The AL MVP Battle Could Come Down to Philosophy
With less than a week to go in the regular season, writers will soon vote on end-of-season awards, and the shortened season makes for some very tight races. That’s certainly true for American League MVP. Through play on Sunday, here’s the WAR Leaderboard for American League position players:
| Name | PA | HR | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Ramírez | 229 | 16 | 156 | 2.6 | 18.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| José Abreu | 236 | 18 | 178 | 0.5 | 23.1 | -5.8 | 2.7 |
| Anthony Rendon | 218 | 9 | 154 | 0.8 | 15.3 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Tim Anderson | 195 | 10 | 168 | 0.8 | 17.2 | -0.4 | 2.5 |
| Mike Trout | 227 | 16 | 167 | 1.1 | 19.8 | -2.9 | 2.5 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 188 | 10 | 181 | 0.5 | 19.3 | -0.7 | 2.3 |
| Brandon Lowe | 206 | 13 | 153 | 2.4 | 15.8 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Nelson Cruz | 201 | 16 | 172 | -0.8 | 17.1 | -5.3 | 2.0 |
| Kyle Lewis | 222 | 11 | 140 | 1.5 | 12.4 | -0.8 | 1.9 |
| Teoscar Hernández | 185 | 16 | 164 | 0.8 | 15.4 | -1 | 1.9 |
| Luke Voit | 208 | 21 | 161 | 1.2 | 16.7 | -3.6 | 1.8 |
| Alex Verdugo | 196 | 6 | 140 | 0.8 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| David Fletcher | 206 | 3 | 124 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Francisco Lindor | 240 | 8 | 106 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 1.7 |
| Luis Robert | 207 | 11 | 105 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 |
| Eloy Jiménez | 215 | 14 | 143 | 0 | 11.3 | -4.7 | 1.6 |
That’s a fine list of players, to be sure, but it doesn’t include one of the top players by AL WAR at the moment. Shane Bieber has made 11 starts and pitched 72.1 innings good for a 2.13 FIP, 1.74 FIP, and 2.9 WAR. He’s struck out 41% of batters, given up three runs in three starts, two runs in two starts, one run in one start, and no runs in five starts. He pitched at least six innings in every start but one, when he threw five frames against the Brewers on September 6, striking out 10 against one walk, giving up a single run. Given Bieber’s runs’ allowed, there is no real difference between his FanGraphs’ WAR and his mark at Baseball-Reference. He also leads the league in xwOBA over at Baseball Savant.
When assessing the National League MVP race, I found it helpful to break the season down into smaller chunks and see how the race had evolved over time. We’ll do the same thing here, but we’ll use wider swaths of the season and more than double the potential candidates. We’ll look at the top seven players from above and break the season that has been played so far down into thirds, with 20-day segments. First, here are the first 20 days of the season, with a familiar face atop the list:
| Name | PA | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 65 | 181 | 0.4 | 6.9 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 66 | 173 | 0 | 5.9 | -0.3 | 0.7 |
| Brandon Lowe | 65 | 155 | 0.6 | 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| José Ramírez | 78 | 118 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Anthony Rendon | 65 | 132 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Tim Anderson | 36 | 144 | 0.1 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 |
| José Abreu | 79 | 108 | 0.2 | 1 | -2 | 0.2 |
While Mike Trout wasn’t the AL WAR leader for position players at this point in time (Kyle Lewis was), of the players who remained in the MVP mix, he ended up on top for this stretch. DJ LeMahieu and Brandon Lowe started off very strongly with the bat, while José Ramírez and Anthony Rendon had a more balanced approach to providing value. Tim Anderson missed 10 games with a groin strain while José Abreu opened the season with a fairly average stretch. Shane Bieber put up 0.9 WAR during this period. Here’s how those players finished August:
| Name | PA | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Abreu | 74 | 232 | 0.2 | 12.2 | -1.9 | 1.3 |
| Anthony Rendon | 73 | 188 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Tim Anderson | 77 | 172 | 0.9 | 7.7 | -0.2 | 1.1 |
| Brandon Lowe | 75 | 177 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 1 |
| José Ramírez | 81 | 118 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Mike Trout | 80 | 125 | 0.3 | 2.7 | -1 | 0.5 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 29 | 161 | 0.2 | 2.4 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
Now, we see the pair of White Sox heating up, with Abreu putting up some monster numbers and Anderson hitting incredibly well, too. Rendon was also heating up, and Ramírez was still chugging along, providing value in every aspect of the game. Trout, meanwhile, only played at an average All-Star level instead of like Mike Trout, while LeMahieu missed a bunch of time with a left thumb sprain. Bieber put up 1.5 WAR with a 0.86 FIP as well as a 0.72 ERA. Now, for the September numbers:
| Name | PA | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Ramírez | 70 | 244 | 0 | 12.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 93 | 193 | 0.4 | 11 | -0.4 | 1.3 |
| Mike Trout | 82 | 195 | 0.5 | 10.1 | -1 | 1.2 |
| José Abreu | 83 | 196 | 0.2 | 10 | -2.1 | 1.1 |
| Tim Anderson | 82 | 175 | -0.2 | 7.4 | -0.2 | 1.1 |
| Anthony Rendon | 80 | 141 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Brandon Lowe | 66 | 124 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Ramírez’s balanced attack kept him in the race, but his bat has been great over the last three weeks. LeMahieu has recovered from his injury. Trout has played like Trout. Abreu and Anderson continue their surge. Rendon has been very good, while Lowe has played like an All-Star. Bieber, in part due to making only three starts during this period, put up a very good 0.6 WAR, though not quite as good as the rest of his season.
Bieber is likely to get just one more start this season (tomorrow’s), to make his case for MVP. If he pitches well, he’s likely to end the season as the AL WAR leader. That might be enough for many voters to put him atop the ballot for MVP, but many will still lean toward a position player. While each player’s WAR differs — in some cases by a lot, with Ramírez nearly a full win ahead of Lowe and LeMahieu — going past WAR and looking at a few more numbers probably makes sense. First, let’s take a quick look at Statcast’s xwOBA to see how luck on batted balls might have played a role. If we were replace wOBA with xwOBA, the WAR might look roughly like this:
| Name | WAR | PA | wRC+ | wOBA | xwOBA | Difference | Rough ADJ xWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rendon | 2.6 | 218 | 154 | .386 | .403 | -.017 | 2.9 |
| Mike Trout | 2.5 | 227 | 167 | .404 | .422 | -.018 | 2.8 |
| José Ramírez | 3.0 | 229 | 156 | .399 | .374 | .025 | 2.6 |
| José Abreu | 2.7 | 236 | 178 | .420 | .408 | .012 | 2.5 |
| Brandon Lowe | 2.2 | 206 | 153 | .383 | .393 | -.010 | 2.4 |
| Tim Anderson | 2.5 | 195 | 168 | .407 | .397 | .010 | 2.3 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 2.3 | 188 | 181 | .428 | .387 | .041 | 1.7 |
The estimates are just rough projections before last night’s games, but we see two Angels atop the list. Whether it is the ballpark or spray angle or just luck, it certainly looks like Ramírez and LeMahieu have benefited while the Angels have suffered a bit. This isn’t a be-all, end-all, but it is a helpful tool. On defense, we have the bat-first Abreu losing a few runs due to playing first base, but those cuts still put him right in the middle of the conversation. The rest all play defensive positions that tend to add value, and the defensive metrics put them all within six runs of each other, with the biggest difference spanning Rendon (+3) and Trout’s (-3) numbers with Ramírez, Lowe, Anderson, and LeMahieu all within three runs of each other.
Absent an incredible final week that eliminates any doubts about who the MVP ought to be, there are a bunch of philosophical choices that voters will have to make. How much does it matter that Anderson and LeMahieu missed time? If we look at the White Sox candidates, Anderson has been the better player when he’s played, but Abreu has 20% more playing time and that’s tough to ignore. LeMahieu’s case is similar to Anderson’s given the time missed from injury.
If you want to know how the results on the field turned into wins, Lowe is at the top of the heap with 2.35 Win Probability Added. If you ascribe to best player on the best team for MVP philosophy, that’s Brandon Lowe, too. How much one should weigh WPA is up for considerable debate. For one thing, it is somewhat random and generally doesn’t translate from year to year beyond a player’s standard hitting numbers. For another, it is a context driven stat made possible by your teammates. It isn’t RBI, but having teammates getting on in front of you matters, as does having a pitching staff that keeps you in games and a group of position players who don’t blow out the opposition so that plate appearances matter more. If we don’t hold Trout and Rendon being on a bad team against them (we shouldn’t), we probably shouldn’t provide too much extra attention to a stat like WPA.
There’s a decent possibility that the two best players in the AL this year are playing on a 24-31 Angels team, which some will opt to hold against them. It doesn’t take much to convince me that Mike Trout is having the best season of any player in the AL, and his track record indicates that his performance this season isn’t some small-sample fluke. Should that matter in a 60-game season when it doesn’t as much over 162 games? I wouldn’t fault anyone for voting for Trout because they know this performance is real. He also might not be having the best season on his team. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a great story — Anderson’s emergence over the last few seasons has been incredible, while Abreu is having a great year after turning in two average campaigns before this one. Does Anderson’s trajectory and potential future put him ahead of Abreu’s great couple of months? After last night’s games, Ramírez is the AL WAR leader and would be a deserving winner. It wouldn’t necessarily be a copout to avoid the discussion entirely and just go with Bieber, though some reserve the MVP for pitchers in a truly difference-making season.
The season’s been a sprint and as I noted yesterday when discussing the National League, 60 games makes it harder to differentiate between players. That’s going to make it simultaneously easier and harder to argue that the voters got it wrong. It’s harder because there probably isn’t a wrong choice, but easier because there are a bunch of deserving players.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Interesting to think about how the big differences between BRef and Fangraphs WAR leaders this year (due to the shortened season) will impact things. For example, Trouts’ DRS is a train wreck at -10 which puts him way lower on Brefs WAR leaderboard. Since UZR and Statcast both paint a more average to slightly below average picture, I’m inclined to believe his DRS is an anomaly but it still definitely hurts his chances.
Yeah Defense WAR is going to be confounding (is Abreu really that terrible (I haven’t watched him) providing less defense than Nelson Cruz?) Because of defense and SSS, voting will be more subjective then ever, even when using “objective” WAR
As an avid White Sox fan, he is looking very impressive defensively this season whereas in recent years he has looked far below average. He’s no Paul Konerko at scooping the ball out of the dirt, but that has also seemed better this year. He still lacks mobility, although for a guy his size I guess he may be more agile than you’d think. I’d say he has played like a top 5 defensive 1B in the AL this year. On groundballs down the line as well, he has seemingly been scooping all of them up, although positioning may also have a small factor there.
I know OAA doesn’t translate neatly into a WAR framework but OAA thinks Abreu has been an above average first baseman.
That said, keep in mind that UZR doesn’t think Abreu has been that bad. It gives him -4.4 UZR/150, which is about 2/3rds down the list. He should get some more credit for the defense but a huge chunk of that is the position adjustment.
Not sure about Abreau’s defense this year in particular, but he is not good.
That’s a terrible take. He’s been very good this year on defense.
Abreu has had an excellent year with the glove. This really isn’t a close contest for anyone thats watched a lot of the games. Abreu has not only outproduced everyone, hes been good on D, provided exceptional leadership, and most of all he has produced at crunch time over and over and over again. He should be running away with this thing.
Yeah, I really don’t understand Baseball Reference’s WAR calculations sometimes. Trea Turner somehow produces negative Defensive WAR. I get that he is below average among shortstops, but I would think that even a below average shortstop produces more defensive value than an average First Baseman, like Freeman.
DRS is real, real touchy. A few years ago–before he was traded to the Mets, I think–Jay Bruce was having a year where was running something like a 125 wRC+ at the trade deadline and his DRS was so bad bWAR said he had negative value. I mean, his defense was bad, but you have to be impossibly bad for that to really be true.
bWAR had Bruce at +0.9 WAR when he was traded. And for the full year they have him at 1.1 WAR vs only 0.3 for Fangraphs because Fangraphs rated his defense as far worse than Baseball Reference.
There may be issues with BR’s defensive calculations but that ain’t the example you’re looking for…
Turner’s defence is compared relative to other SS not 1B
Bieber for me. He’s just been so incredible this season, and it is mesmerizing to watch him dominate like he has been. (Also, yeah, maybe this is a cop out because idk how to pick among any of the batters.)
When in doubt, Trout.
Honestly I think this is where I’d end up too if not for Bieber. All of those position players are just so tightly bunched, but I think Bieber’s excellence this year has been enough to make it a moot point for me.
I honestly think voters will look for a reason not to give Trout another MVP in a shortened season. To me, I honestly don’t understand, what, a fear of giving the MVP to a non-great player? That ship sailed long ago. Also, Rendon has clearly established himself as a great player and has been at least as good. Jose Ramirez, too.
Why should it matter if a player isn’t great? Shouldn’t be be about what happened that season rather than the players total body of work?
I guess I could see an argument if for instance Tim Anderson has the greatest defensive stats for 50 games of all time to say “maybe that isn’t real?” But I agree, if the award is just for who is the best player, it should have been awarded to Trout in July.
Part of the problem with Rendon is that unless the voters are really tuned into OBP they might miss how good he is, because his HR and batting average is merely very good rather than super-elite (this is also Freeman’s problem).
Freeman is hitting .340, and leading the NL in RBIs. Not saying those are the stats we should be voting on, but those are certainly conventional stats.
That is true! The lack of homers, I think, is the bigger issue.
No reason for Trout to get it this year. Just like most years he should be in the running for MOP, not MVP.
🤔
MOP = Most Overlooked Player
Most Outstanding. That is when you simply look at a players personal performance.
I’m not quite sure what that means. MVP is an individual award. What else would you consider other than how that player personally performed?
Yes, it is awarded to an individual. But Valuable is the key piece to the name of that award. It is about the value you bring to your team. You play to win the game, so there is no value in losing. How do you contribute to your teams success?
bluerum29, we could keep going on in circles for days on this, so I’ll just short-circuit this and ask you to come up with a mathematical formula that represents what you mean. To the extent that there is a clear definition of what you are saying, there should be a way of representing it mathematically. Hopefully that will answer matthayden4’s question (or, if you can’t come up with something, that will put a merciful end to this conversation).
I don’t want a one size fits all mathematical formula to represent it. That is like the people who like WAR, I’m not a fan of that “stat” at all, don’t really care about it. Watch them play, look at the results they get for their team. There is so much that can go into value that you can’t even see when looking at the box score or advanced metrics. Some of it is subjective; leadership, culture change, momentum shifts for teams, all of those things matter when it comes to value a player brings to the team. When it comes to stats, a player who hits 3 home runs in a game his team loses is less valuable that day than someone who hits a solo home run in a 1-0 victory. Empty stats in a loss didn’t change the outcome of the game, so they don’t bring the same value to the team that day. Long term they can have an effect, maybe their performance momentum is carried over with the team to the next day, but that is where you need to watch the games and see how the team reacts. How do players carry themselves when teammates do or don’t perform well.
Cool, so basically, there is no criteria except your gut feeling. That’s good to know.
Gut has nothing to do with it; you have to actually watch them play the game and see who gets results and how do they impact those results. In the NL this year I would go with Tatis at this point. He has taken a leap in his performance this year and seems to have become the emotional leader of that team, a driving force in the culture change for that team. That has definitely impacted their team success. The stats are solid, but its more than that.
Suggested Math Formula (for offense anyway)
Runs Contributed per total Team Runs Scored.
“Runs Contributed” would be Runs + RBIs – HR.
(subtracting home runs, because on a home run a player gets credited for both the run he scored as well as the RBI contributing to his scoring, even though only one run was scored).
Total Team Runs Scored is just the total runs the player’s team has scored.
The rate would show directly how a player’s production compares with his teammates.
Winning Percentage Added also directly shows a player’s impact on each game. Perhaps some way of comparing that with a team’s total Winning.
That would be one element to look at and being able to focus on the stats contributed during team wins. But even that doesn’t look at the whole picture. There is no need to try and boil a player down to one stat. Look at all the stats, watch them play, analyze all the data. Also, The rbi’s and runs don’t look at what a player does to contribute to those things. Did someone steal 2nd to get them in position to score on the next base hit? Moving a runner over the at bat before that player gets knocked in, that is a contribution that doesn’t get show in the box score either, but matters to the teams success. Positive outs can still have a benefit for the team.
Why? More than half the league is going to make the playoffs and his team is going to miss. I get in a full season with only 10 playoff teams that you give it to Trout because it’s not his fault… but now that 16/30 teams make the playoffs, I think it would be wrong to give it to Trout when he hasn’t even been clearly the best player.
If at first you don’t Shane Biebes, Trout, Trout again.
LOL He’s not even close to Abreu this year. Plus his team failed to make the playoffs in a year where half the league makes it.
I think there is an argument that Bieber’s season is “truly difference making.”
We did not have a regular spring training and it has shown with piggyback starters, pitch counts, and extended bullpens. More than a normal year, this year has required teams to give innings to the 13th, 14th, 15th, or even 16th best pitcher on the roster. That can easily get to *below* what we think of as replacement level.
Bieber is not leading the league in innings, but he will probably end up close to 80 innings pitched after his next start. As of now, only five starters have over 70 innings, including Bieber, and since only 28 are over 60 innings, it’s safe to say fewer than one pitcher per team will even get to 70 innings this year.
Bieber’s value already doesn’t require extra factors to make him a solid choice. But considering the problems pitchers faced with the 3 week “summer camp,” there certainly is at least this one in his favor.
The fact that anyone would vote for a guy that only plays in 20% of his teams games is kind of funny. A guy like Abreu has been exceptional for 95% of his team’s games. Easy math……
You seem like someone that would trade a 10 pound bar of gold for a 50 pound barrel of dog shit. I mean, it’s more, right?
It’s got to be Abreu. If not, you’re effectively saying a 1B can never be an MVP because of the defensive adjustment to WAR that penalizes the position overall. No one has been better this year, and his locker room presence and leadership of the younger guys has been lauded all season. Jose Abreu is truly the definition of a “most valuable” player as the White Sox charge into the playoffs and challenge for the best record in all of the American League.
Your comment won’t make a lot of sense when Freddie Freeman is awarded the MVP.
My comment didn’t make sense now because I didn’t make it well. What I was trying to say is that I think Abreu is the MVP. And the only reason he’s not atop the WAR leaderboard is because of the defensive adjustment for 1B. Presenting the table in terms of rank-ordered WAR is problematic, for this along other reasons. So I’m arguing against WAR as the discussion point, rather than against Abreu.
I think both Abreu and Freeman (as I noted in the NL thread) are, by far, the most deserving candidates in each league. They are each among the best 2-3 players, and I think they are each the most valuable player on their team, and the most valuable player in their league.
But then you’re arguing against the use of defense as a metric for MVP, right? The defensive adjustment is based on the value of a 1B versus other positions.
Abreu would be atop the leaderboards if he were a) better at defense at 1B or b) that much better than Jose Ramirez, at 3B, at offense. So it’s not like a 1B can’t be the WAR leader.
I am. It makes no sense why league average (or replacement level) SS is worth more than league average 1b.
Every team has to fill 9 positions. You’re not adding more wins to your team because the team picked you.
Good defense should add more Wins at premium positions though
The individual defensive adjustments are all calculated relative to the average player AT THE POSITION. The worst SS in the league is a better defender than the best 1B man, but without the positional adjustment he’ll be treated as far worse than any 1B because he has more opportunities. For that matter, without positional adjustments, every DH is equal to a league average center fielder, catcher, or short stop.
SS is a harder position to play, but why does that matter?
Every team has a SS on defense. Why is an average SS bringing more value than an average 1b?
I know it’s not meant to be taken literally, but a SS would be replaced by another SS. They aren’t adding anymore value because every team has to play a shortstop.
Obviously it’s going to be harder find a Shortstop or Catcher who can hit, but I don’t think that’s relevant. They will be rewarded for that when compared to players who play the position.
A DH doesn’t help or hurt the team on defense. A 1B is on the field for the same amount of pitches as every other position.
I think I just have an issue with the idea of WAR in general
You just explained why an average SS is more valuable, its harder to play. Which means its more difficult to find an average replacement. Most of the defenders in the MLB could learn how to play an average first base, so why should an average first basemen be rewarded as much as an average SS for doing it? Also, average defensive play at SS, CF, or C just helps your team more than average play at first base. They see the most action.
Hitting is compared to the entire league. Fielding is compared to your own position. Someone who hits like a DH and defends like a league average short stop is vastly more valuable than someone who hits like a DH and defends like a DH.
One of these people is simply a better and more valuable player than the other.
But without a positional adjustment, that average defending (for an MLB shortstop) short stop is treated as no more valuable for defense than an average 1B, if they hit the same they would have the same WAR.
That’s why there is a positional adjustment, because not to have one says that being slightly below average at SS is worse than being too bad at defense to play the field at all.
We could have two first baseman win this year. That would be pretty awesome.
Abreu and Freeman are very deserving and should win it.
Abreu has been great, but so has his teammate Anderson. Either might be a fine choice, and that hurts them.
After so many years of offensive suck, it’s hard for me to wrap my mind around having 4 White Sox in the conversation.
Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were pretty good. So I disagree pretty strongly on that point.
I do think we can have a discussion about whether the 1B penalty is too harsh, as well as thinking through how we measure defensive contributions there (it is pretty tough to measure well).
Yes… point taken… I should have more clearly argued against the 1B penalty, and ranking by WAR. I didn’t make my point well.
This is why it is important to look at players defense by watching how they perform on the field. The eye test. Are they a great defender, yes, no, iffy, marginal. Do they make players that others at their position wouldn’t make?
The eye test ain’t helping the Abreu-shouldn’t-get-dinged-for-defense argument.
If the eye test doesn’t help him, then he isn’t that great at defense and he should get dinged. Simple.
If anyone has watched Abreu play defense this year they would know that he has been excellent.
That’s strange, I thought Mike Trout was still playing in the AL.
WPA is a game-level stat. It tells you how exciting each moment is in the game. That’s it. It is not measuring the contributions to winning.
A player with a high WPA is just telling you that they created a lot of memorable moments.
A “retrospective WPA”–which assigns how valuable your contribution was based on how close the game was at the end–that would capture the context-dependent aspects of contributions to winning. But that stat, as far as I know, doesn’t exist. RE24 is pretty good at capturing the base states and adjusting for that, but doesn’t do any adjustments based on how close the game was at the end.
So I would use WPA very cautiously, if you even do it at all.
I think WPA is a great descriptive stat. It gives you a good idea of the contribution a player had to his team’s success. Clearly it is contextual and depends a lot on the situations your team puts you in (I actually really like WPA/LI because it removes that contextual part), but I actually don’t think it’s all that bad of a way to evaluate and compare MVP candidates’ seasons, at least in a tiebreaker capacity. We all know baseball has elements of randomness and “luck” to it, but ultimately (to borrow a phrase from Herm Edwards) you play to win the game, and I think it is completely reasonable to think it matters how much players contribute towards that goal! I wouldn’t advise making any predictions based on someone’s historical WPA, but for comparison’s sake, I say have at it! (Though really I think WPA/LI is superior to WPA in most ways for this purpose, so maybe use that instead.)
All of those things are true, except for one issue: It’s the fact that contributions are weighted based on how close the game was at the time and the inning, rather than the score at the end.
Hypothetically, let’s imagine that Yoshimoto Tsutsugo belts the first pitch of the game as a home run. And then no one gets another hit for the rest of the game.
Now, imagine it is the top of the 9th, and no one has gotten a hit all game. And now he leads off the inning and belts a home run. And then no one gets another hit for the rest of the game.
Which time did he contribute more to the win? If you start treating WPA as an individual level stat, then you’re arguing that WPA thinks in the latter scenario, he did more. This is obviously madness. Simple math shows that in both cases, his contribution to the outcome is the same. The difference here–and what WPA captures–is how it makes you feel.
(After writing this, I re-read what you wrote about WPA/LI–can you tell me exactly what that would show you? Would that fix the problem I identified? It is hard to imagine exactly what it is capturing)
On August 12, 1966, Art Shamsky came up to pinch hit in the bottom of the 8th down 7-6 with a man on. He homered to give the Reds the lead.
The Reds couldn’t hold the lead and the game went into extras, with the Pirates taking a 9-8 lead in the top of the 10th. Shamsky, still in the game, hit a solo HR to tie it up and keep the Reds alive.
The Pirates took another lead in the top of the 11th, scoring 2 to make it 11-9. With a man on, Shamsky hit yet another home run and tied the game in extras once again.
The Pirates then scored 3 runs in the top of the 13th and held on to win the game. Given that his team lost, how would you value Shamsky’s contributions to his team that day? If the Pirates had put up 10+ runs in the 13th to make it a blowout, would the answer change at all?
Of the seven hitters profiled in Craig’s article, only Abreu has a higher WPA this season than Art Shamsky had in that one game.
To be fair, Abreu is arguably the best hitter in AL the season, and has way more PAs than DJ LeMahieu. So I don’t know what saying “Abreu is leading the league in X offensive statistic” is telling us that we didn’t already know. He leads in offensive WAR, too.
(and on top of that, his RE24 is not all that different than his offensive WAR.)
Here’s quick explainer that I’d basically copy if I tried to explain it myself: https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/wpa-li/. A “win expectancy version of WAR” is a useful shorthand way to think about it in my opinion. Basically it strips out the context part (or “leverage”) of WPA – since leverage index is just measuring the potential chances in win expectancy, if we divide WPA by LI then we are essentially left with how much WPA a player “should” have produced. I’ll admit it is not the most intuitive statistic, but for me going through the math of LI and WPA to see why WPA/LI works was a useful and fun exercise. And so yes, it does address the problem you brought up (which is certainly a huge issue with WPA). It’s also the root of the “clutch” stat, which is (useless and) fun!
Note: Trout currently leads the AL in WPA/LI (a good sign for any statistic), and is also the least clutch player in baseball this year, followed by Jose Ramirez!
Ahhhh clutch my old nemesis.
I guess the question then is, what is the advantage of WPA/LI over WAR? I’m a fan of RE24 because I think it adds something interesting (the base states) but I’m not sure what WPA/LI is giving us.
The big difference between WPA and REW (basically RE24 scaled to wins) is that WPA is heavily influenced by the sequencing of runs….but as pointed out in this discussion the timing of when runs are scored has no (direct) impact on the total number of runs.
When you strip that part out, you are left with RE24. And I’d argue that RE24 is superior to linear-weights based run metrics in that the sequencing of events leading to a run DOES matter, and reflects a form of value added by a player.
Right, so most of the time when people say that there is a difference between predictive validity and “what actually happened”, they are wrong. RE24 is the only exception to this I can think of. RE24 is not predictive the way that regular offensive WAR is because it is literally external to the player, yet it also captures the spirit of the RBI without a lot of the baggage.
WPA/LI still weighs things differently depending on how they directly increase (or decrease) a team’s chances to win a game, unlike WAR. So, for example, with bases loaded in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, a player gets the same boost to WPA/LI for a walk or a grand slam (boosts win expectancy to 1 from wherever it was before, and of course LI is the same either way), while WAR or, more specifically, wOBA just sees a walk as a walk – the idea being that a player can’t control the situations in which his PAs occur, but can control (in theory) how he responds to and performs in those situations. Now, clearly this isn’t measuring how “good” a player is – obviously a home run is a better outcome than a walk, full stop. I just think it’s not crazy to want to capture how much a player contributed to his team actually winning games (which, again, is arguably the whole point of playing the sport). RE24 does something similar, but I just like the direct link to win expectancy for this kind of thing. WAR is undeniably the better evaluator of performance (even leaving aside the fact that it considers defense and baserunning), but I think WPA/LI is a fun and reasonably nuanced way to look at how much a player’s performance at the plate directly influenced his team’s chances of winning throughout the season.
After last night, I dont think any stat saying Jose Ramirez isnt clutch is accurate. That is part of the problem with WPA (Not all clutch situations are the same) but also penalizes Ramirez for playing on a team with probably the worst OF for a post season team
in modern baseball history.
Well, after last night he is now the 23rd-least clutch hitter in baseball this year rather than the 2nd-least clutch!
(“clutch” isn’t really an actual skill)
Why not WPA / (LI^2) ?
It would be a good combination/compromise of the two – providing appropriate, balanced value for situational production, while also still giving extra (but not ridiculous) value to dramatic moments and minimizing production in irrelevant moments.
I think the real issue here is that Bieber / Ramirez and Abreu / Anderson and LeMahieu / Voit are teammates, so you can see a lot of vote splitting based on the “best player on the team” question. I’m of the mind that Ramirez should be the winner here–he’s just been such a force–but the vote splitting could benefit Lowe simply because he is the only candidate from the Rays.
You can throw in Trout / Rendon as another pair of vote-splitting teammates.
My vote would go to Ramirez. With Cleveland being pitching-dependent with a light-hitting lineup — they are 26th this season in team OPS at .688 — Ramirez’s contributions have been a monster part of Cleveland’s successful season.
I wonder if this really is a problem. Let’s look at the past 10 years and how often there were teammates both in the top 5 and how often one won, going backwards:
2018: Betts won, JD Martinez 4th (Betts was an easy, runaway winner)
2017: Lindor and JRam were top 5, Altuve beat Judge (both had higher war than Cleveland pair)
2017: Arenado and Blackmon were 4th and 5th (Stanton won with 59 singers and WAR .1 less than Votto who finished a close 2nd)
2016: Kris Bryant won with Rizzo finishing 4th. Bryant had a clear WAR lead on pack. Easy choice.
2013: Molina and Carpenter finished 3rd and 4th, McCutchen easily won and should have easily won.
2012: Beltre and Hamilton were 3rd and 5th. Hamilton has 4 WAR. Cabrera won with triple crown but second place Trout should have anyway.
2011: Verlander won with Cabrera 5th. Verlander has .3 more WAR than 2-3 Place. Good example of a teammate *not* hurting a candidate.
2011: Braun won with Fielder 3rd. Braun was .3 WAR behind 2nd Place Kemp. Again, it’s almost like the opposite of a penalty here.
2010: CarGo and Tulo were 3rd and 5th. Votto and Pujols were 1-2 and both had more WAR.
I went back to 1999 (which was the last year I was going to look at) and found that Robby Alomar and Manny finishes 3rd and 4th behind Pudge 1st and Pedro 2nd. Pedro should have won this, but Robby and Manny were better than Pudge. I think if you wanted to squint you could make this case. That was 21 years ago.
If there is evidence that it hasn’t hurt players in the past, that begs the question, shouldn’t it. If you have 3 great players, and 2 of them are on the same team, they help each other out in games and production, the other player doesn’t have that benefit. Doing more/or the same with less, that should be seen as more valuable.
Ramirez hasn’t been more of a force than Abreu. The numbers don’t lie. Abreu’s numbers are better. Plus Abreu has been the best clutch player in the majors this year. Additionally, you don’t lead the league in RBI for two consecutive seasons if you aren’t an extreme run producer. I also remind you that he played for a rebuilding team last year when he did it which makes it more impressive.
12 starts, even 12 really good starts is not enough in my mind to consider a pitcher over a position player for MVP. I also don’t like the idea of considering players who have missed a lot of time. Their season is just too short to consider them. I vote Ramirez.
I don’t think Bieber has been enough better than the position players to win it. I’d also prefer to give it to someone with an established track record of MVP caliber play, given the short season. Trout, Rendon, and Ramirez would be my top candidates. I think I’d take Ramirez if the season ended today.
I mean, he literally became the fastest player to 100 k’s in a season in only 62 1/3 innings
Shane Bieber: 276 batters faced
AL leader in PA: 243
In normal years these numbers are never even close, so your anti-pitcher stance makes more sense. But Bieber has impacted more at bats than any player in the league. And while position players are making plays in the field… I think it would be hard to argue many players have 30+ defensive plays that make the same impact as a pitcher’s impact on an at bat.
I gotta admit, that is a pretty interesting way of looking at it. A step further would be to look at how each candidate’s outcomes and statistics measured up to an average player’s outcomes and statistics over that number of plate appearances — for batters, how much above, and for Bieber, how much below. Of course, I am far too lazy to do it myself.
I think I’d vote for Bieber personally, but the batters faced stat isn’t as compelling as it sounds. The top 20 or so pitchers in innings pitched consistently face more batters than the top batter gets PAs. Last year, Marcus Semien led the league with 747 PAs. There were 36 pitchers who faced 747 batters or more. Similar numbers in 2018: the league leader in PAs had 745 PAs, and there were 34 pitchers who faced that many batters.
I’d say it’s an argument, in general, for being more willing to consider pitchers for MVP, but it doesn’t make Bieber’s case unique this year.
The league leaders in BF always have more than the league leader in PA. What is this trying to say?
I don’t think Bieber really has a shot. It’s nothing against him, but voters have a big penalty for pitchers— they’ve got their own award, the Cy Young, which Bieber is running away with.
I’m a bit uncomfortable with strictly using WAR for MVP arguments this year, almost entirely because the defensive WAR variations drastically affect the leaderboards. This is why there’s such a large discrepancy between fWAR and bWAR: according to bWAR the top two position players are Abreu and LeMahieu, and there’s a 0.4 gap between them at Anderson in third. Trout and Ramírez aren’t even in the top ten in bWAR because DRS hates what they’ve done so much!
These sample sizes are much smaller than what is considered “stabilized” for advanced defensive measures. Frankly, I don’t think it is responsible to consider defensive WAR much at all this year, aside from a slight positional bias. All else aside, give it to the best hitter with the most PAs, whoever that ends up being in a week.
I just want to say, in a full year, I would have no problem voting for a pitcher as MVP. And I have Bieber on my fantasy team this year. I love the guy.
But, in a shortened season, I just feel like the sample size isn’t big enough to give it to a guy that only played in a handful of games. Over a normal 162 game season, while the proportion is the same, the length of time of dominance is a difference-maker to me; anyone can be at the top of their game for 2 months, what about 6? That last month was the difference last year for some guys’ CY chances, think Hyun Jin Ryu. (And i get it isn’t fair to Bieber because he is one of the few guys this year who went out and dominated every 5th day this year) Not only that but I think Abreu, Trout, Ramirez are all equally deserving and I think it should go to one of them.
I’m still on the fence about Bieber, but I do think SP can be the most valuable player, even if the value is in fewer games because of the impact that SP have on the games they start (fwiw Bieber also has a .5 WPA edge over the leading AL batter, though WPA has caveats explored above). Bieber has pitched 15% of CLE innings; compared to recent pitcher MVPs, that’s between Verlander’s 17.4% of innings pitched in 2011 and Kershaw’s 13.5% in 2014. Suppose there was a “playoff MVP” covering all rounds; I think plenty of pitchers would win that award pitching ~15% of their team’s postseason innings; I’m not sure the ’20 regular season should be treated that differently?
“anyone can be at the top of their game for 2 months, what about 6?” If the implication is that Bieber is likely to regress over a longer season, couldn’t that apply just as much to position players who have a high BABIP this year or are outperforming their career numbers by a good amount, like Anderson and Abreu? Ramirez can also be streaky (.652 –> 1.105 OPS in the two halves of 2019). Or maybe Bieber isn’t “established” like Ramirez/Trout, I guess implying that if a more established pitcher like deGrom or Scherzer had Bieber’s numbers the MVP case would be more plausible? I’m not sure there are easy answers, MVP is a really tough question this year and evaluating SP for it is even harder.
For me, it is Abrue .1st off, the CHW wouldn’t be anywhere near this good without him. Abrue leads the AL in Slg%, Hits and RBI, 2nd in HR, wRC+, and wOBA, 3rd in Runs, BA and OPS. I am good with that pick
Agreed, its a no-brainer
My guess? Abreu. Abreu has always been at least somewhat above average, but this season he was remarkable, both for his individual stats and his role in leading the White Sox to where they are.
I understand Baseball Reference’s version of WAR very well when it’s broken down into its components. I understand Fangraphs’ version less well.
From my understanding, WAR here is Off+Bsr+Def (which itself is fielding runs+positional value)+league adjustment+replacement runs. Off, Bsr, and Def are available for everyone here, and since they all play in the same league, the adjustment should be almost equal (small discrepancies in playing time only). Which means I should be able to solve for replacement runs. That’s where I’m having an issue.
Lindor and Ramirez are an easy example since they’re teammates. Lindor’s Off+Bsr+Def = 4.8 runs. Assuming 10 runs/win for ease of calculation, his 1.7 WAR implies 17 runs, leaving him 12.2 short.
Ramirez’s Off+Bsr+Def = 23.7 runs. His 3 WAR implies 30 runs, leaving him 6.3 short.
So for Lindor we have 12.2 runs from league adjustment and replacement runs combined. And for Ramirez we have 6.3 runs from league adjustment and replacement runs. Lindor has 240 PA to Ramirez’s 229 for the same team. How does Lindor get those extra 6 runs?
Slightly off on the calculator, as you’re double dipping baserunning which is already included in the Off value (hitting + baserunning). So remove another 2.6 from Ramirez (making 21.1) and add 1.5 back to Lindor (making 6.3) now they’re back in the same ballpark hovering between 9-11 runs between positional and replacement to get to their total runs, which is covered by the differences in PAs.
Did you account for positional replacement level? The numbers in the top table for defense are runs above position, so a 6 defensive run catcher laps a 6 defensive run catcher
Trout.
When it is this close, I would reward Trout for his consistently legendary level of play. I would also remember when he was edged by an inferior Miguel Cabrera.
I know it is a single season award. But if I were a voter, I would have a hard time ignoring the past.
Previous years have nothing to do with the award. And Trout has multiple awards that he should not have gotten.
Sometimes I swear you are trolling. I agree 100% with the first line, then you have to ruin it with the second line. I was sure you were trolling for a while, then yday I read a comment that made perfect sense and I was thrown for a loop.
I have always felt that in sports you have to make the playoffs to be considered for the MVP. Value in the season comes from making the playoffs. If you don’t make the playoffs, your season has no value, it is just individual stats. Those are great for your hall of fame credentials, but not in MVP. If the award had a different name, it would be a difference scenario.
You got that second part backwards.
I believe previous years have had a LOT to do with many MVP awards since the award was invented.
And I believe current voters will continue to take previous years into account when deciding this year’s award.
You might feel like previous years should not have anything to do with it. But clearly they often do.
Pretty hard to argue that Trout has been the best player in the AL this year. And while it shouldn’t in any way be some primary facet for MVP votes, if your stats are pretty equal to a bunch of other guys, but your team is sub-.500 and the others guys’ teams are all in the playoffs, I think that should matter a little, like it should at least matter as a tie-breaker. Abreu’s been a better hitter, Ramirez when you factor in his SBs/baserunning is basically tied with Trout for offensive production. No way would I pick Trout over either of them right now.
Despite my Cleveland bias I would have to say Abreu deserves it, but it’s close, and the next 5 days could still change things
I think it would be cool to see an xWar based on xwOBA on the leaderboard or player pages to see how they might’ve done with more average hitting luck. I thought that was a really interesting point, and something I’ve been thinking about a lot recently being a Reds fan with how unlucky they’ve been offensively,
Man, if you told an Angels fan before the first game that Trout and Rendon would both finish top 5 in position player WAR, Dylan Bundy would get down ballot Cy votes, and EIGHT teams make the playoffs this year…well, that would be a cruel use of a time machine.
I would definitely be betting a ton of money on the Nats when they were below .500 and looking awful in 2019. That’s what I would do.
Then I would take those winnings and buy a tremendous amount of stock in Peloton.
If you told me Trout would finish top 5 in position player WAR before the season started, I would be asking “how long was he injured?”
Bieber has also had the benefit of facing Detroit 3 times, KC twice and Pittsburgh once. If you siolate those 6 starts (32 2/3 IP 3 ER for a (0.83 ERA) versus his other starts against (Min/Cin/Mil/CHW where he has (39 2/3 IP 11ER for a 2.50 ERA). Still good, but has been able to prop up his stats facing middling offenses in the AL/NL Central.
Ramirez, Abreu and Anderson have all done a significant amount of their damage against Detroit’s pitching, Trout, and even more so Rendon have put up their numbers against more playoff bound teams.
Well, when you cherry pick your way to making a point and that portion comes out to a 2.50 ERA, I just don’t know what to say about that.
Also, Detroit’s offense might look pretty close to average if instead of three games against Bieber they were able to play three games against, let’s say, Detroit pitching.
I really like that bwar controls for the opposing lineup strength with ra9opp and wish fangraphs did some version of that.
But then I absolutely hate that they use noisy DRS to adjust for ra9def.
(Remember when Nola led bwar in 2018?)
More playoff bound teams? Do you mean Seattle, Texas and facing the train wreck that is the Houston rotation this year? Looking at it the other way the Indians, White Sox and Twins have all played 1/3 of their games head to head. So this argument makes no sense to me.
Trout and Randon aren’t in the equation (or the playoffs LOL)
Perhaps the community will know, but I was wondering when the last time was that such a great player (Trout) routinely played on such a poor team?
Ernie Banks???
Keep in mind that Trout is probably one of the Top 50 players of all time, already. Ernie Banks was good and the Cubs were bad but Trout has already surpassed Banks in WAR. So, maybe you could make a case for…
…Cal Ripken, but even then there were a bunch of good years for the Orioles sprinkled in. I don’t think they ever topped 90 games when he was in his prime, but maybe I forgot some–but they had several years where wins were in the mid-80s.
…Al Kaline played on teams that ranged from awful to mediocre from 1954 until 1960. In 1961, though, the Tigers won 101 games and were a lot better from there on out.
Maybe pitchers would be easier? After all, pitchers don’t pitch every day…
…Greg Maddux was on a mediocre Cubs team, but since he turned around and joined the Braves during their crazy world series runs, I don’t think he can be counted.
…Nolan Ryan was awfully good for the Angels from 1972-1979, and those teams were not very good. In 1980 he joined the Astros, and while that team was mostly around .500 they did win the division twice (back when there were 6 teams in the division).
This is really hard. Finally, I found someone who might qualify: Ken Griffey Jr played on consistently average-to-bad teams in Seattle, with the exceptions of 1995 and 1997. Then he went to the Reds, which were also consistently average-to-bad. I thought I had one, but then I looked at his WAR. Trout is already within 2 wins of him.
I give up. The moral of the story here is that when you get lucky by getting a generational talent like Mike Trout, the odds are that you (eventually, somehow) are able to field a competitive team around them. Trout’s excellence on the Angels is a major anomaly, with Griffey being the only other example I can think of.
Ted Williams???
They only won one division championship with Williams, I think, but they were a pretty good team for pretty much all of his run. It’s just that the Yankees had some combination of DiMaggio, Mantle, Berra, Charlie Keller and Phil Rizzuto for his entire run.
Rogers Hornsby? I seem to remember a Bill James article making the argument his teams always got better after trading him, as well.
And of course, you mean 1 pennant for Williams not division title.
The poorness of Trout’s teams may be overstated. During his first 5 years, the Angels averaged 87.2 wins per season. But they only made the playoffs once and were swept.
The Angels are 45 games under .500 since, but in his 10 years the only really “poor” teams, by record, were 2019, 2016, and probably this year.
Let’s also keep in mind that it’s much easier to produce with no pressure on you because your team is 20 games out.
Craig, do you think Trout will have to move off center? DRS and UZR have been down on him for a few years now.
That HR basically settles it imo. Even if it shouldn’t, big hits like this I’d imagine would swing voters.
I just clicked on the article to say that. Abreu had a home run today too, so he’s keeping pace, but Ramirez…that was awesome. It is really hard for Abreu to make up ground on Ramirez when Ramirez keeps hitting home runs, and even more so when you can spin a narrative around it like that one.
Yeah, that was a fun game from a narrative perspective – in the middle of the 10th, Abreu’s homer looked like a huge boost for his case by tying the game against Cleveland in a Chicago win. Then Ramirez comes to the plate and wipes out the Abreu narrative with his own.
It may be a bit of a stretch but I’d like to make a case for Brandon Lowe among the hitters (will get to that at the end).
When it comes to value, I think it makes most sense to look at it as “money in the bank” because of their performance and I don’t think anyone exemplifies this more than Lowe in the AL.
He leads in WPA due to his clutch hitting and as a result his team is pulling off an upset division title. And his defense has been slightly plus as well. If you take Fangraphs Def number and divide it by 10 to convert into a more Win compatible number and add it to WPA you get:
Lowe – 2.48
Laureano – 1.98
Rendon – 1.43
Biggio – 1.41
Tucker – 1.40
Abreu – 1.33
…
Ramirez 0.40 (very unclutch hitting)
…
Trout 0.33 (poor defense)
Note that these are expectations versus AVERAGE as opposed to REPLACEMENT so they are lower in general, however the idea that clutch hitting is not maintanable holds no weight to me. They delivered when it mattered, therefore they provided the value. In the future no I wouldn’t expect Lowe to be the batter MVP of the league. However, we have a way of counting the “profit” and the answer is Lowe.
Of course this all is moot as Bieber has a 2.86 pitching WPA making him the true MVP even by those measures. But I think it really serves to show how nobody else is in the league of Bieber outside of somebody barely even being talked about…
But I guess I just felt the need to bring up the philosophical question left largely untouched – what does MVP mean – how good of a baseball player they ARE or how much value they GAVE? Brandon Lowe should not be near the top of anyone’s list for the latter but ultimately that is what MVP is about to me, especially if you look at how it is historically awarded in playoff series.
Context of the stat still applies. How many times did Ramirez (batting 2nd most of the year) come up with anyone on base what with DeShields, Roberto Perez, Cesar Hernandez, Oscar Mercado, Josh Naylor, Sandy Leon, or Bradley Zimmer on base in front of him as that group (plus a few other ugly OF) comprised almost all the 3 batters up before Ramirez every game. As for Lowe, well, no such problem.
On average, Ramirez’s PAs were in slightly higher leverage situations than Lowe’s (1.07 pLI vs 1.06).
I don’t think it matters much though, this context is overrated. If a pitcher is only sent in with the game out of hand, are they providing value? The context of what MVP means in the shared consciousness in single events (like the All Star Game or even Super Bowl), as well as shorter series (World Series) is more important to me. Be consistent. We give out these awards to the ones that make the game-saving big plays. But when they make the game-saving big plays in aggregate, apparently they don’t count because we are obsessed with cumulative abstractions which are more of a peripheral for future overall value than actual value itself.
It seems kinda remarkable that the A’s are a first-place team, close to best in the league, with zero remotely viable MVP or Cy Young candidates, no?
I’m not sure why, but this feels very A’s-y to me.
I noticed Clint Frazier is missing.
What more does Luke Voit need to do to even get mentioned in the AL MVP discussion? Doesn’t need to be a leading candidate but how on earth is the leader in homers & 2nd place in RBI’s on a playoff team not even getting a cursory mention on these lists?
Because his power stats are similar to Abreu’s but Abreu is hitting FIFTY points higher. So how could Voit win over him?
MVP Calculator:
(Individual WAR / Total Team WAR) * Actual Team Wins + Winning Percentage Added
S. Bieber 2.9/16.5 = 17.6% * 31 wins = 5.49 + 2.86 WPA = 8.35
B. Lowe 2.2/14.1 = 15.6% * 36 wins = 5.62 + 2.34 WPA = 7.96
J. Ramirez 3.2/16.5 = 19.4% * 31 wins = 6.01 + 0.88 WPA = 6.89
J. Abreu 2.8/19.9 = 14.1% * 34 wins = 4.79 + 1.94 WPA = 6.73
D. LeMahieu 2.2/15.2 = 14.5% * 32 wins = 4.64 + 1.29 WPA = 5.93
A. Rendon 2.6/14.3 = 18.2% * 25 wins = 4.55 + 1.03 WPA = 5.58
N. Cruz 2/18.5 = 10.8% * 34 wins = 3.67 + 0.17 WPA = 3.84
—
Only intended to include the one most qualifying player per team, but this showed me a pretty compelling case for both Bieber and Ramirez.
Also, super interesting observation: The Tampa Bay Rays total team WAR is only 14.1 !!!!!!???
Bieber shouldn’t win because he only impacts 20% of his teams games. That’s 80% of the year he has no or minimal impact.
Abreu is currently 3rd in BAvg, 2nd in HR, and 1st in RBI for the 2nd straight year.
Plus he has been exceptional in key moments in games (half of his HRs have come with the WSox down 1 run in their game!) he has also been good on D. There really is nothing more that he could do to win the MVP this year. Nobody’s number compare to him and nobody has been more clutch than him.
I don’t get it. Why would anyone take an “x” stat (xwOBA) into consideration for an award that is based on performance? Expected performance is helpful in evaluating a player if you’re compiling a roster. But what plays out on the field is what you deal with in assessing, you know, what the player did on the field.
Create an xMVP if you want to talk about expected performance. I care about the real thing.
Can we remember back to last winter when the White Sox were being mocked and ridiculed, on this very site, for resigning Jose Abreu. That is the same Jose Abreu who should get the AL MVP this year. Let nobody forget that he is a tremendous clubhouse presence and certainly has helped the young Latin players, and the White Sox are loaded with young Latin players, perform well enough to lead them to the post-season.
Yeah, you mock the Phillies for the Ryan Howard contract, the Orioles for the Chris Davis contract, and the White Sox for the Jose Abreu contract, and then you play some Meatloaf.
LeMahieu is hurt by being a team player, the whole concept to me of an MVP, what I mean is that they take a GG 2B and have him often play 3B and even 1B as needed, which hurts him in dWAR, so they can spell those starters and give someone who doesn’t have his bat at 2B. He leads in the list with wRC+, and I think he’ll gain a little more support for MVP should he take home the Batting Crown. He will improve on his fourth place finish of last year, and boy has it been a bargain two year contract for the Yankees!
Being a team player is not the “whole” of an MVP, but the facts you mention surely should be mentioned and considered.
But it’s just so hard when the season is only 60 games to consider someone who missed time. There are so many candidates basically bunches up and I think 10-12 missed games can be used to start trimming down a list.