The 2015 Royals: A Baseball Team for Baseball Fans
I watched the last Super Bowl in Seattle. It was a hell of a football game. It followed what had been, for the Seahawks, a miraculous conference championship game, and in the Super Bowl itself, another miraculous event put the Seahawks on the verge of a title. And then, in the dying seconds, a controversial play was called, and they threw an interception from the one-yard line. That quickly, everything that happened before was erased. A feeling crept into the fans around me, and collectively they refused to feel it. Instead, they felt confusion. Why pass? Why not run? What if they had run? The real heartache did sink in in time, but still the confusion lingers. Why not run? Would they have won if they had run? As far as the sport is concerned, it’s the greatest unanswerable question imaginable. There is no closure to be found. The closure doesn’t exist.
I also watched the previous Super Bowl in Seattle. They say people were nervous about it, but the game was shockingly comfortable. On the very first play, the Seahawks recorded a safety. The eventual celebration knew nothing of the horror that was to come. It knew nothing of the fact that a year later, that celebratory feeling would be impossible to remember unblemished.
I’ve asked myself a hundred times what it would’ve felt like if the two Super Bowls were reversed. Seemed to me, it would’ve felt perfect.
By necessity, every baseball season ends with a champ. That’s precisely how the whole thing is designed. Every baseball season, then, ends with a party, and it ends with one team partying, and it ends with one team writing a good story for the people who follow it. Every season, 30 groups of mostly grown men show up to spring training and tell people they believe in themselves, and every season, one group has its confidence rewarded. When 30 different teams declare that the mission is winning the World Series, then in the end, you’re guaranteed one team that you could say knew all along.
Every champ has a good story. Every champ has its surprising moments, every champ has its surprising contributors, and every champ has overcome its own adversity. As baseball goes, there’s nothing real special about the fact that the 2015 Royals just won the title. Somebody had to. It’s not just that the Royals won that makes them so deeply fulfilling. It’s everything. It’s all the context. The Royals have authored one of the great baseball stories, a story that elevates them above some run-of-the-mill other champion.
A year ago, the background was: it’s the Royals. The pathetic, forgettable, good-for-nothing Royals. The laughingstock Royals, the sad-sack Royals, literally in the playoffs, literally in the World Series. They were fresh in the same way the recently successful Pirates had been fresh, only the Royals took it further. The Royals nearly won.
This year, the background was last year. It had to some extent helped to erase the misery previous, so the Royals didn’t feel like a pushover anymore, but the year ended with such a hollow feeling. You can watch Alex Gordon get held at third. You can read that it was smart for Alex Gordon to be held at third. You can believe that it was smart for Alex Gordon to be held at third. But there’s no knowing. There’s no knowing what could’ve happened, what would’ve happened, so there’s no closure. No way to fully come to terms. No way to help the fact that ending like that would just gnaw at you, for months, and beyond.
Sorry, I’m wrong. Not “no way.” It’s not that there was no way to come to accept the crushing defeat. There was one way. There was one way to achieve perfect closure, and the Royals just found it. The demons of uncertainty have been vanquished. The angels of certainty dance in their stead. There’s no more opponent for the Royals to rally past — they’ve accomplished the last of the accomplishments.
Adversity makes triumph feel more triumphant. The Royals overcame the agony of finishing last. And the Royals overcame the agony of finishing second. From that perspective, their story covers several bases, but there’s still so much more, the little details that give the Royals ever more color.
For the fan experience, it’s crucial to have a team with a lot of personality. The Royals just ooze it, from their catcher, from their center fielder, and they’re led by a village idiot who seems to never get anything wrong. There’s a clear sense of the Royals’ team character, and it can easily sweep you into its current. Another element the Royals have had is a lingering air of being an underdog, even though they finished with the AL’s best record. A part of that just carries over from the Royals being godawful for a couple of decades, but it’s also the improbability of so many of their wins. It feels like the Royals should lose a lot more, at the same time as it feels like the Royals might never lose again. This speaks to maybe the most appealing thing about the ballclub.
The 2015 Royals were clutch. That’s it. The book’s closed. They weren’t clutch until they lost Game 7 to Madison Bumgarner. They weren’t clutch until they lost Game 7 to Noah Syndergaard. They were clutch and they won a World Series in which they were clutch in their last game, a game they trailed 2-0 in the top of the ninth. We’re programmed to roll our eyes at the notion. We’ve all learned not to trust these things. And when 2016 rolls around, a lot of us will again be skeptical. But there’s no arguing what the Royals did. They did succeed more often when it mattered most, and while they didn’t do it every time, they did it enough. It became their identity, and the last game of the year was as Royals as it gets.
After any comeback, any player on any team will say his teammates share a never-say-die attitude. And as fans, that kind of nature, that refusal to give up taps into something deep within us. Most teams don’t come back very much. The Royals seemed to prefer it. During Game 5, when the Mets went ahead 2-0, people tweeted that the Royals had the Mets right where they wanted them, and I’m not even sure those were jokes. The Royals made you feel like those deficits just stirred something inside them. Nothing would be too much for them to overcome. These things are almost sickening when you hear them about other teams, but I know what I’ve watched.
Fans love for their teams to be clutch. It’s because it makes the team feel in some way special — sure, maybe the other team has as much or more talent, but this team can dig deep. This team can put forth more effort. Clutchness makes you feel like it’s about more than just raw ability. People like that in baseball. People like that outside of baseball.
During the regular season, you could say the Royals won more games than they were probably supposed to. And during the playoffs, they again won more games than they were probably supposed to. They had the advantage of an incredible late-inning bullpen. They had the benefit of dozens of late-inning hits. And then there were the misplays. The misplays, that have commanded so much of the overall attention.
The Royals might not make it out of the ALDS if not for Carlos Correa fumbling a potential double play. The ALCS brought us Ryan Goins leaving a blooper un-caught. In World Series Game 4, Daniel Murphy committed a crippling error. In World Series Game 5, the mistake was Lucas Duda’s. Duda’s mistake was unbelievable, but for it being completely believable, because it was the Royals, and we’d already seen that.
The temptation is to call it luck. If not for an unlucky Correa error, maybe the Astros kill off the Royals then and there. That doesn’t do it for me, and it doesn’t do it for me because baseball is about more than just pitching and hitting. Defense is a part of it. Royals opponents committed some crucial mistakes. Those mistakes were made because the Royals put the ball in play, or because the Royals acted aggressively on the basepaths. Forget whether Eric Hosmer breaking for home was “smart.” Here’s what happened: Hosmer broke for home, and Duda threw the ball away. Each misplay was a case of the Royals outplaying their opponent. Maybe not because the Royals played well — maybe just because the opponent played worse. Playing well is always relative. Usually, defenders make those plays. Usually, Jeurys Familia throws Alex Gordon a better sinker. One time, he didn’t.
Seemingly a few times too often for coincidence, the Royals had things go their way. It’s fine to be a skeptic. It’s okay if you don’t want to buy what the Royals are peddling. But there’s a reason why, every time we write about clutch, people push back. What a lot of analysis shows us is that, generally speaking, baseball is a game of dice. It’s a game of numbers and matchups and probabilities, something you can run through a simulator. History suggests we shouldn’t believe these Royals were special; we should just think an inordinate number of special things happened.
Here’s the thing: even if that’s true, it isn’t fun. Baseball is a game played between humans, and people would prefer to see the players as human. People want for some players and teams to respond differently to different situations, because the alternative is math, and most people don’t like to watch math as a hobby. You want for some narratives to be true, even if the media picks some stupid ones. You want the game to be influenced by human behavior, beyond just overall human ability. It makes the product more interesting. I can tell you this much — every time I’ve written something about a failure to uncover evidence of clutch performance, I’m kind of disappointed. I want this stuff to be real. I want to believe in the influence of pressure. I want to believe in resolve.
If any team could make you believe it could make good things happen at the right times, it was these 2015 Kansas City Royals. From the team perspective, and from the fan perspective, you couldn’t want anything more. Those Royals fans got everything. They were given a storybook kind of team, with a storybook timeline. Every World Series champion gets some books written about it in the aftermath, but these have a chance to be classics. It’s a book you can’t make bad. It’s the story of the unkillable Royals, who suffered the most agonizing defeat and decided then and there that wasn’t how they’d be remembered.
I’m not a Royals fan. I’m someone who had fun watching the Royals. I don’t get to join in on the celebration. But that’s okay, because I have my own thing to celebrate. The Royals have convinced me there’s so much still left to learn. As stale as baseball analysis can sometimes feel, the Royals have been something so fresh, a reminder there’s more than you can imagine left to figure out. It would’ve been neat if all the Royals criticism we published in the past proved to be valid. This is no less neat.
Congratulations, Royals. You’ve made a lot of people happy.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Great article. Perfect amount of credit to Royals for playing the best while still acknowledging the inherent randomness that comes with a short series. Also you explained clutchness perfectly.
The only thing I’d note is that the Mets winning would have made a whole lot of people happy too 🙁
“the Mets winning would have made a whole lot of people happy too”
But no one outside of New York.
Remember when they were throwing at the Jays and Athletics? Who can forget them also starting fights with the White Sox and Angels for no reason? How about that time their fans tried to ruin the all-star game because they’re perceived as a small market?
Go underdog team that accuses everyone of stealing signs when they lose. I love the Royals if you can’t tell.
I remember these things distinctly. I also remember a take out slide leading up to the A’s debacle and if the Jays can’t handle being pitched inside they should meet up with Noah Syndergard at 60’6″ to settle it. I also recall the white sox clearly instigating the dust up. Are they Royals supposed to take this laying down?! Like their the first team to be targeted due to their new found success?! And as far as the all star game thing goes, get your fanbase motivated and go vote dummy.
Oh, the Royals made a shit-ton of fans.
Anyone who doesn’t love watching them play doesn’t like baseball.
And I don’t know anyone who didn’t think the Royals fans’ ASG shenanigans were awesome.
Wow, the Seahawks have played TWO Super Bowls in Seattle?
How fortunate for them! I hadn’t heard that the NFL had stopped hosting Super Bowls at neutral locations, so that is quite a coincidence.
No, he’s saying that he watched the Super Bowl while he was in Seattle. Not that the game was played in Seattle.
English is a tricky wench
Try “pedantic.” Hint; it has nothing to do with feet.
Royals fans know this isn’t magic but there’s a derisive connotation connected with the word luck when it comes to sports.
It comes across as if the “lucky” players and teams are unskilled rather than skilled enough to take advantage of the things that they luck into.
The Royals are fortunate to be just good enough to be good and lucky enough to have the right things happen in a way that feeds into their skill set can exploit.
It takes a mixture of skill and luck to win 106 games out of 179 and even more of both to win the games that matter most.
The data and raw numbers we discuss here only tell part of the story of baseball. We can analyze what happens on the field mathematically and project future outcomes but we can’t yet analyze the unpredictable nature of human behavior mid game.
As a Giants fan, nothing warms my cockles as much as knowing we won in 2010/12/14, while the Dodgers (who had better teams in at least 2 of those years) didn’t win a thing. And, the reverse is true. I lived the Giants of the 60’s, with Mays/McCovey/Cepeda/Marichal/Perry, and they didn’t win a thing either. One pennant. No rings. Being best but not winning is a slap in the face.
A team for the true fans; not the basement dwellers on this site, but the folks who love grit, hustle, and the American dream.
http://twtwsports.blogspot.com/2015/10/kansas-city-special-twtws-2015-world.html
Ah, written like a true Scotsman.
I guy who doesn’t believe in baseball metrics what so ever posting on Fangraphs for publicity. Yeah that’ll work great, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Rodriguez for MVP? I guess A-Rod get’s your vote because he’s not a Blue Jay or Angel, two of just the many teams the Royals got into bench clearing incidents this year.
I remember the days when Fangraphs use to have a good comment section before it became mainstream.
Grit + hustle = gristle?
Great article. Thank goodness baseball is a human endeavor. When the whole season, your legacy, your teammates, all the hard work is on the line, what goes through your mind: don’t hit it to me or I’m going to rock this world. Everyone is different when it comes to that moment. Even us mortals have that moment. On the 1st tee with everyone watching. In a presentation to the board. Now imagine history and millions looking on. It is way different than the thousands of times you’ve done it previously. It is amazing entertainment.
And completely unpredictable.
This World Series was as much fun as I’ve had watching baseball in years. Two well-matched teams, great pitching, great hitting, lots of crazy shenanigans, a terrific narrative. It was FUN. I was rooting for the Royals, sure, but if we must spend five long dark seasonal-affective months waiting for more baseball, that was an amazing, amazing last week of baseball to savour in memory.
Thanks, Mets. But especially, thanks, Royals. I had a great time.
To anyone who would try and brush off the Royals’ victory based on these lucky moments, I would point out that all the things the Royals got “lucky” on are the things they’ve built their team identity around and have been “lucky” at all year. Their opponents gave up some crucial runs on errors, but the Royals didn’t, because they are an insanely good defensive team. The Royals induced these errors by putting the ball in play more often than other teams (which, eventually, leads to more errors) because they are a team that focuses on making contact and putting the ball in play. The Royals benefited from throwing errors while being aggressive on the basepath, because the Royals are fast as hell and have been aggressive on the basepath all year. Did they catch some lucky breaks? Sure. But they also played a very focused game that intentionally put them in a position to make good on those breaks when they happened. They didn’t blindly stumble into them, they knew that if they had a bunch of fast guys with good contact and worked that angle hard, the errors would happen, and when they DID happen, the team would reap the rewards. Great championship by a great team.
Yes. Fangraphs folks tend to equate epsilon with randomness. But that’s not what it means in under/mis-specified models.
30 for 30 presents…
Mis-Specified Models: The Story of Derek Jeter’s Past Girlfriends
The Royals are an outstanding team, but they caused more than their share of fights this year. I don’t think their character is better than that of any other team, that’s something that only gets said because of their win total.
They really didnt CAUSE any fights. The weird Trout thing that Ventura started was really the only one.
The incident with the White Sox was a result of both teams acting stupid.
The incident with the A’s is pretty self explanatory. They didnt *start* anything there and most teams would have reacted similarly
The incident with the Jays was as much about poor umpiring and the Jays being their over sensitive selves as always (seriously, the Jays take offence to EVERYTHING).
The whole “Royals start fights” narrative is vastly overblown.
They had nine players ejected in a six-game stretch at one point. I didn’t say their character is worse than other teams’, I just don’t see much evidence it’s any better.
I strongly disagree with articles like this which credit the team’s success primarily to intangibles. Since the Royals lack a superstar, many writers assume they’re an average team that somehow willed themselves to victory. The Royals won the World Series because they had six very good hitters in their lineup, deployed the league’s best defense and bullpen, and had all their key players healthy for the playoffs.
I’d counter that having players ejected has nothing to do with character, in the way that Jeff means it.
He’s not saying that they’re a bunch of boy scouts. He’s saying that they, collectively, refuse to lose.
Let me see if I can quantify this:
2015 KC Royals – refusal to lose (scale of 1-100) = 100
2015 NY Mets – refusal to lose = 0.
Do I have it right?
Why on earth would you try to quantify something as explicitly intangible as team makeup?
If you were trying to do so, you could look at the fact that they won seven games this postseason after trailing by multiple runs, breaking the 1996 Yankees’ previous record of five.
In fact, five of those comebacks began in the sixth inning or later.
But, of course, only a dumbass would try to quantify an intangible. Whether it’s by looking at team ejections or team comebacks.
AFAIK The Royals only had 8 players ejected all year.
http://portal.closecallsports.com/historical-data/2015-mlb-ejections
I would be interested to see where you are getting 9 in six games from?
A bad outcome for those that think linear regression is the pinnacle of statistics.
Two variable regression using Excel FTW!
The thing about “luck” is that so many people use it as a code word for “undeserving”.
…and some Royals fans read it as undeserving and take offense when none is intended.
I dont think that is exclusive to Royals fans.
Absolutely agreed!
They won because they played better.
This is one of the most unlikable teams I can remember winning a major championship. They played great, got lucky a bunch of times but deserved to win. Congrats Royals.
Moustakas has a face you want to punch…and then kick a few times.
I might be able to help with that next year.
Move to Canada for a year. You will very quickly grow to hate the Jays more then any team in sports.
Imagine an entire country of Hawk Harrelsons with their own national sports network.
By the way, that “The Royals Are A Sabermetrics Team” article is so condescending and self-serving, it borders on parody.
“They weren’t clutch until they lost Game 7 to Noah Syndergaard.”
Shouldn’t that be Game 3?
The contrast is to being clutch last year till Bumgarner in game 7.
Had they lost this series rather than winning last night, then they would have been clutch till they lost to in game 7. But that didn’t happen, they weren’t clutch till they lost a never going to happen game 7. They were clutch till they won.
I don’t get the disappointment in a lack of evidence for clutch performance, or the lack of evidence that it is predictable. If clutch was predictable, then baseball itself would become too predictable, and that’s not any fun. Clutch is one of those things that’s random and makes watching baseball so great; you never know where or when it will strike.
Eh. I”m with Jeff.
It’s no fun to attribute the Royals’ last two postseasons to random variation.
the Royals won because of HEWCO, CCR, and BSM. The stats I created to replace batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS, which are completely outdated and do not measure every good thing accomplished while playing offense.
This is my favorite parody account since Free_AEC.
(I’m not sure if it’s aware that it’s parody, which is better still.)
Royals were not a good team. BaseRuns tells us this. They just got lucky, pure and simple. Stop trying to pacify Royals’ fans, Sullivan. Seems like the secret to winning the WS is to have the worst team – look at all the past winners – Giants, Cards, and now Royals. Crappiest team wins. In other words, it’s all randomness and luck. The Royals hit 50 bleeders and doinks and GB and strung them together at the right moments, and each series, their opponents assisted them greatly by making boneheaded plays.
well, set aside the play offs and tell me how the Royals won more games than anyone else in the AL over the course of 162 games if they are not a good team? Sometimes numbers miss things, they can’t explain everything, like Tyler Clipperd and Ichiro “breaking” stats models; it’s not that the players are not as good as they appear, it’s that the models can’t capture everything. Life, and baseball, are far too complex to be explained completely by our projection systems. For heaven’s sake we just spent 20 years eating carbs and getting fat because of science, let’s have a little humility and recognize that the projections and numbers can explain a lot, but not everything.
The royal family is not a good team. BaseRuns said. Just got lucky, plain and simple. Stop to reassure fans Royal, Sullivan. It seems that the secret to conquer the worst looking team for all the winners in the past giants, cards and now the royal family. Wins bad group. In other words, that’s all and good luck nasumiinost. The Royal Family of criticism bleeding and Lili, 50 GB and they cocked good times, and each series, their opponents used the help of travel
Have you considered that maybe BaseRuns isn’t perfect? All these “crappy” teams winning championships…
“Not everything that can be counted counts. Not everything that counts can be counted.” -William Bruce Cameron
This is boring. Whenever you are complaining about a baseball thing, ask yourself if your complaint could also be read as someone stomping their feet and pouting while saying “It’s not fair!” If so, then just don’t say it.
They got here after 162 games of beating baseruns, but really after 324 games of beating baseruns. They used the money they got from that to get a stronger squad than they had a year ago. They made bets on out of fashion players that paid off. Their investments were fairly cheap and worked out well.
They got here by not screwing up things that other teams screwed up, which is basically the whole point of playing high-contact baseball. Their closer didn’t suddenly change his mechanics. Their starters didn’t suddenly change their approach. Their infield didn’t boot the easy ones. Their baserunners didn’t give away outs.
They got here by getting 35 innings of 1-run ball from their three best relievers, shutting down all close games. Heck, throw in Young and Madson and even then their five most-used relievers allowed just eight runs in 50.1 innings. That’s roughly the same number of innings in the postseason as the two best of the Mets’ vaunted starters, but ten fewer runs allowed. Ten runs’ difference from your respective pitching strengths in 50 innings. That sounds like a lot to my ears.
They got here with the only complete game, and the only shutout, by a starter from either team in this whole series.
They are good. They may not have been baseball’s best team, but they won because they are a very good team.
They play a fun style. They are enthusiastic. And they are always exciting. You are boring. And no amount of dogging them on every single Fangraphs post related to this title is going to change any of those things.
Well said.
Perfectly said. People are fellating these Royals like they’re they 98 Yankees, the absolute pinnacle of roster construction and achievement as a baseball organization. They weren’t that good, they aren’t going to be that good next year, and they got really absurdly lucky in a lot of ways in a very small amount of time.
Go away. Just go away. You started out mildly interesting, became really irritating, now you’re just tiresome. Take some time off, have a beer or a glass of wine, and rest up till it’s time to draw up next year’s flawed projections.
Here you go…
Really just a great read and well done piece. I’m not a Royals fan (though agree they were a ton of fun to watch), but this article feels to me like an instant classic. I can imagine it being read over the Ken Burns’ Baseball 11th Inning as they cover the 2015 Royals.
Again just a really, really, well written piece. Jeff Sullivan may have singlehandedly driven a stake in the heart of newspaper columns with this one.
“Luck is the residue of design.”
-Branch Rickey
Before you guys start jerking off all over the Royals, let’s not forget that the two main reasons they won are: Familia’s awful put-it-on-a-tee-for-him pitch in Game 1, and Murphy’s historic error in Game 4. If not for those two plays, the Series is probably 3-2, one way or the other right now.
Glad I waited Randy. Thanks
“Before you guys start jerking off all over the Royals”
Yikes, I know you guys are excited, but contain yourself! This is a family website.
WON’T SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDREN!
They were having s-e-x in front of the c-h-i-l-d-r-e-n?!
Sex cauldron? I thought they shut that place down!
Also noteworthy, the Royals bullpen did NOT leave those bad pitches hanging for Mets batters, and the Royals fielders did NOT make those errors. The other team screwed up, because screw ups happen, but give the Royals credit for executing flawlessly when they had to.
OK Shirtless George Brett, what do I owe you again?
But I like watching math as a hobby…
Unless you’re Eno Sarris:
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCAQFjAAahUKEwj8ycPDm_LIAhXLHh4KHX6OANY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hardballtimes.com%2Flearning-the-language-of-the-clubhouse%2F&usg=AFQjCNFLG9p40lZbUa7rPW5eOZhD5TtLkw&sig2=QZa1egwEkzg7G5h-SPpgHw
The guy who just wrote an article praising them?
Stockholm syndrome.
Either that, or he’s a grownup who has gotten over a couple 23 year olds having mocked him after he fucked up at some point in the past 2 and half years.
Clutch or not, those plays happened. Say that all those clutch plays happen in the 3-5th innings instead of 8-12. Still wins the ballgame, just with less “fun factor.”
They do seem to have an uncanny ability to get past the relievers, though.
I think a not-insignificant part of it is that most playoff teams’ defenses aren’t used to seeing this much contact against the back-end of their bullpen.
It gets to the 8th inning and the last six months have conditioned them to expect a couple Ks and popups, but the Royals are hitting hard grounders and line drives.
Is it sheer luck Royals made it to the World Series two years in a row? That’s not luck, it’s called playing damn good. Case closed. Anyone that says this is luck is a sore loser or a liar.
Last year @RobNeyer wrote a great piece on whether Gordon had a legitimate shot at scoring to tie Game 7 against the Giants: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/were-we-wrong-about-gordon-s-shot-at-scoring-110214
I commented then that the Royals organization needed to be more aggressive from the hitters to the coaches to the managers. From my post last year, “the logical choice the Royals have is to send Gordon. If you make a move and the other team executes, that’s baseball. But you should always give your team the best chance to win.”
It was amazing watching the Royals play so aggressively this post season, taking advantage of their athleticism. Jirschele constantly put up the go sign every day, paying huge dividends: Cain (ALCS clincher), Hosmer (WS clincher). You could tell the entire organization was on the same page about forcing their competitors to make the play. Congrats to the Royals.