Syndergaard, Gray Top Extension Candidates Among Pitchers

Last spring, for the first time in a decade, maybe more, no pre-arbitration pitchers signed a contract extension taking away multiple free-agent seasons. There were a few decent candidates in Jacob deGrom, Sonny Gray, and Carlos Martinez, the last of whom just signed a contract extension of his own earlier this winter. None of those players signed last spring, however, and it’s a possible indicator of a chilling effect on these types of extensions. The lack of deals isn’t due to a lack of candidates, though. In fact, a few of the best pitchers in baseball might be prime for long-term extensions.

When attempting to characterize the recent history of such deals, it’s difficult to say what’s a trend and what’s a random event because only two to five players sign extensions of this sort every year. The recent drought might be a product of players and agents beginning to recognize how much clubs were benefiting from signing extensions with younger players. It’s possible, on the other hand, that teams were less likely to dole out guarantees when the outcome of the CBA was in doubt. When Madison Bumgarner signed his extension right as the 2012 season was starting, he was one of five young pitchers to do so. When Chris Sale signed his ahead of the 2013 season, he was the only one. Sale and Bumgarner’s contracts have proved to be two of the bigger bargains in the majors.

When the White Sox traded Chris Sale to the Red Sox for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz, they weren’t just trading Chris Sale. The White Sox were also trading Chris Sale’s contract, which included a $12 million salary for 2017 and options for 2018 and 2019 totaling $26 million. If Sale hadn’t signed that contract, he would have been a free agent this winter and received $200 million. San Francisco has no interest in trading Madison Bumgarner — who would have also been a free agent this winter — while they’re contending, so his value to the Giants is greater as a player on the field than in a trade. His contract is similar to Sale’s and so favorable that it had some discussing whether the team should negotiate a contract extension out of fairness, which does have some precedent.

Whether players have seen those contracts and been reluctant to sign at a hugely discounted rate or teams have looked at the rate of surgery and ineffectiveness among pitchers and shied away from extensions is hard to say. Over the last three years, there have been just seven contract extensions for pre-arbitration pitchers, including one for a reliever and another that guaranteed just $12.5 million.

The Sean Doolittle contract was signed, in part, so that the A’s could transition Doolittle to closer without risking the higher salaries that relievers with saves tend to get during the arbitration process. Otherwise, the A’s might have been compelled to leave Doolittle in a setup role with the intent of of saving significant amounts of money, even if the role was slightly suboptimal. As the numbers show, Perez had done very little at the time of his extension, and the Rays really jumped ahead by signing Chris Archer to a contract before he even reached a full year of service time. Quintana’s deal is a big bargain, Teheran’s deal is working out well for Atlanta. Sadly, we won’t get to see Yordano Ventura continue pitching for the Royals after his tragic accident.

Below are eight current pitchers who’ve recorded at least two years of service time and might jump at the chance of a little long-term security.

It probably isn’t a really great sign that the WAR leader above is a reliever. Relievers generally don’t make great long-term investments, especially if a team can go year to year, even with the high arbitration rates for saves. Let’s take the same list and look at just last season.

Aaron Sanchez seems like the ideal candidate for an extension after his breakout 2016 season; however, his agent is Scott Boras, which makes such a deal unlikely. Robbie Ray is a player the Arizona Diamondbacks should look to secure long term. His ERA is ugly, but he had a very high .352 BABIP and 15.5% HR/FB rate, which likely inflated that ERA above what we can expect going forward. He’s 25 years old, he struck out 28% of batters last season, and projections say he’ll be better this year than last. The rest of the group is solid, and a case could be made either way regarding a long-term deal.

There’s a short, but great ,list of players who are likely to head to arbitration as Super-2 players at the end of this season.

While the Mets might be unable to sign Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom long term (although a deal still might be possible with the latter), getting Noah Syndergaard to sign would more than make up for it. After this season, Syndergaard will make millions in arbitration. Given the fickle nature of pitching, the Mets might be able to take advantage with some long-term security. Rodon is another Boras client and also signed $6 million-plus draft bonus fewer than three years ago, so another Sale/Quintana deal seems unlikely with Rodon. McCullers has some health-related questions, so the Astros might be more comfortable going year to year.

We have one more group of players. Among the pitchers in the first chart from the beginning of this piece, all but Corey Kluber signed with less than two years of service time. Signing pitchers to a deal when a team still has their services for five more years can be risky, but those extra years can be incredibly valuable. Here are a few more pitchers at whom teams should take a look this spring.

If the Rockies actually find a pitcher who seems capable of excelling in the altitude of Colorado, it seems like a good idea to keep him around as long as possible. Gray did receive nearly $5 million when he was drafted four years ago, so he should be okay for money, but a $30-plus million guarantee might get him to consider delaying free agency by a bit, especially given the difficult conditions under which he’s pitching. The Mets could look to sign a deal for one of their other young pitchers in Steve Matz ,while the Phillies have a ton of money and not much to do with it just yet, so getting a young starter or two locked in wouldn’t be the worst idea. If the Orioles or Tigers believe that Dylan Bundy or Daniel Norris, respectively, have broken out, they might be decent targets. After getting shut out last year, we will see if we can’t get a little more activity this spring.