The A’s (Yes, the A’s) Make a Splash in Free Agency
Let’s just put the headline up right away. Luis Severino is now an Athletic:
BREAKING: Right-hander Luis Severino and the A’s are in agreement on a three-year, $67 million contract, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in the history of the A’s franchise. And even with the qualifying offer attached, Severino got well over market expectations.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2024
Now this is an interesting free agent signing. The A’s just signed the second-biggest deal of the offseason so far, and the largest in franchise history. They have one other player with a guaranteed contract on the team – and that’s lefty reliever T.J. McFarland, making $1.8 million in 2025. This is a sea change in terms of how the team operates, so let’s talk about why they did it and the ways it could succeed or fail.
First things first: The A’s could use some pitching. They were better than you’d think in 2024 – they won 19 more games than their dispiriting 2023 campaign. Three different A’s hitters – Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, and JJ Bleday – eclipsed three wins above replacement, the first time that had happened since the team shipped out Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. All three of those guys are young and under team control for a while. Shea Langeliers and Zack Gelof both look like good everyday players. Jacob Wilson is an intriguing top prospect. If it weren’t for the overall John Fisher stink of the franchise, this lineup would feel mighty tantalizing.
That excitement doesn’t extend to the starting rotation – or at least it didn’t before today. JP Sears was the team’s “ace” – but only by the process of elimination. He threw 180 2/3 innings of 4.38 ERA, 4.71 FIP competence, the kind of numbers that might get you demoted to swingman on a playoff team. That was in the cavernous confines of the Oakland Coliseum, not in bandbox Sutter Health Park, and Sears is a fly ball-oriented pitcher. Things got dicier from there; Sears plus Joey Estes, Mitch Spence, and J.T. Ginn would make for the most anonymous top four in the majors.
Severino might not be a capital-A ace anymore, but he’s a reliable pitcher who just completed a rousing comeback year with the Mets, pitching a full season for the first time since 2018 and delivering solid results in the process. His stuff improved as the year wore on, though his stamina didn’t quite follow suit; despite a lackluster full-season strikeout rate, he looked much more like his old self by the end of the year. His 11.1% second-half swinging strike rate is exactly equal to his career mark, an encouraging sign for a guy with plenty of talent but a scary injury history.
It’s not hard to see how that will benefit the A’s. He’s their best pitcher right away, and he’s even good in a way that should play well in a small stadium. There are a lot of strikeouts and grounders in his game, and the sinker he introduced in 2024 looks like a great addition to his arsenal. He’s now sinker/four-seamer/sweeper against righties and more balanced against lefties, using his excellent changeup as an equalizing tool. It’s an exceedingly modern pitch mix, and nothing at all like his last full season with the Yankees, when he threw more than 50% four-seamers to everyone.
The dream outcome for the A’s is a full season of, say, 3.50-ERA ball. The dream is also that he’ll bring a little name recognition to a franchise sorely lacking in it. Rooker is awesome and a social media darling, but this is the team’s first year in a new city, and Severino might be the only player on the team that a casual baseball fan has heard of (give or take Mason Miller, the reason I’ve focused on the rotation instead of the entire pitching staff when talking about how the A’s need to improve).
I’m not sure which of these matters more. The team is still a long shot to make the playoffs in 2024, but perhaps less of a long shot than you might expect. That hitting core is no joke. The potential minor league reinforcements are intriguing. There are several holes in the roster – third base and left field, just to name a few – that could be quickly patched at reasonable rates given the recent trend of bat-first veterans in free agency. The big holdup was always going to be pitching, and Severino is a nice start toward fixing it. If the A’s are sincere in their desire to increase payroll to roughly $100 million, he won’t be the last starter they sign either.
About the money: This is a lot more than both the crowd and I expected Severino to get. I was lower on him even compared to consensus, expecting a three-year, $39 million deal, and the crowd came in at three years and $48 million. Pitching has been in high demand so far this year, with every single deal coming in higher than our estimates, but this one stands out even there. In this case, though, I think I understand why: The destination matters.
Does a major league free agent, one used to the trappings of big league life, want to live in Sacramento and play in a Triple-A stadium for 81 games a year? Players are obviously willing to – the majors are the majors – but if you’re already generationally wealthy and in total control of where you play, the A’s have to be toward the bottom of the desirability list. Their stadium saga is a national punchline. The fanbase they just left staged reverse boycotts. Given identical contract offers, I can’t imagine many players would pick the A’s, particularly given California’s state tax regime.
The solution: Pay more money! In my opinion, that’s what the A’s did here. Tons of contenders surely reached out to Severino. He’s in the same broad group as Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Michael Wacha (who signed an extension rather than hit free agency): useful arms who can start a playoff game for you. Deals like that often come down to best fit – unless one team offers a lot more money than the rest. In other words, the Athletics made Severino an offer he couldn’t refuse.
In that sense, it might be an overpay, but it’s a necessary one. Someone had to be the first free agent in the door, and I’m definitely not counting McFarland, a 35-year-old journeyman with 0.9 career WAR. Before signing Severino, the A’s had a projected payroll of $34 million for 2025. Heck, they just signed the biggest contract in franchise history, and we still project them for the lowest payroll in the majors next year by $13 million. I think the team would have gotten in trouble – actual, risk-of-monetary-penalty trouble – with the league if it had so openly flouted free agency.
In addition to a nice payday, Severino got an opt out after the second year of his deal. That’s useful to him on multiple fronts. If he continues to grow into his new pitch mix and turns back the clock to 2018 in terms of results, he’s young enough to sign another lucrative multi-year deal after the 2026 season. If the A’s are an absolute disaster and he’s not having fun playing there, he can always bail after two years rather than stick it out for all three. Those are both useful escape valves, and player-friendly options seem like a great way for the A’s to entice more players to sign.
I’m not ready to give a final opinion on this one until I see the rest of the team’s offseason plans. But provisionally, I love this. The A’s were better in 2024 than most people realized. They really need to start getting better soon if they want to avoid being a punchline throughout their Sacramento tenure, and even into their eventual move to Las Vegas. They got a star with name recognition to put on top of their rotation and splash on banners across two cities, and they did it in a way that builds for both 2025 and the future. Two thumbs up on this one so far. The only bummer is that the A’s could have used a deal like this last year in Oakland, but better late than never.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
My first thought was, “they’re going for it.” What that is exactly who knows. The offense has some power to it and if Soderstrom puts up second half numbers for a full year that offense could be decent. But they need more than Severino. It is possible they push for some bargain guys and hope to find a few solid guys but if they aren’t going for it then I’m not sure what this is.
They’re going for attendance.
Yup. Like, they’d like to have any.
Obviously some of this is the Sacramento Athletics tax, but this does fit with the overall trend of pitching being a bit more expensive than we anticipated. Really curious to see if this all carries over to the hitting market or if it’s all a pitching thing.
Pretty stiff tax for a guy that has managed 3.8 WAR in the last 6 years. I guess recency bias is still king for some GMs.
Maybe they think there’s something to unlock there. No idea.
Truthfully, it wouldn’t surprise me. Severino two years ago ran a much higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate than the past two seasons, with basically identical velocity. If the A’s think they can get that version of him back, maybe with results more in line with his xERA that year (2.94), that seems like a solid signing. There’s not really a reason he couldn’t, either. A lot of his metrics look the same or better.
I would agree if it wasn’t the A’s. They don’t unlock much anymore
It wasn’t that long ago that they turned guys like Montas, Bassitt, Manaea, and others into the best versions of themselves. I think that’s an overreaction.
I think the market is pretty well established for guys like Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill, but it might get a little higher than expected for infielders. A fair number of teams have a need at 2B / SS / 3B.
What to you mean? Just that you think ONeill and Hernandez will get closer to what everyone originally projected, and won’t be inflated like the pitching prices?
I mean as a pirate fan who likes ONeill for them, id like you to be correct.
Yes, I think the market for corner outfielders like O’Neil is fairly well established at 3 years and somewhere between $40M and $50M. I think Hernandez clocks in a little ahead of that ($60M or so) and Santander much farther than that but the general point is that I think the predicted contracts for them are going to likely be more accurate than for pitching (or Adames, whose deal sounds like it could be anywhere between $120M and $200M).
well, i’m looking forward to seeing your “outfield will be priced in line with what we expected” theory come true! i’d like to see some signings to confirm it.
I’m still unsure what youre seeing as different about the outfield? Are you just thinking there’s plenty of FA corner OF to go around to fill the main lineup holes on teams?
Whereas pitching and infield, there’s more holes to fill and less relative supply?
Jeff Passan reported their payroll will be around 100.
I could see them sneaking in, idk, a bellinger deal (chi has to eat at least some) and giving jeff hoffman a chance to start, and maybe something else small.
Do that then get “The Other” Max Muncy in there at 3b and idk, the Athletics are looking pretty fun.
If he does get back to previous levels, isn’t there at least a possibility that a trade deadline move could get the A’s a decent haul from a playoff contender?
The deal has an opt-out so its more of a “Hey, Sacramento, we’re going to be respectable.” Especially if they do go to $100M.
If they are, they might draw more in a minor league park than the Coliseum.
Insult to injury.
I agree. At the trade deadline Severino could be a big target for playoff contenders.
Not with $60M still committed. Little if any surplus value there so who’s ponying up a top prospect?
It really depends on how Severino performs. If he shoves and pitches extremely well a pitching hungry team just might do it.
Add in Soto, boom, the A’s made payroll goal and the playoffs.
You can’t just “turn it on” when you show up in Vegas. If they punt on the next three years then they will at best be mediocre in 2028 when they move into that ridiculous and ridiculously expensive ballpark.
I doubt seriously they make any commitments that are likely to be dead money in 2028, but it makes sense to start acting a bit like a real team in advance of your debut in your new home, or you face the prospect of half-empty stadiums by the second half of your first season.
It’s also not as if they don’t have the money. This is at most just Fisher pocketing less of the money that the competent owners have made him and will make him.
I don’t know if I agree with the first part of your argument. Per the terms of the contract he won’t be there when they get to Las Vegas (even if you’re optimistic about the timeline for getting to Las Vegas). The benefits that he would bring in 2025 will likely be gone by 2028.
No I think this is because Fisher is sick of getting embarrassed right now. I don’t know *why* that is when he hasn’t been embarrassed before, but maybe it’s because he wants to show the world that this Sacramento thing is going to work.
I’ve said before that MLB decided to make an example of Oakland for not folding to stadium blackmail. The A’s spending and being respectable as soon as they leave town is flipping the bird to Oakland.
If they want the threat to work for KC and elsewhere they had to do it sometime.
Fisher has been flipping the bird at Oakland for almost two decades. He became majority owner of a team that had a rich local history and built-in fanbase and ran it into the ground to help justify a move. But the move has to turn a profit, and that doesn’t happen if he continues operating the team the same way. The A’s need to hit the ground running and be a success in Las Vegas in order to maximize his eventual payday.
All that may be true but the city blocked every attempt at a profit boosting ballpark, leaving them in the old dump.
MLB made it clear: new park or no. They had to make good on the threat.
Cutting team spending was a means to that end: greasing the way out, rather than the oft-repeated “cost reduction for the sake of cost reduction” end unto itself.
Yes, Fisher could have spent enough to field a competitive team, but how would that have helped the stadium campaign? The city would’ve shrugged: “They’re still coming out, no? You don’t need a stadium.”
The clear contrast is 90’s Cleveland: making noises of leaving unless they got a new stadium. The moment the new, lodge-heavy facility opened, spending went up above league average.
Just yesterday, financing was finally approved for the Rays ballpark, the other “build it or they will go” threat. And the Vegas park is also locked in.
One way or another, MLB gets what it wants.
This. This. This.
The amount they *overpaid* Severino is more than what it would’ve taken to keep studs like Olson, Murphy and others for additional arb years. MLB knew exactly how gross Fisher’s strategic tank job had become and gave its blessing.
The A’s spent $95 million in 2021 and $103 million in 2019 according to Baseball Reference.
The reality is that Oakland was below the league median in attendance for 49 of their 56 seasons despite being top five in playoff appearances during that time. The Athletics were also the last to leave, after the Raiders (twice) and Warriors. It’s just not a good sports market.
But this lays a base that could help with other free agents. Like Jayson Werth with the Nats a little bit. You show you’re serious and not a joke team and then other players take you seriously. It’s probably more of other things, more related to MLB concerns, but I think this deal could be helpful to them in an indirect way.
Detroit signing Pudge served that same purpose.
Right now no single top FA will go to the ChiSox if they can help it. But if they can overpay on a couple second tier guys to make the team respectable, they might have a shot at top tier guys next year and not spend 5 years rebuilding from scratch. They won’t do it because they’re looking at selling but they could afford it if they weren’t.
And Fisher can afford it considering how much he’s putting into the Vegas ballpark.
If this wasn’t the A’s then I might agree with you but it’s so unlikely that they are going to ever make real splashes in free agency. And my sense is that most of the time these sorts of deals go sideways like Carlos Santana to Phillies sense. You think you’re building towards a winning culture or something that will set the foundation for the future but the player never overlaps with the opportunity to sign the better free agent.
Nitpick: I’m feeling much better about my 41st birthday today if Brent Rooker is still “young” at 30 years old 😛
Happy birthday!
That’s not nitpicking, just sharing a perspective (sort of the purpose of the site, arguably 😉
Meanwhile: didn’t make my first all-star team* until I was 42; both of you are kids… you’re only as old as your knees feel that day!
*= admittedly facing a lower level of competition than Mr. Rooker. Much, much lower.
“The team is still a long shot to make the playoffs in 2024.”
I’d say it’s 100% certain the A’s will not make the playoffs in 2024. 😉
2025, though? The third WC might be in reach.
They were 73 wins by BaseRuns last year. That’s not that far behind the third wild card in 2023, which was 84 wins for the Marlins and D-Backs. They get similar production out of Sears, Bido, Spence, and Ginn, plus Severino, and that’s enough to be in play for that kind of record given that their only true holes on the position player side are LF and 3B, both of which have young guys coming up. The AL West isn’t a good division right now. The Angels are awful, the Astros are not as good as in past years, and the Mariners still don’t have an offense. The Rangers don’t have a bullpen.
It is absolutely a long shot. But it’s not impossible.
And it is something they can market in Sacramento.
Is Sutter Health Park really a band box? I’ve heard it plays much more neutral than many PCL parks.
Yeah, it’s actually quite neutral. Which people who looked into the data when the news was coming out all found out, but Ben didn’t care to check.
I’ve seen Rivercats games there before. It’s not a tiny park, as far as the playing field. But…..the summers in Sacramento are very hot. The ball should travel much better in Sacramento than in Oakland during the summertime.
It’s definitely less offense heavy than your average PCL part, but the ball flies there in the summer. I go to a decent number of Rivercat games and on hot days it’s a launching pad. Maybe the extra night games can hold that in check a bit but compared to the Coliseum, it’s no contest.
No question it’s a better hitting environment than Oakland was.
When you’re not a good franchise it can be hard to spend money wisely. Teams like the Guardians or Orioles have a ton of guys in their 20s who they could extend, teams like the Braves can spend money on a big ticket free agent to get them over the top. Teams like the Rays and D-Backs can take advantage of veterans wanting to play close to home since many of them live near Spring Training sites.
The A’s don’t have much in the way of breakout stars who will still be good in 5 years, they’re not likely to be good, they literally play in a minor league stadium, and they don’t even have a city in their name because they are moving. But for whatever reason—pride, fear of embarrassment, pressure from the union / other owners, irrational optimism—the A’s have decided to spend money now. And this is probably the best they can do—spending $67M for a 4th starter. I don’t think there’s an any way for them to spend money “well” in MLB terms, even if this is them spending it “well” in the context of their situation.
Being respectable isn’t wasting money if it gets 1M butts into the park.
Maybe they don’t make the playoffs but anything vaguely close to .500 is worth spending on. Good ROI.
Do we think they make more money trying to fill up a minor league park at $90M or by running a $40M payroll? I don’t know the answer to that, I would have to sit down with a spreadsheet and figure it out.
That minor league park can get them 50% higher attendance at a higher average price than the dump.
Plus overpaying to be respectable in ’25 makes it less likely they’ll have to over pay in ’26 and beyond. It’s not all about the next few months but rather the next few years.
They have to rebuild for Vegas and it’s not just about the farm.
Severino has the potential to pitch as a solid #2. That’s what the A’s are shooting for. This is the most A’S thing ever.
Maybe you and I just have different definition of what a #2 entails but every WAR calculation and pitch model and estimator I have looked at has him a 2 to 2.5 win player in 2024. It has been a long time since he has pitched like a star.
If he had a career year he could absolutely push for 3-4 WAR
Sean Manaea and Scott Boras gotta be smiling from ear to ear after seeing this deal and Heyman says the A’s made play for Manaea before signing Sevy. Jim Duquette a couple weeks ago floated 4 years and 90 mil for Manaea on Mets hotstove I’m thinking he’ll get more than that given the market. Severino seems like a great guy and pitched really well but there are things to watch as the difference in his home/road numbers were pretty stark this past year. I wouldn’t be shocked if this contract turns out really bad. I’m sure Wacha is happy in KC but it looks like he left a good deal of money on the table re-signing so quickly as he had a better year than Severino.
Time for the Phillies to remind them Taijuan Walker is available and Phillies will cover half the salary. Maybe throw in a mid level prospect.
Boyd and Severino deals pretty much foreclose Cleveland signing anybody useful.
They were never going to sign anybody near the top but if Severino gets that much even the third tier guys are going to be out of their range.
The more I think about this, the less sense it makes for the A’s.
Yes, they need pitching. But Severino was one of the least reliable options on the market considering his price: he’s being paid off his first good, healthy season since 2018, when he pitched against a completely different A’s team in the ALWC. Additionally, many of his peripherals are lackluster.
The most jarring thing about this signing is that the A’s are surrendering a draft pick (a second-rounder, I believe) in order to sign him. Is that really smart for a team with a bottom 5 farm system coming off a 93-loss season? The opt-out makes this even more baffling: if Severino is good, they only get him for two years, and if he’s not, they get to pay $22.3M AAV for a bad Severino in 2027. This is already an overpay, why in the world is there an opt-out?
Ugh, I’m rambling. Can anyone provide an example of any good move David Forst has made since taking over fully in 2023? Or anything good this organization’s done at all since the last teardown?
The farm system maybe better than advertised. If they are really terrible they will trade Severino for prospects. Providing Severino pitches well.
I forgot about the draft pick. You are right. That really does not make any sense. Signing Flaherty or Kikuchi would have worked a lot better.
Kikuchi mightve cost 3 and 80 with the “okay ill sign with you but you are the Sacramento Athletics” tax
I think I might have preferred that for them.
I think my view is that it’s okay to splurge once or twice, every once in a while. When it comes down to it, the athletics baseball club is *still* extremely “underpaid.”
Yeah this individual contract is bad but the overall picture is still extremely efficient despite it. And that’s what really matters. They became slightly better and slightly less efficient today. That is okay!
And heck, they might as well just get another QO guy while they’re at it. Take advantage of the fact it will only cost a 3.
Now, a bigger picture question is… why did years and years of selling/rebuilding not already yield a few Severinos who makr 1/22 of what theyre paying severino?
As an A’s fan I’m excited about this deal. If they can add another decent SP arm they have a shot to compete for a wild card if everything breaks right for them. Yes Sutter park has a small total attendance capacity but it isn’t a tiny playing field. It will probably play about league average until summer. The Sacramento heat will probably result in a very friendly hitting environment during the heat of summer. I tried to buy tickets to a game earlier today and was pretty much scared away. Good seats range from $500-$1000. They are basically charging 3-4 times the average rate and will probably sell out every night. They have the money to spend on free agency. I’d expect another couple of big signings otherwise this move makes no sense.
Thanks for a measured post. The As will fill up their stadium for three years. It will be a blast to go to see MLB games in a small park. Revenue will be far greater than it has been and very little stadium costs.
I expect the As to add 4-5 players this offseason which will turn them into a reasonable competitor if not a playoff team.
I’m guessing the next three years will be a lot of fun and after this year – players will be far more likely to sign a deal with them.
I’d love to have season tickets for them
If they can at least be entertaining the park will fill up.
After all, even if they aren’t great, the other team will be worth watching.
They haven’t started selling tickets yet. Those prices don’t reflect what it will cost at all. Those are just brokers trying to squeeze dollars out of the uninformed.
Well I was able to buy if I wanted. So whatever.
This feels something like a bid by the A’s the change the conversation around them.
Obviously Luis Severino is no Jayson Werth, but this kinda reminds me of a mini version of that. An overpay to desperately try to start a culture change.
Exactly.
He has one big point in his favor: he is willing to go to Sacramento.
For two+ years.
I’m astounded reading through both the article and the comments that there’s so little mention of the opt-out. Why would the A’s do that? I’m fine with going a little overboard on the money because they need to, but the opt-out is easily worth 8 figures!
In other words, the highest paid player on the roster BY FAR will only stay on the roster for the third year if he’s convinced that third year of his contract would pay him more than the open market. If he overperforms at all, they lose the third year.
The bigger implication for the A’s specifically is likely his trade value, which is SO MUCH lower with an opt out putting the acquiring team in that same bind. Would love to know the $ figure ZIPS puts on that opt-out, because I think it’s a big one and underdiscussed
It would be nice to see them add another starter or two: one in the Eovaldi or Pivetta range, maybe one in the gambler’s Turnbull or Soroka range — which would let them move Spence to the bullpen, which could use help too, since he was a lot better first time through the order than afterwards. I think that would help more than the cost of upgrading at 3B or LF, Seth Brown and Darrell Hernaiz (or Max Muncy). There are upgrades available (Josh Rojas at 3B?) but I think the money should all be spent on pitching at this point. Maybe sign Jesse Winker, or gamble on Eloy Jiminez, at DH for a year until Kurtz comes up.