The 2016 Single-Game Pitching Belt: Scherzer vs. Velasquez

A few weeks back, we matched up three of the most dominant pitching performances from April, utilizing granular ball-in-play data, to determine which of Vince Velasquez, Jaime Garcia or Jake Arrieta had the best day. Velasquez won that time around, and with Max Scherzer recently authoring a 20-strikeout, no-walk complete game shutout over the Tigers, we have a worthy contender for the single-game pitching championship belt.

There’s one rule for entry into this competition: you had to finish what you started. Only complete games apply. Then we simply look at every batted ball allowed, and first calculate each pitcher’s single-game Adjusted Contact Score based on exit speed and angle data. Then, we add back the Ks and BBs, and calculate each pitcher’s single-game “tru” ERA-. With these two performances, we don’t need to worry about adding back any BBs.

Velasquez vs. Scherzer – Exit Speed/Angle Data

			AVG ALL	AVG FLY	AVG LD	AVG GB	AVG VERT
Velasquez	vs. SD	14-Apr	88.1	89.1	87.2	87.4	20.8
Scherzer	vs. DET	11-May	86.6	93.1	93.5	56.8	19.1
MLB Avg.	Thru	18-May	89.4	90.0	93.5	87.4	11.0

Both of these pitchers followed similar paths in their dominant outings. Besides striking out 36 and walking none between them, both pitchers allowed very high average exit angles, and very few grounders. Only extreme fly-ball/pop-up pitchers sustain average exit angles near 20 over a full season, the Chris Youngs and Jered Weavers of this world.

Though Scherzer allowed a low overall average exit velocity (86.6 mph, as compared to Velasquez’ mark of 88.1 mph), a closer look tilts the scales in the Philly right-hander’s favor. Scherzer’s average exit speed is greatly helped, or even skewed, by the two grounders he did allow, two very weak nubbers. His average fly and liner exit speeds are higher than average, and include a 105-plus mph fly-ball homer by J.D. Martinez, a 100-plus mph double by Justin Upton, and a 100-plus line-drive single by Victor Martinez. He also allowed a very lucky 90-plus MPH homer to Jose Iglesias, but that one isn’t held against him to any great extent using this method.

On the other hand, Velasquez allowed only a single 100-mph batted ball in his outing, a harmless ground out off of the bat of Melvin Upton Jr. He allowed four fly balls, and all of them were within the “donut hole” range of 75-95 mph, within which hitters bat around .100 with little power. Those few miles per hour between the two pitchers’ average fly-ball velocities is the difference between a can of corn and a ball rattling off of the fence or going over it.

From a frequency perspective, there isn’t much to separate the two. Scherzer allowed one fewer line drive, but two more fly balls. Scherzer allowed more fly balls and liners in the high exit velocity danger zone, so the early edge would appear to go in Velasquez’ favor. Let’s compare the outings by calculating Adjusted Contact Scores and “tru” ERAs, crediting each batted ball with the MLB average production for its speed/angle “bucket,” and then comparing to the MLB average run environment thus far in 2016. In each category, league average is represented by 100.

Single-Outing Adjusted Contact Score/”Tru” ERA

			FLY	LD	GB	ADJ C	TRU
Velasquez	vs. SD	14-Apr	15	73	78	51	14
Scherzer	vs. DET	11-May	166	103	20	155	31

The first three columns represent Adjusted Contact Scores for the major BIP types; the fourth, the Average Contact Score for all BIP combined; and the last, the “tru” ERA for each performance with all the K and BB added back.

Ultimately, this didn’t turn out to be that much of a contest. Velasquez won the April competition with a 15 “tru” ERA-, bettering Garcia’s 28 and Arrieta’s 47. Since then, MLB hitters have begun to fare better on fly balls, so Velasquez’ single-game mark has trickled down to 14. Not only did he strike out 16 Padres and walk none, he throttled all types of contact, posting Adjusted Contact Scores of 15, 73 and 78 on fly balls, liners and grounders, respectively, with an overall Adjusted Contact Score of 51.

That 15 score on fly balls is not a misprint; the batted balls allowed by Velasquez “should have” yielded a .248 AVG and .369 SLG if MLB average production were derived from each. That’s as close to a perfect pitching performance as we’ve seen this season. Tons of Ks, no walks, and if you’re going to allow the ball to be hit in the air, make it a can of corn.

Scherzer? His game is a cartoonish exaggeration of all of his (many) strengths and (few) weaknesses. Strike out tons of hitters, even more than Velasquez, and walk none. He has never been a particularly effective manager of contact, however, despite a strong pop-up tendency. He has always allowed lusty fly-ball contact, and does so even in his finest moments.

Hitters “should have” batted .368 AVG-1.164 SLG on the fly balls actually allowed by Scherzer in this one start, for a much worse than average 166 Adjusted Contact Score. On all BIP allowed, his Adjusted Contact Score is a very similar 155. Now when you strike out 20, and walk none, your margin for error with regard to batted-ball authority is quite extreme. Scherzer used up some of this margin, allowing a couple of long balls, and narrowly prevailing by a 3-2 margin on this day.

Even with the allowance of such hard contact, Scherzer’s single-game “tru” ERA- is an exceptional 31; great, but not enough to take the belt away from Velasquez, or even outdistance April’s runner-up, the Cards’ Garcia.

Since context is such an important part of what we do on these pages, we can’t ignore the fact that Scherzer did the work we are examining against his former teammates from Detroit, a much stronger offense than the one Velasquez faced. If this were a closer call, I might be inclined to give the decision to Scherzer.

Instead, Velasquez keeps the belt. Next time up, we’ll introduce another foe, and match up his best outing — or outings — against the young Phil.