Taking a Step Back: Matt Adams and Brandon Crawford

Before the start of the regular season, we took a look at a few American League hitters who, based on their recent batted ball profiles, looked to be headed for a decline this season. While the season is now a little more than a week old, it’s not too late to look at a couple of their National League peers. You’ll have to take my word for it that these players were chosen prior to Opening Day, and I didn’t wait for their early season slow starts to cherry-pick Matt Adams and Brandon Crawford as my two senior-circuit selections.

Having a “good draft” doesn’t mean simply hitting on your first-round selection. That’s a nice start, but drafts are made when significant major league contributors are tabbed in the early, middle and late rounds. In 2009, the St. Louis Cardinals hit a draft home run when they identified a major-league starter in the 23rd round, when they selected first baseman Matt Adams, out of Slippery Rock University in Pennsylvania.

When you’re choosing a first baseman at that stage in the draft, you are seeking a bat, other tools be damned. And that’s exactly what Adams brought to the table. He hit early and often, batting .316/.362/.560 in 1,596 minor league plate appearances, hitting .300 or better at each level. Each season I compile an ordered list of top minor league batting prospects based on production relative to league and level, adjusted for age. The order is then tweaked based on traditional scouting methods.

Adams qualified for this list in all three of his qualifying minor league seasons, ranking No. 104 in 2010, No. 70 in 2011 and No. 46 in 2012. This is actually good, but not great, for his position. There is an extremely high offensive bar there, but it did mark him as a desirable bat capable of becoming a major league regular. Another important note: Adams, who didn’t turn 21 until the last day of August of his draft year, was very young for his class. The big leagues are full of 17-year-old high school, 20-year-old college junior and 21-year-old college senior drafts. Age matters.

Adams has continued hitting since receiving his first big-league opportunity late in 2012. Last year was his first full season as a starter, and he was a solid performer. He batted .288/.321/.457 and had a 115 OPS+. His style is vintage Cardinal: line drives to all fields, take what you’re given, don’t force the issue.

Let’s take a closer look at Adams’ offensive repertoire by examining his plate-appearance frequency and production by BIP type data:

FREQ – 2014
Adams	%	REL	PCT
K	20.2%	107	65
BB	4.6%	58	12
POP	8.2%	113	61
FLY	31.2%	109	71
LD	26.5%	122	94
GB	34.2%	80	7

Adams is a free swinger. His K rate is higher than average — but not that high for a middle of the order type — with a percentile rank of 65. His BB rate is extremely low, at a 12 percentile rank. This is not an ideal base upon which to build an offensive game. To meet the high standard of a first baseman, batted-ball authority will need to be somewhat exceptional.

The eyecatcher among Adams’ batted-ball ball frequencies is his line-drive rate. At 26.5% it was among the best in the NL last season, with a 94 percentile rank. Liner rates, however, fluctuate much more so than other BIP types. There are some players, such as Robinson Cano and Joe Mauer, who post high liner rates every year and have established a clear talent in this area. It’s early, but I’d guess Adams doesn’t belong in that class. His liner rates were a bit below league average in his first two minor league trials.

Adams also leans toward being more of a fly ball (71 percentile rank) rather than a ground-ball (7) hitter, though not to an extreme level that would cause concern.

So much for the frequencies. Let’s look at the production by BIP type data, which will give us a feel for Adams’ batted-ball authority:

PROD – 2014
Adams	AVG	OBP	SLG	REL PRD	ADJ PRD
FLY	.294		.690	103	105
LD	.701		1.009	122	101
GB	.283		.312	135	93
ALL BIP	.365		.582	132	113
ALL PA	.287	.320	.457	118	103

Adams’ actual production on each BIP type is indicated in the AVG and SLG columns, and it’s converted to run values and compared to MLB average in the REL PRD column. That figure then is adjusted for context, such as home park, luck, etc., in the ADJ PRD column. For the purposes of this exercise, SH and SF are included as outs and HBP are excluded from the OBP calculation.

Normally, when you look at this type of information for a productive first baseman, the numbers are much louder. Nothing really stands out in Adams’ profile. He batted a fairly ordinary .294 AVG and .690 SLG on fly balls, for an actual 103 REL PRD that is modestly adjusted upward to 105 ADJ PRD for context. He was quite lucky on liners and grounders, as his 122 and 135 REL PRD marks were adjusted downward significantly to 101 and 93 ADJ PRD for context, respectively.

On all BIP types combined, Adams was fortunate to post a 132 REL PRD, as his BIP authority supports only a 113 ADJ PRD. Add back the Ks and BBs, and those figures drop to 118 and 103, respectively. To Adams’ credit, he doesn’t have an excessive pull tendency, and he has to be played honestly by opposing defenders. This keeps his floor reasonably high. As for his ceiling, we may have seen it in 2014.

The only truly noteworthy positive in Adams’ offensive arsenal last season was his extremely high line-drive rate, which is very unlikely to repeat itself in the future. If he were to perform at MLB-average rates for his actual batted-ball mix, his ADJ PRD would have been 103. If he were to have posted an MLB-average liner rate, he would have hit only .249/.284/.410, for a 94 ADJ PRD. That doesn’t get it done as a starting first baseman.

Going forward, Adams is going to need make some strides with his BB rate, and he had better learn to selectively pull the ball in the air for power without ramping up his grounder pull rate. Plus, he needs to keep that liner rate as high as possible, though 26.5% likely isn’t happening again. He’s a really big guy, and it takes athleticism that he might not have to make some of these changes. Best guess is Adams settles in as a second-division starting first baseman in the intermediate term.

Next up, Brandon Crawford. If Crawford were draft-eligible following his sophomore year at UCLA, he might have been one of the first players selected. He was one of the best prospects on Cape Cod, and he seemed to be on the fast track. Then he had a very ordinary junior season, and dropped to the fourth round of the 2008 draft, where the Giants snapped him up.

Crawford didn’t make a ton of offensive noise in the minors, batting just .266/.331/.403 in 1,107 minor league at bats, qualifying for my minor league position player prospect list only once, at No. 35 in 2009, after an explosive start in the High-A California League. It was his defense that got him to the major leagues, but that one California League outburst reminded people that the offensive potential he showed early in his college career might still be lurking.

He has settled in as an average to slightly below-average offensive shortstop in his three-plus years as a regular. He’s made subtle strides relative to the league as his numbers have remained consistent while the run-scoring environment has crumbled around him over time.

Let’s go through the same process with Crawford as we did with Adams, first taking a look at his 2014 plate appearance frequency information:

FREQ – 2014
Crawford	%	REL	PCT
K	22.9%	122	77
BB	10.5%	133	82
POP	8.3%	115	63
FLY	32.8%	115	82
LD	19.5%	90	24
GB	39.3%	92	34

Crawford’s K and BB rates were both much higher than league average, with percentile ranks of 77 and 82, respectively. Both were easily career highs, with his BB rate showing material growth. That rate had never previously been above league average. Though the K rate is higher than you’d like, the combination of the two represents a decent base upon which to build an offensive game, especially at a defense-first position such as shortstop where the offensive bar is a bit lower.

Crawford became a much different hitter stylistically in 2014 compared to previous seasons. In 2012 and 2013, he was a fairly extreme ground-ball hitter, with grounder percentile ranks of 73 and 88, and fly ball percentile ranks of 15 and 10. In 2014, he flipped the script. He posted a fly ball percentile rank of 82 and grounder percentile rank of 34. For the second straight year, he posted a liner percentile rank in the twenties, at 24.

AT&T Park is no place to be a fly ball hitter. Outside Safeco Field, no ballpark limits damage on fly balls as much. Let’s now look at Crawford’s production by BIP type data to get a better feel for his batted-ball authority:

PROD – 2014
Crawford	AVG	OBP	SLG	REL PRD	ADJ PRD
FLY	.279		.676	97	57
LD	.758		.970	128	91
GB	.241		.278	101	89
ALL BIP	.322		.512	103	74
ALL PA	.238	.319	.379	100	77

Despite his home park, Crawford actually among the most fortunate fly ball hitters in the NL last season. He batted .279 AVG with .676 SLG in the air for an actual 97 REL PRD, despite hard/soft fly ball rates that supported only a 57 ADJ PRD. He also was fortunate on liners and grounders (128 and 101 REL PRD) despite not hitting them as hard as the average hitter (91 and 89 REL PRD).

Putting all of the BIP types together, Crawford’s actual production was just higher than league average at 103 REL PRD, despite his actual BIP authority being much lower than league average at 74 ADJ PRD. Adding back the K and BB, those numbers drift slightly toward the center to 100 and 77, respectively.

A 100 OPS+ shortstop, coupled with quality defense, represents big value. A 77 OPS+? Not so much. Crawford strikes out a lot, doesn’t hit many line drives, hits too many popups for the type of hitter he is and in 2014, became a can-of-corn fly ball hitter. He got away with it last year based on random chance, but if he would have performed at MLB average rates based on his actual batted-ball mix, Crawford would have hit a paltry .205/.289/.318.

Like Adams, Crawford moves the ball around, and therefore does not invite infield overshifts. That, coupled with his ability to work a walk, raises his floor high enough that it won’t wipe out the value of his glove and endanger his starting job anytime soon. Still, anyone banking on an offensive breakthrough is likely to be disappointed.