Testing the Depth: The American League
With the elimination of the waiver deadline, the last two months of the season (or more accurately now, the last six weeks) can leave front office personnel feeling like little more than helpless observers. Problems at the big league level, whether of the health or performance variety, are going to pop up, but for the most part, the answers to those problems have to come from within. Yes, there’s the occasional player who gets designated for assignment who deserves consideration, but otherwise teams will either lean on the depth they’ve spent much of the year trying to establish or curse the risks they took in terms of depth in order to improve their big league roster. Here are the depth situations for the American League playoff contenders, with the National League to follow tomorrow.
American League East
Tampa Bay Rays
Strengths: The Rays bolt together pitching staffs as well as any team in baseball, and there are plenty more pieces available to them at Triple-A Durham should the need arise. They load up on pitch-data darlings while also developing plenty from within, and the result has been the best record in the International League, with their staff generating a team-wide strikeout rate of over 28%. With five current Durham pitchers already on the 40-man roster, managing innings down the stretch shouldn’t be an issue, be it for need or just for the purposes of keeping players fresh. In terms of position players, Vidal Bruján continues to slot in all over the diamond; his ability to play six positions makes him the most likely hitter to be called up.
Weaknesses: As good as the Rays bullpen depth is, if the club needs a starter, it might pose a problem. The club would likely cover with cobbled-together ‘pen games, a strategy they are among the innovators of, and one they execute exceptionally well. It should be mentioned that a rehabbing Chris Archer remains a wild card. While Bruján certainly covers the team up the middle, the Rays really don’t have a corner bat they can rely on at a pair of positions where they already have time-shares. But the biggest possible disaster would involve Mike Zunino missing time; Tampa just signed David Freitas, back from a unsuccessful stint in Korea, to give the team somebody at Triple-A who can catch and has a modicum of big league experience.
Boston Red Sox
Strengths: The Red Sox have shuffled their rotation around in the second half, and while both Martín Pérez and Garrett Richards have scuffled this year, as backup plans go, they’re far better than most team’s minor-league options. There are four active pitchers at Triple-A Worcester on the 40-man, but a sleeper to help down the stretch might be right-handed reliever Durbin Feltman, who has sacrificed a bit of velocity for significantly better command, and has many scouts believing he’s ready for a big league look. Any outfield issues should be covered by Franchy Cordero and/or Delino DeShields.
Weaknesses: The Red Sox were especially exposed in the infield, but the recent acquisition of Travis Shaw off the waiver wire should help to assuage the issue, at least at the corners. But Boston has spent all season with Xander Bogaerts as the team’s only legitimate shortstop, and that remains the case. Chris Herrmann (currently on the IL) and Jett Bandy provide little comfort behind the plate.
New York Yankees
Strengths: The Yankees have used 28 pitchers this year and done an excellent job of navigating their way through injury issues and a series of COVID outbreaks. Deivi García and Luis Severino are working their way back, and Luis Gil remains an option as an emergency starter. They should feel well-stocked in terms of covering innings down the stretch.
Weaknesses: Position players, period. The Yankees are desperate for their everyday players to stay healthy. Their infield problems are already on display, as they opened a critical series against Boston by lining up Andrew Velazquez at shortstop and Rougned Odor out of position at third base. A Clint Frazier return would help their outfield flexibility considerably, as leaning on Greg Allen and Ryan LaMarre is far from ideal for a team hunting for a playoff spot.
Toronto Blue Jays
Strengths: The Toronto bullpen has been an issue throughout the season, and while fringy contributors like Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay can provide innings, the actual impact may come in the form of Nate Pearson, who recently transitioned to a relief role in preparation for a September move to Toronto’s ‘pen. While the 40-man is currently full, keep an eye out for non-roster relief arm Bryan Baker, who has recently been up to 98 mph and has a plus slider.
Weaknesses: The Blue Jays need their bats to stay healthy. The recently called-up Otto Lopez provides coverage at second base and all three outfield positions with a skillset similar to Tony Kemp‘s, though with a bit more speed. Desperate for outfield depth following George Springer’s injury, the club recently acquired a struggling Mallex Smith, who had a 60 wRC+ at Triple-A with the Reds; their catching situation is similarly shallow.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox
Strengths: Chicago’s biggest strength is the standings themselves. The White Sox don’t need depth to get to the playoffs, as the American League Central title is all but clinched. They’ve already proven that they have plenty of hitters who can contribute with players like Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets and Yermín Mercedes, though none of that trio offers any kind of positional flexibility. Seby Zavala’s shockingly good month at least gives the team some comfort as a third catcher once Yasmani Grandal returns from his rehab assignment.
Weaknesses: In shades of their 2005 championship season, the White Sox rotation has remained remarkably healthy, with only eight starts by pitchers outside of their five primary rotation pieces. Carlos Rodón’s IL stint should help manage innings for him, but if a real need arises, the options at Charlotte are quite thin. Other than former Oriole and Mariner Mike Wright Jr., who is pitching well after spending 2020 in Korea, the remainder of the Knights rotation has an ERA north of five.
American League West
Houston Astros
Strengths: The Astros had a bullpen problem, and that problem was solved during the last week of July. An additional benefit of those deadline deals was sudden bullpen depth, as Enoli Paredes, Bryan Abreu and Brandon Bielak are now safe call-ups from Triple-A, while Josh James has looked sharp at times in his rehab outings so far. A return to health for Alex Bregman solves the Astros’ infield issue, but they have more options at the corners than up the middle; keeping Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa in the lineup will be the key to their October fortunes. Similarly, José Urquidy gives the club much-needed rotation depth at the big-league level; a six-man rotation to keep the arms fresh is worth considering for the final month of the season.
Weaknesses: The Astros took a depth risk in their surprising deal to trade Myles Straw to Cleveland on deadline day. The argument is easy to understand from Houston’s point of view, as they believe some combination of Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers will be at least as good as Straw, while the ‘pen is bolstered by the addition of Phil Maton. The risk is that any injuries to the big league group increase the pressure to play Yordan Alvarez and/or Aledmys Díaz out of their comfort zones, as no minor league outfielder is ready for a September look.
Oakland Athletics
Strengths: The Athletics addressed some of their depth issues with one of the low-key best trades of the deadline when they acquired Yan Gomes and Josh Harrison from the Nationals. The loss of Ramón Laureano was covered by the Starling Marte deal, with Chad Pinder and Skye Bolt providing solid options as well. The club has plenty of arms already on the 40-man roster in Las Vegas who could fill in as extra relievers, but a rotation need would be problematic.
Weaknesses: Oakland has spent most of the year with just one actual shortstop on their roster and that remains the case, though Elvis Andrus is an offensive zero with a 66 wRC+. Pete Kozma remains at Las Vegas as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency type, but at least he’s still a solid defender. The team would be severely hampered by the loss of either Matt Chapman and Matt Olson, especially now that Frank Schwindel is getting his chance with the Cubs.
Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.
The Yankees look like they’ll be getting Rizzo back today, and Gio Urshela/Domingo German/Aroldis Chapman within a week or two. They’ll also get Clay Holmes back from the covid list, and potentially be getting Kluber back in a couple weeks as well. Severino looks like he’s either going to be done or maybe pitch out of the bullpen with that latest setback.
The Jays rotation/bullpen might sink them. They are 4 games out with just 44 left to play. They play the Rays/Red Sox/Yankees again this year, so they need to win lots of those head to head matchups, which won’t be easy. Not impossible though. So if the Red Sox go 24-20, they’ll need to go 28-16, just to tie. And they’ll have to bypass two teams which makes it that much tougher. They’ve certainly got the lineup to do it, but Springer being out hurts quite a bit.
My prediction is the Red Sox and Yankees get the final two playoff spots. The Athletics fall out of contention (look at their schedule) and the Jays put themselves in a hole this past week or so. Could definitely be wrong though and there are lots more baseball left to play.
For the Yankees, I’d also note that a Frazier return this year is starting to look increasingly unlikely. He was just sent back to the IL this week, and given his concussion history, the neurological nature of his symptoms is pretty worrisome. I think at this point the hope is mainly that he’s ok in the long term; if he can come back this year, that’s just gravy.
That said, with Voit back and Rizzo returning, the Yankees will basically be forced to play Stanton in the OF with some regularity just to fit everyone in the lineup. That doesn’t fix the depth issue, exactly, given everyone’s health concerns, but it does mean less Allen and LaMarre, at least for the moment.
True. But in this lineup, what does Frazier do exactly? He’s a worse defender than Stanton/Judge/Gallo/Gardner/Wade by a mile. And he’s a worse hitter than at least 3 of them, and maybe 4. Frazier will have three years left of control after this season and if he’s lucky he’ll get dealt to a team that has a spot for him for a couple of prospects. I think he can be a good player, but I get the feeling that the Yankees have grown tired of him. But if the Yankees don’t get any decent offers for him, they’ll just keep him since he’s got an option left.
Yeah, that’s all fair, I was just mentioning it because the article included his possible return. I like Frazier a lot, but he’s been pretty bad this year, so even if he does return I doubt he’d be much help.
Agreed on all counts about his future, too. It’s just never seemed like NY’s really considered him as a part of their long-term plan; even in 2019, when they were breaking IL records, he barely got playing time. As a NYY fan, I’d love it if he became a long-term starter, but for his sake I kinda hope he gets traded somewhere that’ll give him a real chance. Besides, the kid deserves to play for a team that’ll let him grow his hair however he wants.
Worth noting that the standings are in a particularly interesting place today in the AL West and East:
-Yankees, Red Sox, and A’s are all tied for the wild card spot as of today.
-A’s are also only 2.5 games back from the Astros, which is really close. The A’s are in a really tight spot for the wild card, and could still win the division.
-The Blue Jays and Mariners probably aren’t going anywhere but they’re only 4 games back so a hot streak could put them in the wild card; unlikely but a fun lurking possibility.
-The Rays are in a good position to fend off the Yankees and Red Sox but it’s far from assured, because there are two teams that could possibly catch them. It’s also interesting it’s those two teams. They have seven games left against Boston, the most of any team on their schedule, so there’s an opportunity for the Red Sox to either catch them or end their chances of the division for good. Meanwhile, they close on a three-game series against the Yankees, which will make for great viewing if the Yankees are only a game or so behind going in.
The AL Central, meanwhile, is boring AF and the White Sox mostly have to find a way to keep complacency from setting in.
CHW’s pitching depth may be a little better than you describe— Reynaldo Lopez, former top failed prospect, might be a guy again, having just thrown 5 scoreless against Oakland. His results were ugly early while he adjusted to new mechanics, but he’s likely to be in the rotation until the end of the year to help rest the others.
In a pinch, they could get a 3 or 4 inning start out of Kopech like they did earlier in the year, but I don’t think they would. They want him to continue to learn his 6ht/7th inning role as the bridge from the starters to Kimbrel/Hendricks and there isn’t going to be a “pinch” because of the standings and Lopez’s sudden usefulness. They would probably rather give Stievert or Lambert a couple of starts if two guys end up on the IL or if they want to give somebody rest, even if it means punting those games
“Reynaldo Lopez, former top failed prospect, might be a guy again, having just thrown 5 scoreless against an Oakland team that just saw their ace take a 100 mph line drive off his face.”
Fixed it. I’d put zero stock in anything Lopez did in that game.
You know that’s not his only appearance of the season, right? He’s throwing multiple great multi-inning efforts. He may not be a front end starter anymore but he does his job backing up the rotation.
“…zero stock in anything Lopez did in that game.”
“…did in that game.”
“…that game.”
Yes, I’m aware it wasn’t his only 2021 appearance.
He’s been good lately outside that unfortunate game too— he put up 2 of his 3 best starts in AAA of the year just prior to being called up and in the 20 innings before this start he put up 30.1%/6.8% K and BB for a 3.67 FIP. He’s also shown the best FB velo he’s had since joining CHW, and per Statcast actually finally has decent rise on that FB— maybe his biggest problem previously, because the really bad lack of rise meant his FB got crushed even when it was 98. He’s a guy to monitor, bc w a big SSS caveat, his strikeout rate is way up from anything he’s shown before and there’s some interesting stuff going on under the hood too.
Luis Gil seems like more than just an option as an emergency starter so far for the Yankees – 3 starts with 15 innings and no runs allowed. Certainly a better option than deadline pickup Andrew Heaney, who has allowed 8 homeruns in 15 innings in his 3 starts.
Gil does have walk issues that I think just haven’t fully been exploited yet. His stuff is legit though.
I agree to an extent. His walk issues in AAA were probably tied to him working on his secondary stuff more than general wildness. With that walk rate, I expected him to have little control, but that hasn’t been the case. In the bigs he’s thrown his FB over 50% of the time, and his slider 35% of the time. He basically has no clue where his changeup is going but he’s only throwing it about 9% of the time. Though he did walk four last night. But his 4th walk was basically an unintentional intentional walk to Bogaerts to set up Wandy Peralta vs Devers.
Clint Frazier’s spot on the Yankees as currently constructed isn’t there anymore. They don’t trade for Gallo and start playing Stanton in the outfield if it was.
Lamarre and Allen are backups and aren’t even currently on the 26 man roster.
I feel like not mentioning Shane Baz, or Brendon McKay also rehabbing at AAA for the Rays are rather significant omissions. Rays clearly are okay counting on “the kids” down the stretch, see the rest of the rotation.
Also, don’t the Jays have Kirk, Jansen, McGuire, and Moreno? That seems like solid C depth, at least given how bad C are.
Re: the Red Sox and Bogey being the only legitimate big league SS.. I cannot stand Enrique Hernandez. He makes my skin crawl. But,he is very much a legitimate big league SS. IMO that might be his only redeeming quality as a ball player.
I hope this was written before the Severino/Frazier news and just never got updated, because the Yankees are definitely not relying on them to be impact contributors this season. Severino *maybe* out of the bullpen, but I feel like that’s a stretch right now. And the Yankees probably don’t expect Frazier to get much of a chance with them again. The same probably can be said about Andujar as well.
If I’m the Yankees, I would probably prefer Allen (and maybe even Jonathan Davis?) to Frazier or Andujar. At least you know you’re going to get good defense.
I really love Greg Allen, I don’t get the hate- he’s a plus glove/plus speed guy with some pop, perfect in short spurts and as a utility guy in case of emergency. He’s a “glue” guy who won’t try to hit home runs but can be a threat on the basepaths in a pinch/
Guess we’re done considering the Seattle Mariners contenders?
Which we shouldn’t
I meant we shouldn’t be done considering them because they are contending
The horrible Bassitt injury probably means Jefferies into the rotation. I have more confidence in him than I probably should. After that…Homer Bailey?
And they selected Paul Blackburn
Bailey’s hurt & Jefferies pitched Sunday.
The fact that the Yankees used 28 pitchers so far and yet their lineup is still their biggest weakness just seems so weird to me. Most teams that use 28 different pitchers are doing it because most of their guys are injured/sucking. For a long while it seemed like it was the other way around. “Meh” pitching, but they got away with it because they could bully teams with their offense. How quickly things can flip like that is one of the reasons why I love baseball.
So you’re saying you don’t like SEA’s chances…..
(would have expected at least a courtesy ‘well, ya know, they just aren’t any good’ since they are tied with TOR with 3/4 of the season in the books…..)
I agree 100% with this comment. I am aware that Seattles current playoff odds are at 3.4% and they are likely to fade away but they are currently closer to a playoff berth than the Blue Jays, Mets and Cards and I have a feeling the Mets and Cards will be discussed when the NL version of this article comes out.
Seattle deserved a write up in this article….and Im not a Mariners supporter!
100% in agreement. Seems like its just laziness on the author’s part. I know Mariners probably won’t go anywhere but they are there now and after seeing Red Sox, As, and Blue Jays struggle over the last few games, it’s a shame they weren’t included. If Ms do end up making a run, many people are going to have egg on their faces for not doing their homework to at least consider them.
Winning again today. They def have had some great luck this year, but I feel like it is a fallacy to just assume luck will not continue. Some of sequencing is likely a skill, but even if it isn’t, luck doesn’t reverse itself, random things can continue to happen as well.
So the Blue Jays are a contender but the Mariners are not?
Huh.
The Mariners are a cool story and it’d be neat if they made the playoffs, but Toronto’s simply a much, much more talented team at this point in time.
would you consider the Met’s a much, much, more talented than the M’s as well?
Honestly? Yes.
w/o DeGrom I’d say they are pretty comparable and ROS WAR projections seem to agree. (10 to 8 in favor of Mets). Not sure I would consider that ‘much, much, more talented’. I think at least one ‘much’ too many, lol.
I just think it odd to cover every team within striking distance except Seattle, especially teams further back and with worse records. That makes sense at the break but we’re almost at the point when things are going to be decided by luck and hot streaks as much as long-term regressions to the mean. Besides, how much of Seattle’s Run Differential is due to Sheffield alone? I think taking out Sheffield, who won’t be starting any longer, and the M’s actually have a better run +/- than the Mets.
At some point, being three games back begins to actually mean something.
and I’ll lose analytics points for citing this, but ESPN’s 8-member panel ranked Seattle #16 and Mets #17 ROS……as unscientific as that is, just shows that I’m not alone in thinking the M’s and Mets are fairly similar teams at this point…both flawed fringe contenders with an outside shot of the playoffs if things go right.
Kevin explicitly states it in the NL version, but he only looked at teams with >10% Playoff chances per the Fangraphs odds. He didn’t make a judgment call.
true, but using that as the only metric is a bit of a judgment call