The Best Setup Guy on the Market
Just because I find it interesting, a comparison:
Joaquin Benoit: 217 batters faced, 30 hits, 6 HR, 11 BB, 75 K
J.J. Putz: 219 batters faced, 41 hits, 4 HR, 15 BB, 65 K
Benoit was marginally better than Putz a year ago. Putz has a significantly better track record than Benoit. Yet, it was essentially a consensus agreement that Benoit was the best setup reliever on the market, and he’s the one Detroit paid a premium to sign early in the offseason. But, given their respective careers, wouldn’t you rather have Putz going forward?
After all, Putz has done this before. In 2006 and 2007, he was one of the best relievers in baseball, non-Rivera division. Over those two seasons, he threw 150 innings, walked 26, and struck out 186. In 2008 and 2009, he had some arm problems, lost some command and velocity, and couldn’t match his previous dominance. This year, healthy again, he returned to something not that far from his prior levels. His 2.87 xFIP was essentially a dead-on match for what he put up in 2007.
For Benoit, though, this was something totally new. His walk rate was half of his previous career low, and his strikeout rate was nearly two batters per nine innings higher than anything he’d ever done before. He had a great year, but it’s the only great year he’s ever had.
Benoit, of course, has had plenty of arm problems himself, so he doesn’t really have that advantage over Putz. It may seem like Benoit is younger because he got to the big leagues at an earlier age, but they were both born in 1977. Ability to get lefties out? Putz can do that, too.
I’m struggling to find any real reason to prefer Benoit to Putz, honestly. Putz has a better track record, had a similar 2010 season, and has proven experience in the closer role (if you’re into that kind of thing). His agent should send the Levinson brothers a Christmas card, because there’s a pretty easy argument to be made that if Benoit can get a three-year deal, Putz deserves one too.
He probably won’t get one, as most big league GMs have figured out that multi-year deals for relievers are a bad idea. But he certainly has the right to ask for one now – he’s just as good, if not better than, the guy who just set the market.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
241 batters faced, 47 hits, 3 HR, 14 BB, 48 K
Essentially a consensus agreement that Benoit was the best setup RP on the market?! Scott Downs has been as solid and consistent a reliever as they come for 5 straight years, the type of consistency guys like Putz & Benoit wish for.
Downs is a type A and prob cannot be evaluated on an apples to apples basis. The market will “penalize” him for his consistency and good health.
What does that have to do with anything? Cameron said Benoit was the consensus agreement top setup man. That’s absurd.
Just because the consensus among the folks who run MLB organizations is absurd doesn’t mean it isn’t the consensus. If that’s what everybody was thinking (and I have no way of knowing if it is, but the fact that the Tigers struck so quickly on Benoit does seem to support that assertion), it’s what they were thinking, even if they shouldn’t have been.
You’re right, he did say “best setup guy on the market”. I was reading best as “most desirable”, and the fact that Benoit comes without the cost of your first round draft pick in a deep and talented 2011 draft, might make Benoit “more desirable” than a pitcher with slightly better numbers but saddled with Type A status.
I think it’s very relevant to the discussion, though perhaps not to the specific point you were contending.
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“- he’s just as good as, if not better than, the guy who just set the market.”
That’s better.
sigh… there’s one in every thread
Ah Dave this is why you’re writing about baseball with the rest of the nerds while the big boys assemble mediocre teams with confusing contracts
He’s from Detroit too, whatcha know.
Seems a little premature of saying that Putz will be a better bargain than Benoit when he don’t know how big a contract Putz will receive.
As a Tigers fan I was pretty confused why they went after Benoit instead of Putz also. Not only for the reasons you mentioned but also he is a hometown guy and also is on a divisional rival. So not only would you be improving your team you would be hurting one of your main competitors too. Who knows though with the way Dombrowski hands out bad contracts maybe he is in the works to sign Putz to a long term deal too. They certainly have room for him in the BP, especially if they intend on putting Coke in the rotation like they say they are.
Putz still has the stink of the Mets on him. He needs at least another year away from that disaster of a franchise before anyone makes a multi-year risk on him…
Most insightful comment of all time.
The major piece of information that’s missing:
2010 GB%
Putz: 48.5
Benoit: 38.9
Career GB%
Putz: 48.3
Benoit: 34.6
I have a hard time believing that the majority of teams would take Benoit or Putz over Scott Downs, contract aside.
As Steve notes above, Downs is Type A, so that cost factors in as well.
Putz struggled through injuries the entire second half of last season. I think that’s fresh in most Gms/writers minds.
And I think they generally suspect some of those injuries may still be with him.
you missed the big picture.
FELIX wins CY YOUNG. How are you not running around the house in your underwear celebrating!?!!??!!?
especially considering you work from home.
I think his wife put an end to those sorts of spectacles.
Law wrote about him having bad knees in his FA preview, which is probably a concern for a 250+ lb guy. Of course Benoit had a shoulder injury which is about as scary an injury as possible for a pitcher, but maybe teams see the knee as more of a ticking time bomb than the repaired shoulder of Benoit
“Most big league GMs have figured out that multi-year deals for relievers are a bad idea.”
I don’t entirely understand this logic. Well, on its face, I do — relievers are inconsistent and you might not return value. But given that so many borderline-mediocre relievers are profiling as Type A or Type B free agents, there’s quickly becoming an added cost to acquiring new relievers every year.
Couldn’t the argument be made that it’s worthwhile to sign a reliever to a contract that might be a year too long, if only to avoid having to sign additional free agent relievers the next year, thereby giving up more draft picks?
I don’t think its safe to say that Benoit was only marginally better than Putz in 2010. In terms of SIERA, which I think is superior to FIP or xFIP, the difference between the two is quite a bit bigger. 1.71 to 2.58.
Id rather have Benoit going forward, but Putz looks like he will probably be the bigger bargain even though I think the deal the Tigers gave Benoit was fine.
I also like Benoit’s higher swinging strike rate, 14.8 to 11.9. Putz was pretty good this past year, though, admittedly.
Dave, you and I both know that people looked at the ERA difference and figured Benoit was twice as good as Putz last season.
Okay, compromise- the Tigers should sign Putz, too!
He’s a Detroit kid as well!
The Tiger bullpen needed an upgrade at the end of the season, so their first move was to move Coke to the rotation. The bullpen is one up and one down, so far. The Tigers need more relief help.
Brandon Lyon’s 3-year $15m contract was widely derided last year, but with Lindstrom going down and Lyon taking over closer duties, it probably worked out value wise. Benoit should probably be the same.