The Astros’ Emerging Superstar
By just about any measure that counts, Alex Bregman has been one of the best players in baseball. In fairness, Alex Bregman was expected to be one of the best players in baseball, but not quite to this degree. I can explain, using our old standards — projections and WAR! Coming into the year, among both hitters and pitchers, Bregman was tied for the 45th-highest projected WAR. He was sixth in projected WAR among Astros, behind Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, and George Springer.
Right now, Bregman and Verlander are tied atop the Astros’ WAR leaderboard. And Bregman is tied for 10th in all of baseball, around names like Matt Carpenter and Nolan Arenado. It’s not that no one ever saw Bregman coming — he was already a good everyday player, and the Astros did, after all, select him second overall in the 2015 draft. But Bregman has steadily continued to improve, to the point where he’s nearly maxing out his skills. Because of how loaded the Astros’ roster has been, it’s been more difficult for Bregman to stand out. It’s funny to refer to someone as having played in Altuve’s shadow, but Bregman’s completing his star turn, and he should be recognized as such.
Bregman’s only 24, and he debuted in 2016. I’ll recite for you his year-to-year wOBAs:
- 2016: .336 wOBA
- 2017: .351
- 2018: .386
You can see his improvement right there, with a start-to-present wOBA jump of 50 points. But now, with the help of Statcast and Baseball Savant, check out Bregman’s year-to-year expected wOBAs, based on his walks, strikeouts, and batted balls:
- 2016: .308 expected wOBA
- 2017: .347
- 2018: .402
The improvement is even more evident, if you think of expected wOBA as being a better measure of true talent. Compared to his rookie season, Bregman now is up 94 points. For the sake of providing some context, in 2016, Bregman’s xwOBA ranked in the 39th percentile. The next year, he was up to the 74th percentile. Right now, he ranks in the 95th percentile. Bregman isn’t exactly pulling a Mookie Betts, but he still looks like one of the most improved hitters in either league. Some of it is just about his batted balls, but the bigger story has to do with Bregman’s approach.
As a rookie, Bregman walked about 7% of the time, and he struck out about 24% of the time. Over two years, that walk rate has almost doubled, and that strikeout rate has been cut almost in half. Between 2016 and 2017, Bregman’s big step forward was with regard to his making contact. Between 2017 and 2018, it’s been a matter of increased selectivity. In the following plot, you’ll see every hitter with at least 250 plate appearances in each of the past two seasons. The x-axis shows the changes in chase rate. The y-axis shows the changes in in-zone swing rate. Bregman, as you could guess, is the point in yellow.
Bregman’s isn’t the most extreme point in there, but it’s among them. Out of 206 players, he has the fourth-biggest drop in chase rate, and he has the 16th-biggest drop in in-zone swing rate. The outliers, if you’re curious, are Nick Williams and Pablo Sandoval. Williams deserves a post of his own. This is about Bregman, though, and what you’re seeing, basically, is intent to sit on certain pitches. Bregman trusts his eye, and he’s become increasingly patient. Or, if you prefer, increasingly selective. While Bregman’s top exit velocities aren’t in any way comparable to Giancarlo Stanton’s, you don’t need to hit the ball 120 miles per hour. Bregman is putting his best swing on more pitches, and he’s laying off more of the stuff he doesn’t like. That’s how he’s become one of precious few players in baseball with more walks than strikeouts.
The other day, I wrote about Juan Soto. That post has a plot that shows power (ISO) and discipline (K-BB%), and Soto and Bregman are right next to one another. I like thinking in terms of player comparisons, so I wanted to run some more math. Here’s what I did, in short: For every regular or semi-regular in 2018, I found their swing rates, their contact rates, their exit velocities, their launch angles, and their sprint speeds. From there, I calculated standard deviations and z-scores, looking for the smallest distances from Bregman’s own stat line. When I ran this analysis for player comps, one player stood out as easily the best comp in the pool. This season, the player most comparable to Alex Bregman is Jose Ramirez.
By the numbers, Ramirez came out literally twice as close to Bregman as the next-closest player. Here’s a table of the relevant information, along with some bonus stuff to drive the point home:
| Player | Swing% | Contact% | EV | LA | Sprint | BB% | K% | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 37.4% | 88.0% | 89.2 | 16.3 | 27.8 | 12.8% | 12.5% | 0.402 |
| Jose Ramirez | 39.8% | 87.4% | 89.3 | 18.2 | 27.6 | 13.3% | 11.4% | 0.407 |
Bregman and Ramirez are similarly disciplined, and they make similar amounts of contact. The contact they make is also almost identical — right down to how they excel to the pull side — and as it turns out, Bregman and Ramirez even have comparable top sprint speeds. Because of the discipline and contact, both players walk plenty, without striking out. And their current expected wOBAs are only five points apart. This is about as close a match as you can find. Bregman is a 24-year-old third baseman. Ramirez is a 25-year-old third baseman.
They’re built a little differently, sure, but it’s nothing dramatic. Bregman bats righty, while Ramirez bats from both sides. This year, Bregman has eight steals, while Ramirez has 26. Ramirez rates as the superior defender. But both players stole 17 bases a year ago, and while Ramirez is strong in the field, infield defensive numbers are our least reliable, and many believe Bregman ought to be playing shortstop. I don’t want to go over the top and come off like I think they’re literally one and the same. But if you were wondering what Alex Bregman went and improved into, he improved into becoming awfully similar to Jose Ramirez. Ramirez just ranked first on our trade-value list. Bregman ranked seventh.
When Bregman first came up to the majors, he succeeded, but there was reason to be skeptical. He didn’t seem to possess upper-tier power, and his approach left room for improvement. That approach, sure enough, has improved, and now Bregman is one of the most selective hitters in the game. He’s also one of the most difficult hitters to strike out in the game, and the contact he can make is plenty strong enough to drive the ball to or over the fence. Just about the last thing the Astros needed was another superstar on the roster. It looks like they’ve got one. Bregman is doing almost everything he possibly can.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
of course there were expectations for him, he wasn’t drafted second overall for no reason. I’m a bit surprised though how good he is, most scouts expected him to be a solid but not spectacular player with ok but not special defense, a great K-BB rate and 15-20 homers.
he has fulfilled the K-BB thing but he seems to be turning into a 30+ homer guy which is the difference. as an amateur his swing was kinda hook-y and he improved his direction through the ball so that he hits the ball more in the air (less topspin rollovers) and the juiced ball also helps.
I thought he would become a good OBP 15-20 homer 3-4 win player but he seems to turn into one of the best players in the AL.
Maybe that was the narrative was when he was drafted, but Bregman was the #1 prospect on a lot of midseason lists just before he was called up. I don’t have any idea how this narrative was that he was going to be a solid-but-unspectacular player survived so long. He was crushing the ball, thwacking 14 homers in 285 PAs in AA, and then another 6 in AAA in 83 PAs. And then he was called up, and thwacked 8 dingers in 217 PAs in his first run at the league.
To me, the comparison between Ramirez and Bregman is important for another reason, though: It’s how we consistently overlook that players with elite hit tools can max out their game power (relative to raw power). This is especially important in the live-ball era, where making quality contact yields better rewards. Bregman isn’t really in Ramirez’s class yet and may never be, but guys with monster contact ability might have more power upside than we think.
As someone who follows the White Sox I was thrilled to see them draft Madrigal, whos hit tool is ridiculous.
Btw I think most teams would take a sure bet to average 3-4 war with the second overall pick. Of course you love a 7 win guy but so many picks totally bust.
Who are the players with the lowest Exit Velocity-to-ISO ratios? The most “buck for your bang” players, in other words?
It was interesting that even in the home run derby, Bregman’s homers didn’t clear the wall by much. His bat-to-ball skills and discipline are just so good that he can make similar contact on live pitching that he can on batting practice pitches.
Anyone still want to debate Dansby Swanson vs. Alex Bregman? No? Great.
I’m more interested in Dansby Swanson vs. Charlie Culberson. How does anyone tell those guys apart?
Culberson: http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/29955/charlie-culberson
Swanson: http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/34895/dansby-swanson
Atlanta definitely has a “type”…
The other day, I was confused watching the Braves game because they decided to sub in Culberson and I just saw him batting just last inning.
The argument was during the draft who is the better SS? Swanson is still and its not really close. Defensively its not even close. Swanson is a SS who can play way above avg defensively at the position according to the Def metric, hes a +7. Bregman isn’t a SS which was the argument as some scouts were split. Bregman can’t even field 3B, hes a -1.7 Def metric. Just not athletic enough i guess.
Bregman has better bat, which everyone agreed on during the draft, but swanson is still better ss.
I’m still waiting for Dansby Swanson to fulfill his potential as the next Erick Aybar.
Bregman > Correa … At least for now. Correa still has the higher ceiling but hasn’t put it together just yet. Injuries are a big factor in it but Bregman is having a better full season than Correa ever has.
Correa is a stud, but idk. Bregman may be the overall better player when all is said and done. Will be fun to see!
This is ignorant nonsense. Correa has been better than Bregman at every step in their career. That is not a knock on Bregman. Correa has put it all together. Let’s remember that 1.) Correa is younger than Bregman. 2.) As a 20 year playing 100 MLB games, Correa put it all together and had a 3+ win season. 3.) As a 21 year old Correa put it all together and had a 5 win season. 4.) As a 22 year old Correa had a 5 win season playing in only 110 games because he tore a ligment in his thumb in an awkward slide. His wRC+ last year was higher than Bregman’s this year. 5.) At the end of May, Correa had already accrued 3 Wins as was very clearly the Astros best player and then he hurt his back.
It’s very easy to say nice things about Bregman without making up nonsense about Correa. The author of this article was able to do it, you should be able to as well.
Boom. Roasted
I think the Bregman >= Correa comes mostly from the recent trade value list had them next to each other. Which is much more injuries than production-related. But it does show how much more skeptical of Correa people have been since back when he was #1 on the trade value rankings last year.
If guaranteed health, I think everyone would bet on Correa to have the better career than Bregman at this point.
I said “injuries play a big part in it.” Correa has the higher ceiling, like I said, but has yet to complete a full season because he can’t stay healthy … hence, he hasn’t put it all together yet.
Bregman has matched Correa’s career high in WAR and has nearly two months to go. For now, until Correa proves capable of doing it for a full season, Bregman > Correa.
You said Bregman>Correa. This is not and has never been true. In 2015 Correa played 152 games +6 playoff games (that’s a full season). In 2016 Correa played 153 games (that’s a full season). Last year Correa only played 109 regular season and 18 postseason games. He experienced the exact same injury and missed the same amount of time as Mike Trout. If you believe that says anything about the true talent value (or long term health projection) of either player, you and I don’t watch the same sport.
Bregman has not yet matched Correa’s WAR from last year. He has played three more games. If Bregman’s season ends tonight with an inside fastball is Correa suddenly >Bregman ? Does Bregman then need to prove he can stay healthy and finish a season?
haha. This is really ignorant. Correa is on a another level.
Staying healthy is a valuable baseball skill and Correa does not seem to possess it.
Too early to say about that yet, but it’s true. Some dudes don’t stay on the field. I’m not counting Correa in that group yet.
Bregman is far from Jose Ramirez. Bregman is a good player, but Jose Ramirez is a star. Ramirez has put up 7 war on avg each yr the past 2 years which is incredible…alex bregman is half of that.
Jose Ramirez has put up 3 more WAR than him this year alone…..thats a ton. Thats 50% more. Jose Ramirez can field his position, Alex Bregman can’t. Jose Ramirez is a +7.5 Def, while Alex Bregman is awful at Def -1.7 and costs his team runs.
Bregmans defense is bad. In fact the i’d say they have the most in common is there size. 5’9-5’10″”ish 165lbs.
Did you skip over the part where Jeff thoroughly went over why Ramirez is by far the closest player to Bregman?
Bregmans BRef WAR through roughly 1100 abs is 11, while Ramirez was at 7.3. Both players took off at a very similar point in their careers (age 23).
Obviously they’re very much alike, and if Bregman was brought up earlier he may have started off slower (like ramirez), but possibly hit somewhere closer to his ceiling earlier than this season.
Bregman is close to Ramirez on offense, but way behind on defense. Ramirez is far better at 3b by both DRS and UZR, and Bregman is awful at SS. Whereas Ramirez is probably below average at SS (depending on how you feel about UZR vs DRS) and excellent at 3B. And Ramirez is at least average at 2B.
I have never bothered with the lack of schedule component of WAR, but with this season’s AL Central being historically bad and Indians all over the WAR leaderboard, I wonder if there’s some correlation here. By the same token, one can extend this to AL in general since the conference is so segregated between haves and have nots compared to the NLs parity.
He’s walking more in the AL Central (almost 2-1 BB/K), but the power and speed numbers are very close.
His divisional slash line is .307/.433 .627, with a ridiculous 42/22 BB/K%.
Would it be possible to compile the top player comparisons throughout the league using this same method (ranking the comparisons with the highest z-Scores)? Or maybe the top players to historical players?
It’s so much fun comparing players based on what we observe. It would be really cool to see some data behind it, as done so effectively above.
I would slightly quibble with one point. From the graph on chase rate and in zone swing rate, it seems like he’s just being more patient. Obviously it’s working, but one of the differences for Mookie is that his in zone swing rate is up to a career high, and is much higher than last year. “Bregman is putting his best swing on more pitches, and he’s laying off more of the stuff he doesn’t like.” I’d argue that the latter is true, but the former maybe not–that would seem to match swinging at pitches in the zone MORE, to my mind.
Not necessarily. If he is swinging less often at strikes around the edge of the zone but more often at pitches around the middle of the zone that could balance out to an unchanging zone swing rate.
I think Bregman may deserve even more credit here. Recall that he made a swing change just prior to getting called up to the majors. He struggled a bit at the end of AAA and then proceeded to go 1 for 32 in a disastrous start in his debut. He quickly realized that the swing change was taking him down the wrong road and then stated to the media “I’m just “trying to get back to my old swing”.
https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Alex-Bregman-gets-Wednesday-off-9113901.php
His performance took off from there but the really interesting part is that he changed his story to the media that he didn’t make any swing change.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dividends-of-alex-bregmans-non-adjustment/
I was following his swing closely at the time and there was definitely a noticeable change.
If Bregman hadn’t figured things out on his own a la J.D. Martinez, he wouldn’t be where he is today. What’s more, one has to admire his character in protecting whoever took him down the wrong road by changing his story.
bregman and character? never would’ve thought i’d have seen that in same sentence
Why? By all accounts, he seems like a nice enough guy?
Told a fan he was a “flee on his nutsack”. Great character, great kids role model. Straight out of Albuquerque
Its tough to gauge Bregmans overall defensive numbers. I firmly believe he would be putting up very high defensive numbers at 2b. I think he would be fringe average at SS, but he would be plus at 2b. Obviously that isn’t happening in Houston.
So when you look at his value on defense its not really his fault…
Great article! Articles like this are why I read FanGraphs.
If memory serves me correctly, Eno was comparing Bregman to Ramirez a couple of months ago.
I would list Bregman second behind Ramirez right now for MVP. While the Astros have had other stars get hurt or struggle, he has been the consistency that has kept them at the top of that division.
lol, bregman is that you? not even close to the best on his own team