The Brewers Are Here
The most recent World Series, of course, was won by the Astros, and the previous World Series, of course, was won by the Cubs. Those teams have had the most successful examples of recent rebuilds, and although things don’t always go that well, the ideal rebuild goes through three phases. First, you tear down, exchanging shorter-term players for longer-term players. Then, you develop, with more talent accumulation along the way. Finally, there’s the push, the re-investment in trying to win. That’s when the rebuild is basically over. That’s when a team has climbed back in the race.
I don’t know what marked the Astros’ transition to phase three. Perhaps it was trading for Evan Gattis. Perhaps it was trading for Scott Kazmir, or for Carlos Gomez. On the Cubs’ side, there was the signing of Jon Lester, and there was the acquisition of Dexter Fowler. When the Astros and Cubs decided they were ready to win, the change was unmistakable. And now, hoping to follow in their footsteps, we have the Brewers. The Brewers have entered phase three.
To their credit, the Brewers didn’t let the process bottom out. After finishing above .500 in 2014, they spent just two years out of the hunt. Last season, they were an overachieving surprise. And now they’ve pulled off a major one-two punch. Thursday afternoon, they traded for Christian Yelich. Only a short time later, they signed Lorenzo Cain. Yelich cost four prospects. Cain got five years. But there’s no missing the message: The Brewers are ready.
Clearly these moves have come at a price. Over those five years, Cain is getting an $80-million guarantee, with some additional no-trade language. And here’s how the trade looks:
Brewers get
- Christian Yelich
Marlins get
Eric Longenhagen evaluated the Brewers’ system at the start of December, and those players ranked first, third, sixth, and 21st on his list. This is a blockbuster, with the Marlins getting potentially four major-league players, and as with most trades of this type, you could reasonably prefer either side. Depending on your own evaluation of Yelich, you might figure the Brewers overpaid. You might also figure they’re taking a real gamble on Cain, given that he’s almost 32 years old. The Brewers aren’t a large-market ballclub; they have to be more careful with their money than the Dodgers. They can’t afford many expensive mistakes, not if they want to have any kind of margin of error.
But that’s one of the things about phase three. Once you accept a rebuild, it’s not that hard to sell. It’s not that hard to take fliers. Rebuilding can be painful, but everything’s supported by the prospect of hope. It’s all about the long-term, and with a long-term perspective, anyone and everyone could work out. When a team re-invests, and prepares to win, the stakes are suddenly higher, and they feel more real. Teams are faced with decisions about impact moves that might make some people uncomfortable. It’s easy to sit in the middle, but it’s challenging to get good. The Brewers have summoned the courage to go for it.
Earlier in the week, when rumors surfaced connecting the Brewers and Yelich, I wrote about how the Brewers were looking to add to the top of the roster. Not only were they interested in Yelich; they’d also been linked to Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Today we’ve seen them get Yelich and Cain, instead of Yelich and a pitcher, but the takeaway’s the same. Firstly, the Brewers have actually added to the top of the roster, instead of just thinking about it. And secondly, it might not be immediately obvious what the Brewers have done. These might be their two new best players.
As I did the other day, I opened up the 2018 Steamer projections, putting all the hitters and then all the pitchers over common denominators. Now, Steamer is pretty down on the Brewers, and I think they’re better than Steamer supposes, but still, before today, the best-projected Brewers player was Jimmy Nelson, ranked 156th in the majors. Nelson happens to be coming off major shoulder surgery, and how good he’ll be when he comes back is an open question. By the same projections, Cain ranks 76th. And, by the same projections, Yelich ranks 40th. The Brewers didn’t just add two players. They might’ve added the two best players on the team.
That’s not an easy thing to do, and it’s certainly not easy to do in the same afternoon. Me, I like Domingo Santana more than Steamer does, but that doesn’t change very much. I don’t think Santana’s as good as Yelich. I don’t think he’s as good as Cain. Over the last three years, out of all major-league outfielders, Cain has ranked fourth in total WAR, and Yelich has ranked 11th. The Brewers are now substantially improved, and with a surplus of outfielders under control, the team is poised to make further moves, most likely swapping outfield depth for pitching.
It’s important to understand this isn’t just a one- or two-year sequence of adds. Cain, again, is now under contract for five years, and although players surely decline in their 30s, Cain just played a full season, posting a 115 wRC+ as a good defensive center fielder. You’d think he has a few good seasons left. And Yelich is 26, controlled for five years, and he appears to be so valuable he might be worth a Ronald Acuna. While Yelich doesn’t have that classic superstar profile, and while he’s mostly played under the radar, there’s not a thing that Yelich does poorly, and we’ve written on several occasions about the remaining offensive upside. Yelich hits a lot of ground balls, but he also generates strong exit velocities. It’s easy to dream on what Yelich could be if he lifted the ball a little more. I’d expect that the Brewers have already had that conversation.
And forget, even, for a moment, about what Yelich could be, in theory. You could also consider what he’s already been. Yelich has spent his career calling home a ballpark that’s been rough on left-handed hitters. Over more than 1,300 plate appearances in Miami, Yelich has put up a 113 wRC+. Over more than 1,400 plate appearances away from Miami, Yelich has put up a 128 wRC+. Keep in mind that players tend to be better at home than on the road. Since 2013, when Yelich debuted, 336 hitters have batted at least 500 times on the road. Yelich ranks 21st in wRC+, by names like Jose Altuve, Buster Posey, and Carlos Santana. Yelich has already been a quality hitter, and the environment in Milwaukee is far more favorable, even if they don’t try to change his swing or approach at all. Yelich’s power has been partially masked.
Yelich should be good for a long time. Cain should be good for a while. The rest of the Brewers could and should develop around them. Only a few seasons ago, the Brewers had payrolls north of $100 million, before the figure plummeted to the low-60s. It’s clear the club can support a nine-figure budget, and with so many young players graduating from the system, projected costs should be fairly low. That’s what makes Cain affordable, and Yelich as well. The whole point of cost efficiency is to make it possible to make a splash, when a splash can make a difference. Cain can be that difference-maker, and the Brewers can fit in his $16-million salary.
There’s more to be done. We know there’s more to be done, because in Yelich, Cain, Santana, Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Brett Phillips, the Brewers have too many players in the same spots. Something has to give, and it only makes sense the Brewers would flip an outfielder or two for help somewhere else. At that point, the team would get only stronger, depending on the magnitude of the transaction. Even when we get to spring training, and rosters are mostly settled, I imagine the Brewers will still look worse than the Cubs. They might still look worse than the Cardinals. They could project for third place in a tough division. Those other clubs are strong, as well, and the Brewers’ best starter is a question mark. I don’t know if the 2018 Brewers will have what it takes.
But today isn’t only about the 2018 Brewers. It’s about the 2018 Brewers, and the 2019 Brewers, and the 2020 Brewers and so on. This is about the Brewers moving from one phase to the next, announcing to the rest of the league they’re ready to matter again. There’s some chance they could fall flat on their faces. It’s impossible for anyone to protect against that possibility, and the Brewers might be on the verge of disappointing. But, ultimately, this is the point of a rebuild. A rebuild only works if you try to make the most of it. Give it to David Stearns and Mark Attanasio — they’re trying. There’s a new young team out there that’s trying to win.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Look at the Brew Crew sticking it to those large market teams! In the era of the super-team, if this doesn’t fire you up, then your wood’s wet.
I like the Cain signing provided my Brewers do now move Santana or Braun. But giving a player more $$$ than the large market teams think he’s work isn’t sticking it to them.
Think he’s “worth”, of course. Normally I write gooder than that.
I think most of the big market clubs are already good in CF or are refusing to add FA $ to get under the luxury tax for next year. So it might just be a case of good timing for the Brewers to go for it.
That is not necessarily true. A successful GM wants his overall roster to be as effective as possible in a reasonably efficient way. This is very different from making sure each transaction is maximally efficient.
Several teams may have won the World Series by claiming Verlander on waivers last August. This is the type of error that an over-emphasis on efficiency can lead to.
That’s not true at all.
Efficiency is just benefit/cost, overall team efficiency is a macrocosm of individual acquisition efficiency- they have the exact same benefit/cost principals.
Romanticized opinions on ‘team fit’ and ‘culture fit’ and the like don’t hold up under empirical scrutiny. Houston just won a world series, and Chicago did previously, by simply having a ton of good to very good players, many of whom didn’t have the most natural fits (Morton, Peacock, Baez, etc).
Verlander wasn’t a magical fit, nor did adding him for a few months actually add to Houston’s performance (above their other players) so much that it would have swung the playoffs for a number of teams. This is just the fallacy of overestimating the impact of the star who just won. Adding even a 5 WAR SP in July only adds 2 at most wins in the regular season, and less than a full win in the playoffs.
at this point you’re right about the last few months of a season, but the Astros were a playoff team already and to think that adding Verlander and what he did in the playoffs didn’t push them over the top I think you’re selling it short. Put Verlander on the Dodgers instead of Darvish. How he out dueled Severino twice? In this instance the one player did make a difference.
The disconnect seems to be in defining the objective – “effective” and “efficient” are not the same thing.
Verlander’s contract may not, rightly or wrongly, have been viewed as “efficient” over the next few years. This matters very little. Ace pitchers can dominate in the playoffs, and letting them pass through August waivers when they are clearly trade candidates is, I believe, unprecedented. This was predictably punished.
While this collective inaction signaled that this would be a bad winter to be a free agent player, it should have also signaled that this would be a great winter to be a free agent GM.
Nuthought has written a quite reasonable speculation below, but I don’t know that it’s so much an overpay relative to what the larger market teams think he’s worth. Teams in places like Milwaukee have to pay a premium because they’re not the larger market teams with all that goes with that.
I commented the other day that the Brewers probably saw an opening here. The Cubs are not quite the superteam they were two years ago, the Cards are good but not a superteam, the Pirates are on the way down and the Reds are behind them in the rebuild. The next few years are probably a decent time to take a shot at the NL Central (it’s a really tough division pretty much all the time).
One thing to note is that the Brewers sold three of those four guys at the highest they’ve ever been. Brinson, Harrison, and Yamamoto are considered pretty good now. Clearly, they all have more room to go up, but given the huge question marks around all four of those guys (three hitter with contact questions and a pitcher) they got a ton of certainty by giving away guys with a lot of question marks.
I like the deal for the Marlins too. Only one of Harrison or Brinson has to pan out for this deal to be a net win for them, since if they pan out they’re going to be studs. And there’s a pretty good chance one does.
Just thought of one more thing to add that’s been coming up a lot…those pesky projections.
The Brewers are projected to be not good next year, even after this. That is because Steamer is down on everyone–Santana, Shaw, Anderson, Pina…they seem to think almost anyone who was worth something last year will lose about 1 WAR of value, give or take.
But the Brewers clearly see it differently. While Steamer doesn’t buy the breakouts these guys had, the Brewers actually matched their BaseRuns last year (only one win off) and have a younger team. They are probably thinking of those two things, and that they were likely a better-than-.500 team this year without any changes.
I am not sure what to think about all this, so I’ve been defaulting to the idea that they’re about a .500 team without any changes. But whether the Brewers’ likely thought process has any merit is something I’d love to see a deep dive on (if anyone at Fangraphs is looking for something to write on).
Steamer has a much stronger regression than ZIPS. I’d look at the Brewers ZIPS to see how it projects those players.
Steamer doesn’t really believe in breakouts; just for example, Steamer and ZIPs are separated by over 1 WAR projecting Chris Taylor for similar reasons; Steamer doesn’t believe in 1 year breakouts, ZIPS sees underlying reason to believe part of it. Taylor was a 4 win player last year with an unsustainable BABIP; ZIPS projects a 3 win player; Steamer projects a 2 win player.
True but even if you add the extra 1 WAR for Santana and Shaw per ZiPS you still get a 78 Win team with Cain and Yelich vs the Steamer 76 projection. They’re still way behind the Cards and Cubs, and for that matter the Giants and Diamondbacks. They’re still a couple of star pitchers short unless Arcia breaks out. I admire their spunk though.
My own estimations or what I think theyll be projected at are …
Cubs 92
Cards 88
Brew 83
After seeing this deal, I too thought they’d add a pitcher via trade. But who? Do they have enough trade capital to get Archer? Does Duffy make sense for them?
In theory, yes. In practice, I doubt the Brewers trade Hiura and Burnes, and those guys would almost certainly need to be in the deal.
Hoping to see Braun to 1b, a package of Broxton/Santana, Thames and prospects for a Fulmer/Duffy/Archer return, and sign Darvish already would you?
Braun to 1b also sprung to mind, especially with his injuries and (horrendous) IF background. Why wouldn’t the crew keep Santana in that instance?
Thames and Broxton don’t have any real value for quality big leaguers.
A Braun/Thames platoon would probably benefit both, since if Thames struggles against tough righties, no one bats an eye at more PAs for Braun. And Thames is cheap enough that at worst he’s a $4.5mm Matt Stairs-y PH/DH with an eye toward October, which a contender generally can afford to carry.
I recognize that significant prospects would have to be included in order to get any kind of deal done. instead of down voting how about some constructive criticism?
I didn’t downvote, but this was probably because Santana, Broxton, and Thames are less valuable commodities with the same amount of control as Fulmer/Archer. Also, Hiura and Burnes would likely need to be in any deal for Fulmer/Archer, and that’s a big ask considering that both are really polished.
Generally speaking, if you have a staff ace under control for the next four seasons, volume of lesser-quality major leaguers doesn’t get it done. Most teams don’t trade 4-5 WAR players for an army of guys in the 2-3 WAR range.
Duffy, on the other hand…that might be doable.
Brewers really don’t have enough to offer for a #1 or #2 SP. The best thing they can do now is sign either Darvish, Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta. But do they really want to spend the big $$ that will take?
The owner does. Attanasio’s been willing to go big before, and now that Stearns has rebuilt the farm and restocked the roster with cheap big league talent and now that there’s light at the end of the “Braun contract” tunnel and now that there are pretty darn few holes to fill with this club, there’s every reason YU should expect him to shell out some more bucks on a FA SP 😉
If they want a #1 or #2 SP, then their only real option in FA is Darvish.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Cobb has some upside, but he’s never put it all together yet in a healthy season and he’s not exactly young.
There’s really no reason for any team, much less a small-market team like the Brewers, to sign Lynn or Arrieta at the prices that have been reported.
I don’t think Stearns makes this move if he doesn’t think Milwaukee is a finalist for Darvish.
Pulling both Cain and Yelich off in the same day? There’s no better way to tell your top FA target that you’re serious.
I smell a pair of moves to land a couple arms here: a Darvish signing now, and a trade to clear up the OF logjam later.
I’m not convinced they need to go the route of getting a “true” #1 pitcher.
Someone like Alex Cobb would make that a very, very rotation, especially when Jimmy Nelson gets healthy. Nelson/Anderson/Cobb/Davies/anyone else
By no means are they household names, but they can compete with nearly anyone, in my opinion.
Chacin
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jhoulys-chacin-will-be-a-fun-brewers-project/
Let’s say ownership bumps them to 115ish million. They sign Darvish and trade Santana for someone like… oh let’s say Clevinger.
would that team even project for 81 wins…? i’m not doubting it. Just an honest question.
Already at 80-ish just with Yelich and Cain, even with a pessimistic steamer projection. Darvish + a number 3-4 sp should get them to 85 wins as a reasonable floor.
Fangraphs has them at 75 right now.
Darvish at 3.5 wins probably improves that by 2.5 and let’s just say a #3 at 3 WAR improves that by 2.
That’s ~80 there.
If that is with the Yelich and Lorenzo Cain projections figured in, then I stand corrected. But still a pessimistic projection.
Worth noting that the ZiPS projections on the Brewers are more optimistic than Steamer for 2018. I’m almost certain that the projected standings are currently based only on Steamer because ZiPS projections aren’t yet on the player pages.
The Depth Chart that was part of the write-up of the Brewers’ ZiPS has them at ~79 wins (31 WAR) without Nelson included. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/
The ZiPS projections have Cain as little if any better than Phillips/Broxton in CF and Yelich as about 2 wins better than Santana, so that’s roughly .500 now.
With as negative as Steamer projects so many of the Brewers’ players, I doubt that there’s a realistic path to get their 2018 Steamer projection to 81 wins. I think that the average of Steamer and ZiPS could get to something like 80-82 with the sorts of moves that JG007 is discussing.
Edit: With the mixing and matching of looking at both numbers, I think that I initially underrated how much they’ll move up in Steamer projections having both Cain and Yelich. Broxton and Phillips both have 2018 Steamer projections barely above replacement level.
I’ve always been a believer no matter whether you are playing Little League or MLB you need quality SP to make the playoffs. So, as the Brewers stand now, do they have the necessary SP to get it done? IMO, I don’t think so. Adding Darvish, Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta will certainly improve their odds. They need a full season of 2017 Nelson in addition to any FA add.
Uh, Sorry but Cleveland is not coughing up Clevinger under any conditions short of a Yelich. And they may already have one of those in Zimmer.
Five years of their Future #2 for Santana? Doubtful.
Want Tomlin?
Guys, the point isn’t that Clevinger is magical but that Cleveland can’t afford to trade him. Other than Mackenzie they don’t have any long term rotation candidates close to the Majors. With Kubler’s back issues and Carrasco’s Injury record they can’t trade from the top of their Pitching depth. And not for a Player they don’t need desperately.
At most they might move Tomlin Or Merritt and neither is bringing back Santana. It’s not a good match.
Not sure why your original comment got voted down.
I continue to insist that the Indians don’t have the starting pitching depth that others claim. Yeah, they have 6 starters but that includes:
*3-4 guys who have had injury issues (Carrasco, Tomlin, Santana, perhaps Kluber)
*1 who is very inconsistent (Santana)
*1 who isn’t very good (Tomlin)
*1 who is still unproven (Clevinger)
And there’s likely a VERY large dropoff from #6 to #7 (Merritt). So trade one of them away, one gets hurt, Santana or Tomlin struggles again, and where does that leave Cleveland???
Unless I missed something, your “Santana” is actually Danny Salazar, right?
Yeah! It’s weird how you can proofread something multiple times and still not catch a simple mistake. 🙂 🙂 🙂
I took it as a sign that brewers fans thought I was dissing their Santana. My fault for not being clearer that anything cleveland can afford to offer won’t be a fair trade for him.
jeez oh man. i shouldnt have been specific with the pitcher in the original post. Didnt realize Clevinger was so beloved.
i shouldve just said “decent pitcher who is similarly good as Santana with similar contract status.”
lesson learned.
As of right now, the Brewers have 9 SPs that Zips projects to have an FIP- between 85 and 105 (Clevinger’s projection is 103). I could be wrong about Clevinger, doesn’t seem to move the needle for the Brew Crew, although the Indians do seem to be a match in that they have a need for a cheap/productive RF.
My guess is the Brewers were the lone team to go 5 years on Cain. Bully for him. They’ve got two potential All-Stars in the outfield now. And that’s not counting Braun and his bat. The NL Central just got more interesting.
There is rarely anything wrong with 4 good outfielders, but let’s say they all are healthy and it’s opening day, is a former MVP not starting?
Would be pretty surprised if Santana isn’t traded by opening day.
Nothing wrong with 4 in the DH League, or 3 good and 1 OK starter. 4 good ones is a clubhouse problem waiting to blow up.
Braun probably shouldn’t be expected to start more than 120 games anymore and more rest would do him good. You start him against every lefty and 2 out of every 3 righties. Trade Santana for a pitcher and use Broxton as the fourth outfielder.
Braun can DH 9-10 times too…
Would be great to unload Braun to the Red Sox if possible, IMO.
With 3/$65m or so left on his deal, and 3.6 WAR (1.7/1.2/0.7)
projected for the next 3 years, his deal seems ~30m underwater.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3410&position=OF
To balance the deficit, maybe Dombrowski would like a scouts-favorite like Corey Ray enough to take Braun’s whole contract.
Bronson and Phillips offer interesting upside, while parting with Santana would seem a big step back unless it brought in Archer- and even then it’s risky.
Ya, that’s exactly what the Red Sox need: An over the hill slugger, with an albatross contract who could play an adequate OF, but realistically is DH at this point in his career.
I mean I get you’re joking but everyone in Boston seems to want JD Martinez and it’s not unreasonable to think of Braun as the poor man’s version. No way are sox are making that deal but to say the red sox don’t need a bat is a bit disingenuous
Sounds like JD Martinez in two years
Braun has a no-trade. There are about 3-4 teams he would accept a trade to, and they’re all on the West Coast. And even then, the Brewers aren’t going to unload a prospect to get rid of him when he’s still a cromulent big leaguer.
I remember Braun came up in the infield, so my first thought was maybe they might move him to 1st… Which made me look up his infield defense, which was LOL. Didn’t know people could field that poorly.
It makes sense that Broxton doesn’t get many at bat’s and Phillips starts in the minors, but what about Braun? If he moves to 1st he would he taking at bat’s away from Jesus Aguilar whose likely a better hitter than he is, and Thames who is at least serviceable.
I can’t seem to kick the thought that one of either Santana or Broxton is going to get traded and turn the corner. Broxton finally become the player we have hoped he could be, and Santana to take the next step into one of the games best hitters
I’d love to see Broxton go to San Francisco. Not necessarily for the defense, but to see how someone like Alonzo Moore could work with him.
Moore deserves quite a bit of credit for his role in making the Astros go from worst to first in striking out. Broxton cutting down that strikeout total would make him a beast.
Double whammy? Someone never watched press your luck.
whoopsadoodle
I don’t think this gets them into the playoffs.
But does it get them closer than any alternative path? Would holding actually be better? It’s plausible the front office thought their core would only peak as an 85 win team in 2020, at which point players of Cain and yellich ilk would be prohibitively expensive and their assets would have depreciated if only by losing years of control. If that is their belief it makes a ton of sense to push in now while the nl central is weak, the wildcard is a hot streak away, and the market for wins is soft.
I was terse for a reason. What you said may be true, I just don’t think this gets them into the playoffs.
Lo Cain will produce surplus value for the Brewers so good signing for them.
As a Cardinal fan, I’m happy the Brewers made the Yelich trade. I’ve been worried that they’d peak as division favorites around the same time the Cub’s window closed. This move made it much less likely that they ever have a year where they’re projected to be the division winner.
I’ve championed Cain as the bargain of the off-season, so I’m sad to see the Brew Crew get him. Nevertheless, I’m very happy the Brewers are already cashing in the fruits of their rebuilding efforts on a third (or fourth) place team.
The Cubs have a lot of talent in the org, smart management, and tons of money. I don’t think they have the kind of window that closes.
We’ll see, but their moves for the past few years have pushing toward having a window. They gave up a lot of team control years of young players between the Quintana, Chapman, Davis, and Wilson/Avila trades, and the only long-term player they got back was Quintana with team control through 2020.
At some point the Cubs are going to have to get meaningful draft value out of picks that aren’t top 10 overall (they’ve done great with those) and draft some pitching that works out for them. A couple good drafts or some low-minors prospects taking unexpected steps forward can change that outlook, but they’ve got some things to figure out to extend their window past the next few years.
It also helps them a lot, of course, if one or both of Russell and Schwarber lives up to their early career expectations and consistently beats 2017 performance going forward.
Even the yankees have rebuild/retool phases.
It’s just that theirs’ last months, not years.
You blink and you miss it.
Dodgers are headed that way.
Cubs?
Too early to tell.
This is a good trade for the Marlins, and a big step in their rebuild. If they cannot trade for a #1 or #2 starting pitcher, then this trade fails for the Brewers.
The Brew team badly needs starting pitching. It’s likely the worse rotation in baseball of any team likely to win 75+ games. Their “ace” is Chase Anderson (career 3.87 ERA, and do for a major regression), which pretty much says it all. The improvement offered by Cain/Yelich over Santana/Brinson is not great compared to the major improvement two top 40-ish starters would offer over Yovani Gallardo and Brent Suter (or even Davies/Chacin if you prefer).
There are several other problems – timing and aging curves, for one. Cain will never again be as good a fielder as he was last year, or as good on the base paths, since these decline with age. Last year’s career high contact is also likely to see some decline, and he probably won’t be as lucky (.269 xBA vs. .300 BA), though you never know. (I feel better about Yelich, for reasons detailed in the Yelich-Acuna article, as well as the improvement we can expect coming to a more favorable ballpark. And in fairness, he after all is the only one involved in the trade.)
Timing is a problem for two reasons:
1) Do they really think they would contend in 2018? IIRC, they over- performed last year, and the loss of Nelson for much of the coming year (and uncertainty about him after that) sets them back even further.
2) The timing/order of the acquisitions seems cockeyed. Shouldn’t they have obtained a pitcher first, and then after opening up room in the OF, gone after an OF or two? It seems unlikely they will get much pitching for one or two of their outfielders now.
And don’t get me started on the future potential — on the Brewers or as trade bait for pitching — of the other 3 prospects.
On the other hand, if they can still get a Darvish or other top pitcher, then yes, that helps fix their biggest problem, and maybe they can contend in 2018. If that happens, I reserve the right to change my mind about 2018-19.
Aging curves aren’t deterministic. You speak with more confidence than the data you bring warrants.
Where are you getting an xBA of .269 from? xStats has him at a .306 xBA, and his xOBA was .348, while his actual OBA was .347. He wasn’t lucky at all, he performed exactly as well as he should have.
.269 xBA from last year was from BHQ (pay wall). He does have historically high BABIP rates, so we might not expect that to change, and it might not be entirely luck. But over time, those rates tend to regress toward MLB norms. But maybe he will be lucky. 🙂
Travis L of course has a point, there is plenty of room for human variation. But still, there is plenty of evidence that OF tend to reduce their fielding skills as they age, IIRC it’s pretty much a straight-line correlation. He’ll be 37 when this contract ends. Can you show me 5 OF this century who retained their fielding skills going from age 31 to 37? The general point is pretty much indisputable (though you are welcome to try), we all expect Cain to decline as he ages, the real question is whether the higher value in his earlier years is worth the risk. And this is related to my main point re the other aspect of timing – is this really the Brewers’ window of opportunity if they cannot also acquire substantially better pitching?
Looking at FG’s defensive metric (Def), Cain’s fielding decline has already begun. In his first full year (2013), he was at 20.3, this past year he was at just 3.5 (a career worst). Brett Phillips, by contrast, was at 4.5 last year (SSS applies).Of course, Cain will probably be a lot better defensively than Santana, a notoriously poor fielder.
Great day for MLB!
Which of their outfielders are they going to trade? I doubt it would be Santana because he is young, cost-controlled, and one of their best players, but the Brewers aren’t going to have teams lining up to trade for Ryan Braun with his contract. I’m not a Brewers fan so I might be missing something but it seems to me that they’re either going to give up a guy in Santana who is an awful lot like Yelich or they’re going to have to eat some of Braun’s money.
Generally speaking, you want your 4th OF to be at least serviceable in CF. By that logic, Santana’s on the block.
However, with both Cain & Yelich now on the roster, they’ll be starting a serviceable (or better) CF in a corner, Meaning they don’t necessarily need their 4th OF to CF-capable. Meaning they can shop both Broxton & Santana, and take the best deal for either. Good situation to be in.
I love Showmingo, but he doesn’t provide much baserunning or any defensive value, along with the 29% K rate that even at 25 years old is hard to see his long loping frame adjusting out of. He just completed his first injury free season.
Yelich is a significantly better player.
I am not a Brewers fan but I am glad to see them make moves. With all the Angels and Rockies moves and this recent flurry, I am looking forward to the so-called super teams getting challenged in the next season. Wish someone in AL Central and NL East would make few moves now.
Adding Yelich for Brinson, who looked awful in his brief trial, Harrison, a toolsy question mark and Diaz, hardly a sure thing, is a terrific move by the Brewers. Braun will be hard to move, probably impossible, but if Broxton and Santana can bring in a solid starter, which is very reasonable to expect, then the Brewers look like legitimate contenders. Watch Chacin, he could really be the key to the season. Give me a bonafide major league player over this collection of prospects, who appear to be quite risky.
Agreed on Chacin, he’s their wildcard. Though I think they use Broxton and/or Santana to restock or 2cnd. I just do not see them going to much deeper into their farm to get what it would take for a tier one or two starter. Arrietta makes sense if they are willing to push the budget.
Big moves by the crew.
Where do all the outfielders fit?
Yelich in LF, Cain in CF, Braun in RF, Broxton and Phillips on the bench, Santana in Cleveland
The Marlins getting even worse is just more reason for the Braves to actually sign a free agent and start pushing in their chips…
Santana, Phillips, Hiura, and top arm for Archer?
I don’t have a problem with either of these moves on their own, but I cannot understand them together. Yelich’s 115 wRC+ doesn’t look as good in left field as it would in center, and Cain’s money theoretically could have been spent on more pitching.
Playing LF hasn’t prevented Yelich from averaging nearly 4 WAR from 2014-2016.
Fair point, but it appears that his bat has begun to slip from those seasons, which isn’t surprising since BABIP declines earliest of the major offensive metrics.
Upon probably-final thought, Richie the Brewers fan is against these moves. Mildly. Given their projected wreck of a rotation, a pre-moves win projection in the mid 70s strikes me as quite reasonable. Such teams should not be trading Future for Present. If/when they wind up trading Santana for an established-thus-certainly-older starting pitcher, that’ll exacerbate the matter.
Given the advantage teams have in signing their own prospective free agents, I can accept the Yelich deal. It’s just as much consolidating value as pushing it forward. But unless they move Domingo for similarly young talent, this increases their chances of winning 85 games the next few years and reduces their chance of winning 90 the following ones. That’s a bad tradeoff.
The Cubs are the Cubs. Dominant but with a depleted farm and some significant question marks. The Cardinals have announced that they’re done for the offseason and they’re still just an 83-88 win team, with their own question marks that could make them much worse. And they won’t be in on any of the top-tier free agents next offseason, nor have they shown the appetite to give up significant prospect hauls for superstars. The Brewers, in two moves, just made themselves significantly better, and they’re still actively in the hunt for SP, with both the payroll space and the trade chips to make it happen. If they add 2-4 wins in SP before Spring Training, the Central is a genuine 3-way race for the next few years. Speaking as a Cards fan, I have a massive amount of respect for what the Brewers FO is doing.
As a Cubs fan, I wholly agree. And the Pirates could be right there with the right future moves.
Go NL Central!
When did the Cardinals announce they are done for the off-season?
Mo said something about a week or so ago, not too long after the Warmup.
I wonder if a Santana/Odorizzi swap might make some sense.
Too bad Alcides Escobar isn’t a free agent anymore. They had a real shot at reuniting all the players they gave up for Greinke.
Glad to see the Brewers going for it! Wish I could remember which league they’re in.