Yesterday, the Cubs traded superfluous lefty starter Tom Gorzelanny to the Nationals for two fringe prospects. Though the Nationals don’t look like a competitor in a tough National League East in the upcoming season, the move, coupled with other moves by the team, does seem to suggest that there’s a near-term destination in mind for the team in our nation’s capital.
The Washington Nationals finished 2009 with 103 losses. Suffice to say, they were not a good team. Much of the blame can be placed upon the shoulders of the pitching staff. According to StatCorner’s version of tRA, the starting rotation alone was nearly 100 runs below average. Our own measure of runs above replacement using FIP has the Nationals at roughly 62 runs below average.
John Lannan was the only pitcher for the Nationals to accrue over 110 innings pitched this year. Once again, Lannan’s results defied advanced pitching statistics. For the second straight year, Lannan posted an ERA+ over 110 despite a K/BB well below 2.00. With his inability to strike batters out, Lannan has posted FIPs nearly a run higher than his ERA.
Lannan’s best quality as pitcher is his ability to induce ground balls. According to StatCorner, 41.6% of plate appearances against Lannan resulted in ground balls, against a league average of 31.8%. However, despite the fact that tRA accounts for batted ball profiles in its calculation, Lannan’s tRA+ was under 90 for the second straight year.
Then why are Lannan’s results so much better than the advanced statistics suggest? Let’s take a look at what’s happening with Lannan’s batted balls, compared to the league. Shown below is Lannan’s BABIP splits compared to the NL average for 2009. League averages have remained relatively constant (within .005) over the last two years.
This trend of low BABIPs on every split is similar for his entire career – slightly lower BABIP on ground balls, slightly higher on FB/LD. His defense in 2008 was slightly above average at +9 UZR, and in 2009 it was poor at -27 UZR, and yet the BABIPs remained very similar. If it’s not defense, what is the cause of Lannan’s success in this extremely variable category? This is where I believe that Hit F/X data can really come in handy – is Lannan actually allowing weaker balls in play? Is he merely lucky with the spray angles of balls hit in play against him? Is there something else I’m not taking into account here?
Two seasons is not enough of a sample to say that Lannan has some sort of special talent regarding balls in play. The question that needs to be answered here is whether or not there’s something repeatable about the apparently poor quality of balls put in play against Lannan. If it is repeatable, Lannan could be an incredibly valuable asset going forward, as he doesn’t reach arbitration until 2011. If it’s not repeatable, then the Nationals are looking at yet another back of the rotation starter with a minimal impact at the major league level. It’s not often that pitchers with K/BB ratios as low as Lannan’s succeed. As the sample size grows, 2010 will be a very interesting year for both the Nationals and Lannan.
Over the last week, we’ve been looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the National League East division, which was fairly barren in terms of rookies in 2008 although the Braves organization had its fair share of newbies.
In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East and NL Central.
Perhaps buoyed by the mass of ever-present media, fielder Daniel Murphy entered 2009 with quite a bit of hype after just 188 at-bats during the ’08 season. Last year, he hit .313/.397/.473 with rates of 12.1 BB% and 21.4 K%. Murphy hit just two homers (.160 ISO) and did not successfully steal a base in two attempts. Perhaps the biggest negative with the left-handed hitter is his lack of position. Originally an infielder, Murphy’s penchant for errors led to a move to the outfield, where he spent all of 2008 while in the Majors. This season, he’s split his time between left field and first base. His 2009 line of .250/.324/.362 is below average for both positions, as is his ISO at .112.
Martin Prado bounced between the Majors and triple-A during both the 2006 and 2007 seasons. He spent the majority of the 2008 season with Atlanta and had an above-average offensive season for a utility player by hitting .320/.377/.461 with 18 doubles and three steals in 228 at-bats. His rates were also pretty good at 8.4 BB% and 12.7 K%. This season, the infielder is hitting .277/.344/.445 with 11 doubles and no steals in 119 at-bats. Both his plate rates have improved by a percent or two. The downside, much like with Murphy above, is that Prado has been used mostly at a position that traditionally produces power (third base and first base). If he spent more time at second base – or shortstop – he would have greater value to the Braves, assuming he can play at least average defense at those positions.
Desperate for some outfield help in 2008, the Braves organization ran through a number of outfielders with “fourth outfielder” labels hovering over them and not one of the three players has done much to dispute that impending title. Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones have all seen their playing time with the Braves decrease, even though the club still needs outfield depth. In fact, Anderson was traded out of the organization to Detroit earlier this year. Blanco showed the ability to get on base last season but he did it with almost no power. The 25-year-old outfielder hit .251/.366/.309 with 19 extra base hits and 13 steals in 430 at-bats. This season, he’s spent the majority of the year in triple-A. Jones hit .267/.312/.397 with one homer and a single steal in 116 at-bats. His rates of 5.7 BB% and 24.1 K% suggested more work needed to be done. Like Blanco, Jones has spent most of 2009 in triple-A.
Stolen from the Tigers in a trade after the 2007 season, right-hander Jair Jurrjens has been a very good pitcher for the Braves. Jurrjens posted a 3.68 ERA (3.59 FIP) in 2008 with 188 hits allowed in 188.1 innings of work. He also had a walk rate of 3.35 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.64 K/9. His ground-ball rate was 51.2%. This season, Jurrjens has allowed 81 hits in 87.1 innings of work, along with an ERA of 2.89 (3.52 FIP). His rates are very similar, although his ground-ball percentage has dropped to just 39.5%.
Reliever Manny Acosta allowed 48 hits in 53.0 IP but posted disappointing rates of 4.42 BB/9 and 5.26 K/9. He’s pitching in just nine MLB games in 2009 with eight hits allowed in 11.2 innings. He’s also shown similar rates, which is disappointing considering his fastball averages out at 93 mph.
Emilio Bonifacio had a very nice first month of the 2009 season, but that has been sandwiched by about six months worth of below-average play. Based on his offensive skill set, the 24-year-old infielder is best suited to play second base, but he’s spent the majority of the 2009 season at third base, where he has hit .241/.288/.292, which is well-below-average for a third base (and even for a second baseman). He’s also stolen just 12 bases in 17 attempts and has a walk rate of 6.5 BB%. Last year, Bonifacio hit .243/.296/.337 with seven steals in 11 attempts. Sadly, he’s not even a stellar defensive player.
John Baker, 28, toiled in the minors for seven seasons before earning his shot in 2008 and he hit .299/.392/.447 with five homers in 197 at-bats. The catcher also showed OK patience at the plate with a walk rate of 13.2 BB%. This season, Baker has struggled to hit for average with a line of .245/.335/.411 and six homers in 163 at-bats. His ground-ball rate is probably a little high at 56.3% for a plodding catcher.
The ground-ball pitcher that is Chris Volstad had a very nice debut season in 2008. The right-hander quieted the critics who said he was not ready by posting a 2.88 ERA (3.82 FIP) with 76 hits in 84.1 innings of work. He posted a walk rate of 3.84 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.55 K/9 but allowed just three homers (0.32 HR/9). It’s the missing quality sinker that has hurt Volstad in 2009. He’s given up 88 hits in 89.1 innings, including 14 long balls (1.41 HR/9).
Southpaw John Lannan, 24, doesn’t get a lot of love even though he keeps putting up the results – and for a bad team. He had a 3.91 ERA (4.79 FIP) while allowing 172 hits in 182 innings in 2008. The left-hander also had rates of 3.56 BB/9 and 5.79, so he puts the ball in play a lot. In 2009, Lannan has a 3.38 ERA (5.09 FIP) with 82 hits allowed in 85.1 innings. His walk rate is very similar, but the strikeout has dropped to 4.43 BB/9.
Collin Balester, 23, has to be pretty disappointed. The right-hander made 15 starts in 2008 and allowed 92 hits in 80 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.15 BB/9 and 5.63 K/9. Like Lannan, Balester also struggled with home runs and he allowed 12 homers (1.35 HR/9). This season, he’s made all 14 of his starts in triple-A, where he has a 4.00 ERA.
Steven Shell and Charlie Manning both pitched a good chunk of innings for the club in 2008, but neither player has seen much MLB playing time in 2008. The better of the two pitchers, Shell is a former Angels prospect, posted a 2.16 ERA in exactly 50 innings. He also had a 7.38 K/9 rate. In 2009, though, the right-hander fell apart. He appeared in four games for the Nationals before moving on to the Seattle organization, where he has a 7.90 ERA in 12 games. Manning appeared in 57 games in 2008 with an ERA of 5.17. He has yet to pitch in the Majors in ’09.
The Philadelphia Phillies organization did not distribute significant playing time to any rookies in 2008.
The Graduate: John Lannan | Born: September 1984 | Left-Handed Pitcher
A 2005 11th round pick, John Lannan has made the Nationals’ scouting department look good. He is not a long-term No. 1 or 2 starter, but Lannan should be a reliable innings-eater. He allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in 2008, but did not strike out a ton of batters (5.79) and walked a few too many (3.56 BB/9), so there is room for improvement. He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground (53.6%) but allows his fair share of gopher balls (1.14 HR/9).
The Riser: Jordan Zimmermann | Born: May 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher
A second rounder from the 2007 draft, Jordan Zimmermann has posted solid numbers in the minors and reached Double-A in his first full pro season. In Double-A, he posted rates of 7.51 H/9, 3.29 BB/9, and 8.69 K/9. Zimmermann could see Washington in 2009. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, curveball and developing change-up.
The Tumbler: Ross Detwiler | Born: March 1986 | Left-Handed Pitcher
After ending 2007 with a brief taste of the Major Leagues, Ross Detwiler struggled at High-A ball in 2008. The former No. 1 pick had difficulty missing bats (10.16 H/9) and walked too many batters as well (4.14 BB/9). He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, though, with a homer rate of 0.58 HR/9. He may begin 2009 back in the Florida State League.
The ’08 Draft Pick: Adrian Nieto | Born: November 1989 | Catcher
The Nationals may have lost out on first round pick Aaron Crow in 2008, but it allowed them to sign a couple of prep sleepers away from college commitments, including Adrian Nieto and J.P. Ramirez. Nieto has been a long-time teammate of Royals’ 2008 first round pick Eric Hosmer. The young catcher appeared in only eight Rookie League games after signing but held his own and should return to short season ball in 2009 to continue to work on his defence.
The ’09 Sleeper: Derek Norris | Born: February 1989 | Catcher
The Nationals organization certainly has some interesting catchers in the low minors and 19-year-old Derek Norris is one of them. In his second pro season, Norris posted a line of .279/.434/.463 in 227 at-bats against a league consisting mainly of 21 and 22-year-old college players. He posted rates of 21.7 BB% and 24.7% with an ISO of .185. He’ll get his first taste of full-season ball in 2009.
Up Next: The Oakland Athletics
One of my favorite numbers to look at is the run support provided to a given pitcher. It’s nothing necessarily sustainable but provides solid supporting evidence when discussing the validity or merit of a starting pitcher’s statistics, namely his W-L record. For instance, many understand that W-L records are not necessarily indicative of performance quality–a guy can give up 2 or 3 runs in 8 innings and lose, or give up 5 runs in 5 innings, but receive 8 runs of support and win.
Interestingly enough, that example comes pretty close to replicating both ends of the run support spectrum. John Lannan, who Dave noted should be known for more than just injuring Chase Utley last year, is at the bottom, receiving just 22 total runs in his 14 starts. When extrapolated it comes to 2.39 RS/9, a full 0.39 runs ahead of closest “competitor” Paul Byrd. However, he has a 3.36 ERA and, including unearned runs, has a RA/9 of 3.47.
On the opposite end we have Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies. In 15 starts this season Kendrick has received 74 runs of support, or 8.50 RS/9. The next closest? Oliver Perez, whose 7.47 RS/9 is over a full run less.
It comes as no surprise then that Lannan is 4-8 and Kendrick is 6-3, even though the former appears to be pitching better than the latter.
Additionally, Kendrick is no stranger to run support either, as his 7.74 RS/9 last season would be atop the Fangraphs leaderboard if his 20 starts qualified for inclusion. So, in the last two years, Kendrick has made 34 starts and received 178 runs of support. In those 34 starts he has gone 199.1 innings while allowing 99 runs (earned or unearned). Since his mid-season callup in 2007 he has gone 16-7; his 4.47 RA/9 is more than erased by his 8.04 RS/9.
Maybe Lannan should talk to Kendrick about lending him some of those runs in order to boost his barometer.
If you don’t live in Washington D.C. and you actually know something about John Lannan, raise your hand. Don’t worry hands-in-your-lappers, you’re not alone. This nondescript lefty has snuck up on the world, and outside of the Nationals season ticket holders and his immediate family, he’s still an unknown. But, as long as Lannan continues to be overlooked, the world will continue to miss out on one of the more underrated youngsters around.
Lannan was an 11th round pick by the Nationals in the 2005 draft out of noted baseball powerhouse Siena College. At 6’5, he’s in the John Halama school of tall guys who look like they should throw harder than they do. His below average velocity and no real out pitch caused him to be seen as a longshot to make the majors, which is why Washington was able to select him 324th overall three years ago.
He didn’t exactly light the minor leagues on fire, either. His debut in Vermont was mediocre at best, as he po6sted 5.34 ERA with 31 walks and 41 strikeouts in 63 innings of work. Generally, guys who can’t get swings and misses in short season leagues don’t make it to the majors. However, he moved up to Savannah, the Nationals full season affiliate in the South Atlantic League, in 2001, and made some strides. He struck out 114 batters in 138 innings, but his command problems (54 walks and six hit batters) helped him give up 83 runs.
Heading into last season, he was still more organizational player than real prospect, but started to get better sink on his fastball and improved his command, allowing him to climb from high-A ball all the way to the majors in a single season. He earned the distinction of being the first player ejected from his ML debut last summer after hitting Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, breaking Utley’s wrist in the process.
But now, after his 6 IP/1 R performance against Houston last night, he sports a 3.40 ERA and 3.98 FIP, entrenching himself as a regular member of the Washington rotation and making himself memorable for reasons beyond injuring all-stars. How has this kid come from out of nowhere to become a viable major league starter?
Once again, the hidden goodness of ground balls. Lannan’s pounding the bottom of the zone with his mixture of pitches that includes a solid two-seam fastball that makes up in movement what it lacks in velocity. His slider, curve, change, and cut fastball help keep hitters off balance, and he mixes all five pitches well and keeps them down in the zone. His command still isn’t great, but when he misses, he misses down in the zone, which helps keep the ball in the yard.
His stuff is good enough to rack up an average strikeout rate, and as we’ve talked about before, the combination of some strikeouts and a lot of ground balls are a powerful force for any pitcher. He may have come out of nowhere, but he’s showing staying power. As long as he keeps that sinking fastball down in the zone, the Nationals will be quite happy to pencil Lannan into their rotation for the next several years.