The Blue Jays Should Rebuild
Earlier than they wanted to confront this reality, the Blue Jays are now in offseason mode. Their 2016 campaign was laid to rest yesterday by a rookie with Mark Buehrle’s fastball and a reliever with an unhittable slider, so today is day one of the remaking of the Blue Jays roster. And perhaps more than any other team this winter, they’ve got some big decisions to make.
You know about the two big ones; Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are both eligible for free agency, and in a thin market, both are going to be looking for significant raises. The Blue Jays almost certainly won’t bring back both; they might not bring back either one. Toronto’s potent lineup is going to change, and the 2017 Blue Jays are going to have to take on a different identity than the teams that slugged their way to the ALCS in consecutive seasons.
But the decisions don’t stop at whether to re-sign one of their sluggers; the Jays probably have to decide how aggressively they want to push in on the short term, and whether they’re going to try to keep their current window open, or pivot more towards a long-term outlook that might make 2017 a lesser priority. Bautista and Encarnacion aren’t going to be the decisions; what the team does with those two will be the result of the organization’s larger decision. And in looking at their options, I think there’s a strong case to be made that the Blue Jays should not just tweak the roster this winter, but intentionally take a step back next year.
There are certainly players on the roster who would argue for pushing forward with a win-now philosophy. Russell Martin turns 34 this winter, and based on his career workload behind the plate, he can’t be expected to perform at a high level for too much longer. The 2017 season could very well be his last productive one as a full-time starting catcher, if 2016 wasn’t already that. Troy Tulowitzki has a bit more life left, most likely, but he’s 32, and is more of a good player than a great one now. J.A. Happ (34) and Marco Estrada (33) aren’t likely to keep up their recent performances for too much longer. Francisco Liriano (33) will round out the rotation, and assuming the team picks up Jason Grilli’s option, they’ll have a 40-year-old setup guy.
Even if Bautista and Encarnacion are replaced by younger facsimiles, this team will be inescapably old in many of the key spots on the roster. And that fact means that the team is either going to have to predict when it’s necessary to rebuild, risking blowing things up a year too soon, or have the rebuild thrust upon them, if they end up rebuilding a year too late. While it’s certainly possible that the Jays could be right back in the postseason with a retooled roster next year, I think circumstances suggest the team should be proactive in getting younger, even if that means reducing the likelihood of winning in 2017.
One of the big variables in any decision like this is how the market is likely to act in a given winter. With a dearth of quality free agents but a continuing demand for talent from teams who don’t want to rebuild, prices are likely to be high again, with the price of a win likely over $8 million, maybe even pushing up towards $9 million depending on how the new CBA shakes out. Re-signing either of the team’s sluggers will be expensive, with both almost certain to command between $20 and $25 million per year on multi-year deals. The Blue Jays have about $115 million in committed salaries to about 15 players, and they ran a payroll of around $140 million in 2016, so re-signing either one would put them right up near their likely budgetary limit, leaving them few options for filling the team’s other holes.
And they have real holes. With Michael Saunders also a free agent, the team’s current outfield is something like Melvin Upton Jr. and Dalton Pompey flanking Kevin Pillar; that’s not a very impressive group of hitters. Either first base or DH would be a hole even if the team re-signed one of their two sluggers, with Justin Smoak likely penciled in as a regular at the moment, despite being essentially a replacement-level player. And in the bullpen, the team is going to lose Brett Cecil, weakening a relief group that was already one good arm short.
Even if you bring back Encarnacion and try to make some moves to add depth, you’re going to be looking at a team that projects as a mid-80s winner for 2017, with lots of downside risk given the team’s age. There won’t be money to make sure the team has real depth behind Tulowitzki or Martin, and the team is already dealing with the questionable health of second baseman Devon Travis, who will come to camp rehabbing after knee surgery. If they just bring back Encarnacion and try to fill out the roster with pieces they can fit into the budget, the team will be a fringe contender that could be taken apart by injuries, while relying on players at ages where breakdowns are common. It’s a recipe for potential disaster, and even if things break right, they might simply end up as next year’s version of the Tigers, a good-but-flawed team that falls just short of the postseason.
But there’s another option, and the weak free-agent market sets them up potentially to pivot without needing to enter a long-term rebuild. Because there isn’t much available in free agency this winter, contracts for aging players who still perform well will be easier to move than in winters with lots of available options, and the Jays are setup to take advantage of this market.
Tulowitzki has $78 million over four years remaining on his deal — or $89 million over five years if his 2021 option is picked up, which might be necessary to get him to waive his no-trade clause — but as a roughly +3 WAR player, that’s a reasonable enough price in this market. Martin’s a tougher sell at 3/$60M, but he could probably be moved if packaged with a player who had some positive value; say, Marco Estrada, who will make $14.5 million in the last year of his contract.
Just subtracting all three of those guys from the roster would take the Jays out of Wild Card contention in 2017, most likely, especially since neither Encarnacion or Bautista would re-sign if they saw veterans being shipped out. But it would also remove $40 million from the books in 2018, setting the franchise up to make a few big splashes the next time there are some better younger free agents, guys who could fit into a rebuilt young core better than the senior citizen’s brigade the team currently has.
And if you take a step back in 2017, you can give Dalton Pompey a fully year to evaluate what he might be as a big leaguer. You can work Rowdy Tellez into the lineup in the second half of the year. You can put a placeholder at shortstop for a year while you see how close to the big leagues Richard Urena might be. Heading into 2018, you could have a much better idea of what the team’s young position players could be, and if a couple of those guys develop, you’re in position to get right back into things in 2018 with some strong additions.
Most importantly, the financial flexibility gives the team the chance to lock up Josh Donaldson long term. Despite Bautista being the face of the franchise, Donaldson is the cog that made this team good, and he remains an elite player even now that he’s on the other side of 30. Keeping him from hitting free agency after next year won’t be cheap, but the team can afford one big commitment, and if they let both of this year’s free agents walks, they can keep from having to make the same painful decision after 2018. Yeah, he’d have to be convinced that the tear-down is temporary, but if the money is reallocated wisely, he might be willing to buy into the team’s plan for long-term sustainability.
In 2018, if you have Donaldson flanked by a few young position players who have shown to be ready to play roles on a winning team, and you still have Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez in the rotation, and you have a bunch of money to play with, the Blue Jays could be legitimate contenders again, and for a while. Taking 2017 off to consolidate their roster and build back up could produce another few year run that allows the team more than one chance to bring a World Series title back to Toronto.
If they stick with what they have, and just try to mitigate their losses as best as possible, it’s probably 2017 or bust. They probably won’t have the money to keep Donaldson, and when Tulowitzki and Martin become dead-weight contracts, the team will have to go through a painful rebuild while a large chunk of the payroll is committed to guys who aren’t good enough to get you to the postseason. Perhaps it would come after a 2017 World Series parade, and the cost would be worth keeping this group together for one last run, but I think the Jays have a better chance at a title in the next five years if they surrender 2017 to make the 2018-2020 run more likely.
Better a year too early than a year too late. This is the Jays chance to be proactive and rebuild for the future before they don’t have a choice.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
ehh I’d personally like to see them go for it for one more year, Saunders, EE and Bautista combined for 6 WAR, I feel like that can be replaced reasonably easily
~6 WAR in free agency costs about $50 million a year.
So approximately the amount their payroll should go up from last year in a just and fair world
Or you could try EE, Carlos Gomez, and Pompey and might even improve on that 6 WAR, for about…30M?
“Might” seems to be the operative word. And that’s assuming the Jays re-sign EE and sign Gomez, neither of which looks particularly likely atm.
Right, so not much for the team that owns their network and enjoys far and away the highest television ratings.
The shareholders own the team and network. Jays payroll on the corporate budget and subject to shareholder scrutiny. Not as easy as being private and not accountable to the public
it didnt cost $50 mil for AJ Prelller…just a 30 day suspension. #bargain
Their payroll should be in the 175 Million range given how much extra money they have made with back to back ALCS appearances. Now that gives you an extra 30 Million to play with which makes competing a lot easier.
Trading a Happ or Estrada for a young outfielder still makes a lot of sense if there is an opportunity.
What their payroll will be is what matters, not what you, I or anyone else outside of the Rogers decision-makers thinks it should be.
These guys want 4-6 year commitments. 1-2 years making 20-40 million in additional playoff revenue does not justify and 30 million bump for 4-6 years. Not a lot of valuable FA wanting a 1 yr deal
Seems like you could do most of the above-mentioned 2017 re-tool plan and still try to re-sign Edwin.
Well the issue is that if he saw them shipping out veterans and taking a regroup year, he probably would want to sign elsewhere.
Seems like you could make clear that 2017 was a re-tooling year and that 2018 they’d be right back in the hunt. If they could extend Donaldson that would help make that point clear.
The wild card is the budget. The ownership is a giant telecommunication company that could easily spend 200M$ annually. They have never chosen to. However the massive attendance boost over the last season and a half may have opened some eyes as to the earning potential of the team.
If they only have 20-30M$ to spend it probably doesn’t make sense to give it all to one mid/late 30s slugger.
I read the title and was afraid you were suggesting blowing the team up and starting from scratch. I feel like there should be different terms for a 1-2 year “rebuild,” and a 3-4 year “rebuild.”
You don’t want to waste too many years of Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, and company. But a one year quiet step back, and a big splash 2018 makes a lot of sense.
If the Jays are rebuilding why would they extend a 30+ year old player in Donaldson for likely a 200+mil contract? If they did this plan of trading Tulo, Martin, Estrada, Happ, ect they would be punting the 17 and 18 seasons pretty much. Wouldnt it make way more sense to trade Donaldson (along with Happ, Estrada, ect) for a massive haul of younger more controllable prospects? Wouldnt that be a better idea than having a 30+mil aav player in his 30s if their plan was to rebuild?
I wondered about this as well. Trading Donaldson now would probably get the highest reward. He would be the best FA on the market.
Trading Donaldson this year would net the best package. I think Cameron’s reasoning to keeping him is probably something along the lines of Donaldson being a 4-5 Win player from ages 33-35.
Even if that’s a good medium-term baseball move, I don’t know that ownership would want to take the PR/business hit of doing that.
And they might be right on the business side. At that point, a team that made the ALCS is losing or trading away 5 big name starting position players and 2 starting pitchers all in the same off-season. They’d be throwing away any additional season ticket sales and ratings pop they’re expecting to get next year.
Ehh, they’re on the edge bc they still have some good young SPers. Sanchez, Stroman, Tulo and Donaldson is as good a core as anyone else has. I think they actually needed to be less reliant on the HR. There’s is practically a classic case of living and dying by the long ball.
They could actually sign Trumbo to play 1B and replace half the HRs lost while going with the uber athletic OF of Pillar, Carrera and MUp. Of course it all depends on how they fill out the role players on the rest of the roster but this doesn’t feel like a blow up situation to me.
That foursome would rank somewhere toward the back of the top third “core” groups in the game, and two of the four are going to age out very soon. The Dodgers and Cubs are in a totally different class. Beyond that, they certainly don’t have the best core in their own division, the Indians have a clearly superior group, the Nats’ top four are significantly better (and they have a MUCH better 5-8 going forward), and you’d have a hard time convincing me to take the Blue Jays quartet over the Astros’ and Giants’ either.
I think the decision to sell or not really will come down to whether Shapiro/Rogers think of the Jays as a big market team or not. I mean, they just led the AL in attendance and have more TV viewers than any other team in the league, and it’s not even close. Numbers aren’t always accurate, but I read that there were 3-4M viewers in Canada alone for the Jays games Friday and Saturday, compared to only 2.6M on TBS. They almost outdrew the Cubs-Dodgers game Saturday (6.5M vs 5.9M when you add Canada + US numbers together).
So if they think that they can compete with the big guys, and push the payroll to the 170-180M mark, then there’s really no reason to rebuild. They can afford to spend the 50M in free agency to either bring back their sluggers and replace them, and they should be right up there with Cleveland and Boston competing in the AL. Then if they need to trim down payroll later or open up space for Osuna/Sanchez/Stroman raises, they have money coming off the books over the next few years.
Of course, if they don’t see them as a big market team and want to keep payroll closer to the 140-150 mark, then yeah, they basically don’t have the cash to replace the guys that they’ll lose, and the only real hope is that the aging guys have a bounce-back year, and if they don’t, the 40M to Tulo and Martin will really weight down on the team.
the idea that the Jays are a small market team is something that rogers has somehow been able to convince a whole bunch of the fans of, even though it’s ridiculous by any measure.
if rogers decides to act like a small market team again this offseason, they can say goodbye to the massive fan resurgence of the past 2 years.
if they’re interested in corporate asset value, going cheap now would be the stupidest move they could make. Let’s see what they do.
That fan resurgence came back with one good year.
fool me twice,,,,
Yeah its a pretty ridiculous notion that they are a small market team. I don’t know the details of their television deal, but the city of Toronto is the fourth largest media market North America, behind only New York, Chicago, and LA, all cities that have two teams. That is before considering the fact that the Jays fanbase is basically all of Canada, so they have a media market of around 35 million people, larger than any other team by a long shot. They probably have the most fans of any team in MLB.
They have no TV deal. Basically, the TV network owns the team, and just shuffles money between divisions. On the season, they averaged 1M viewers per game, which would be about 3-4X more than any other team. Taking the Fangraphs numbers from the August article, the Jays would have the same viewership numbers as the next 5 teams combined. Now I don’t think that’s quite fair as the US numbers don’t include the national telecast games, but the team has an awful lot of fans, yeah.
They have no deal because Rogers owns the team and the radio and television networks (and the cable provider (half the time) and the stadium).
So Rogers is pretty much perfectly vertically integrated and receives every possible penny that could be earned through baseball or baseball media related activities.
The only teams that could possibly have a better deal are the teams that signed mega sucker contracts for the networks (but of course those are unsustainable).
I have a really hard time seeing this happen. Even if it makes sense in a vacuum, the success of the Jays is basically the main thing helping Rogers make up the ginormous losses on their awful NHL TV deal.
So if they decide to slash payroll and rebuild right now (which would basically demolish any of the gains they’ve made in viewership and attendance over the last 2 years) they would be torpedoing the value of one of the best revenue generators in their portfolio.
I have a super hard time believing they’ll let that happen.
It doesn’t make sense in a vacuum either. ‘Rebuilding’ implies there’s incentives to do so. When MIN, SD, PHI, ATL, CIN, MIL, and OAK are all going nowhere next year, if you rebuild now you’re getting the 8th pick and alienating your fans who went through a 20+ playoff gap.
They’ll keep one either JB or EE and replace the other one with a similar lumbering slugger on the market (a glut of lumbering sluggers this offseason will bring their price down). Their pitchers just had the lowest ERA in the AL. They underachieved Pythag in each of the past 2 playoff seasons. You simply don’t rebuild in this case. I assure you The Blue Jays brass is reading this article now and laughing.
I am sorry but the Jays are not one of the best revenue generators in their portfolio… Rogers makes billions a year in revenue from their other departments, the Jays only make around 100 mill. The Jays are a drop in the bucket for them. Sure it gives them good branding and marketing putting the Jays logo on things, but really they would still be making billions if they sold the Jays.
I kind of like this idea although I think it would be pretty unpopular with other fans. Trade Tulo, Martin, Estrada, Happ and get the picks for Bautista and EE.
Then, next year they can try stretching out Osuna and Biagini to see how they fit as starters, start Liriano to see if he can recover value, take a few other low risk shots that could be tradeable next year.
The only thing is that this has to be done under the guise of spending big in 2018. The blue jays have the money. This would have to be a be bad one year and great 3, rather than be great 1 and bad 3.
I would argue as a counterpoint that the free agents they have the best shot of signing over the next two years are Bautista, Encarnacion and Saunders.
Trading Happ as a way of re-tooling (especially if it nets a player that could be used to displace one of Martin or Tulo) is an interesting idea.
I’m really skeptical of Biagini or Osuna ever being used in non bullpen roles though.
Yea, the jays don’t seem like an attractive FA destination, especially in 2018 when the yankees presumably will be ready to spend big.
However, they are getting old. There is a good chance that they bring the band back together and they slide really quickly. It might be a good idea to just take action now. I think it is likely that trading guys now while they have a chance would lead to a better record over the next 5 years than not.
what are you getting by trading those guys?
unless you are getting key core pieces for a future contender, why bother?
I’d guess part of the calculus for doing this would be gauging what is out there on the market for them. You are looking for cheap controllable guys and prospects that are close. Then, they would lay the foundation for FA spending in 2018.
You are freeing up dollars so that you can buy core pieces for a future contender … at least that’s the argument. Dumping Martin, Tulo and not resigning EE and Bautista is a truck load of savings.
Who in your right mind would you trade Tulo for? He is rock solid defensively, also making everyone around him better defensively. Can you even imagine Travis’ defense without Tulo there? dear lord. And he has the potential to be a .280-.300 guy if he can stay healthy. There is just nobody in the league you can put at SS that anyone is willing to give up, that is a better option than Tulo.
From a baseball standpoint – there is an argument to rebuild, but from a business stand point – it would probably be foolish.
The team has really been on fire since late last year with attendance and TV ratings. They’d be crazy to rebuild and hope all the fans come back again.
Other aspect to consider is the relative youth and strength of systems with the Yankees and Red Sox. There might be a year or two window before the Yankees are back to being a top contender and it can be very hard to compete with those teams when they have young/cheap good players to go along with their mega budgets.
Yea, any splash in 2018 would involve outbidding the yankees.
The only real counterpoint is the risk of investing and failing. It’s one thing to lose your fans with a $200M in contract commitments and a mediocre farm. It’s quite another to lose your fans with $400M in contract commitments and an eviscerated farm.
No offence but this seems like a terrible idea. They have 5 quality starters, they have a solid bullpen group (Biagini, Grilli, Osuna), and all they need is a LF, a 1B and a DH. Not exactly the toughest positions to find guys.
The smart move is to sell high on Happ, trade him for a young position player (and given that he’s coming off an outstanding year and set to make 13M for 2 years, should have good value), and move Osuna to the rotation. You can use the 13M to fill up another roster hole, or add to the bullpen.
There’s really no reason for the Jays to rebuild. This is the time Rogers has to capitalize on the team as attendance is leading the league and they’re making a ton of money. They’ll need to raise payroll a bit, certainly, but nobody is expecting them to re-sign Bautista and EE, and Saunders wasn’t even that great thanks to his second half. So I’ll have to agree to disagree that now is the time to rebuild.
They’re better off making short term plays for 1B/DH, especially with Tellez as you said so close.
This is basically what I said above that was received critically. LOL
I agree that blowing the Jays up seems like something that would be hard to justify, frankly.
Should definitely retool. If they moved Happ or Estrada for an offensive piece that coul fill a hole they would free up $14.5Mil while also filling a hole. Then they could replace Estrada with a cheaper free agent alternative and still have a rotation of Happ-Stroman-Sanchez-Liriano. Not a bad top 4
Word on the street here says… Encarnacion is a done deal to Boston… Bautista isn’t wanted enough… a money-based deal for Votto is in the cards, and they will have cash to deal with a donaldson extension and the outfield situation = compete again in 2017.
Which street is the word on?
They actually had a town called Joe Batt’s Arm in the Canadian Province of Newfoundland, on Fogo Island. They changed the name in 2011. I’m in favor of re-changing it to Joe’s Bat Flip though.
And is it “on the street” like roadkill…or…?
The problem though for the Jay’s is that they are owned by a corporation and are an extremely visible and successful commodity for the company.
Sure cut payroll by 50-60 million, but overall revenue generated by the franchise, primarily driven through subscription to their RSN could then fall by hundreds of millions of dollars if not competitive. Who answers for that – not to mention the Rogers corporate image is going to be massively tarnished with such large cutbacks.
Hopefully you’ll see some movement by the corporation to establish themselves where they belong, as a top 5 payroll team given that they had the top attendance in the American League and by far the highest RSN viewership numbers in all of baseball.
Behind the scenes the company’s CEO was fired this past week and replaced with a more malleable leader who is said to be more open to using the team as a positive branding tool for the corporation.
I see them pursuing a dual track, signing a few high visibility free agents ( Edwin? ) and perhaps being more aggressive in the international market ( Lourdes Gurriel ? ), and perhaps taking on some onerous contracts that other less wealthy teams might want to move.
Confused about what you’re saying concerning Donaldson. You write “keeping him from hitting free agency after next year won’t be cheap”, but he’s A4 in 2018. Earliest FA year is 2019. And when you talk about 2018 I can tell whether you believe they’d have to extend his contract in order to have him around.
Anyway, it’s a bit of a nitpick, because I might just be confused by the phrasing, but maybe worth clarifying.
Best rotation in the AL this year remains intact and actually better than what they started the season with this year – Sanchez Stroman Happ Estrada Liriano.
Backend of the bullpen remains intact with Osuna-Biagini and a cheap option on Grilli if they want.
They have exactly 3 significant free agents – the only one was even an average contributor this year (Encarnacion ~4war). Bautista and Saunders both contributed only 1-1.5 wins to this ALCS team this year. These are the kinds of contributions that a good front office should be able to replace for cheap, especially if they value defense correctly.
Not only did they lead the league in attendance, but have raised prices too, and have at least $40-50m in available payroll and likely more to fill the handful of slots that are FAs this year. If they chose not to spend that payroll this offseason after the fan response this year they would face a fan revolt.
Your figure for this year’s final payroll is wrong btw – they were closer to $160m by the end of the year than $140.
And getting a handful of ok prospects back for Happ/Estrada/Martin barely even helps a rebuild anyways – the likelihood of being able to get a core piece of a future contender back in a deal for them is low.
Only someone obsessed with prospects over winning would suggest that it was time for a rebuild. It makes no sense.
Yeah, I think the best chance lies in dealing from the rotation strength to shore up the OF hole (Dodgers would seem like an ideal trading partner, as they have an excess of OF and potentially a need for a SP if Hill walks). You do that, move Biagini to the rotation as the #5 guy, and throw the money you have left at EE, and you can field a better team than this year. The only question at that point becomes if they still have enough money to re-sign Donaldson while still paying big money for Martin and Tulo, as well as paying for the arbitration raises of Travis, Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna.
Sure, in tact for a year, then they lose pitchers, hitters keep aging, Donaldson impending free agency and it starts to feel philliesish. No Howard contract but a lot of injury risk/ age decline risk at key positions. One Donaldson injury and its the worst offense in the AL next year for example.
While I don’t disagree with any points, I do feel they have to go for it again in 2017 with basically this roster; preferably with EE or at least Saunders DHing. Then determine at the trade deadline whether they do a moderate rebuild or push in.
Some of this might be out of their hands, whether Encarnacion or Bautista want to re-sign, for instance. But it seems like they could stretch this out a few more years by keeping Encarnacion and adding a pitcher and corner outfielder with the money saved on letting Bautista walk. Honestly, his 2016 production won’t be that hard to replace. As for the rotation, it still sets up to be the best in the AL East even if they don’t add anyone. Stroman and Sanchez at the top is as good as any team the AL and they have more depth than the Red Sox, their likely top competitor in the East. It’s going to be hard for the front office to justify tearing this thing down as their first choice if they can pretty easily put together a team that looks like a contender.
Sounds like a good idea, but then you remember Adam Lind is a free agent so there’s really no need for the Jays to rebuild if they snag him!
I am a Blue Jays fan, so I am biased, but there is no way they should rebuild. As others have stated, they only have a few holes in their lineup. The pitching is very good. They just need to resign Encarnacion and get one more hitter and they are right back in playoff contention next year.
If the Blue Jays need to rebuild then 3/4 of the teams in the MLB need to as well. I don’t think anyone can name 10 teams in a better position to compete next year than the Blue Jays.
Encarnacion will be 34 coming off the lowest contact rate of his career and will command a 4-5 year deal. All of that is scary for ~15% of your payroll.
No need for a team with that payroll to rebuild fullscale. They have so many assets! Donaldson a perennial MVP candidate, round out the the IF with Tulowiskey and Travis. I think that’s probably the best IF in the ALE if not the AL. Does it really matter who you put in the OF at that point? And their rotation/bullpen are great, really loved watching Ozuna do his thing this year. Being anti-Canada is not a great look dave, and I look forward to seeing Fan Graph’s ranking for the bluebirds in spring 2017 so we can look back on this post.
It is obvious that the Blue Jays should rebuild.
Signed,
Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Rays Fans
This is something that has been talked about obviously, but the Jays are in a fairly unique position in that a rebuild isn’t so obvious. With the renewed interest in the Jays they were #1 in the AL in attendance, and averaged about 1 million viewers per game (crushing any American team in the process). A good Jays team attracts massive amounts of interest, and it makes a top-5 payroll a feasible option.
The 1994 strike cost the Jays a lot, they lost the fanbase they had built up and went into a death spiral, ending with missing the playoffs for 21 years.
It’s clearly not a good idea to be trading prospects, but we’ve already seen Shapiro leverage his payroll to acquire Liriano, Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez without giving up anything of real value, as well as sign two of the best pitchers of last year’s free agent class without a long term deal or giving up any picks.
From the looks of it Shapiro knows this team needs to get younger, but also understands there are unique market forces at play here, a rebuild could cost them so more more than simply a few years of being non-competitive.
I can see where the case for rebuilding is reasonable. However, it seems pretty unlikely that a strong enough case can be made to convince much of the Jays’ fan base to buy in, myself included.
This seems like a real bad idea given it’s taken almost 20 years to get the fans to show up again. To sell it off would crush this rejuvenated fanbase. This team could easily be retooled and be a contender next year.
Nothing but love and respect for Dave. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed countles articles that you’ve written but this one felt like you tried too hard to justify your original position.
If you look at the Jays’ roster, next year’s roster has most of the same players coming back save for the 7 WAR from Dickey (1), Saunders (1.4), Bautista (1.4), EE (3.9).
The rotation has the same 4 with Liriano replacing Dicky which can be seen as an upgrade. You pointed out possible regression from Estrada and Happ, but the sample size is nearly at 1.5 seasons and the stats are showing that what they’re doing arent flukes. The bullpen might be a problem but Osuna and Biagini should be anchoring it. Bullpens aren’t that hard to fix and I could definitely see Shapiro and Atkins taking a few fliers and bringing back Benoit and Grilli.
The rest of the position players are untouched other than the aforementioned players. In the outfield, the LF and RF candidates are Pompey, Upton and Carrera and all have them have shown signs of being a quality starter. Bringing in a veteran on a 1 year deal or an opt-out contract and leaving a spot open and leaving one spot open for the 3 candidates looks like an easy fix. We might lose some of Bautista’s offense, but both positions will have improved defense. 1B and DH continue to be holes but luckily for the Jays, there are many options in FA who are worth a flier and should be availble like Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Logan Morrison or Adam Lind (from MLBTR).
All in all, the window for this team looks to be wide open. Yes, the players are getting older, but it doesn’t look like Martin, Tulo, JD, Liriano, Estrada or Happ are going to completly fall apart. Besides, there are many “young” players such as Pillar, Travis, Osuna, Biagini, Sanchez, Stroman and its not unlikely that they will improve (especially the last two). Tellez and Urena dont look like locks for 2018 and the farm system really isnt that deep. Shatkins have shown they can make shrewd moves in the off season and with another one or two, this team is good enough to make the postseason next year and as the past few years have shown, the playoffs are a crapshoot.
Easier said than done, but here’s what I would love to do:
Trade Happ for an OFer who is younger with nice upside (so, cheaper and younger is what I’m getting at). This addresses an area of weakness (OF) since the team should let Bautista walk and take the draft pick compensation.
Then I sign Rich Hill for 3 years to fill that gap in the rotation left by trading Happ.
I also try to sign someone like Brandon Moss to add a power lefty bat who can play 1B/DH. This is, at most, a 2 year deal. This also helps to offset the loss of Encarnacion while getting you another comp pick.
Lastly, I try to sign Dexter Fowler to a 3-year deal.
So, subtract Happ, Bautista, Encarnacion, Saunders.
Add Hill, Fowler, Moss, young OFer in Happ trade, 2 comp picks.
My thought would be to double-down while they still have control of Donaldson. Sanchez and Stroman are two of the more valuable long-term pieces around. Seems like there would be a way to convert that into more value over a shorter term. In an earlier article, Dave talked about the Diamondback rebuilding. If you are the Blue Jays, do you consider using Stroman to get someone like Pollack plus some bullpen help? Or McCutchen+Nova? Or Dozier+Santana?
How long does it take to rebuild the farm without trades? Spend on intl FA, draft well, maybe trade a guy like happ. The current group could at least be .500/playoff contender for 2 years. Enough young pieces that FA stopgaps wouldn’t be hard to stay competitive. So really, without killing it, a 3-5 year window of winning baseball. By then they can surely build a solid farm.
exactly. you rebuild your core by drafting well.
Living in Chicago I can tell you this has been the white Sox thought process and it hasn’t worked well.
Another possible option is to wait until the trade deadline and either buy or sell then. If anything, teams seem to get a greater return at the deadline. The risk is that players lose value in between but that is perhaps better than prematurely punting the season.
The Jays look to be quite a bit better than the Orioles, Yanks and Rays. I wouldn’t advise trading prospects for one more run or anything like that, since the Red Sox look to be clearly better, but so long as they’re projected to be in striking distance of a wild card spot they should keep the band together
I agree on the rebuild, but not the way Dave proposes one. The key to rebuilding is getting young talent that is cost controlled, preferably multiple pieces for each player that has surplus value that is traded.
Trading Tulo and Martin gets you none of this. Its a salary dump, pure and simple and you need to spend the money in FA and pay top dollar (market value) to replace them since they don’t have the prospects. It gets you nowhere. They are owned by a publicly traded company and their payroll is part of the corporate budget so can’t risk the wrath of the shareholders by bumping payroll too much , unlike some teams who are privately owned and not accounted to public shareholders.
Trading Donaldson, Happ and Estrada in a weak 3B and SP FA market gets you plenty though. Heck, more than the Yankees got in their sell. Lot of surplus value there. You think what the Red Sox might consider to give up for Donaldson?
The idea of extending Donaldson long term is not crazy, but baseball is not basketball. One elite player gets you nowhere. Look at the Angels and Trout. Also, if they couldn’t afford Encarnacion, they are unlikely to be able to afford Donaldson. One would also imagine they explored longer terms deal after last year and found Donaldson not that interested in what they were offering. The price has certainly went up. Only 2 years of control left, but his trade value will never be higher.
Trade Donaldson, Happ and Estrada for some top prospects. Then replace some holes with affordable options like Rich Hill, Mike Napoli, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Beltran with the money saved from Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson. Depending on what you get in terms of prospects, its possible 1-2 may be ready to help in 2017 or 2018. If thats at C or SS, then you can consider moving Tulo and Martin
Is Bautista really that significant of a loss from this team? The guy was worth under 2 war this season for a playoff team.
Who is giving him this monster contract that is expected? It isnt 2006 anymore.
Encarnacion can be resigned as well, if that is what they want. This team really doesnt need to rebuild. Building for 2018? Perhaps; however, you can probably compete at the same time.
No doubt the Blue Jays are in a tight spot and depending on the off season, Donaldson may choose 2018 elite free agency over resigning which not only kills the Jays but also destroys trade value as no team will trade for a FA elect, certainly not elite prospects.
In the end I feel for the Jays fans, they are all in at the moment and to get knocked out is a horrible feeling, good luck to them next year though.
I am happy with Franklin Barreto at the moment, 20yrs old got to AAA and did exceptionally well, hard to get a SS that steals 30 bags including 4 in 7 in the AFL, hits high average and OBP and can drive 10-15 home runs, while also improving significantly in defense to stick in the middle infield. Graveman has shown on enough occassions that if he gets his control right he can dominate for large spells and he is very cheap for long. I miss JD but our window is 2018 with a lot of built up talent.