The Braves Strike a Bargain With Josh Donaldson
One year ago, Josh Donaldson was coming off of a very good season, hitting 50% better than league average on his way to 5.1 WAR despite missing six weeks early in the year with a right calf injury. If Donaldson had hit free agency then, he would have been the best position player on the market and likely would have bested J.D. Martinez’s contract despite being a couple of years older. But he didn’t, and after an injury-riddled 2018, the soon-to-be-33 year-old surveyed the market, and opted for a one-year, $23 million deal with the Atlanta Braves, per Ken Rosenthal.
Donaldson faced a difficult decision this winter. He could have tried to cash in on his previous success and get the highest guarantee possible. In our review of the Top 50 Free Agents, both the crowd and Kiley McDaniel assumed that route, and predicted three year deals with an average annual value between $18 and $20 million. It’s possible that Donaldson preferred the Braves for personal reasons, having grown up in Alabama. Holding out for a better deal would have included some risk for Donaldson if this year’s market proves to be slow like last year’s did. The middle ground with a player opt-out after one season might have made the most sense, but that also might have taken more time to develop and lessened the guarantee in the first year. The deal Donaldson did strike with the Braves is not devoid of risk, however.
By settling for a one-year deal now, Donaldson is betting on himself. He’s betting that he’s still the player who put up the second-most WAR in baseball from 2013 to 2017, averaging nearly seven wins per season. Donaldson did show some of that form with Cleveland at the end of the year, putting up a 149 wRC+ in the season’s final month. Those 60 September plate appearances were the only PAs for Donaldson in the second half as a strained left calf put him on the disabled list in late May. Donaldson isn’t wrong to bet on himself. Here are his stats since 2013. Spot the outlier.
| Season | Team | PA | HR | BB% | K% | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Athletics | 668 | 24 | 11.4 % | 16.5 % | 147 | 7.2 |
| 2014 | Athletics | 695 | 29 | 10.9 % | 18.7 % | 130 | 5.7 |
| 2015 | Blue Jays | 711 | 41 | 10.3 % | 18.7 % | 154 | 8.7 |
| 2016 | Blue Jays | 700 | 37 | 15.6 % | 17.0 % | 157 | 7.6 |
| 2017 | Blue Jays | 496 | 33 | 15.3 % | 22.4 % | 151 | 5.1 |
| 2018 | Blue Jays | 159 | 5 | 13.2 % | 27.7 % | 105 | 0.8 |
| 2018 | Indians | 60 | 3 | 16.7 % | 16.7 % | 149 | 0.5 |
Donaldson has been consistently great except for a short period at the beginning of the year. In context, September doesn’t look like a fluke, but rather a continuation of what Donaldson can do when he’s healthy. Donaldson’s health is a big question, however. In each of the last two seasons, Donaldson has hit the disabled list, suffering from calf injuries in both legs that could linger into future seasons. And he’ll turn 33 years old next month, likely making him more of a risk to get hurt or simply decline.
There are many way to look at aging baseball players. The below graph shows one perspective, with the number of two-win player seasons by age over the last five years.
The numbers are pretty steady from age-25 through age-30, years we would normally consider a player’s prime. After 30 years old, we see precipitous drops in each year down to 33, where Donaldson is right now. This paints a rather bleak picture for Donaldson’s outlook this season and in the future. The good news is that even with a decline from his prime, Donaldson should still be a very useful player. The Steamer projections know about Donaldson’s difficult 2018 season, and still project a very good, 4.5 WAR player. At $23 million, that production would be a bargain. And Donaldson isn’t just a good value for the Braves at that price in 2019; because the Blue Jays elected to trade the third baseman rather than extend him a qualifying offer, the Braves will have the opportunity to make that offer at the end of next season and either retain a very good player for under $20 million or receive a draft pick should he sign elsewhere.
If Donaldson does indeed meet his projections, he might be in line for the same type of deal his former teammate Edwin Encarnacion signed a few years back. In 2016, Encarnacion put up a 136 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR in his age-33 season, then landed a three-year deal worth $60 million. If Donaldson can do that, he’ll end up with four years and around $80 million, and make close to 50% more than he might have in guarantees this offseason. As there was with Encarnacion, there is some risk that a qualifying offer, and its attendant draft pick compensation, could chill Donaldson’s market next offseason. But he has made close to $56 million over the last four years in arbitration; one could argue that he has already moved into the realm of life-changing money. That might have made betting on himself to get one more big shot at free agency seem like a worthwhile risk.
For the Braves–as well as many other teams that didn’t sign Donaldson–this deal is pretty close to a no-brainer. The club came out of its rebuild in a very strong position last year and surprised many by winning the division. There should be a lot of competition in their quest to repeat, as Philadelphia is expected to spend big this winter, and the Nationals will still have a solid core even with the likely departure of Bryce Harper. The Braves were able to take advantage of the Phillies fading and the Nationals falling apart in 2018, but it might take more than 90 wins to take the division a year from now. Donaldson could greatly help that cause.
Last year, the Braves received better than expected performance at third base from Johan Camargo, who put up a 3.3 WAR season with a 115 wRC+. If Donaldson hits his projection, he’s more than a win upgrade over Camargo’s performance last season. The gap between the two players’ expected performance is even greater when you consider that Camargo is projected closer to average this season. Plus, his xwOBA was considerably lower than his wOBA last year, indicating he might have been getting a bit lucky on contact. Even if that luck evens out, a trade by the Braves isn’t inevitable as Camargo represents insurance at multiple positions should Donaldson get injured, Dansby Swanson fail to develop, or Ozzie Albies‘ second half woes carry over into 2019. Even without those issues, Camargo can serve as a utility player, providing depth at multiple positions.
Even after signing Donaldson, the Braves are still looking at under $110 million in committed payroll for next season, a figure that is lower than last season’s already low sum. The club should have plenty of money to address other issues on their roster if they don’t want to deal prospects. They can still add a proven starting pitcher, and will probably need to in order to compete with the Nationals, but the offseason probably couldn’t have started off any better for the Braves. In Josh Donaldson, the team is getting a potential star without a significant long term commitment. And if it all breaks right, Donaldson’s bet on himself could well pay off.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Excellent move by the Braves. Wish the Cards had signed him, but I expect geography may have been a factor. I feel sure the Braves will make a QO next year for an extra draft pick and the resulting slot money.
Hard not to like this if you’re a Braves fan. No long-term commitment, possible bonus for 2020, and the payoff for 2019 has the potential to be significant.
And they landed McCann for 2 million. Not a bad start for the Braves at all.
Love this move as it addresses a question mark in the lineup, and gives Riley more time to develop/learn LF. More imortantly, it’s a short term move that cost zero prospects. Not to mention, the cost averages out less with B-Mac taking only $2 mill to come back. Also, JD and BMac are plus defenders w/ strong veteran presences that can’t be overlooked
Hard to understand how 29 other teams couldn’t do better than this. I think Mr. Edwards’ guess that JD wanted to play for Atlanta is pretty likely to be true.
Marlins..
But it is hard to understand the other 28!
Indians (and pretty much the whole AL Central), Diamondbacks, Mariners, Blue Jays (bridges burned)), Orioles.
That’s just off the top of my head without doing any research. Honestly, I doubt that were more than a handful of teams that would have been willing to give Donaldson $20+ million for one year or $35-40+ million for multiple years.
And the teams that already have entrenched third basemen – Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, Rockies, Athletics, Reds, Nationals.
To many of the remaining teams he would be a fallback from Machado so signing him early was not plan A. Maybe other teams (Texas? Seattle?) made bids but why go there?
Donaldson saw good money, few restrictions, a key role on a contender, and certainty for the holidays. He had control and he used it well.
I started nodding in agreement with this, and then I started running through the teams. There are 7 teams with no need at all (Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, Rockies, Nationals, A’s, Reds), 10 teams that aren’t ready to make a playoff push and have little need for a one-year player at that enormous price tag (Orioles, Royals, White Sox, Marlins, Tigers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Twins), 5 teams that aren’t likely to splurge $23 million/year on someone with health risks (Brewers, Cleveland, Rays, Pirates, D-Backs), 2 teams with promising youngsters at third (Red Sox, Blue Jays), and 3 teams in the Machado/Harper derbies and probably want to know if either of them will take their money first (Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals). Some of these teams wind up in more than one category, too.
That leaves…the Braves, Mets, and the Angels, although the Angels are probably attempting to upgrade their pitching first, and 3rd base isn’t a huge priority for the Mets. So while it was definitely a good deal for the team, I think it makes sense that the Braves were the first mover on this type of deal.
Good synopsis. I thought it pretty much came down to those three teams plus maybe Milwaukee. I predicted that the Angels would sign him, mostly because of their seeming affinity for veteran position players and the fact that they have a DH slot so they can partially hide any potentially recurring calf issues he might have over a full season. I guess Atlanta isn’t overly worried about his legs holding up at 3B though.
So maybe they’re thinking of this as a prelude to trading Camargo, but I suspect Camargo might get a lot of playing time next year split between a bunch of positions. I wouldn’t be surprised he logs a good 200+ PAs at 3rd base.
Yeah, I don’t think they will trade Camargo.
I think your suspicions on Camargo are appropriate. Braves gonna use him as that high quality utility player that most strong teams have. 40 games at 3B. 30 or 40 at SS. Time in LF. Braves don’t need to trade.
Angels don’t really have a DH slot open, see: Pujols, Albert.
The H in DH stands for hitter.
If the Angels start Pujols, they’re not trying to win.
Maybe with a new manager, they bench him and don’t care about the sunk cost? Some folks still look at his somewhat respectable counting stats and his salary and decide they must play him.
Pardon if I’m rusty on my info here, but won’t Ohtani be able to hit while recovering from Tommy John?
Ohtani won’t be available to DH for a few months of the regular season – recovering from TJ.
Obviously, it helped that the Braves had Alex Anthopoulos as a GM.
As a Nats fan, I tip my cap to the Braves for this signing. As the saying goes “there is no such thing as a one year overpay” and Donaldson’s upside is still something to dream on. I can see why the Nats didn’t get into this market – any $$ going to third base is going to be put into trying to extend Rendon – who at this point I’d rather have than Donaldson. Still, the Braves just got a bit tougher on paper.
Something that I would really like to see is someone talk to a lot of baseball players about what motivates them in free agency, answering somewhat systematically questions like is it only just the highest offer, what about home town discounts, and whether players regard a certain amount as sufficiently life-changing amounts of money to change their calculations.
We do a lot of speculating based on what we might do with little anecdotal bits about player comments after they signed, but I would really love to see a thoughtful piece based on conversations with current and retired players, agents, and front office folks.
There is no way a current player would be candid enough to say they just took the highest offer. My bet is the overwhelming majority of players would severely undersell the influence the total dollar amount had on them.
Zack Greinke basically said that.
Maybe this isn’t as big a shocker as it seems. After all, in his previous run in free agency three years ago, Greinke admitted that money is “obviously the No. 1 thing. I could play for the worst team if they paid the most.
http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/66835/zack-greinke-signs-with-surprise-the-diamondbacks
I think it is well established that Greinke is a little bit strange in comparison to most major leaguers.
“There is no way a current player would be candid enough”
Then make it an anonymous survey. I agree with Johnnie T that there is a mountain of potential data on this topic that we are missing and replacing with nearly meaningless speculation.
My guess is that, even if they were being candid, they would have a pretty diverse list of priorities. Just like regular people with multiple job offers, it’s a different combination of money, culture fit, geographic area, having to move kids, etc. I doubt you would get any scientific kind of consistency.
I have a toilet to flush millions down, give it to me
Just like everyone else here, I agree this is a really smart move for the Braves. Like everyone else, I think Donaldson is a smart gamble on a one-year deal because when healthy, the bat is magic. But a small part of that is because Austin Riley might need some more time in AAA. This gives the Braves a little bit longer to evaluate Riley, in addition to potentially giving the Braves some excellent production this year.
Or conversely, it makes it easier to trade him if you have two viable everyday 3B on the roster in 2019.
I dont follow the Braves all that closely but what would be the reason for Riley needing more time in AAA? Looking at his stat line he demolished AA pitching and was still pretty darn good after moving to AAA last year (127 wRC+ in 324 PA’s). He seems like a no brainer to make the jump to MLB. If it werent for service time nonsense I would expect him to compete for the job in spring training just based on his performance so far.
Is there something else about him?
There are two reasons:
1) He has strikeout problems. Anyone running a 29% K rate in the minors is running an uphill battle once they start facing off against major league hitters. Some of this is probably not fixable…he’s just a little bit stiff. But Kiley has noted that he has improved quite a bit with coaching (and he would know!) so I would hope that he would improve with some more seasoning.
2) His defense needs work. He’s not unplayable in the field–for example, he’d be better than Andujar if he came up tomorrow–but he isn’t great.
He also ran a 8% BB rate so I don’t know how big a deal the K’ s are. Especially when you consider he was playing agaisnt guys ~6 years older than him in AAA.
Leaving him in AAA probably doesnt hurt anything but he seems to already be above that level.
Sort of. The walk rate isn’t that predictive of future majors success (because lots of players just wait out minors pitching with poor control), but K rate is. And I think that his age is part of the reason why he will improve if he hangs out in AAA for a while. I mean, he’d also probably improve in the majors, but I suspect Donaldson will be better than Riley next year anyway.
A high K rate with a high BB rate is much different than just a high K rate though. It has been shown that having a high BB rate greatly offsets the high K rate in terms of being predictive. So Riley’s 8% BB rate tends to suggest the high K rate might not be the hindrance it normally would be. A recent example of that would be George Springer.
But there is almost no question Riley will spend to first couple months in the minors regardless just for the purposes of messing with his service time. So the question of how ready he is will likely answer itself pretty quick.
(i also think we are not giving him enough credit for what he did at AA. Which often tells you more about a prospect than AAA)
I’m not aware that the higher BB rate helps being predictive. Where did you learn that? My understanding, based on the KATOH research, was that K rates mattered a lot and walk rates mattered only a little.
I think Riley could be a really good hitter, but I think a lot of what makes him so exciting has to do with his age. I think the Braves are (wisely) set on not blocking him. I just don’t know if he’s ready to step in and crush major league hitting right away, mostly based on the K rates.
Chris St John studied it in depth. Cistulli and him discused it on a FG podcast a few years ago.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-staying-totally-objective-with-chris-st-john/
http://platoonadvantage.com/2012-articles/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout-rates-tell-us-about-prospects-recap.html
Apparently posting links gets you comment put in moderation limbo so if it doesnt show up go check out Chris St.John on Beyond the Box score. He did a very in dpeth study on BB and K rates for prospects and what it says about the future (Cistulli even had him on a FG podcast to discuss it)
His basic conclusion, not striking out is good, but its no substitute for taking a walk. being a high walk guy turns out better than being a low K guy (obviously if you can do both, even better lol)
That’s interesting. I wonder how he wound up with such different conclusions than Chris did with KATOH.
One thing I will say: Chris found in later iterations of KATOH that a guy who succeeds at the higher levels, despite a big K rate, tends to eventually do okay in the majors (at least relative to the high bust rate of prospects of all stripes). The key is “eventually.” I don’t think Riley’s problems are insurmountable, I just don’t think he’s quite ready to go.
I don’t agree that an 8% BB rate is a “high walk guy”.
Using the Fangraphs leaderboards, for non-pitchers in 2018 the total MLB BB% was 8.6% (and the total MLB K% was 21.3%).
I wonder if Donaldson made a quiet gentleman’s agreement that they wouldn’t offer him a QO if he signed for 1 year. I would ask for that if I was him.
I think that isn’t allowed, and the Braves of all teams would not want to bend/break rules.
Also, the QO penalty just doesn’t have the bite it used to, since mediocre players are not getting over $50 million and it never seemed to be a huge deal for guys making a lot.
Donaldson is a unique case in that he’ll be 34 and tied to a QO, if he has a 4ish war level season that offer will impact him more than most when he’s likely looking at a 3 year deal for an aging player.
I agree if he does well and didn’t get a QO it would look like shenanigans of there is a rule about it. Although I’m not sure who’d complain. Both sides win in this case.
The Braves are a unique case in that they’ve already been busted, severely, for bending the rules.
Reeeeeealy hard to imagine them taking a second bite.
It really comes down to simple economics. The old “lost picks” were worth several million dollars in many cases. That just isn’t true anymore. If Donaldson were going to sign for 3/$60 million, and the team just takes the value of the QO out, what’s he getting instead? 3/$58 million? The Braves would be so, so, so much better off just giving him $2 million more than messing around with rule breaking (again).
As a hedge against the QO: Could they have struck a deal where Donaldson gets a player option for 2020 at, say, $35 Million, but JD does not have to exercise the option until after the QO period ends (i.e. he would only exercise if the Braves offered the QO)?
Well, he’d also exercise it if he isn’t that good in 2019, wouldn’t he? I guess you could have structured it as an option that only becomes an option if he plays 140 games and doesn’t end the season injured.
But really, if Donaldson is good enough to turn down a $35 million option in 2020, the QO is not going to hurt him.
All good points. Thanks TKDC.
No need for that sort of agreement. If Donaldson doesn’t perform well you don’t give him a QO. If he plays great you give him one, but there would be very little chance he’d accept.
Except that if he doesn’t accept a QO, whichever team signs him loses a pick to the Braves. There is value in that.
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/
Good signing for the Braves and he makes sense. A few things. Encarnacion got the Jays a first round pick (Nate Pearson). Donaldson would get the Braves a pick in the 75-80 range which has much less value/would not deter teams from signing the way a 1st rounder would. Donaldson was a joy to watch in Toronto and I think all Jays fans wish him well. There is more downside here for Donaldson than I think mentioned in the article because projection systems are always conservative and predict regression to the mean even if as a player ages, the mean is less relevant. Donaldson has had 3 straight years of declining BB%, increasing K%, increasing soft contact, worse O and Z swing %, declining defense, and most importantly decreasing PAs. Now, he is a special player so he could easily bounce back and be a great player again (which is why it’s worth the risk for Atlanta) but there is a real chance that he is in a real decline which just continues.
I would hope that no one needs to argue over whether $56 million is life changing money.
$79M by now.
Put me in the camp that wonders if the Braves made a good deal. It isn’t as if there was a hole at 3rd base. Camargo is a fine player and last year was merely a continuation of his upward climb. He has hit well in both seasons and is a solid defender, and did anyone notice that he hasn’t even reached arbitration yet. Replacing a productive young player, who appears to be continuing on the upswing, while making the minimum with an older player who may be breaking down before our eyes and paying $23M for that privilege is questionable at best. If Donaldson is worth only one win more than Camargo that is burning money, even without Donaldson’s numerous question marks.
Camargo can serve in a Marwin Gonzalez type role now though. Even if Donaldson is healthy, the Braves probably won’t want to play him more than 130 or so games and Camargo can handle SS/2B passably, giving Dansby and Ozzie in particular much needed rest. Also, the Braves bench last year was awful so this helps out there in a major way.
Then go sign Marwin Gonzales. He is sitting right there and is a lot cheaper than Josh Donaldson. I think a J.A. Happ is a better way to use that $23M.
for the left side of the infield, there are about 2,000 PA to be had.
consider this:
Swanson OPS vs LHP: .640
Swanson OPS vs RHP: .715
other: plus defender
Camargo OPS vs LHP: .813
Camargo OPS vs RHP: .803
other: versitile
Albies OPS vs LHP: .905
Albies OPS vs RHP: .696
other: inconsistent
Donaldson OPS vs LHP: .967 (career)
Donaldson OPS vs RHP: .843 (career)
other: durability issues
they all fit together kind of nicely. mixing and matching the 4 is a lot better than trading one of them due to a “taken spot”. they all kind of balance each other out.
You could add that there are reasons to believe that Swanson will be better, Camargo will be worse, and who knows with Albies.
Also, all things considered, the Braves were pretty lucky as far as injuries go in 2018. Assuming that will repeat itself (especially adding JD to the mix) would be foolish.
I would think that Austin Riley will also force himself into that group at some point this season as well.
The odds on Austin Riley reaching the major leagues are very high. The odds that he will be wearing a Braves uniform when he does are much. much lower.
not really. they need bats for 2020-2024 too.
Love JD. He can still hit, but he looked horribly hurt right from day 1 of ST last Feb. Hope he does well in ATL.
As a Nats fan, I am not too worried about this signing. Donaldson will get hurt again and miss significant time.
You guys are rebuilding, I wouldn’t worry either.
I guess it makes sense for the Braves, they have so many good young players making relatively small amounts of money.
But, sheesh, am I the only one not sure how $23m can be a bargain? Jose Ramirez is a bargain. This is not. Best case scenario, Donaldson hits his projection and the Braves get a few million in surplus value from JD’s number. The worst case is far worse than that, but again, it’s only wasting money, not assets. If you’re a team that can afford to bury a guy making this kind of money on the bench or outright release them (SF, BOS) then I guess it’s OK.
Full disclosure, I’m a Pirates fan. If $23m for a guy coming off of such a down season is a “bargain”, Pittsburgh might as well fold up the team and join AAA. Very frustrating. Based off of the other comments/upvotes, I’m going to be in the minority. Makes me wonder if we’ve got a bunch of huge market fans here or what.
Best case scenario is obviously not “hits his projection” though.
They should sign Harper to fill The gap in The outfield, but I’m sure they can find a better player.
Huh. I thought he was a lock to sign with St. Louis, as did the majority of people polled over at MLBTR. It’s a fantastic deal for both sides — I think he’s gonna have a monster year and earn himself a fat check, and if he doesn’t, it’s only one season. Atlanta will be a good team with or without a fantastic Donaldson.
Going back to St. Louis, I wonder where their money is gonna go now. I don’t buy them being in on Kimbrel (they keep getting utterly destroyed by reliever acquisitions [Gregerson, Cecil, Leone, Holland]). They don’t need any starting pitchers. Maybe they are bigger players in the Harper sweepstakes than we expect?