Rick Porcello was really good in 2016 when he won the Cy Young award. He had a very strong 3.40 FIP, an even better 3.15 ERA, and was worth 5.1 WAR. The race was close that year, with Porcello narrowly edging out Justin Verlander. Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, and even Zach Britton all also had decent arguments for the award. Any one of the starters could have won, but Porcello got the nod in what was presumably his career year.

It’s early, but so far Porcello is putting those presumptions to the test. Through four games, Porcello has 23 strikeouts against just one walk with a fantastic 1.74 FIP and 1.40 ERA. He’s never pitched quite this well before.

Even during his 2016 campaign, Porcello never put together a stretch as good as the one of which he’s in the midst. The graph below shows rolling four-game stretches since Porcello came to Boston.

We are currently at the low mark for both ERA and FIP during Porcello’s tenure in Boston. As to why Porcello is on such a great run, we can start with the lack of home runs. Since joining the Red Sox, Porcello has never produced a four-game stretch without allowing a homer until now. He had a couple per year back in his extreme pitch-to-contact ground-balling days in Detroit, where the park suppressed homers, but he had no such streaks during his first three seasons with the Red Sox. Some of that can be chalked up to good fortune, of course: he is obviously going to give up a dinger at some point this season. In addition to keeping the ball in the yard, though, there’s also that 23:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

So what’s the difference? Is there even one?

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Rick Porcello throws a slider. He doesn’t throw it very often, but when he does, the results are typically disastrous. You might be able to work in a not-very-great pitch if everything else you had in your repertoire was overwhelming, but for the ground-balling Porcello, that’s just not the case.

But let me step back a moment. Rick Porcello is having a very Rick Porcello-like season, which, objectively, is just a wee bit better than your average starter. His 4.57 ERA is spot on with his career 4.55, his 3.82 FIP is the lowest of his career, and he’s striking out more batters than he has in his career with a 13.6% strikeout rate. Peachy.

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Today, we look at some young pitchers who made highly anticipated debuts last season but have as yet to eclipse the 30 ballot threshold in our Fan Projections: Neftali Feliz, Rick Porcello, and Chris Tillman.

Feliz pitched exclusively in relief for Texas after an early-August promotion, blowing away hitters with a 95.8 mph fastball.

Porcello is a ground-ball monster who’ll reach drinking age just in time for New Year’s.

Tillman came to Baltimore as part of the Bedard trade. He breezed through the minors but had a little bit more trouble in his major league debut.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Rick Porcello, RHP
The 20-year-old right-hander had an outstanding season based on his age and professional experience. He allowed a few too many hits and gave up his fair share of homers, but that’s nitpicking, really. Porcello showed good composure on the mound and produced a 54.2% ground-ball rate. His fastball averaged out at just 90.9 mph and he posted a strikeout rate of a mere 4.69 K/9, but Porcello has the ability to get strikeouts when he needs them. (Ask the Twins.) The sky is the limit for this kid who posted a 1.9 WAR before reaching the legal drinking age in the US.

The Riser: Luke Putkonen, RHP
Putkonen, a third round draft pick out of the University of North Carolina in ’07, had a solid season in double-A this past season. The right-hander allowed 148 hits in 149.1 innings of work, while showing solid control with a walk rate of 2.83 BB/9. He also posted a strikeout rate of 6.93 K/9. Impressively, Putkonen allowed just three homers all year (0.18 HR/9) while pitching in low-A. Although his fastball sits around 90 mph, the 23-year-old gets excellent sink on it and he allowed a ground-ball rate of 57%. He also has a slider, curveball and change-up. Why he spent the entire year in low-A ball at his age is beyond me. Putkonen could settle in as a back-of-the-rotation starter or as a solid reliever.

The Tumbler: Cale Iorg, SS
The Tigers gave Iorg a lot of money to sign for over-slot as a sixth round draft pick in 2007. The club has yet to see much of a return on its investment. The infielder reached double-A in ’09 but he hit just .222/.274/.336 in 491 at-bats. Iorg struck out 30.3% of the time, which is way, way too high for anyone… and especially a hitter with an ISO of .114. He shows some speed on the bases, but he was caught seven times in 20 attempts. Defensively, he makes his share of errors, but Iorg has solid range at shortstop.

The ’10 Sleeper: Melvin Mercedes, RHP
It’s no secret that the Tigers organization likes hard-throwing relievers and Mercedes is just one more in a long line. The right-hander made his North American debut in ’09 in rookie ball, and he flashed an 89-94 mph fastball and an intriguing slider. In 24.2 innings, the 19-year-old allowed just 19 hits and did not give up a homer. His ground-ball rate of 68.9% was awesome, but it was also a small sample size. On the downside, his control needs work as he posted a walk rate of 5.11 BB/9.

Bonus: Brandon Hamilton, RHP
Hamilton was highlighted as a possible breakout candidate during the ’08 minor league review of the system. Unfortunately, the right-hander had a rough year in low-A ball. The 7.09 ERA in 99.0 innings jumps out right away, but he was hurt by bad luck and poor defense; his FIP was 5.15. Hamilton needs to throw more strikes after posting a walk rate of 5.55 BB/9. He showcased an 88-92 mph fastball, a good curveball and a change-up. Hamilton was a supplemental first round draft pick out of an Alabama high school in ’07.

The Favorites:
1. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland
Anderson holds the narrow edge over Romero is K/9 with 7.25, good for 18th in the league for pitchers with more than 90 innings pitched. Anderson has the 12th lowest FIP in the AL at 3.91, six spots ahead of Bergesen. The southpaw also has the second lowest line-drive rate in the AL, four spots head of Porcello.

2. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas
Andrus and Brett Gardner are tied for 12th in the league in steals with 20. Among AL shortstops, Andrus leads in UZR and range factor.

3. Brad Bergesen, RHP, Baltimore
Bergesen is 12th in the league in BB/9 (90 IP+), five spots ahead of Anderson. He’s also 12th in the league in HR/9 at 0.80, five spots ahead of Niemann.

4. Gordon Beckham, 3B, Chicago
Beckham leads rookies in batting average (200 PA minimum) but is just 35th in the league. He also has the highest BABIP for rookies at .331, 26th in the league. Defensively, UZR doesn’t like Beckham, but he has shown good range.

5. Andrew Bailey, RHP, Oakland
Bailey is seventh in the AL in saves with 17 (40 IP+). He’s also eighth amongst all AL relievers in K/9 with a rate of 10.13. The right-hander is helped by a low .249 BABIP.

Watch Out For:
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore
He had a slow start to his MLB career, but this promising catcher is really playing well now… It remains to be seen, though, if he can catch up to all of the rookies above.

Nolan Reimold, LF, Baltimore
Reimold is tops in BB% at 11.5%, but that is good for just 34th in the league. No rookie is amongst the top 35 hitters in OPS, ISO or wOBA. Defensively, he’s one of the worst left fielders in the AL.

Ricky Romero, LHP, Toronto
Romero is often the second or third best rookie pitcher in any one of the categories, including K/9 and GB%.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit
Porcello has the highest ground-ball rate in the American League at 56%, two spots ahead of Romero, five spots ahead of Bergesen and seven spots ahead of Anderson.

Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay
Niemann has the 14th lowest batting-average-allowed in the league, four spots ahead of Romero.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the top rookies in Major League Baseball in an attempt to ascertain who is the most deserving candidate for Rookie of the Year in both the American and National Leagues. Today, we’ll take a look at five starting pitchers (minimum 100 IP) in the American League who have a solid chance at the Rookie of the Year award. Yesterday, we looked at the top rookie hitters in the AL.

Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland Athletics

For whatever reason, teammate Trevor Cahill seems to get more ink than Anderson, although the latter player is definitely having the more consistent season. A 2006 second round draft pick out of an Oklahoma high school (by Arizona), Anderson spent just two seasons in the minors before making the club out of spring training in 2009. The southpaw has allowed 126 hits in 121.2 innings of work and he’s leading AL rookie pitchers in strikeouts with 98 (7.25 K/9) while maintaining a solid walk rate at 2.59 BB/9. Anderson appears to be maintaining the velocity on his fastball better at the MLB level, than he did in the minors. He’s got a respectable ground-ball rate at 49.1% and he’s limiting the line drives with a rate of 14.3%. Also on the positive side, Anderson’s numbers have improved across the board in July and August so he’s learning and making adjustments.

Brad Bergesen, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Perhaps the least-heard-about-name on this list, Bergesen just keeps plugging away despite having almost zero hype entering the season. The former fourth round draft pick was taken out of a California high school in 2004 and he honed his skills in the minors for five seasons. Bergesen has almost freaky-good control, having posted a walk rate below 2.00 BB/9 in all but one minor league season prior to 2009 (his first, when he appeared in just five games). The right-hander is a sinker/slider pitcher whose fastball averages around the upper-80s, so he needs that control (and command) to succeed. As he gets around the league a little more, Bergesen may have to break out the changeup (7.9% usage) a little more. His ground-ball rate of 50.1% definitely helps him survive in the AL East. Overall, he’s allowed 126 hits in 123.1 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 2.34 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 4.74 K/9.

Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

The 6’9” right-hander took longer to reach the Majors than many thought he would after being taken fourth overall out of Rice University in the 2004 draft. It’s been worth the wait for the 26-year-old pitcher. After a couple of up-and-down months to start the year, Niemann has settled in to become one of the Rays’ most reliable starters. Overall, he has allowed 116 hits in 120.2 innings of work. He has a 2.98 BB/9 rate and a strikeout rate of 5.74 K/9. Niemann, though, has been helped by a low BABIP allowed of .283. He’s also a flyball pitcher who has kept the ball in the park (0.90 HR/9). Niemann doesn’t throw as hard as he did in college – now averaging around 92 mph – but he mixes in four pitches. He handles right-handed and left-handed batters well, with identical batting-averages-allowed at .255.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Not surprisingly, the 20-year-old rookie has wilted a bit under the hot summer sun (8.79 ERA, 21 hits in 14 innings in July). With only one minor league season under his belt, Porcello has performed admirably given his lack of experience. In 20 starts, he’s allowed 118 hits in 111 innings of work, while also posting a solid walk rate of 3.08 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 4.54 K/9. Home runs have been an issue for Porcello (1.38 HR/9) even though he has a ground-ball rate of 56.1%. He’s been aided by a low BABIP allowed of .282. Porcello relies heavily on his sinking fastball that averages out around 91 mph, but he also mixes in a curveball and changeup. The right-hander has a very bright future but he’s fallen back a bit in the Rookie of the Year race.

Ricky Romero, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Romero is a perfect example of how patience is often needed when dealing with young players – and pitchers in particular. After being taken with the sixth overall pick of the 2005 draft out of Cal State Fullerton, the southpaw struggled with his command and confidence in the minors. He was constantly compared to Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who was selected one pick after Romero and reached in the Majors in his first full season. Romero finally earned the call to the Majors in his fifth pro season, but he’s still young at the age of 24. The southpaw made some adjustments to his delivery with Toronto’s pitching coach Brad Arnsberg and his command and control have both significantly improved. Overall, Romero has allowed 114 hits in 115.2 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 3.42 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.00 K/9. He’s allowed his fair share of line drives at 20.3%, but he’s done a nice job of offsetting that with ground balls at 52%. Romero has a nice fastball for a lefty and it averages out around 91.6 mph. He also utilizes a curveball, slider, and changeup.

Honorable Mention: Andrew Bailey, RHP, Oakland Athletics

It’s hard for relievers to get taken seriously for the Rookie of the Year award, but Bailey is definitely making a name for himself. The right-hander has racked up 16 saves in 20 attempts for the Athletics. He also has a stunning strikeout rate of 10.29 K/9. His walk rate is 3.14 BB/9. Bailey, 25, has limited batters to 40 hits in 63 innings of work. His success is even more impressive considering that he spent the majority of his minor league career working out of the starting rotation.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at some rookie hitters in the National League.

My, how time flies. It’s already June and the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft takes place today, which will cause an (exciting) influx of talent into the sport. But there are already some pretty gifted, young players in Major League Baseball. A number of those players are currently vying for the American League Rookie of the Year award. If you sift through all the names, two players float to the surface: Texas’ Elvis Andrus and Detroit’s Rick Porcello.

When the season began, there weren’t many people (outside of Texas and Detroit) that thought these two players would be in the thick of the Rookie of the Year race at this point of the season. It’s not that these two players aren’t talented – they are, and have been at the top of their organizations’ prospect charts (Andrus was signed by Atlanta and traded to Texas) since they signed as amateurs – but they are the youngest players in the Majors at the age of 20. As well, Porcello was just drafted out of high school in 2007 and, after signing too late to play that year, he spent just one year in the minors, which is virtually unheard of for a prep prospect.

So, to this point, which player deserves the Rookie of the Year award? One of the most exciting things about comparing these two players is the fact that both 20-year-old rookies are playing for first-place clubs, so they’re both contributing to a winning team. The biggest difference between the two players is that Andrus is a position player (shortstop), while Porcello is a starting pitching. Andrus likely gets the immediate edge because he impacts his club everyday, while Porcello takes to the mound once every five days. Unfair, perhaps, but a valid point nonetheless.

Currently, Andrus is hitting a solid .276/.330/.405 with three home runs and nine stolen bases in 12 attempts. In 49 games (163 at-bats), the Venezuelan shortstop has plate rates of 6.3 BB% and 13.% K%. Obviously, he’s a bit of a free swinger with a low walk rate, but his strikeout rate shows that he makes good contact. His line-drive rate of almost 20% shows that he’s not just flicking his bat at the ball to make contact with non-strikes; He’s hitting the ball with some authority.

As well, Andrus is playing to his strengths with a ground-ball rate of 57.2%. He’s not a power hitter, so he’s putting the ball on the ground (or on the line) and good things have been happening. Another encouraging number is the BABIP rate of .304. He hasn’t been very lucky with his balls in play, so we can expect a few more to drop in over the course of the season, which could increase his batting average even more.

We also, of course, need to discuss Andrus’ defense because, well, that’s the main reason he’s in the Majors. The gifted fielder has already received some consideration for a Gold Glove. His fielding percentage is a little below the league norm, but that can be blamed somewhat on the fact that Andrus gets to a lot more balls than the average fielder. His RF/g (range factor per game) is 5.16, compared to the league average of 3.94. Obviously, Andrus is impacting the club with his glove just as much as with his bat, if not more.

Porcello, on the other hand, had a bit of a slow start to the year and lost three of his first four decisions (Like it or not, win totals seems to be a popular category amongst RoY voters). However, the young hurler then went on a tear in May and won all five of his starts. In those five starts, the New Jersey native allowed just five runs in total.

Overall, in 11 starts on the season, Porcello has a 3.98 ERA, but his FIP is 5.10 which suggests he’s been getting a lot of help from his fielders. That’s not surprising considering that he’s a ground-ball pitcher who lives and dies by his defense. The right-hander has a ground-ball rate of 55.4%. However, when batters get the ball in the air against Porcello, they usually hit it hard and he’s already allowed 10 home runs (17.1 HR/FB) while pitching in a spacious home ballpark.

Despite putting a lot of balls in play (His strikeout rate is just 5.31 K/9), Porcello has allowed just 59 hits in 61 innings of work. For such a young pitcher, he controls the strike zone very well and he’s walked just 20 batters (2.95 BB/9). He is struggling a bit in the splits column. Porcello has handled right-handed batters very well (.186 batting average) but he’s allowed a line of .300/.362/.500 to left-handed batters. An improved changeup (which he uses just 9.3% of the time) might help to combat those troublesome match-ups.

At this point, my feeling would be that Andrus deserves the Rookie of the Year award a little more than Porcello, who is showing that there is still some work to be done when you look at his FIP and HR/FB rate. As for those actually voting on the award, they will likely be attracted to Andrus’ flashy play and the fact that Texas has improved significantly over last year – in no small part because of Andrus’ defense, which has allowed the Rangers’ pitchers to put balls in play with confidence.

Regardless of who is deserving of the award, both teams should be incredibly excited for the future. Both rookies are building solid foundations for what should be excellent MLB careers.

The Detroit Tigers took Rick Porcello at #27 in the first round during the 2007 amateur draft out of Seton Hall Prep in West Orange, New Jersey. The Toronto Blue Jays selected Ricky Romero at #6 in the first round during the 2005 amateur draft out of Cal St. Fullerton. This past Thursday, April 9th, both made their major league debuts despite somewhat drastically different routes to the big leagues.

More interesting is that they made their debuts against one another, which according to the MLB Network happens to be a baseball first, in that this matchup marked the very first time two rookies previously drafted in the first round made their debuts while squaring off in the same game.

Porcello surprisingly earned a spot in the Tigers rotation out of spring training after never pitching above A-ball. On top of that, a strict development program instituted last season specifically called for Porcello to work on his secondary offerings at the expense of some performance based indicators. Though he failed to fan more than six batters per nine innings in a low level of minor league baseball, many scouts remarked that Porcello was merely toying with the hitters, capable of dominating at any point if the Tigers shortened the leash on his throwing program.

In his debut, Porcello lasted five innings, walked one, fanned four, and induced grounders on 64% of his balls in play. Essentially, though his actual pitching line will not earn him the Game Score of the year, Porcello performed as advertised, recording strikeouts, showing solid poise and control, and keeping the ball on the ground.

Romero has a bit more seasoning, having attended Cal St. Fullerton from 2001-05 before spending the next three seasons in the minor leagues. The last year and a half of his minor league career is particularly intriguing in the sense that Romero performed better against tougher comptition. In 2007, after 4.1 innings in High A-ball, Romero posted a 8.2 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 in Double-A. His first 121.2 innings in 2008 came in Double-A, where the aforementioned rates regressed to 5.8 and 4.1, respectively. 41.2 innings of Triple-A competition later and Romero was striking out 8.0 batters per nine while walking just 4.2 over the same span.

Though his pitching line appears much better than Porcello’s, specifically the 6 IP-2 ER part, both had very similar outings. Romero walked two, fanned five, and induced grounders on 59% of his balls in play. Both even throw their fastballs at very similar velocities. The major difference in their debuts can be found in pitch distribution, as Porcello, perhaps happy to once again have free range with the fastball, threw the pitch 74% of the time. Romero, as is the case with seemingly all Blue Jays starting pitchers, threw under 50% fastballs and incorporated more of his offspeed pitches.

Romero is not likely to have as much wiggle room as Porcello given his age and that the Blue Jays passed on Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Garza to acquire his services. Unfortunately, I fear that even if he becomes capable of holding down #3-starter status in the big leagues–which is no easy feat–Romero may be viewed as a disappointment. Both of these pitchers will forever be linked by the historical nature of their debuts and our eyes should be kept on each as the season progresses.

The Graduate: Matt Joyce | Born: August 1984 | Outfielder

For the third season in a row, Detroit received an unexpected contribution from a young outfielder. Matt Joyce did his best Brent Clevlen/Ryan Raburn (Who also plays the infield) impressions in 2008… and Detroit can only hope he doesn’t follow their subsequent leads during his return engagement in 2009 (Both players fell on their faces in their second MLB seasons). This past season, Joyce hit .252/.339/.492 with 12 homers in 242 at-bats. He posted rates of 11.4 BB% and 26.9 K%. His .240 ISO was well above average for his minor league career, although he has shown more power each season. At worst, he should be a productive fourth outfielder.

The Riser: Rick Porcello | Born: December 1988 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The Tigers managed to give away just about every prospect in the system – save for Rick Porcello (Who thankfully wasn’t eligible to be traded last winter due to draft/minor league service time). Despite not pitching in his draft season due to signing late, Porcello was fast-tracked to High-A ball as a teenager and posted a 2.66 ERA in 24 starts. He allowed just 116 hits in 125 innings pitched and posted rates of 2.38 BB/9 and 5.18 K/9. The lack of strikeouts is obviously a concern, but Porcello has excellent stuff and is just learning how to get pro hitters out. Even so, don’t be surprised to see him in Detroit in the second half of 2009. The Tigers organization is not afraid to rush young players, and Porcello is that good.

The Tumbler: Michael Hollimon | Born: June 1982 | Shortstop

Michael Hollimon showed an intriguing mix of power and speed in his first three pro seasons but things went very, very wrong for him in 2008. Despite making his MLB debut in 2008, he hit just .211/.306/.420 in 331 at-bats in Triple-A. He posted rates of 12.9 BB% and (ugh) 32.9 K% in 2008. He failed to hit double-digits in stolen bases for the first time in full-season ball but posted an ISO of .208. After the season, it was announced that Hollimon – already 26 with limited MLB experience – would miss much of 2009 after undergoing surgery on the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Ryan Perry | Born: February 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Detroit took a number of hard-throwing college relievers in the 2008 draft in the hopes of having them move quickly through the system to compensate for a lack of existing depth. Ryan Perry is considered the best of the bunch. Unfortunately, he did show some rough edges in his pro debut in High-A ball. He allowed 15 hits and seven walks in 11.2 innings, despite also striking out 12 batters. Perry’s fastball can reach the upper-90s but it lacks movement. His slider, when it’s on, has been compared to Brad Lidge’s breaking ball.

The ’09 Sleeper: Brandon Hamilton | Born: December 1988 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Brandon Hamilton’s selection out of high school in the 2007 draft was overshadowed by Porcello, but he is also a very promising pitcher. Hamilton began the 2008 season in extended spring training and then received a promotion to A-ball and allowed 34 hits in 32.1 innings. He struck out 22 hitters, but his control deserted him and he allowed 28 walks. Hamilton was then demoted to Rookie Ball where he pitched in nine games. He posted a 1.97 ERA and allowed 27 hits in 38.2 innings. He walked 13 batters and struck out 42. He should open 2009 back in A-ball, if healthy.

Up Next: The St. Louis Cardinals

There is no doubt that the Detroit Tigers organization has had a disappointing season up to this point. However, there is good news in the minor league system.

After purging most of its top prospects from the system this past winter to acquire such names as Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, and Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers organization was rated as having one of the worst systems in the game. But a number of the mid-level prospects in the system have improved their games. As well, top pitching prospect and 2007 first-round pick Rick Porcello made his much-anticipated pro debut.

Porcello, who was drafted out of a New Jersey high school, was considered a Top 10 talent but he fell to the 27th overall pick due to signability concerns. Every team in the league who passed him up now regrets it, as he is holding his own in High-A ball as a 19-year-old. He throws in the mid-90s and has a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball, curve, slider and change-up.

So far this season, Porcello has a 2.94 ERA in 67.1 innings. He has allowed 67 hits and only 19 walks, to go along with 41 strikeouts. Although he is not striking out a ton of batters, Porcello is inducing more than 2.2 ground balls for every fly ball out and only four balls have left the yard. He is actually having better luck against left-handed batters (.222 batting average), than righties (.283).

His worst game of the season came on June 1 when he faced the Dunedin Blue Jays for the fourth time in a month. He allowed four earned runs on nine hits and three walks over 4.2 innings. Porcello was been excellent so far in his pro career despite skipping over both short season ball and low A-ball. He could end up being one of the first pitchers from the 2007 draft to make it to the majors, which is good news for the Detroit Tigers.