The Astros Gave the Indians an All-Time Beating
We know half of the ALCS, as the Astros on Monday wrapped up a sweep of the Indians. And the way I see it, there are two ways you can read the brief series that was.
In one sense, the series was closer than it seems. Game 1 was tight until the bottom of the seventh. It was only then the Astros managed to pull away. Game 2 was decided by only two runs, and the Indians actually led into the bottom of the sixth. The contest turned on a Marwin Gonzalez double off Andrew Miller. And then even though Game 3 was a blowout, the Indians led into the top of the seventh. That catastrophic inning turned in part on an excuse-me ground-ball single. It turned in part on a throwing error on a would-be double play. It turned in part on a double well out of the zone that Marwin Gonzalez thought he fouled off. The score got out of hand, and it got there fast, but the Indians had it where they wanted it to be. It all unraveled in the last third of the game.
So based on one reading, the Indians could start, but they just couldn’t finish. Through the first six innings, they were outscored 7-5. Over the final three innings, they were outscored 14-1. It looks very bad, but it’s not like they were all laughers. At some point, the Indians were very much in every game.
Based on another, different reading, the Indians got destroyed. They didn’t even belong on the same baseball field. The Astros coasted to maybe the most lopsided series win in history.
Over three games, the Astros collected three wins, while the Indians collected zero. The Astros scored 21 runs, while the Indians scored six. The Astros knocked 34 hits, while the Indians knocked 13. The Astros clobbered 14 hits for extra bases, while the Indians clobbered three.
Baseball Reference tells me there have been 308 completed playoff series on record. That means there have been 616 team-series, or team-specific series performances. Obviously, even the longest playoff series is short, and the shortest playoff series is finished before you even know what happened, but the playoffs are everyone’s goal. Playoff games are the games that matter the most. They’re the games for which each team is supposedly best prepared. We’d never analyze a series in the regular season, and all small-sample caveats still matter, but I want to show you some tables. I want to show you what the Astros just did. This was a systematic dismantling.
Remember: 308 completed series. The Astros just outscored the Indians by 15 runs, or 5 runs per game. Here are the most lopsided series of all time, in run differential per game.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Year | Series | Team 1 R | Team 2 R | R Diff/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Twins | 1970 | LCS | 27 | 10 | 5.67 |
| Yankees | Athletics | 1981 | LCS | 20 | 4 | 5.33 |
| Astros | Indians | 2018 | LDS | 21 | 6 | 5.00 |
| Red Sox | Angels | 2007 | LDS | 19 | 4 | 5.00 |
| White Sox | Red Sox | 2005 | LDS | 24 | 9 | 5.00 |
| Reds | Dodgers | 1995 | LDS | 22 | 7 | 5.00 |
| Red Sox | Rockies | 2007 | WS | 29 | 10 | 4.75 |
| Dodgers | Cubs | 2008 | LDS | 20 | 6 | 4.67 |
| Cardinals | Diamondbacks | 2002 | LDS | 20 | 6 | 4.67 |
| Cardinals | Braves | 2000 | LDS | 24 | 10 | 4.67 |
| Braves | Astros | 1997 | LDS | 19 | 5 | 4.67 |
Impressive. It took some time in each showdown for the Astros to take control, but they seized control in all three games, and they hardly gave the Indians a chance. The winner isn’t determined by what the score is in the fifth or the sixth. The winner is determined by what the score is at the end. The Astros scored a lot. The Indians scored a little.
Runs are one measure. I’m going to show you four more. They’re all simple, and they’re all essentially components. In this next table, let’s look at the biggest-ever differences in team batting average.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Year | Series | Team 1 BA | Team 2 BA | BA Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Indians | 2018 | LDS | 0.327 | 0.144 | 0.183 |
| Cardinals | Braves | 1982 | LCS | 0.330 | 0.169 | 0.161 |
| Orioles | Twins | 1969 | LCS | 0.293 | 0.155 | 0.138 |
| Tigers | Yankees | 2012 | LCS | 0.291 | 0.157 | 0.134 |
| Cardinals | Diamondbacks | 2002 | LDS | 0.314 | 0.184 | 0.130 |
| Brewers | Rockies | 2018 | LDS | 0.272 | 0.146 | 0.126 |
| Red Sox | Athletics | 1975 | LCS | 0.316 | 0.194 | 0.122 |
| Dodgers | Braves | 2013 | LDS | 0.333 | 0.214 | 0.119 |
| Athletics | Red Sox | 1990 | LCS | 0.299 | 0.183 | 0.116 |
| Red Sox | Rockies | 2007 | WS | 0.333 | 0.218 | 0.115 |
Look at that! The Brewers just did a number on the Rockies. In their own series sweep, the Brewers out-hit the Rockies by 126 points. The Astros out-hit the Indians by 57 points more than that. The Astros had one of the better-hitting series ever. The Indians had one of the worst. Bad time for those to overlap.
Moving on, let’s check out the biggest-ever differences in team on-base percentage.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Year | Series | Team 1 OBP | Team 2 OBP | OBP Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Indians | 2018 | LDS | 0.421 | 0.196 | 0.225 |
| Athletics | Red Sox | 1990 | LCS | 0.399 | 0.216 | 0.183 |
| Cardinals | Braves | 1982 | LCS | 0.395 | 0.219 | 0.176 |
| Dodgers | Cubs | 2017 | LCS | 0.366 | 0.193 | 0.173 |
| Brewers | Rockies | 2018 | LDS | 0.370 | 0.210 | 0.160 |
| Dodgers | Pirates | 1974 | LCS | 0.401 | 0.252 | 0.149 |
| Yankees | Athletics | 1981 | LCS | 0.415 | 0.267 | 0.148 |
| Dodgers | Diamondbacks | 2017 | LDS | 0.397 | 0.252 | 0.145 |
| Red Sox | Cardinals | 2004 | WS | 0.404 | 0.261 | 0.143 |
| Phillies | Reds | 2010 | LDS | 0.301 | 0.160 | 0.141 |
It gets uglier. Not only did the Astros out-hit the Indians by a ton — they also drew 14 walks, while the Indians had to settle for six. There are the Brewers and Rockies again. You’re not wrong if you feel like the division-series round has been a little underwhelming. But while the Brewers-Rockies series was one-sided, it wasn’t this one-sided. At least they had that one game go to extras.
Moving on again, time for the biggest-ever differences in team slugging percentage.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Year | Series | Team 1 SLG | Team 2 SLG | SLG Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Indians | 2018 | LDS | 0.615 | 0.222 | 0.393 |
| Dodgers | Braves | 2013 | LDS | 0.572 | 0.275 | 0.297 |
| Yankees | Rangers | 1998 | LDS | 0.451 | 0.174 | 0.277 |
| Diamondbacks | Cubs | 2007 | LDS | 0.532 | 0.255 | 0.277 |
| Cardinals | Braves | 1982 | LCS | 0.437 | 0.180 | 0.257 |
| Brewers | Rockies | 2018 | LDS | 0.437 | 0.188 | 0.249 |
| Yankees | Cardinals | 1928 | WS | 0.530 | 0.282 | 0.248 |
| Orioles | Twins | 1969 | LCS | 0.472 | 0.227 | 0.245 |
| Red Sox | Angels | 2007 | LDS | 0.495 | 0.253 | 0.242 |
| Reds | Yankees | 1976 | WS | 0.522 | 0.281 | 0.241 |
Good lord. I mean, good lord. Look at those numbers closely. Yes, what’s most evident is that this Astros-Indians series was the most lopsided slugging series ever. But it was also the most lopsided slugging series ever by almost a hundred points. BY ALMOST A HUNDRED POINTS. I don’t like to type in all caps, but I feel like in this instance it is more than warranted. And I’d linger here longer, too, if I weren’t getting to the final table of this post. To the most comical table of this post. What do you have when you have OBP and SLG? You have OPS. Here are the biggest-ever differences in team OPS.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Year | Series | Team 1 OPS | Team 2 OPS | OPS Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Indians | 2018 | LDS | 1.037 | 0.418 | 0.619 |
| Cardinals | Braves | 1982 | LCS | 0.832 | 0.399 | 0.433 |
| Yankees | Rangers | 1998 | LDS | 0.764 | 0.351 | 0.413 |
| Brewers | Rockies | 2018 | LDS | 0.807 | 0.397 | 0.410 |
| Dodgers | Braves | 2013 | LDS | 0.962 | 0.564 | 0.398 |
| Dodgers | Cubs | 2017 | LCS | 0.881 | 0.491 | 0.390 |
| Dodgers | Braves | 2018 | LDS | 0.803 | 0.429 | 0.374 |
| Athletics | Giants | 1989 | WS | 0.964 | 0.595 | 0.369 |
| Orioles | Twins | 1969 | LCS | 0.832 | 0.463 | 0.369 |
| Red Sox | Angels | 2007 | LDS | 0.864 | 0.503 | 0.361 |
This table is incredible to me. It’s incredible to me for two reasons. One, this is a top-ten table, and we have three entries from just this year’s division-series round. The Brewers-Rockies series was very lopsided. The Dodgers-Braves series was also very lopsided. Yet, two — the Astros-Indians series was spectacularly lopsided. Unfathomably lopsided, by this measure. No series before had ever seen such a big difference in team OBP. No series before had ever seen such a big difference in team slugging. And so, no series before had ever seen such a big difference in team OPS. The difference between the Astros’ OPS and the Indians’ OPS was greater than the Indians’ OPS by 201 points. The gap between first and second here is 186 points. It’s not like this has to *mean* anything; the Astros aren’t perfect, and the Indians don’t need to blow it all up. The Indians are still a solid baseball team, a team likely to return to the playoffs a year from now. But there’s no ignoring the reality of what took place. Soon, the Astros will turn their attention to whoever they’re going to face in the ALCS. For now, they have a little more time to reflect on and appreciate a total obliteration.
Both of the series in the National League were pretty one-sided. They didn’t generate much in the way of memorable moments. The Astros-Indians ALDS also didn’t generate many memorable moments, yet it all came together for a memorable outcome. That was a beatdown. That was a complete and utter beatdown, like nothing we’ve ever seen before. Not by the numbers. Not by almost literally all of the meaningful numbers.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Those 2007 Red Sox.
Record run diff’s in ALDs and WS, but went 7 in ALCS.
That was my first reaction too. Those 2007 Red Sox really had a couple series to remember (if you’re a Sox fan, if you’re not then you’d probably want to forget it).
Tells you how good Cleveland was. They probably would have won that series if the midges had returned.
I remember the 2007 World Series not being particularly close, but surprised to see it’s clearly far and away the most lopsided of all time in terms of R/G differential, and the only World Series to appear on more than one of these charts.
I was initially surprised not to see more from the 2004 World Series on these charts. It only shows up as #9 in OBP differential. As a Cardinals fan, I remember it distinctly feeling like the Cardinals never had much of a chance in any game other than Game 1, which the Red Sox won 11-9.
Looking back, it wasn’t among the most lopsided by total run differential (24-12) or most of these stats shown by Jeff, but I’m reminded why it felt so lopsided:
– The Cardinals never led any game at any point. (Game 1 was tied as late as the 8th inning, but the Cardinals never led.)
– In each of Games 2 through 4, the Red Sox led by either 3 or 4 runs after the 5th inning. These were games that ended 6-2, 4-1, and 3-0.
That series was also pretty anti-climactic for the Red Sox because they had just mounted one of the all-time great comebacks against the Yankees. Coming back from a 3-0 deficit against the favorites, despite having to start a pitcher who had been totally unreliable (Derek Lowe), in game 4, a six-hour marathon in game 5, the bloody sock game in game 6, and then the thunderous celebration of game 7, with tipsy Boston fans screaming the lyrics to “Tessie” at the top of their lungs in various corners of town.
And then the world series happened, which was fun but not what anyone remembers.
Most of it was due to a 13-1 game 1. Next three games were actually very close; 2-1, 10-5, 4-3.
Ah, yes. Those tight 10-5 games are real nail-biters.
My first thought was that it’s alarming how good the Astros are. But on the other hand, my second thought was that maybe the Indians are much worse than they seem, their stats for the regular season having been wildly inflated by the large number of games they played against the teams in their incredibly weak division.
Also, only three games. So not super descriptive of a team’s ability…
That was my third thought.
I think it’s both. Also, although small sample sizes, these are still post season results. Regular season stats don’t translate well into post season projections.
There’s an obvious small sample size caveat for the ALDS result, but the Indians’ splits in the regular season show a dramatic difference between AL Central divisional games and all other games:
Indians vs. AL Central: 49-27, +167 run differential
Indians vs. teams other than the AL Central: 42-44, +3 run differential
Breaking it down even more, the Indians were 10-9 against the Twins, so Cleveland really racked up wins and stats against the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox: 39-18 with a +153 run differential.
There’s an interesting article over at The Athletic(behind a paywall) in which a few Indians players feel that the Astros were better prepared in terms of analytics and scouting reports. Here’s one quote from the article:
“And one Indians player, speaking privately, told me he believed the Astros’ batters were far better prepared for this series than Indians hitters. He believed the scouting reports were more intricate and the attention to detail was more precise.”
Meanwhile, there’s an interview with Mike Clevinger in which he’s clearly choosing his words very carefully. He mentions having a bad sense in terms of the analytics side before the series started. (search on YouTube for Mike Clevinger’s daughter joins dad for ALDS Game 3 postgame interview).
Obviously there’s been some speculation that the larger market teams are ahead of the smaller market teams in terms of analytics. If so, we might be seeing that play out in the playoffs (and perhaps in the regular season as well).
My understanding is that the Astros are pretty far ahead of everyone, except maybe the Yankees, on this front.
it would shock you how far ahead these guys are in terms of player development, analytics, pitching staff usage, lineup, pitch sequence…freaking everything. No one is close, not even the yankees. Theyre player dev is insane.
Avg fan gives credit to Aj Hinch, but really that guy is a bozo who reads a computer, not joking. Every single move, EVERY move, he is told what do to when do it. Its driven by analytic department.
Its mind boggling to me how teams and gm’s have not picked apart and threw big big money to get some of the astros analytic people over to there team and the astros hitting gurus. I won’t say his name, but astros have 1 hitting guy you want. everyone else is meh, but their secret sauce in hitting is because of one guy.
The only thing they are getting beat at is research data/scouting database, yankees db mops the floor with the inhouse astros db.
No wonder the Cardinals were caught hacking the Astros.
The Indians can be back next year.
All they need is three starting outfielders, a 2B who hits, and two high leverage relievers.
The good news is they have five solid starters and they play in the AL central.
I’m curious to know how the 1960 World Series ranks in terms of statistical mismatches. The Yankees outscored the Pirates 55-27, batted .338 vs. the Pirates’ .256, and slugged .528 vs. the Pirates’ .355. But the Pirates won the series.
The discussion made me think of the 2001 WS, where the D’Backs outscored the Yankees 37-14, yet came oh, so very close to losing the series. The OPS differential was .706 vs. .525. If not for Tony Womack, that series might have set a record for greatest offensive differential by a losing team.
At 35-14 (without the 2 Dback runs in the bottom of the 9th), the run differential would have been 7 runs less than the 1960 series (but of course there are other measures of offensive differential).
And also playing a role in that comeback inning was someone else in the news today…
Don’t leave me hanging! Who’s in the news today? I haven’t heard!
Craig Counsell was hit by a pitch during Rivera’s 9th inning meltdown.
Most of that differential was in that crazy game 6 when the Dbacks bludgeoned Yankee pitching, Pettitte in particular, when it was rumored he was tipping his pitches. That wouldn’t explain all the OTHER runs scored against their other pitchers, but certainly when the game was out of hand, the Yankees weren’t putting their best guys out there. I know those stats count like all the others, but since 6 of the games were pretty close, the overall numbers belie how close that series was.
Umm, the Dbacks also blew the Yankees out 9-1 in game 1.
Please stop reminding me of the 2007/2008 Cubs.
The difference between the Astros’ OPS and the Indians’ OPS is Billy Hamilton’s OPS.
So in a sense, for every single Astros PA of the series, the Astros got to send an Indians hitter up there, and then with a free out, got to send Billy Hamilton up there. Not once. Every single time. And sure, he couldn’t run afterward, which takes away most of what makes Billy Hamilton fun, but still: they got 18 guys for the price of 9.
The Astros apparently ran out a lineup of 9 JD Martinezes.
JDs Martinez.
This! AND the Indians ran out a lineup of 9 Erics Sogard
You’re going to need to update this once the Sox finishing their beat down of the Yankees tonight.
OPS differential was 171 (.787 vs .616), so not in the same league as the others.
can I point out that bregman had an ops of 2.047 and mvp candidate jose ramirez has an ops of .083
I’m genuinely, pleasantly surprised there was a more lopsided 2018 DS than Braves/Dodgers. Even the Braves only win (which I was fortunate enough to see in person; my god that Acuna grand slam) felt hopelessly Dodger-dominant. Maybe it was the frenetic, desperate energy in the ballpark, but I’ve never felt such a strong sense of doom as I did every time the Dodgers came to bat. The little foam tomahawk they gave us was crumpled beyond recognition (I don’t chop, but it made for an excellent stress ball).
My Dad texted me during Game 1 to ask what OPS was, and I just told him, “It’s what the Dodgers are doing every inning,” and he was like “Got it.”
it’s kind of weird that of the 6 LDS series on the OPS chart, 4 of them were matchups between the 2 and 3 seeds. You would think the mismatch series would be moreso the 1 vs WC team.
The only other 1 seed to win like that in the LDS round- the ’98 Yankees. Who won 114 games.
With three divisions and just one wild card team in the division series round, it’s not uncommon for the wild card team to be better than the third division champ. Just using a random starting point I chose: from 2003-2017, 15 of the 30 third seeds had worse records than (one of) the wild card team(s). Two other times, the third seed had the exact same record as the wild card team. Records aren’t everything, but they’re a start.
Using the specifics from that chart:
– The 2018 Indians had the worst record in the AL playoffs. The Astros-Indians gap was bigger than the Red Sox-Yankees gap.
– The 2018 Braves had the worst record in the NL playoffs. The gap wasn’t big, but the Dodgers were in a much better division.
– The 2007 Angels had the same record as the wild card Yankees while not having the Red Sox in their division to contend with. And the Red Sox were actually the top seed, but at the time MLB protected the wild card team if they were from the same division.
That leaves just 2013 Dodgers-Braves as a noticeable 2-3 outlier (with the lower seed actually winning, no less). Things happen! But again, the Braves’ division was significantly worse than the Dodgers’ division.
Right. But how much of a gap is there between the 1 and 2 seeds? Looking at your 2003-2017 sample, 12 of the 30 times, the gap between the 1 and 2 seeds was at least 5 games. With 6 times being at least 8 games.
Also would note of your 15 times, 8 times things were fixed by the Wild Card rules…. So I would say that in the LDS era we’ve probably had matchups like indians/astros only a handful of times.
Personally, I’m not surprised by that. The 4th seed WC team is frequently better than the 3rd seed weak division winner. As a result, it’s often the 2nd seed team getting the biggest advantage in round 1.
Pretty much why I’m in the camp of MLB changing how they do the Playoff seeds.
“This table is incredible to me. It’s incredible to me for two reasons. One, this is a top-ten table, and we have three entries from just this year’s division-series round.”
This makes intuitive sense – you’re looking at the effect of a high-strikeout, low-contact environment on very small (3-5 game) samples. Variance in offensive output should be greater when everyone is trying to slug rather than put the ball in play.
OPS not wOBA? 😉
Some raw-number perspective:
— Houston’s per-game edge of +10.7 times on base is 2.0 more than the next-biggest edge in any series.
— Houston’s per-game edge of +14.7 total bases is 3.7 more than the next-biggest.
For the series:
— Houston had more extra-base hits than Cleveland had hits (14-13).
— Houston had more runs than Cleveland had total bases (21-20).
Obviously, none of it means all that much, in a 3-game span. Hell, Houston got swept by Texas in a 3-game home set this year, combined score of 22-8, 35-17 in hits, 15-8 in XBH.