The 2010 Marcel Projections
Yesterday, Tangotiger released the 2010 Marcel projections and now they’re available on all the player pages and in the sortable projection pages.
Couple things of note about the Marcel projections.
– About Marcel, Tango himself writes, “it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.”
– The wOBA calculation I’m using for FanGraphs is going to be different than the ones included in the projections. To keep things consistent, I’m including SB and CS and using the 2009 weights, just like all the other projections.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Just a thought, but I was wondering if Fangraphs stores historical projections (i.e. 2008, 2007, 2006, etc.). It might be interesting to do a multi-year regression on the various projections systems and see which tends the closest, or most optimistic, etc. I know things like that have been done in the past, but I don’t think on such a large scale…
I don’t keep anything but the latest projections in the database, but you can download every year of the Marcels from tangotiger.net if you follow the link in the post. I know Sean stores all the CHONE projections somewhere and I think you can still purchase all the Bill James ones dating back to 2007 or something. I think Dan has all the historical ZiPS over at baseballthinkfactory.org too.
Basically, there’s ways to get them, but just not here.