The Cardinals and the Joneses

The phrase “Keeping up with the Joneses” originated in an Arthur R. “Pop” Momand comic strip in 1913. For better than a century, the phrase has characterized the attempt by many Americans to match or exceed the assets and social status of those in close proximity to them, namely their neighbors. (Of course, now you can keep up with all the Joneses on social media.)

The Chicago Cubs have created much envy in the NL Central. They are the neighbor with the new infinity swimming pool, the shiny new luxury car parked in the three-car garage, and the remodeled kitchen complete with a $10,000 range. They had a lot of parties last summer and generally seemed quite popular.

There cannot be a greater feeling of envy toward the Cubs than in St. Louis. The Cubs are a threat to the Cardinals’ sustained excellence over the last decade, perhaps the most impressive run in the sport since the Atlanta Braves’ MLB-record 14 consecutive postseason berths in the 1990s and early 2000s.

We know the Cubs are coming off a World Series title and a 103-win regular season. The Cubs retain their core and have few weaknesses. The Cardinals won 86 games last season, missing the postseason for the first time since 2010.

With a passionate fanbase that’s unaccustomed to watching a rival neighbor accumulate such wealth, now would seem the time to act boldly and irrationally and emotionally if the Cardinals front office were ever to operate in such fashion. On the contrary, the Cardinals have been cautious, having made a total of zero 40-man roster transactions since December 12. While the Cardinals did raid the Cubs for a significant asset in Dexter Fowler, St. Louis has otherwise operated in a relatively low-key fashion this offseason.

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak has been asked one question over and over again this offseason, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports: has he done enough to catch the Cubs?

“I always feel like it’s sort of dangerous to simply chase your neighbors,” Mozeliak said. “That phrase — ‘Keeping up with the Joneses’ — can be dangerous, right? I think the best strategy is try to build a club that you think has a chance to win your division, get to the postseason. Obviously, a lot of things have to happen along the way, and part of that’s good fortune. Part of that is playing well. You look back to last year, some of those things we just didn’t do that well.”

By taking on too much debt, by making extravagant purchases, and trading too much of tomorrow in a quest for immediate satisfaction, Keeping up With the Joneses can have dire consequences. The Cardinals, probably wisely, are apparently not willing to try and keep up with the Cubs via a dramatic and bold offseason. It’s perhaps why the Cardinals remained on the “periphery” of the Chris Sale talks, according to Jon Heyman. Moreover, baseball is crazy and unpredictable. The Cubs might suffer some serious regression in 2017.

But right now the Cubs are a heavy favorite and the Cardinals – and every other team in the division – have a significant gap to bridge.

So what to do?

Instead of worrying about outside voices, or about what to add, or about another club’s roster, teams are well served by first examining themselves and their own areas of proficiency and deficiency.

Mozeliak told reporters there were things the Cardinals simply didn’t do well last season.

The Cardinals publicly vow to improve their baserunning reports Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Cardinals rated as baseball’s second-worst baserunning team last season.

And another, perhaps more glaring, area where the Cardinals have quietly become mediocre, one area the club can perhaps improve dramatically without dramatic transactions – and another area where the Cubs were historically good last season – is defensively.

Way back in October, Mozeliak told the Post-Dispatch defensive improvement would be a focus. And all the defensive metrics from DEF to DRS to defensive efficiency are in agreement that Cardinals have slipped defensively.

Consider each club’s three-year DRS totals:

In 2014, the Cardinals ranked first in baseball in DRS.

Assuming 10 runs is equivalent to a win, the Cardinals were 10 wins better than the Cubs via defense alone in 2014, and were eight wins worse last season. If it’s not an 18-game swing, it’s still significant and glaring.

Assuming the Cardinals keep positioning Fowler deep in center field, and assuming his performance gains are real, then the Cardinals should improve in center thanks to their largest investment of the offseason.

More important is that Randal Grichuk shifts to left field, where the Cardinals — and Matt Holliday, in particular — struggled last year, posting -10 DRS, 26th in the sport.

The Cardinals struggled everywhere in the infield last season, save for second base. And it’s in part due to those defensive woes that Matt Carpenter is being relocated full time to first base, and Jhonny Peralta will perhaps open in a platoon at second base or at third.

Perhaps these moves can close the defensive gaps. The overall gap between the Cardinals and Cubs, on paper, is significant.

But the Cardinals are starting from a strong base. While there are not many 4-WAR or better ZiPS projections present in their depth charts revealed last week, there’s plenty of quality and room for upside with young talents like Alex Reyes.

And the Cardinals continue to have one of the game’s most effective farm systems, a club that has earned a whopping 39.4 WAR from its 2009 draft class according to Baseball Reference’s version of the metric. While the system isn’t as talented as it was in in 2013 and 2014, it has ranked among the top 15 for four straight years in Baseball America’s organizational rankings. Mozeliak is on record saying the system is as deep as it’s been during his tenure.

While the Cardinals are perhaps correct in not overreacting to what their neighbor possesses and has accomplished, that does not mean there aren’t ways to improve. But that improvement starts not by looking around their neighborhood, but within.