The 2010 Marcel Projections
Yesterday, Tangotiger released the 2010 Marcel projections and now they’re available on all the player pages and in the sortable projection pages.
Couple things of note about the Marcel projections.
– About Marcel, Tango himself writes, “it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.”
– The wOBA calculation I’m using for FanGraphs is going to be different than the ones included in the projections. To keep things consistent, I’m including SB and CS and using the 2009 weights, just like all the other projections.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Just a thought, but I was wondering if Fangraphs stores historical projections (i.e. 2008, 2007, 2006, etc.). It might be interesting to do a multi-year regression on the various projections systems and see which tends the closest, or most optimistic, etc. I know things like that have been done in the past, but I don’t think on such a large scale…
I don’t keep anything but the latest projections in the database, but you can download every year of the Marcels from tangotiger.net if you follow the link in the post. I know Sean stores all the CHONE projections somewhere and I think you can still purchase all the Bill James ones dating back to 2007 or something. I think Dan has all the historical ZiPS over at baseballthinkfactory.org too.
Basically, there’s ways to get them, but just not here.
Is there a way to download the fan projections into a spreadsheet?
I’ll make a download button this week.
Excellent!
If this can be done for CHONE as well that would be great.
Just go to baseballprojection.com You can download the full spreadsheets there.
Alexei Ramirez is being sorted as a second baseman, he should be a shortstop.
Chris Coghlan (.370 wOBA!) is missing from the sortable projection pages. Not sure how he ended up with such a high projection, particularly with such limited MLB experience. Maybe that’s why he was taken out of the sortable page? Is it an error?
Both the Alexei Ramirez and Coghlan problems should be fixed. Was grabbing position info from the wrong year.
Is there anywhere to download a database of historical stats (for free)? I’m looking to put a projection system together, but I have no data.
Here’s what you’re looking for: http://baseball-databank.org/
BDB is a database with all of the traditionally box-score measured statistics for any player in any year (or at least any year of likely interest to your project, don’t recall how far it goes back, though I’m sure it’s into the 1800’s). That should be all you would need for a Marcels type projection.
Thanks is entirely what you need for a Marcel forecast. And the data is inclusive of the entirety of MLB history.
Awesome, thanks so much.