Willingham’s Worth
According to this report, the Nationals have decided not to offer a long-term contract extension to outfielder Josh Willingham. It is also likely that the team will deal Willingham by the start of the 2011 season. Willingham, who turns 32 in February, will enter his final arbitration season next year. He is coming off a $4.6 million contract last season, and with a injury shortened but still successful 2010, the outfielder can probably expect an arbitration reward somewhere in the neighborhood of $6.5 to $7.5 million.
Willingham has been one of the more consistent players in baseball in terms of overall production. From 2006-2010, Willingham has produced between 2.2 and 2.9 WAR in each season with wOBAs ranging only from .363 to .378. Willingham isn’t a good defender, producing a total of 16 runs below average in the corner outfield spots in his career, but with his high-level bat, he manages to contribute at an above-average level year in and year out.
The problem with Willingham has been his inability to remain on the field. In his last five seasons, he has only averaged 509 plate appearances, failing to reach 600 four times and 500 twice. Willingham has struggled with back problems and most recently suffered a season ending knee injury which cut short his 2010. Although his penchant for injuries limits his value, it doesn’t detract from the fact that he’s still a very good bet to produce 2+ WAR. In a way, Willingham reminds me of a poor man’s J.D. Drew. Drew’s 4+ wins in shortened seasons are still very valuable, although people often see the time that he misses as a detractor to his on field value. It’s unfortunate, for sure, but in short seasons, guys like Willingham and Drew are both able to provide good to great MLB performance, making their roster presence well worth the irritating injuries.
Assuming Willingham recovers well from the knee surgery, he should be another good bet to post a 2+ win season. That means he should provide some $2-$4 million in surplus value, depending on his contract. Willingham also would have been a type A free agent this season, according to this release of MLB Trade Rumors’ reverse-engineered Elias rankings. That means that Willingham is a near lock to classify as at least a type B and has a good chance of retaining type A status for next season, serving to increase his value further. Willingham’s production and compensation picks could be worth about $10 million in surplus value, which should be able to bring in a solid, B+ type of prospect.
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Willingham’s low AB totals in 2009 was a function of losing playing time to early in the year to Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns, not injury.
Yeah that was on Acta more than his health, but the overall injury concern remains the same. Best case is 145 games anything over is gravy. Now one option could be a DH for some AL teams with some occasional OF time since he isn’t horrible there. Might be able to keep him healthier that way.
According to Rosenthal, Billy Beane was trying to get Willingham before settling on Dejesus, so you have to figure he was offering Mazzaro+prospect to the Nats and they wanted more than that for him. The Nats seem like a hard team to trade with, they (correctly) know they are going to be a force starting in 2012 with Strasburg, so they appear wary of making deals that aren’t totally lopsided in their favor.
I hear ya that Rizzo is hard to deal with, and that he asks for a certain level of return. But look at what else goes on out there. How does Uggla for Dunn and Infante make sense? Paulino for Barmes? Why should he take two middle relieves like Mazzaro and Marks. That doesn’t seem like enough for a starting CF with OBP skills and good defensive abilities.
I was going to reply that he would be a great fit for the A’s. I see Beane is way ahead of me.
KC probably could’ve gotten more for DeJesus had they waited till after Crawford and Werth were off the table and the free agent market had thinned out.
In other words, Rizzo can very easily get more than Mazzaro/Marks if he waits till later in the offseason.
I’m coming from the A’s side, FWIW.
Here’s a thought: Josh Willingham for Bronson Arroyo. Both players will be in walk years, and they’re fairly close in salary. The Nationals are desperate for pitching, and the Reds need an upgrade over Jonny Gomes.
Granted, I know Walt Jocketty has discussed a possible contract extension with Arroyo, but Arroyo said the agreement isn’t particularly close at the moment, so maybe that will fall through. Does anyone think this trade is doable? I really think it would help both teams.
That makes zero sense for the Nats. Though I do consider the Reds a trade partner. Nats don’t want someone for one year, since they won’t contend in 2011, hence why they are getting rid of Willingham. Also Willingham is open to an extension and will cost less than Arroyo.
Something like Heisey and a young solid pitching prospect would probably work.
Yeah, I think Heisey and a prospect would be a good idea, particularly because trading Willingham leaves a void in the Nats’ outfield that would need to be filled, and giving Heisey a chance at a full time job in Washington isn’t a bad idea. He certainly won’t get that chance in Cincinnati, what with Bruce in RF and Stubbs in CF(and if such a trade went through, Willingham would be the LF and Gomes would become the 4th OF).
I was wondering about a fit with the Reds, but the proposed arb salary seemed prohibitive. I’m a long time Willingham fan and I think he’d be a great fit if we could keep him healthy. Arroyo is a Baker favorite and he’s certainly been consistent for us, but this is a deal I’d be happy to make as a Reds fan. As for its viability, I’ll let wiser heads than mine weigh in on that.
Drew can defend at an above-average level though. So his shortened seasons have definitely been more valuable. How many wins would Willingham be projected for at first?
The same number. The defensive adjustments in WAR assume that an average 1B is a -5 corner OF and a -5 corner OF is an average 1B. *If* WAR is a valid metric, then it’s valid to assume that’s really how The Hammer would play at first.
I actually think Type A status would hurt Willingham’s value. I think it would under-cut his market and make him pretty likely to accept arbitration. If he is Type B, I’d feel comfortable offering him arbitration after next season.
Definitely an undervalued guy.
He could be a guy to accept arbitration after ’11 but if he puts up a vintage Willinghammer season he’s got to go after a free agent deal. He’ll be heading into his age 33 season, it’ll most likely be his first and last chance for a long-term deal.
His baseball ref. list of comparables are a lot of guys who were 1 poor season and done for (Ensberg, Mench, Daubach).
I’d think the Red Sox would look at him if they lose out on Werth and/or can’t work a deal for Adrian Gonzalez. Seems to me a very similar player to good Kevin Millar minus the cowboy-up shenanigans. Fenway’s LF could hide alot of his fielding deficiencies, and he could spell Papi and/or Drew against LHP.
Darn, I would have rather have kept the Hammer! It is nor like the NATs score a ton of runs.