ve been a 1st ballot HOFer. He is 8th in 2B fWAR, despite about 20% less PAs than the guys above him.

Joe Brady
4 years ago
Reply to  Joe Brady

And just as an add-on, if you go by fWAR/650 PAs, Grich is #5 all-time.

Left of Centerfield
4 years ago
Reply to  Joe Brady

I agree 100% that Grich should be in the HOF and I find it mind-boggling that he doesn’t even get nominated by the Era’s Committees (or whatever they’re called). That being said, it’s not hard to see why voters at the time didn’t see him as a HOFer. There’s really nothing that jumps out about his career if you look at his traditional stats or his accomplishments (MVP voting, All-Star games, etc).

gettwobrute79Member since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Joe Brady

It’s kind of funny how players can be overshadowed playing for the Yankees. But that seemed to be the case with Randolph and Nettles.

mrdog61Member since 2017
4 years ago

Happy Anniversary David! My favorite cup of coffee every week is spent reading this column

weinventyou
4 years ago

Congrats David! I’ve only been on board the last couple years, but your column is always enjoyable Sunday morning reading for me, really appreciate it.

PC1970Member since 2024
4 years ago

Congrats on the 8 years! Always read this on Sunday AM.

& I like the new functionality on the posts. Long overdue to be able to # bullet points, bold, underline, etc..& see whom someone replied to, which could get confusing under the old format.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago

I find the argument that Brooks Robinson is better because his teams had more success to be incredibly unconvincing. Brooks Robinson is a Hall of Famer because he got to play with Frank Robinson, Jim Palmer, and Boog Powell? Is that really where we want to go?

Dmjn53
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

That goes for a lot of guys though. We look at Jeter a lot differently if he gets drafted one spot earlier to the Reds

tarvisMember since 2019
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I am not sure that David made this argument, though, as was noted above he argued Brooks was more historic and that he was “in Robinson’s corner” after stating Beltre was statistically a “better” player.

I read David’s comment more as a “pick which career was best” as he was discussing the Hall of Fame, after all. His conclusion that he would favor Robinson’s in spite of his overall slight statistical inferiority is … I don’t know … pretty convincing to me, ha ha.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  tarvis

I’m perfectly fine with the argument that Robinson had a better career. I think I could make that argument if I had to, based on his peak. But not because he had better teammates. The circles in the venn diagram that read “better” and “more historic” are only barely overlapping with each other.

Last edited 4 years ago by sadtrombone
MichaelMember since 2017
4 years ago

Fabulous column as always.

brothermathias714
4 years ago

Koufax’s career shows how radically the use of starting pitchers has changed. His deteriorating arthritic elbow became a concern in 1964, which today would prompt a reduced workload to extend his career, but not then, He threw 335 innings with 27 complete games in 1965 and 323 innings with 27 complete games in 1966, finishing up with two of his greatest seasons. Then he retired, fearing his arm would fall off.

Dmjn53
4 years ago

Don’t tell that to sports talk radio callers. According to them pitchers didn’t get hurt in the good old’ days. It’s only the soft, babied pitchers of today

Brian
4 years ago

An anniversary I’ll celebrate thankfully.

deb81162
4 years ago

I fully get that everyone has Brooks as the best fielding 3B of all time. But his offensive numbers are that of an average to poor hitting 2B. A .723 career OPS is poor. He Avg. 15 HR per year, with only 1 year over 25 HR’s. If it wasn’t for his longevity and that MVP performance in the 1970 World Series, I say he isn’t even a HOF player. Outside that 1970 WS, he hit .177 in the WS. Nothing like getting a boost of worth and notoriety from the TV, when everyone watched the WS back in 1970. Year in and year out, Ron Santo was a much better player, but he never played on a WS winning team and isn’t in the same breath as Brooks to most people.

jazzpawMember since 2020
4 years ago

Reading your wonderful column is as much a tradition for me on Sunday morning as reading the NY Times with coffee and jazz. You delve into all the reasons – both traditional and the beloved eccentric – why we love the game. Many thanks and bravo, sir.

Timothy Wynne
4 years ago

Always a great read. Congrats on 8 years and keep up the great work. Definitely a must-read.