Archive for Adam Dunn

While the upcoming Free Agent crop isn’t the deepest in recent memory, there are a few sexy names at the top of the list. One of those names is of course Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder. Looking at his stats, we see a player who has accumulated 15.3 WAR over the last three seasons and is a perennial threat to launch 40 home runs and get on base over 40% of the time. However, due to his less than slim body type, it is not prudent to assume that he will age like most other Major League players.

In order to attempt to predict what Fielder will do over the life of his next contract, we should compare him to players with similar body types. Jeff Zimmerman has put together a list of 205 players who weigh more than 3.25 lbs per inch of height in order to construct an aging curve. To put that in perspective, a 6’0″ tall player would have to weigh a minimum of 234 lbs in order to be included in the sample.

Below is a graph that shows the aging curve of the heavy players we identified, and the curve for average sized players. Across the x-axis is age, and the y-axis runs (batting, positional, UZR), with 0 being the peak year. The y-axis shows how many runs below the peak year they are at a given age.

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Adam Dunn has been one of the most consistent players in baseball during the past eight seasons. King of the three true outcomes, Dunn could be counted on to post high walk and strikeout rates, and regularly knock the ball out of the yard. From 2004 to 2010, his raw home run totals were eerily consistent: 46, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38, 38. Now? Well, that level of consistency is unlikely to be replicated, since he’s mired in an epic slump, the likes of which he’s never experienced in his career.

Through 66 games and 275 plate appearances, Dunn is hitting a measly .173/.308/.316. His walk rate is in line with his career mark — and his OBP is still high relative to his batting average — but the slash line components sandwiching that rate are downright miserable. Given his propensity to strike out, Dunn never has been known for posting high batting averages. But these days, he’s whiffing at an otherworldly level.

While his batting average on balls in play is low at .262, this isn’t a case of a putrid success rate suppressing otherwise decent numbers. He’s struggling to make contact, and he’s not faring all that well when he does connect.

Entering the season, there were three or four sure things in baseball. Dunn posting a .240+ ISO was one of them.* At .143, though, he’s 122 points below his .265 career average. And while 275 plate appearances is still a small sample, we’re deep enough into the season to start wondering whether he’ll go back to the old Adam Dunn.

While my colleagues have attempted to determine the root cause of his issues, I’m more curious as to how frequently someone has cratered in this fashion.

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Paul Konerko is sitting at 381 home runs. The 35-year-old has averaged 32 homers per season in his last six, and he looks to be on pace for 30 to 35 more this year. Erring on the conservative side, let’s say he finishes with 30 dingers — 14 more than his current total. He would finish the 2011 season with 395 career home runs. He has two years remaining on his contract, and as long as he continues to hit like this, he should have no problem DH’ing for another few seasons after that.

Is it far-fetched to think that Konerko couldn’t average at least 21 homers from 2012 to 2016? Because with that average, he’d reach the 500-home-run milestone.

Along with achieving 3,000 hits, or winning 300 games as a pitcher, getting to 500 home runs — insert generic PED disclaimer here — tends to trigger automatic election to the Baseball Hall of Fame. But as Chris Cwik covered earlier this week, Konerko is obviously not a Hall-of-Fame player. Even if he joins the 500-home-run club, he’s unlikely to garner much HoF support, which is interesting because it would mean the milestone isn’t what it used to be.

With that idea, let’s discuss other players who might buck the milestone trend. These players would have achieved grand milestones almost under the radar, and would be considered longshots for the hall of fame despite their accomplishments.

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So the trade deadline came and went this past weekend, and in that time Adam Dunn remained a Washington National. The discussion about whether or not this move in and of itself was wise has been had at length, with most people comparing it to when the Nats didn’t trade Alfonso Soriano during the 2006 season. With Soriano, this move seems to have worked out. Washington used the draft picks from the Cubs, who signed Soriano to a long-term deal, to select pitchers Josh Smoker and Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman, who is coming off an injury that has prevented him from pitching thus far in 2010, was great in his rookie ’09 season with a 3.39 xFIP in ~91 innings. At twenty-one years old, Josh Smoker has stagnated with a rough season in A-ball. Still, that’s probably around what you’d expect to get from a few months of Soriano at the trade deadline.

However, the results don’t justify the process, and Adam Dunn isn’t Alfonso Soriano. The trade market was hugely underwhelming this year, and Dunn seemed to be the sexiest name on the block. Our own Matt Klaassen looked at Dunn’s value a few weeks ago:

ZiPS Rest-of-Season projections see Dunn as about a +18 hitter over the remainder of the season; let’s call him 2 WAR overall for the rest of 2010. He is probably owed between five and six million dollars for the rest of his contract, so unless Washington eats a substantial portion of his contract, there’s probably only three million dollars worth of projected surplus here — not bad, but probably not worth much more than a decent “C” prospect or two with some upside. However, because Dunn will likely be a Type A free agent in the offseason, draft pick compensation for the team offering him arbitration (assuming he turns it down) bumps the total projected surplus up to around nine million dollars, which means “B” prospects (plus filler) should definitely be in play.

According to Mike Rizzo, the offers for Dunn were just entirely below what they perceived his value to be. So there are a few outcomes that could come out of Washington’s passivity:

1) Dunn gets through waivers and gets traded to a contender (most likely San Francisco)

This one is possible, and Buster Olney thinks it can happen, but why would Mike Rizzo limit his trading pool, essentially lowering his expected returned value, by doing this? Also, the Nationals seemed to have made a strong PR move by keeping their franchise position player, making a potential waiver deal more unlikely.

2) The Nationals offer Dunn arbitration and he accepts it

This one would be bad. Baseball arbitrators like homers, RBI, and hometown guys a lot more than they like WAR, positional scarcity, or anything else of the ilk. Dunn could be looking at a big payday if he goes to arbitration, and Washington would probably be looking at getting a negative ROI via the contract.

3) The Nationals offer Dunn arbitration and he rejects it, signing elsewhere

This seems to be what the Nationals are hoping for (again similar to the Soriano situation). With Strasburg and Bryce Harper, the Nats are poised to build a strong team in the near future, and good prospects can either surround those guys later on or become trade bait for MLB-ready players. Still, a late first round draft pick can fizzle out before you can say “Harrisburg.”

4) The Nationals re-sign Dunn either during the rest of the season or during the offseason

If this happens during the latter timeframe then the Nats will be competing with the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox, ballclubs with much bigger payrolls. If it happens during the season, then Washington is probably overpaying considering people have said Dunn will not give a home discount and wants to test the free agent waters.

Mike Rizzo made a strong stand for the Nationals franchise by not trading Adam Dunn. However, the question still remains if Washington is better off for it.

Today is deadline day, and as Chris Needham points out so well, the Nationals have been quiet. Too quiet.

Apparently the Nats are so loaded with talent and potential for the coming years that they don’t need to make a change. At least that’s how you could read it considering all the moves they haven’t made and how two-thirds of the league’s players have seemingly changed hands.

The Nationals are on their way to losing well over 100 games this season and even the most die-hard idealist isn’t expecting them contend anytime soon. Their attendance is one of the worst in baseball despite their nifty new facilities. Let’s face it; the team may as well be back in Canada for all Washington fans care at the moment. They have one thing in the world to look forward to as fans: Signing Stephen Strasburg. So why are the Nats not in full blown fire-sale mode, a la Pittsburgh? They have some assets.

Needham pointed out a few, including Nick Johnson and Josh Willingham. Johnson is healthy this season and still gets on base at a high clip. ZiPS projects Johnson to produce a robust .380 wOBA the rest of the season. He’s going to be a Type B free agent, meaning you can buy Nick Johnson and he comes with the added bonus of a draft pick. Not much not to like.

Josh Willingham is quietly having a fantastic season, putting together a .300/.410/.586 line. Bear in mind his batting average is nearly thirty points higher than his career standard, but Willingham has been a consistently productive hitter, with a career .372 wOBA. He picked a great time to have a career year, as he’ll be arbitration eligible for the second time this off-season, making him due for a raise.

But what about Adam Dunn? Why is no one talking about him? The Prophet of the Three True Outcomes Cult is putting together yet another strong offensive season, posting a .407 wOBA. Granted, he’s been downright grisly in left field (-12) UZR, but there has to be a contending team out there with a 1B/DH on their wish list. Matt Holliday, Dunn is not, but he’d bring comparable offensive production, just keep the Big Donkey away from the outfield.

The only stumbling block I can see that would deter a team from trading for Dunn is that he has 1 year, $12 million left on his contract after the season. While that might not be ideal for some buyers, in view of the fact that he’ll most likely be a 3-4 win player next year, that’s really not all that exorbitant.

The Nationals are a terrible team with a rather weak farm system. They need all the extra dough they can scrape up just to sign Strasburg, and more talent than the Zimmerman(n)s and Derek Norris to build around their future ace. It’s a quarter to midnight, Mr. Rizzo. Do the team’s future GM a favor and don’t just keep his seat warm. Give him or her a head start at rebuilding this mess.

updated: I stand corrected, Johnson is just short of Type B status. He’s still a decent trading chip, though.

Following the 2007 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers seemingly had their outfield in order. Juan Pierre had signed a 5-yr/$55 mil deal prior to the season and was not about to sit on the bench. Flanking him would be prospects Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Ned Colletti then proceeded to sign Andruw Jones to a 2-yr/$36.2 mil contract, creating a logjam in the outfield and relegating someone to the bench in the process. With all of the money invested in Jones and Pierre, the odd man out had to come from Ethier and Kemp.

Jones produced a .234 wOBA and, despite a +3.7 UZR rating in centerfield, proving his worth to be -0.4 wins. He missed most of the season, opening up a spot for all three of Pierre, Ethier, and Kemp.

Manny Ramirez soon joined the team, once again creating a surplus of outfielders. Fans screamed for Pierre to sit on the bench and Ethier to receive plenty of playing time. Though Joe Torre did not immediately react to these please, he soon found it too difficult of a task to keep Ethier out of the lineup. Pierre became disgruntled, but Kemp and Ethier needed to play every day, and you do not acquire Manny Ramirez to sit on the bench.

Jones may have missed a good portion of the 2008 season, but he is still technically under contract. Pierre also has three more years remaining. Kemp and Ethier are pretty much guaranteed starting jobs next season, but who takes over the remaining outfield spot?

Manny Ramirez does not appear to be heading for as big a payday as he expected, meaning the initial 2-yr/$45 mil offer that the Dodgers withdrew may make the most sense. Should he re-sign with the Dodgers, Colletti will have the outfield that helped propel the team into the playoffs returning n tact. He will also have around $30 mil in outfielders sitting on the bench/not living up to their paycheck.

The most recent reports have Jones heading to the Mets. Unless the Dodgers are willing to take on a bad contract like the one belonging to Luis Castillo (of whom they have no interest), Colletti will have to pay the large majority of Jones’ salary. If Ramirez rejoins the team and Jones is dealt, then Juan Pierre may not be happy, but you could do much worse in the fourth outfielder department. The big issue there is that he will earn plenty of money to make contributions that do not necessarily merit that fee.

An even newer report has Adam Dunn talking to the Dodgers. I cannot imagine Colletti would sign both Dunn and Ramirez, meaning he will go for either one or the other. Both are all-hit/no-field corner outfielders. Their 2009 projections call for +3.5 wins for Manny and around +2.8 wins for Dunn. Dunn is several years younger than Ramirez and will cost less, as well. From an owner’s perspective, however, ManRam puts butts in the seats, and Dunn does not.

Regardless, Pierre could be very useful as a pinch-runner who stays in the game as a defensive replacement, occasionally garnering starts. For most Dodgers fans, it seems the ideal solution is to cut ties with both Pierre and Jones while bringing back Ramirez to play left-field. The Jones part of that solution may come to fruition very soon, but I would fully expect to see Pierre in Dodger-blue as a fourth outfielder come Spring Training 2009. Either way, Colletti definitely loves him some outfielders, as four are currently under contract already and two more have been heavily rumored to be signed.

This offseason has been particularly interesting, as seven, count them, seven, corner outfielders with similar skillsets hit the open market. Bobby Abreu, Garrett Anderson, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Raul Ibanez and Manny Ramirez all became free agents, all looking to hit a big payday. To date, only Ibanez has signed, and that deal has been largely lampooned.

With a surplus at the position, the market price has seemingly been driven down. After all, why pay an exorbitant fee for Burrell if Abreu could be had for slightly less? Or, replace either of those two names with any of the aforementioned others and the rhetorical question still works. Anderson is a better fielder than hitter, but the remaining players can all be classified as good-hitting, bad-fielding players.

If we want to include Anderson in the mix, this classification can be adjusted to show that these seven players are all one-dimensional.

Going along with the idea of positional adjustments that Dave has written so much about this week, I thought it would be interesting to show the production levels and dollar valuations for everyone sans-Ibanez at both the corner outfield position and designated hitter spot.

Before examining the results, let it be known that the positional adjustments are -7.5 runs per 162 games for LF, and -17.5 runs per 162 games for DH. Short of 162 games, these are prorated. The value above replacement is +20 runs per 600 PA, prorated below that number. Here are the results if they signed on as a leftfielder:

Name        PA/GP    wRAA   UZR    Pos.   Adj.  WAR
Abreu      600/159   16.0  -14.0   20.0  -7.4   +1.46
Anderson   540/140   -6.0    5.0   18.0  -6.5   +1.05
Burrell    600/157   19.0  -12.0   20.0  -7.4   +1.97
Dunn       600/159   23.0  -12.0   20.0  -7.4   +2.36
Griffey    550/130    2.0  -13.0   18.0  -6.0   +0.10
Ramirez    580/150   35.0  -12.0   19.0  -6.9   +3.51

As a corner outfielder, Ramirez is still the cream of the crop, with Dunn coming in over one win less valuable. Griffey is essentially the definition of a replacement player, and the rest project as below average players. In Burrell’s case, he projects as an average player next year, but at his age, a sharper decline isn’t out of the question. How about if they were to serve as designated hitters instead of outfielders?

To convert to designated hitters, we prorate the -17.5 positional adjustment per 162 games and get rid of the UZR projections. This bumps up the value of Burrell, Abreu, Dunn, Manny, and Griffey. Anderson, who projects to be below average offensively, loses value.

Burrell shifts from +1.97 to +2.20. Abreu from +1.46 to +1.88. Dunn from +2.36 to +2.58. Manny from +3.51 to +3.70. And Griffey from +0.10 to +0.60. Anderson digresses from +1.05 to -0.30, becoming a below replacement level player if he signs as a designated hitter. Translated to dollars, here are the discrepancies between being a LF and DH:

Name       LF WAR   LF FMV    DH WAR    DH FMV
Abreu      +1.46    $7.30     +1.88     $9.40
Anderson   +1.05    $5.20     -0.30     $0.40
Burrell    +1.97    $9.85     +2.20    $11.00
Dunn       +2.36   $11.80     +2.58    $12.90
Griffey    +0.10    $0.50     +0.60     $3.00
Ramirez    +3.51   $17.55     +3.70    $18.50

These results suggest that everyone but Anderson would better serve their team as a designated hitter than leftfielder. For teams, perhaps the most financially interesting dilemma is how much to offer these players given how many of them are on the market. If teams can sign these players for their leftfield fair market value and play them at DH, they will get a steal of sorts. But, if the Ibanez signing is a sign of things to come, teams still do not understand the value of defense.

Still, the calendar year is almost over and these six players are yet to find new homes. A couple may get the paydays initially sought, but others may have to substantially lower their requests to garner a full year’s worth of playing time.

Between a few errands yesterday, I happened to catch one of those ESPN baseball analysis segments in which a series of supposedly interesting questions are analyzed from all angles until the viewer walks away with an extreme understanding of the subject. Or maybe the opposite. I can’t remember. Anyways, the analyst was Chris Singleton, whom I actually feel has the best presence on-screen and is the smoothest of the bunch, generally offering good insights. Something he mentioned on this particular segment, however, made me cringe.

They were showing a highlight of the DBacks-Rockies game in which Adam Dunn grounded out to end the game in a clutch spot. Singleton started by mentioning how tough of a plate appearance it was with so much at stake and Brian Fuentes—who hides the ball very well—on the mound. So far so good. But when Chris got into his overall evaluation of Dunn, despite presenting the information in a smooth manner, it came off as nothing more than generic announcer-talk that exhibited next to no knowledge of what he was discussing.

To paraphrase, he essentially said that while Dunn will hit homers he will also strike out quite a bit… and because of the strikeouts he’ll post low on base and slugging percentages.

What!? Seriously?

So, does that mean that Hanley Ramirez is posting low on base and slugging percentages? As Dave showed a couple of days ago, these players have virtually identical OBP and SLG numbers over the last two years. Why would Singleton say this? If he meant to say that, because Dunn strikes out so much it prevents him from getting more extra base hits and more opportunities at reaching base, then it would make at least some sense… except that would mean Dunn would be a completely different player. Basically, there really is no justifiable reason to make this comment other than having no idea what you are talking about.

His OBP is virtually the same as Chase Utley, who by all accounts gets on base at a very decent clip. His SLG is higher than David Wright’s and virtually the same as the aforementioned Ramirez as well as Prince Fielder. In fact, Dunn and Fielder have very similar OBP and SLG numbers despite Prince’s forty point advantage in batting average. If Dunn was striking out a ton and producing a .230/.320/.430 slash line I might be able to understand Singleton’s point of view, but his actual line is .234/.373/.525.

His OBP and SLG may be lower than his counts last year or a few years ago, but they are not low.

Adam Dunn of the Reds is not too complicated of a player to figure out: he walks a lot, strikes out a lot, and hits home runs. In his eighth big league season Dunn has a career walk rate of 17%, a career strikeout rate of 32.7%, and hits a home run about once every 14 at bats. In fact, from 2004 until yesterday, Dunn’s 189 home runs ranks first in the National League and third overall to Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. His 504 walks ranks first regardless of league as do his 816 strikeouts; in fact, second place in punchouts is Jason Bay with 639, about 180 behind. For anyone confused, Ryan Howard ranks third in this category primarily because he wasn’t a full-time regular in 2004-05.

This year has been essentially the same for Dunn as he finds himself atop the leaderboard in walks and in the top five in both strikeouts and home runs. Still, one major difference is his current .227 batting average. Though I am strongly against using batting average as any type of end-all evaluative barometer, his low percentage of hits in at bats has prevented his already high OBP and SLG from vastly increasing.

His BABIP, which over the course of his career comes out to .291, currently rests at just .248. The only other season in which he posted a sub-.250 BABIP was in 2003, when he still walked, struck out, and homered quite a bit but managed to produce a .215/.354/.465 slash line. While that season resulted in an .819 OPS his OBP and SLG have combined to provide a .902 OPS as of right now.

This got me thinking how many people have posted sub-.230 batting averages while simultaneously producing OPS counts of .900 or higher. Querying for all players satisfying these parameters while amassing 400 or more plate appearances, I found… nobody. I couldn’t find any player that has ever hit .230 or lower with an OPS .900 or higher. Though it isn’t likely Dunn will finish the season with a batting average that low, especially when considering his BABIP has been much higher in the near past, if he does he will end up literally in a league of his own.

Since .900 is a high OPS for years past I modified the search to give me anyone with a sub-.230 batting average and OPS+ of 130 or higher—based on Dunn’s current number—while totaling at least 400 plate appearances. This produced three results, yet all belonged to the same player: Gene Tenace. In 1974, Tenace had a .211 BA/130 OPS+; in 1978, a .224 BA/134 OPS+; and in 1980, a .222 BA/137 OPS+.

Again modifying the search to include those with sub-.230 BAs and an OBP of at least .380, four results and three names surfaced; Tenace in both 1978 and 1980, Wes Westrum’s 1951 season of .219 BA/.400 OBP, and Ray Cullenbine’s 1947 season of .224 BA/.401 OBP.

Just Tenace’s 1978 season and Cullenbine’s 1947 season achieved this “feat” with at least 500 PAs, and only Cullenbine did so with 600+ PAs. Essentially, assuming Dunn doesn’t get hurt, it is very unlikely this BA/OBP or BA/OPS+ combo will continue. Based on his past BABIP results compared to this year it is more likely the BA will increase, in turn meaning his OBP and SLG will look even gaudier. I’m not sure if teams are in serious, serious discussions regarding his services or not, but they should be… even if he isn’t really passionate about the game.