The 2024 Projection Gainers – Pitchers

The full midseason run of the ZiPS projections have been completed, and while the standings updates are always a lot of fun, they tend to move in a similar direction to our FanGraphs standings, so they’re usually not the most shocking. What I find the most interesting are the player projections — not even the numbers for the rest of the season (the in-season model is simpler, but improvements in the full model are naturally going to be incremental), but the ones that look toward 2024 and beyond.

After looking at the hitter gainers and decliners, today, we’re onto the pitchers with the largest increases in projected 2024 WAR since my original projections to dig a little into what changed for each player. Sometimes it’s performance, sometimes it’s health, sometimes it’s a change in position. Let’s jump straight into the names, since I assume everyone reading this knows that ZiPS isn’t a cheeseburger or a hoodie.

1. Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
2024 WAR: 2.4 preseason, 3.6 midseason (+1.20)
2024 ERA: 3.88 preseason, 3.39 midseason (-0.49)
2024 FIP: 3.44 preseason, 3.11 midseason (-0.33)

If 3.6 WAR for 2024 sounds disappointing, remember that ZiPS takes a suspicious view of any pitcher’s health given the rate of bad things happening to elbows and shoulders. Gausman’s BABIP is always likely to remain on the high side for a top pitcher, but his strikeout rate of nearly 12 per nine and his continued success at keeping the ball in the park means he’s probably at his peak right now. I still like to imagine how good he’d be if he could develop a third pitch that was a real weapon rather than something occasionally thrown in particular situations, but given his success with just the fastball and the splitter, I don’t want to be too greedy.

2. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
2024 WAR: 1.8 preseason, 3.0 midseason (+1.18)
2024 ERA: 4.01 preseason, 3.60 midseason (-0.41)(
2024 FIP: 3.72 preseason, 3.51 midseason (-0.21)

I’d yell “pitcher homers allowed is a volatile stat!” even more than I already do, but then I’d reach the point where friends and family would feel the need to stage an intervention. Twenty-one homers in 109 1/3 innings was a lot of round-trippers last year, but like those in recent years who had homer totals out of sync with the advanced data (Corbin Burnes and Andrew Heaney are two), it was a mirage. Similarly, Eovaldi is not going to be as stingy with dingers as he’s been this year, either. He has been a lot healthier this year, too, and is on track to throw his most innings in nearly a decade.

3. Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
2024 WAR: 1.9 preseason, 2.9 midseason (+0.99)
2024 ERA: 3.62 preseason, 3.29 midseason (-0.33)
2024 FIP: 3.74 preseason, 3.43 midseason (-0.31)

Steele is now comfortably in the top 30 in 2024 projections, meaning that you ought to consider him a borderline ace now. While you don’t like to see the strikeout rate dip, as it has in 2023, ZiPS thinks that’s an illusion; his swinging-strike rate and out-of-zone swing rates have both gone up from 2022. The Cubs would be smart to push the idea of an extension before Steele hits arbitration, as keeping him might quickly become an expensive proposition.

4. Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 WAR: 1.5 preseason, 2.4 midseason (+0.96)
2024 ERA: 4.40 preseason, 4.06 midseason (-0.34)
2024 FIP: 3.94 preseason, 3.77 midseason (-0.17)

If I had done this run after May, Keller would have easily taken the top spot. But there’s been a bit of a dip in velocity over the last couple months, and his strikeout rate has dropped off the table, to the point at which ZiPS now worries that there’s something very wrong with him. He’s certainly been hit quite hard in a few starts lately. That being said, his first couple of months were so good that even with the additional concerns, he still projects better next year than he did back in March.

5. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
2024 WAR: 3.6 preseason, 4.5 midseason (+0.96)
2024 ERA: 3.32 preseason, 3.17 midseason (-0.15)
2024 FIP: 3.32 preseason, 3.20 midseason (-0.03)

Not much has really changed for Webb — ZiPS had already expected his strikeout rate to recover from last year’s dropoff — except that ZiPS is now a lot more confident that he will throw a lot of innings if healthy: 190 in 2024, second in baseball to the only pitcher projected to get to 200, Sandy Alcantara. Good thing the Giants already extended him.

6. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds
2024 WAR: 1.4 preseason, 2.3 midseason (+0.89)
2024 ERA: 4.44 preseason, 4.07 midseason (-0.37)
2024 FIP: 4.36 preseason, 4.05 midseason (-0.41)

While ZiPS isn’t optimistic that Abbott is as good as the 2.45 ERA he’s displayed this year (the 4.35 FIP should send a red flag even without a fancy-pants projection system), it’s more optimistic that he’ll be a solid mid-rotation candidate for the Reds next year. Considering better things are expected for most of the Reds’ rotation, that’s not so bad.

7. Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins
2024 WAR: 1.6 preseason, 2.5 midseason (+0.89)
2024 ERA: 3.99 preseason, 3.64 midseason (-0.35)
2024 FIP: 4.01 preseason, 3.60 midseason (-0.41)

Gray is having a breakout season; amusingly, it’s arguably the fourth one of his career (as a rookie in 2013, post-injury in Oakland, Cincinnati after his time in New York, this one). This time, he’s added a cutter to his arsenal and has been at his best health for a long time. And fortunately for Gray, he’s having an awesome and healthy season as he approaches free agency; the last time he signed an extension, it was coming off an unimpressive year for the Yankees, and he didn’t have much leverage. The Twins ought to be talking with Gray and opening up the wallet, because their pitching has been their saving grace this year.

8. Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays
2024 WAR: 1.7 preseason, 2.6 midseason (+0.87)
2024 ERA: 3.54 preseason, 3.40 midseason (-0.14)
2024 FIP: 3.57 preseason, 3.32 midseason (-0.25)

Eflin was an old pick on my breakout list, back before the 2021 season, but he missed significant time with a couple of knee injuries, so some of the projection improvement is simply due to a better health outlook. But he’s also improved as a pitcher, and with the Rays, he’s simplified his repertoire considerably, trimming it down to mostly fastball, cutter, and curveball. Among qualifiers, only George Kirby has a lower BB/9 rate this season, and Eflin’s strikeout rate is more than respectable for a control pitcher.

9. Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins
2024 WAR: 1.6 preseason, 2.4 midseason (+0.85)
2024 ERA: 4.00 preseason, 3.55 midseason (-0.45)
2024 FIP: 3.81 preseason, 3.64 midseason (-0.16)

Pérez might crush this projection given his raw talent, but ZiPS is going to be cautious when it comes to any pitcher this young without a ton of experience in the high minors/majors. What’s most impressive about Pérez is his ceiling rather than his straight-up projection; he’s one of the young pitchers with the best chance of establishing himself in the Cy Young contender tier of pitchers. Another reason for the relatively tame WAR projection is that the Marlins are being cautious with his workload and have sent him down to Double-A Pensacola in an attempt to limit it. Normally, I’d be highly suspicious that they were playing clock games, but they already have the “bonus season” locked in, so I’m in the camp that this is legitimate.

10. Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
2024 WAR: 1.9 preseason, 2.7 midseason (+0.84)
2024 ERA: 3.91 preseason, 3.42 midseason (-0.49)
2024 FIP: 3.57 preseason, 3.25 midseason (-0.33)

Cobb’s comeback hit its stride back in 2021 with the Angels, but he’s now maintained it long enough that ZiPS fully believes that he and his splitter are back and has at least some expectation of a mostly healthy season. His upside is one of the reasons that ZiPS was so optimistic about the Giants coming into the season; the computer saw them only a few games behind the Dodgers and Padres (oops).

I do wonder if Cobb could squeeze out a bit more performance with more aggressive knuckle-curve usage. It’s become his biggest swing-and-miss pitch, but even if he’s using it to whiff batters more often than in the past, he’s still clearly most comfortable with just chucking it first pitch and daring batters to hit a 0–0 curve, in contrast to a pitcher like Clayton Kershaw who mostly throws his curve later in the count when he’s ahead.