The 10 or 11 Worst Plays of the Mets’ Current Losing Streak

The Mets had the day off on Monday, and thank God. In any other line of work, they’d have called in sick with one of those mysterious 24-hour stomach bugs after the week they had. Close the blinds, get some sleep, hope everyone at the office has forgotten you existed by the time you clock in on Tuesday.

See, the Mets have spent the past two months in a real doozy of a race for the NL East title. On June 16, the Phillies beat the Marlins 5-2 while the Mets were idle, cutting New York’s lead in the division to two games. From that day until Tuesday, August 5, the division lead swung back and forth, but neither team could forge an advantage of more that two games.

I’m not above admitting that I found all this quite exciting. Phillies-Mets is a level below baseball’s most prestigious rivalries in terms of national attention, but here we have close geographic neighbors, with rosters that are simultaneously loaded and glaringly flawed. Moreover, both teams have fan bases that are large, loud, and very easy to provoke. Some rivalries are born out of mutual distaste due to difference, but Phillies-Mets is one of the purest examples you’ll find of familiarity breeding contempt.

With two months to go in the season and seven head-to-head matchups left on the slate (plus the potential for several more in the playoffs), it seemed like we were teetering on the edge of something spectacular and horrifying. (The real Guns of August are when Harrison Bader doesn’t wear sleeves. The Braves are the United Kingdom in this metaphor.)

At the same time, that kind of homeostasis in a sporting contest can be a little unsettling. If you’ve ever watched a basketball game that just stayed within a possession or two for the first three quarters, you know what I’m talking about. Even a close matchup has ebbs and flows, and when the water just doesn’t move for two months, you end up waiting for the dam to break.

Well, it broke last week. Starting last Sunday, the Mets have lost seven in a row (and counting), while the Phillies went 7-1. Over that eight-day span, the Phillies gained six and a half games on the Mets, increasing their odds of winning the division from 53.0% to 91.8%:

If the Mets don’t arrest this slide in the next couple days, they’ll be closer in the standings to the third-place Marlins than to the Phillies, and those seven remaining head-to-head matchups won’t be enough to close the gap.

During this skid, the Mets have been outscored 25-43. They’ve allowed a 5.46 ERA as a team and hit just .203. When that kind of thing happens, everyone is to blame. Well, actually everyone except Juan Soto, who’s hit .308/.419/.654 with three home runs and two stolen bases in 31 plate appearances. If not for Soto, the Mets might’ve contrived to lose eight games out of the seven they’ve played.

Still, how in the world did this happen? How did the Mets connive to lose seven games in a row at this crucial juncture? Especially because they held leads in five of those seven games, including two leads at the seventh-inning stretch or later, and one of the two games in which the Mets never led went to extra innings.

Good news! We have a tool to find these pivotal plays: Win Probability Added. A Stathead search makes it easy to find the 10 plays that most badly screwed the Mets over the past week. Here they are, in reverse order.

Honorable Mention: August 8, two outs in the top of the ninth, Jeff McNeil singles to center field off Trevor Megill with a runner on second and the Mets trailing 3-2. Starling Marte gets thrown out at home. -0.11 WPA

This one isn’t technically in the top 10, because the Mets entered the at-bat trailing with two outs in the ninth inning. That’s the definition of having one’s back against the wall. But Trevor Megill hung a curveball, and Jeff McNeil hit it to center. Starling Marte, being in scoring position, rounded third and broke for home.

A Mets fan watching this play might feel the following emotions:

1. Hell yeah, we’re still alive
2. He’s going to score!
3. Man, we needed this. We could not afford to lose five in a row.
4. Wait, why hasn’t Marte scored yet?
5. Did he get lost? I thought he could run!
6. [expletive deleted]

Because the rollercoaster of emotions unfolded after the ball was put in play, WPA doesn’t really capture what a gut punch this play is. But if the Mets do lose the division — or, God forbid, miss the playoffs entirely — this one is going to go on the supercut of traumatic events.

No. 10: August 4, one out in the bottom of the ninth, Pete Alonso strikes out against Cade Smith with the bases loaded and the game tied 5-5. -0.18 WPA

The Mets weren’t dead after Pete Alonso struck out; not only did McNeil get a shot to end the game with two outs, they went to extra innings before capitulating in the 10th. And because this was just the second game of the losing streak, no one could know at the time what this would snowball into.

But yeah, it’s a testament to the quality of the Mets’ lineup that Alonso is not the guy you want up with the bases loaded in the ninth, but he’s certainly a guy you’d want up in that situation. And he didn’t need to hit a home run or even reach base in order to walk it off; all Alonso needed to do was get the ball past the infield, or hit a Baltimore chop, or put some spin on a groundball to short that might handcuff the fielder and leave him unable to get the out at home.

Sometimes, a hitter — even a good hitter — comes up in this situation and there’s nothing he can do, the pitcher is just so nasty. That was not the case here. Cade Smith showed Alonso five fastballs, four of which were in the zone and hittable. Alonso swung at all of them, as he should, but he swung through the first two, popped the third back into the seats, and foul tipped the fourth.

The 2-2 pitch was hittable, but the one that would keep me up nights if I were Alonso was actually the 1-0 offering:

That is one meaty fastball, my friend.

No. 9: August 9, one out in the bottom of the seventh, Joey Ortiz doubles off Ryne Stanek with a runner on first and the Mets leading 4-3. -0.19 WPA

I feel for Ryne Stanek here. That was as cheap a double as he’s ever going to allow in his life, a 70-mph blooper that bounced on the outside part of the chalk and up into the seats. When I talk about getting the bounces, this is the bounce I mean.

Nevertheless, it took the Mets from a pretty innocuous situation — leading the game, runner on first, one out, high-leverage reliever in — to a dire one. Because Joey Ortiz’s popup landed where it did, Stanek had to contend with the tying run on third and the go-ahead run in scoring position with less than two outs and the top of the order coming up. Stay tuned for what happened later in the inning.

No. 8: August 9, two out in the bottom of the second, Joey Ortiz grounds to short off Frankie Montas with the bases loaded. Two runs score on an error by Francisco Lindor. -0.19 WPA

Another sickening miscue for a team that’s starting to spiral. This is a nothing hit, a routine play that should’ve allowed one of the best defensive infielders of his generation his choice of where to throw for the inning-ending out. Instead, Francisco Lindor took his eye off the ball and two runs scored. Now, the Mets fought back to score in each of the next three innings, and remained ahead through Ortiz’s at-bat in the seventh. But they should never have lost the lead in the first place.

No. 7: August 9, two out in the bottom of the seventh, Isaac Collins singles off Ryan Helsley with a runner on third and the game tied 4-4. -0.20 WPA

Sal Frelick followed up Ortiz’s ground rule double with an RBI groundout that chased Stanek and tied the game. But it didn’t change the win probability much; with Brice Turang on third and one out, mathematically the game was as good as tied already. The killer came when the next batter, Isaac Collins, singled in Ortiz.

This is not an easy pitch to hit, a 103-mph 1-2 fastball from Ryan Helsley, up and out of the zone. The fact that Collins swung at it at all makes me want to take back some of that ink I spilled last week praising his plate discipline. But this defensive, pinball-paddle hack nonetheless put the ball on the ground at 99.7 mph. That red-hot grounder caught third baseman Ronny Mauricio on an in-between hop, and if you listen closely you can hear every dad from Rhinebeck to Robbinsville yelling, “Get in front of it!” at his TV.

William Contreras took Helsley deep two pitches later to make it 7-4 Brewers. For those of you keeping score at home, Contreras’ home run was only the 15th-most damaging play of the week.

No. 6: August 5, two out in the top of the seventh, Steven Kwan singles off Tyler Rogers with runners on first and second and the game tied 2-2. -0.22 WPA

You will never find a better example of a seeing-eye single. With the ball hit where it was, I don’t think McNeil or Lindor had a realistic chance of making an out even if they’d gotten to it. But if either one had been able to keep the ball in the infield, it would’ve taken a heroic bit of heads-up baserunning for C.J. Kayfus to score from second.

This is another one for the “Maybe God is real and He hates us, specifically” file. Tyler Rogers came into a tie game and got two outs without too much fuss, then allowed three of the cheapest singles I’ve ever seen, all in a row. Kayfus and Steven Kwan hit the ball fairly hard, but right into the ground, while Brayan Rocchio just stuck his bat out at a pitch that was a foot off the plate and poked it the other way for a hit:

I know that technically this can only be coded as a line drive, but it feels insulting to other line drive singles that they have to be lumped in with this one. Surely Rogers and the Mets find that comforting.

No. 5: August 8, nobody out in the bottom of the fifth, Brice Turang hits a home run off Kodai Senga with a runner on first and the Mets leading 2-0. -0.23 WPA

This is a pretty straightforward home run, which tied the game after the Mets had jumped out in front early and Kodai Senga had cruised through four scoreless innings. But you’ll notice that right before Senga delivers the gopher ball, the broadcast is still showing a replay of him kicking himself. Here’s the last pitch before Turang’s home run:

That’s not an easy play with a fast runner, but Senga has to make it. Otherwise, a solo homer turns into a two-run homer. And with the game tied, the Brewers tacked on a walk, a catcher’s interference, and another walk to load the bases with one out and end Senga’s night.

Brooks Raley, having been summoned to stanch this blooming brushfire, quickly got ahead of Collins, then hit him in the foot with an 0-2 breaking ball to force in the go-ahead (and ultimately winning) run:

The hits (by pitch) just keep on coming.

No. 4: August 3, one out in the top of the third, Rafael Devers homers off Frankie Montas with runners on first and second. -0.25 WPA

A mistake gets hit a mile early in a game that would ultimately end in a lopsided 12-4 final score. The first loss in the streak. Obviously that’s a pretty terrible pitch by Frankie Montas, but Rafael Devers has done worse to better pitchers. This is like in Independence Day when the alien spaceship flies overhead and wakes Will Smith up, and he thinks it’s an earthquake. “Not even a four-pointer. Go back to sleep.”

No. 3: August 4, nobody out in the top of the 10th, David Fry grounds into a fielder’s choice off Ryan Helsley with runners on first and second and the game tied 5-5. Daniel Schneemann scores on a throwing error by Brett Baty. -0.28 WPA

On seeing this list of pivotal plays, I was initially going to draw a comparison between the Mets’ biggest bullpen add at the deadline, Helsley, and the Phillies’ trade for Jhoan Duran. Both fireballers got dropped into the NL East race a week and a half ago from the Midwest; Duran has already converted four save attempts, retiring 12 of the 13 batters he’s faced in the process. Helsley has three meltdowns and a WPA of -0.80 in his five appearances for the Mets.

But between this David Fry/Daniel Schneemann/Brett Baty sequence and the bizarre Collins single, I’m inclined to cut Helsley some slack. I don’t know how delicately I can put this, but: Playoff teams should expect to convert a sacrifice bunt into an out, especially in extra innings.

No. 2: August 10, two out in the bottom of the eighth, Joey Ortiz singles off Ryan Helsley with runners on first and second and the Mets ahead 6-5. -0.31 WPA

This isn’t a terrible pitch. A diving Alonso, or perhaps more accurately, a falling Alonso, gets leather on the ball. Helsley was already on his way to cover first base and would’ve beaten Ortiz to the bag by miles; had Alonso squeezed the ball or even smothered it, the inning would’ve been over. Still, that’s a 100.5-mph grounder, and Alonso will never be confused for Anthony Rizzo; it’s a tough play and a legit single.

What makes this play so grating is that the Mets were up by four runs heading into the bottom of the fourth. Sean Manaea gave up three runs in the bottom of that inning, plus a leadoff single to start the fifth, and he got yanked. That left the Mets’ bullpen with 15 outs to get.

Here’s who they brought in: Reed Garrett, Raley, Rogers, Helsley, and (after the game was tied) Edwin Díaz. That’s a really, really good set of pitchers. I’d put my money on them preserving a two-run lead against anyone.

But Garrett gave up a home run to Contreras to cut the lead to one, and Helsley played with his food a little in the eighth. A leadoff full-count walk to Turang, then a single to Danny Jansen, an eight-pitch strikeout of Brandon Lockridge, and all of a sudden Helsley is on pitch no. 24 against Ortiz with the tying run in scoring position. Once you’re in that position, the game-tying RBI single is known to happen.

No. 1: August 10, nobody out in the bottom of the ninth, Isaac Collins homers off Edwin Díaz with the bases empty and the game tied 6-6. -0.36 WPA

But the Mets weren’t dead yet until Díaz hung a 2-2 slider to Collins, who golfed it into the party seats behind the cutout in right-center. Nothing whatsoever remarkable about the pitch or the result; even a pitcher as good as Díaz makes mistakes. But when that’s the last, and so far most damaging, moment of a seven-game losing streak… well, I’d be quite frustrated in that situation.

One note before we hang this debacle on Helsley and Díaz and leave. You’ll notice that almost all of the extreme negative plays here came with the Mets on defense; that’s how WPA works, since you generally blow games by allowing runs. But from the moment Manaea left Sunday’s game, the Mets went 0-for-12 with two walks, and neither of those baserunners advanced to second base. Like I said, plenty of blame to go around.

If you take out the first game of the losing streak, the Mets have lost their past six games by a total margin of 10 runs. That’s bad, but it’s not what we in sabermetric circles classify as an ass-whooping. The Rockies, for example, are on an eight-game losing streak of their own, with those eight defeats coming by a combined margin of 57 runs.

The Mets aren’t getting played off the field, but at the same time, they’ve lost these games because they’ve swung through fastballs and kicked the ball around the infield in high-leverage situations. I don’t know if that’s more or less frustrating to watch, or what it portends for the rest of the season.

All I know is that if not for a couple seeing-eye singles, and some bad infield defense, and one or two hanging breaking balls, the Mets would still be on course for Armageddon on the Jersey Turnpike. As it stands, they’re still in the race for the NL East, but only barely.