The Astros’ Bewildering Offensive Approach

Last night, the Dodgers’ domination of the postseason continued. Winning a World Series game by two runs isn’t exactly steamrolling your opponent, but given what Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Morrow, and Kenley Jansen did to the Astros offense, the game never really felt in doubt. Houston got their only run on an Alex Bregman solo home run and never really threatened again.

The rest of their offensive production consisted of a pair of singles, but neither runner would get past first base. The Astros didn’t put a single runner in scoring position all night long. There were no rallies, no trouble out of which a Dodger pitcher had to work. Just outs, and most of them quick outs.

It took Los Angeles just 107 pitches to face 30 batters. Usually, when you see low pitch counts and quick innings, it’s because a team was overly aggressive, swinging at pitches early in counts and making quick outs. In Game 1, though, the Astros seemingly made it easy on the Dodgers by just not swinging at strikes.

Obviously, there’s no great gameplan for Kershaw, Morrow, and Jansen. You’re going to lose most nights you face those guys. Kershaw’s the best pitcher alive. Jansen might be the best reliever alive now. Morrow has turned into a dominant reliever pumping 100 mph gas. I don’t want to suggest that the Astros’ failure was simply because they had a poor approach: those guys dominate regardless of what their opponents try.

But, with all due respect to the Dodgers for executing, I have to say that I don’t really know why the Astros hitters decided to take so many pitches down the middle.

On the night, Houston took 27 called strikes. One out of every four pitches prompted umpire Phil Cuzzi to his right arm. And most of them weren’t exactly controversial calls.

Jose Altuve was called out on a slider below the knees, and he let Cuzzi know about it on his way back to the dugout. From that reaction and the score, you might think that it was a pitcher’s zone all night and that the Dodgers just took advantage, but besides a generous 0-1 call against Josh Reddick and a first-pitch fastball to Alex Bregman that probably didn’t catch the corner, these were all pretty clear strikes.

Let’s start with George Springer, the team’s leadoff hitter, who somehow managed to stare at five hittable pitches in four at-bats. In the first inning, Kershaw threw Springer an 0-1 curveball. Here’s a rough estimate of where it crossed the plate.

There are obviously some impediments to understanding the precise location of this pitch. We’re looking at a two-dimensional image of a ball entering a three-dimensional strike zone from an off-center outfield camera. Those concerns aside, however, the ball appears to be pretty much in the middle of the plate. Springer started to swing but held up, taking strike two instead.

Then in the third inning, Kershaw once again got a called strike on an 0-1 count. This time, it was with a fastball. A fastball that crossed the plate about here.

That’s a middle-middle fastball with Springer already down a strike. I know it’s Kershaw, and he’s really good, but that’s probably not a pitch he expected to sneak in there for a called strike.

Then, in the sixth inning, Springer came up to face Kershaw a third time. He got ahead 2-0, then chased a slider before getting a 2-1 fastball. This one, I’m not blaming Springer for. This one was just a great pitch.

That’s a tough pitch to hit, even if it’s somewhat centered over the plate. Tip your hat to Kershaw there for stealing a strike. He would then proceed to strike Springer out for the third time.

In the ninth, Springer had to face Jansen, about as dominating as a right-handed pitcher in baseball gets these days. Understandably, he didn’t go up there hacking. Understandably, Jansen took advantage.

Once again, there’s no question that’s a strike, and Springer quickly found himself down 0-1. Not that I could do any better against an elite reliever throwing 94 mph cutters with pinpoint command, but that’s probably not a pitch you want to take too often.

Then, after working it to a 2-2 count, this was the last pitch Springer saw on the night.

You can’t locate a pitch much better than that. Jansen painted the outside corner at the top of the zone. Springer again thought about swinging, decided to hold up, and then was called out anyway. He walked away shaking his head, clearly disagreeing with the call and probably frustrated with his performance on the night. But like everything else at which he stared in his four at-bats last night, it was a strike.

This wasn’t just about George Springer, though. He took five called strikes; his teammates took 22 more. The plot of the pitches Josh Reddick took is even worse.

There are two first-pitch fastballs from Kershaw there that quickly put Reddick in a hole and an 0-2 fastball down the middle that Reddick actually protested.

Every Astros starter took at least two called strikes tonight. And since they were constantly behind in the count, it was pretty easy for Kershaw to rack up the strikeouts. Of the 27 total called strikes, 11 came on the first pitch. That’s just not a recipe for success.

Overall, the Astros swung roughly as often as they normally do, going after 50 of the 107 pitches they faced. But a bunch of those swings came on chases out of the zone in two strike-counts, counts in which the Astros found themselves because they gave up an early strike by staring at a pitch in the zone.

Tonight, with Rich Hill on the mound, a patient approach might pay off; Hill’s not exactly known as a strike thrower. But against Kershaw, Morrow, and Jansen, it certainly didn’t work. While “swing more” is an oversimplified suggestion to hitting some of the best pitchers in the world, I would suggest that the Astros should try not to stare at so many pitches down the middle the rest of this series, or else the Dodgers will be hosting a parade pretty soon.