The Contact Tales: 2008
Starting Pitchers (Min IP: 100)
The Best:
Rich Harden 69.6%
CC Sabathia 72%
Edinson Volquez 73.7%
Tim Lincecum 73.9%
Ryan Dempster 74.7%
Wonder why folks are so gung-ho on an oft-injured starter like Harden? Because of this, and because of what he did in 2009. The guy may not be able to stay healthy for full seasons at a time, but he can miss bats, and on the off-chance he does stick around for 30-35 starts, he figures to be a pretty nice asset.
The Worst:
Livan Hernandez 91.3%
Sidney Ponson/Kyle Kendrick 89.9%
Carlos Silva 89.2%
Aaron Cook 88.8%
It is with great regret that I remind everyone how Silva fell well shy of the 100 innings plateau in 2009. That means this is his final mention throughout the series. Go solemnly into the night, sweet prince.
Relief Pitchers (Min IP: 40)
The Best:
Brad Lidge 63.6%
Juan Cruz 66%
Ramon Ramirez 68.7%
Francisco Rodriguez 69.3%
Robinson Tejeda 69.5%
Give the Royals credit for something: over the last two years they’ve held three of the least hittable relievers in baseball during the 2008 season. Cruz hasn’t worked out, Ramirez was traded for Coco Crisp, but Tejeda stepped up. Now back to thrashing the Royals on every move, as is noted in the Creed of Sabermetrics.
The Worst:
Todd Jones 89.7%
Chad Bradford 88.6%
Eddie Guardado 87%
Jim Johnson 86.7%
Luis Ayala 86.5%
Bradford made a career out of generating weak contact, yet 88.6% was on the extreme side, even for him. His career contact rate remains 83.1% despite falling off a wagon in 2009 and having a few uncharacteristic seasons near the presumable end of his career. It’s too bad, that delivery is one that needs to be viewed for generations to come.
Okay, that’s four in a row for Carlos Silva. I can hope no more. The newest Cub apparently throws glorified sausages over the plate.
I was slightly hopeful that Bradley-for-Silva wasn’t going to be a complete disaster. Now I’m just hoping that Silva isn’t long for the Cubs roster. It’s not like Larry Rothschild has a great track record of turning struggling pitchers around. There was Jason Marquis for the 1st half of 2007 and………drawing a blank.
Well, in all fairness, Al at Bleed Cubbie Blue tried to make the point that Hendry revived Dempster in ’03 and Rusch in ’03; but these were pitchers with either: 1) a history of (at least moderate) success or 2) incredibly low FIP/xFIPs.
When Harden is good & healthy, he’s a 4 WAR player, when he’s not he’s been either a 2 WAR guy or less than 1 WAR.
In short, he’s a plus when he’s a surprise, but you don’t want to *count* on him.
I think the point could be made that 08 was, by far, the best Harden has pitched … and 2009 was not so great 1.34 WHIP.
When Harden’s WHIP 1.0X, he’s outstanding (duh) … it’s just, at this point, he’s probably more likely to put up a WHIP that is closer to the 1.3X number …. that results in an ERA that is about 1.5 to 2.0 points higher in ERA (or pick whatever measurement you want for “runs allowed” due to giving up more walks and hits — runners).
People are also going bat poop crazy over a guy that hasn’t pitched over 150 IP since 2004.
Harden, for me, is somewhat like Scherzer. It can be frustrating. You see all that awesome stuff, and are just amazed at his potential to dominate, but then you watch him lose control (location) and struggle, and wonder “what the hell happened?” … he just retired 12 in a row and now he can’t throw a strike or miss a bat?
Athletically, he’s a specimen. Mechanically, he has some issues.
[1] The elbow from his glove side arm is not close enough to his hip (“flying open”).
[2] Toe point toward home too early (doesn’t take the side of his foot toward the catcher).
[3] (from the link) … shows the ball to CF. This feature is getting more and mor attention for injury due to the unnecessary stress it puts on the arm. Harden could “show the ball to 3B, instead of CF” and maintain all of his ‘stuff’, and reduce stress on the shoulder/elbow.
Here’s a good link that I found examining Harden’s mechanics. Don;t bet on him for a full season.
The 2nd pic from the top, does display awesome hip/shoulder seperation. Notice how his belt buckle faces home and his pitch arm shoulder is facing 3B. That’s good.
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/RichHarden.html
Harden does pitch very “gracefully” and smotth, but that does not men he has good mechanics. The front leg (foot moving toward the C sideways) should be an easy thing to fix, as is the gloveside elbow staying close to the body (whether the glove is tucked or not), as is the ball facing CF instead of 3B. makes me wonder why he hasn;t made these simple, easily correctable corrections?
Forgive the typos … in a rush.
Nice link on Harden’s mechanics. That explains a lot. Best of luck in TX to Harden though. I wish the Cubs thought more highly of him and made some effort to hold onto him. His departure left a hole in the rotation (Z, Lilly, Dempster, Wells and ?) that his potential replacement (Marshall, Gorzelanny, Silva (ack!)) probably won’t come close to filling.
Mechanics stuff is really interesting, but you do realize that fangraphs carries statistics that are much more useful than WHIP and ERA, right?
I realize that when someone posts ERA and WHIP stats, that another FG reader is required to state that there are more advanced metrics to measure pitching performance (and often for good reason).
My reasoning for posting those two stats is from a simple glance at Harden’s stats page there is a strong correlation between his low WHIP and low ERA seasons, and high higher WHIP and higher ERA seasons. He’s either a 1.0X and 2.50 guy or a 1.3x and a 4.00 guy. Through his career his ERA seems to be right about 2.50 or over 4.00, nothing really in between. His FIP #’s or more dispersed, either a high 2’s guy or a high 3’s. In short, when he allows more runners (often via walks), he allows more runs. The stats I used often represent this, without including more advanced metrics.
My simple point was he’s either “really good” or only “slightly good to average”.
The most important point, regardless is his mechanics and IP since 2004. Also included (WHIP/ERA/FIP/BBp9/Kp9)
2005 = 128.0 (1.06/2.53/2.90/3.02/8.51)
2006 = 46.2 (1.22/4.44/4.18/5.01/9.45)
2007 = 25.2 (1.13/2.45/3.94/3.86/9.47)
2008 = 148.0 (1.06/2.07/2.95/3.71/9.82)
2009 = 141.0 (1.34/4.09/4.35/4.28/10.91)
Looking at that his K-Rate is rather consistent. Despite his best KRate in ’09, it didin;t matter because he posted a 4.28 BB/9, which going by his other years, resulted in his much higher ERA (or other metric that represents runs allowed).
Harden has control and injuries issues … and that is why people point out stuff other than stats like Harden’s contact % and observations of his “outstanding stuff”.
Comparing his really good 08 to his not really good 09 …
2008: 2277p / 148 IP = 15.4 p/IP (5.92 IP/GS)
2009: 2483p / 141 IP = 17.6 p/IP (5.43 IP/GS)
The key to Harden’s success is (duh) throwing more strikes, with health & durability being the other key … although even in healthy seasons he doesn’t approach 200 IP.
In the intial post, I “kept it simple”, because the simple stats told the basic story.
I wonder if Mike Maddux and the rest of the Rangers pitching staff can solve one or more of these problems. After Brandon McCarthy went on the 60-day DL with a sore shoulder, he came back with some new mechanics.
Well, if there was a family that understand ideal pitching mechanics, it would be the ‘Madduxes’.
Flying open is the easiest to correct, and the one that would most immediately affect control. IMO, harden will likely find keeping his GAS (glove arm side) elbow close to his hip more comfortable than not.
Changing the movement of his lead leg is going to improve the risk on his shoulder.
Showing the ball to 3B instead of CF is another easy one, but not only does he show the ball to CF, but his arm action draws it back to where he shows the ball to the RF side of CF, which just makes it worse. I wouldn;t count on a P in MLB changing either his arm or lead leg action, but he could most certainly change the action of his GAS elbow, without “overhauling” everything.
This might be a question this obvious to everyone, but how quickly do you think Contract Rate normalizes in-season?
In approximately one hour, depending on traffic conditions.