The 2022 Team Leader Leavers
Who was the Nationals’ best player in 2022? Before you try to answer, I should acknowledge that this is not a fair question to ask. For starters, it’s a trick question. More importantly, you haven’t been watching the Nationals. You’ve been doing the best you can to avoid even thinking about the Nationals. That’s called self-care, and I commend you for it. Even the Nationals’ general manager called it “a daily grind to come here and lose baseball games.” He also called trading Juan Soto a “courageous move by ownership,” so maybe don’t listen to him.
Regardless, go ahead and give it a shot! Keibert Ruiz would be a reasonable guess. The promising young catcher posted 1.7 WAR this season. You could also be forgiven for going with Joey Meneses, who put up 1.5 WAR in just 228 plate appearances since his promotion in August.
A look at the Combined WAR Leaderboards, however, reveals the true answer:
| # | Name | PA | IP | Bat WAR | Pit WAR | Total WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto | 436 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||
| 2 | Josh Bell | 437 | 2.5 | 2.5 | ||
| 3 | Keibert Ruiz | 433 | 1.7 | 1.7 | ||
| 4 | Joey Meneses | 228 | 1.5 | 1.5 | ||
| 5 | Ildemaro Vargas | 185 | 1 | 1.3 | 0 | 1.3 |
Soto, who got traded to San Diego midway through the least Juan Soto year of his career, has still been the most valuable contributor to the withered husk of the 2022 Nationals. Bell, who also got sent to the Padres, is second at 2.5 WAR, well above both Ruiz and Meneses, though his struggles in San Diego have brought his WAR back down to an even 2.0 for the season. On the pitching side, the Nationals’ most valuable arm is still on the team, but that’s mostly because they didn’t have anyone worth trading. Reliever Hunter Harvey led the staff with 1.0 WAR in 37.1 innings; there isn’t a single starter on the roster with an ERA under 4.25 or a FIP under 4.5.
Look too closely at the Washington leaderboard and you start asking existential questions: Why am I doing this to myself? Where are the Andrew Stevensons of yesteryear? What is an Alex Call?
I’m not saying all this to just pick on the Nationals. Plenty of teams find themselves in this situation; they just happen to be the best example by virtue of being the worst team in the league. But which other teams are flying into the offseason in the missing man formation?
| # | Name | PA | IP | Bat WAR | Pit WAR | Total WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Drury | 385 | 2.6 | 2.6 | ||
| 2 | Tyler Mahle | 104.1 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 85 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| 4 | Nick Lodolo | 103.1 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| 5 | Hunter Greene | 125.2 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
The Reds are five games ahead of the Nationals in the standings, and they’ve been putting Joey Votto into the broadcast booth to give fans a (sometimes pretty weird) reason to tune in. All the same, you have to go down to the fourth name on their combined WAR leaderboard to find someone who still plays in Cincinnati. Drury, who signed a one-year deal in March, got traded to San Diego in the summer and, like so many players featured in this article, immediately started playing worse. He posted a 131 wRC+ in 91 games with the Reds and is currently at a 111 wRC+ with the Padres. Mahle found himself in Minnesota (and on the injured list). At least Castillo gets to pitch in the postseason with the Mariners.
José Quintana was Pittsburgh’s best pitcher this year, leading the staff with 2.2 WAR over 103 innings. Then he got traded the Cardinals and found out what devil magic can do to for your ERA.
| Team | IP | HR/9 | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | 103 | 0.6 | 20.6% | 7.2% | .307 | 3.50 | 3.23 | 3.78 |
| Cardinals | 62.2 | 0.1 | 19.4% | 6.5% | .293 | 2.01 | 2.6 | 3.62 |
| Total | 165.2 | 0.43 | 20.2% | 6.90% | .302 | 2.93 | 2.99 | 3.72 |
Quintana’s strong finish in St. Louis means that he’ll head into the postseason, and into free agency, with his first 4-win season since 2017.
The A’s traded Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino to the Yankees on August 1. The former finishes the season as Oakland’s best pitcher but logged a 6.35 ERA with the Yankees before ending up on the IL. Trivino, on the other hand, went from a 6.47 ERA with the A’s to a 1.74 ERA with the Yankees and figures to see some important innings in the playoffs.
Andrew Benintendi was worth 10 runs on offense for the Royals, edging out Vinnie Pasquantino for the team lead. Kansas City turned his expiring contract and career-best 124 wRC+ into three young pitchers, and he cooled off some with the Yankees before breaking his stupid hamate bone, but with 2.8 WAR and a 122 wRC+, he put in the second-most productive season of his career.
Four teams traded their closers at the deadline, ensuring that they’d be led in saves by a lost soul. For Raisel Iglesias, salvation came the moment he shed his Angel wings.
| Team | IP | HR/9 | K% | BB% | AVG | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 35.2 | 1.30 | 32.9% | 6.2% | .216 | .293 | 66.7% | 4.04 | 3.17 | 3.04 |
| Braves | 26.1 | 0.00 | 30.0% | 5.0% | .185 | .266 | 91.3% | 0.34 | 1.51 | 2.92 |
| Total | 62.0 | 0.73 | 31.7% | 5.7% | .201 | .281 | 76.8% | 2.47 | 2.46 | 2.99 |
Iglesias’ transfiguration coincides with increased use of his changeup and decreased use of his slider, but his underlying numbers are otherwise about the same. It seems like the real miracle was deciding to stop giving up home runs altogether.
Other closers were not so lucky. David Robertson watched his ERA climb from 2.23 with the Cubs to a still very good 2.70 with the Phillies. Then there is the strange, well–documented case of Josh Hader and Taylor Rogers. Since Jay Jaffe went to all the trouble of making this table back in August, I’ll just give it a quick update:
| Hader | IP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | xwOBA | ERA | FIP | Sv | Blown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thru June | 24.2 | 45.1% | 7.7% | 0.73 | .195 | .201 | 1.09 | 1.7 | 24 | 1 |
| July | 9.1 | 36.0% | 10.0% | 4.82 | .524 | .436 | 12.54 | 8.16 | 5 | 1 |
| August | 5.2 | 23.1% | 17.9% | 1.59 | .600 | .390 | 23.14 | 6.99 | 1 | 1 |
| Sept/Oct | 10.1 | 33.3% | 5.1% | 0.00 | .174 | .220 | 0.87 | 1.46 | 6 | 1 |
| Total | 50 | 37.0% | 9.6% | 1.86 | .333 | .292 | 5.22 | 3.45 | 36 | 4 |
| Rogers | IP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | xwOBA | ERA | FIP | Sv | Blown |
| Thru June | 31.2 | 29.8% | 5.6% | 0.28 | .260 | .283 | 2.84 | 2.43 | 22 | 4 |
| July | 9.2 | 22.0% | 4.0% | 0.00 | .486 | .372 | 9.31 | 2.09 | 6 | 3 |
| August | 11.1 | 37.0% | 4.3% | 1.59 | .292 | .274 | 3.97 | 3.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Sept/Oct | 11.2 | 35.2% | 13.0% | 3.09 | .333 | .365 | 6.94 | 6.88 | 2 | 3 |
| Total | 64.1 | 30.7% | 6.6% | 0.98 | .327 | .314 | 4.76 | 3.31 | 31 | 10 |
It looks like Hader is finally on the right track, but Rogers has struggled even more in the past month. The 31-year-old will be a free agent at the end of the season; hopefully his performance early in the year and Padres-best 28 saves will be enough to attract some suitors.
Aside from the take-a-closer, leave-a-closer exchange between the Brewers and Padres, the theme running through these trades is that more teams than ever are in everything must go mode. The restructuring of the draft under the new CBA hasn’t yet deterred anyone from racing to the bottom; teams seem happy to stockpile prospects and save a whole lot of money. Trading Soto may be courageous, but it’s also very cold, and a leaderboard full of ghosts is the end result of that process.
The good news is that fans of these teams have at least something to enjoy right now. Reds fans have Votto in the booth and Greene on the mound, Pirates fans can marvel at the exploits of Oneil Cruz, and Nationals fans have Meneses in all of his resplendent glory. Still, I imagine that they’d all rather have a decent team instead of a constant reminder of better days and better players.
Davy Andrews is a Brooklyn-based musician and a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @davyandrewsdavy.bsky.social.
The Braves new they were picking up a high quality pitcher in Raisel Iglesias. But, I think it safe to say, he has exceeded everyone’s regular season expectations during his stay in Atlanta.
Makes you wonder where the switch in pitch usage came from. Iglesias, the new coach, or the new catcher(s)?
That is one *big* change.
Reminds me of Chris Martin in LA (speaking of which, ppl panning the LAD bullpen have perhaps not been watching the LAD bullpen)
A conventional takeaway (SSS caveats, etc) from his peripherals would be he’s taking a little off (fewer K and BB), pitching lower in the zone, getting a lot more GB, and enjoying a fair amount of luck given how few (ie no) FB turned into HR w the Braves—but even with ordinary luck he’d still have had a superb stretch with Atlanta. In any case, in getting him the Braves FO showed once again how just spending more money is unlikely to win the Mets anything except obscure routes to the postseason. They’ll have to spend more *and* find a front office worthy of the name.
Of course the restructuring of the draft hasn’t deterred anyone. With only a few exceptions, teams do not “tank” in MLB. They cut costs and they move current assets for future assets, but draft prospects are so uncertain and have such a long developmental runway in baseball that almost* no one has the stomach for losing long enough to make a strategy like that viable. Even getting guys in A-ball is a safer route than just hoping you can make it through the draft.
—
*Oh hey Jeff Luhnow, almost didn’t see you there
Not tanking, no. Bad teams don’t actually get worse for the sake of the draft or just to save money. (Not even Cleveland or Pittsburgh.)
What it is is a better understanding of competitive windows, organizational depth, and contract lengths.
It’s like tbe Rangers: they went all in this year and still ended up 30 games behind. Without much of a chance next yrar, either: That’s a lot to make up in one year, especially when you consider Houston is actually a fairly young team. They’re not likely to implode next year.
Last to first cases are rare and are likely to remain so. Nothing in tbe game has changed the basic dynamics of team building and the biggest reason for teams falling by the wayside is lack of depth which is why after a “bad” team cuts bait, what remains is underwhelming, especially these days that most teams appreciate the economic value of good prospects. (I doubt we’ll ever see another Smoltz for Alexander trade any time soon.)
This is one area where the sports media lags team managers, by and by.
The media goes year by year whereas modern GMs are managing the entire organization with a 3-5 year horizon. The Soto deal being the clearest example: he had two years of team control but he wouldn’t do the organization much good because they were going to be bad even with him whereas they now have a *chance* to be decent sooner than with him.
The contrast being the Angels, with arguably the two best players of tbe last ten years with nothing to show for it.
It must be a voodoo doll or some such with the Angels because this year the pitching was good. Not 100 wins good but 85 to 90 wins good. And it looks to stay that way or get better. But the offense completely fell apart thanks to injuries, underperformance, and a lack of depth. They just can’t seem to catch any good luck at all year in and year out. On paper this team looks like a playoff team if they could just get 600+ PA from Trout, Rendon, Fletcher, SS, and the 20-21 version of Walsh to help Ohtani and Ward. Who both had great seasons.
The Raisel Iglesias trade was so embarrassing for the Angels. I guess it doesn’t matter now that Moreno is selling the team, since Ohtani probably wouldn’t want to sign a mega contract with the franchise in flux anyway. But punting not just on 2022 but also 2023 must have been enormously frustrating for everyone left on the roster, including him.
The only question is whether Moreno is going to bow to reality and trade Ohtani now or foist the decision on the next owner.
Team sales rarely go fast so unless he has a buyer within the next month, the new guy won’t have meaningful input until ’24.
Ditto for the Nationals.
(Sorry fans!)
Interesting take for this post is that Joey Meneses and Ildemaro Vargas both had a greater WAR/PA than Juan Soto.
Also, I would take Greene right now for the best WAR in 2023 among players on the Reds list above.
WAR/PA is a bad stat. A defensive replacement kind of player could have infinite WAR/PA thanks to accumulating defensive value without ever seeing the plate. And the rate stat you seem to be looking for already exists in the form of wOBA (Meneses’ season wOBA of .395 is comparable to Soto’s pre-trade .390, but Vargas’ .308 significantly trails even Soto’s post-trade .349, though neither of those guys has anything close to the number of PA generally accepted as necessary to get a sense of their true talent at the plate.)
Vargas hit good, but he got most of his value by being an outstanding gloveman at third base.
You left one out! Five teams traded their closers at the deadline, and the fifth fits right in with the themes of the article. Jorge Lopez finishes as the Orioles’ leader in saves (four ahead of Felix Bautista) and was also much worse as a Twin than he was as an Oriole.
Pshaw! Both Meneses and Vargas have been more valuable, per PA, than either Bell or Soto.
It was always weird that in Soto the consensus was that you ought to feel lucky to be the team to pay half a billion dollars for the remaining baseball life of a 5-6 win DH. Perhaps his 2022 season will wake up a few GMs? —btw, has anyone figured out why Albert suddenly returned to life in 2022? Is the Angels’ mojo really that awful, or did someone advise him to alter his stance or weight shift (away from his belly, perhaps–he does look thinner than previously)?
Steroid rumors follow
Puljols whenever he is a Cardinal.
It’s like how the best Yankee reliever this year is Mike King, who has been injured for months.