The Cardinals and the Joneses
The phrase “Keeping up with the Joneses” originated in an Arthur R. “Pop” Momand comic strip in 1913. For better than a century, the phrase has characterized the attempt by many Americans to match or exceed the assets and social status of those in close proximity to them, namely their neighbors. (Of course, now you can keep up with all the Joneses on social media.)
The Chicago Cubs have created much envy in the NL Central. They are the neighbor with the new infinity swimming pool, the shiny new luxury car parked in the three-car garage, and the remodeled kitchen complete with a $10,000 range. They had a lot of parties last summer and generally seemed quite popular.
There cannot be a greater feeling of envy toward the Cubs than in St. Louis. The Cubs are a threat to the Cardinals’ sustained excellence over the last decade, perhaps the most impressive run in the sport since the Atlanta Braves’ MLB-record 14 consecutive postseason berths in the 1990s and early 2000s.
We know the Cubs are coming off a World Series title and a 103-win regular season. The Cubs retain their core and have few weaknesses. The Cardinals won 86 games last season, missing the postseason for the first time since 2010.
With a passionate fanbase that’s unaccustomed to watching a rival neighbor accumulate such wealth, now would seem the time to act boldly and irrationally and emotionally if the Cardinals front office were ever to operate in such fashion. On the contrary, the Cardinals have been cautious, having made a total of zero 40-man roster transactions since December 12. While the Cardinals did raid the Cubs for a significant asset in Dexter Fowler, St. Louis has otherwise operated in a relatively low-key fashion this offseason.
Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak has been asked one question over and over again this offseason, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports: has he done enough to catch the Cubs?
“I always feel like it’s sort of dangerous to simply chase your neighbors,” Mozeliak said. “That phrase — ‘Keeping up with the Joneses’ — can be dangerous, right? I think the best strategy is try to build a club that you think has a chance to win your division, get to the postseason. Obviously, a lot of things have to happen along the way, and part of that’s good fortune. Part of that is playing well. You look back to last year, some of those things we just didn’t do that well.”
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By taking on too much debt, by making extravagant purchases, and trading too much of tomorrow in a quest for immediate satisfaction, Keeping up With the Joneses can have dire consequences. The Cardinals, probably wisely, are apparently not willing to try and keep up with the Cubs via a dramatic and bold offseason. It’s perhaps why the Cardinals remained on the “periphery” of the Chris Sale talks, according to Jon Heyman. Moreover, baseball is crazy and unpredictable. The Cubs might suffer some serious regression in 2017.
But right now the Cubs are a heavy favorite and the Cardinals – and every other team in the division – have a significant gap to bridge.
So what to do?
Instead of worrying about outside voices, or about what to add, or about another club’s roster, teams are well served by first examining themselves and their own areas of proficiency and deficiency.
Mozeliak told reporters there were things the Cardinals simply didn’t do well last season.
The Cardinals publicly vow to improve their baserunning reports Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Cardinals rated as baseball’s second-worst baserunning team last season.
And another, perhaps more glaring, area where the Cardinals have quietly become mediocre, one area the club can perhaps improve dramatically without dramatic transactions – and another area where the Cubs were historically good last season – is defensively.
Way back in October, Mozeliak told the Post-Dispatch defensive improvement would be a focus. And all the defensive metrics from DEF to DRS to defensive efficiency are in agreement that Cardinals have slipped defensively.
Consider each club’s three-year DRS totals:
| Year | Cardinals | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 72 | -25 |
| 2015 | 15 | 10 |
| 2016 | 4 | 82 |
In 2014, the Cardinals ranked first in baseball in DRS.
Assuming 10 runs is equivalent to a win, the Cardinals were 10 wins better than the Cubs via defense alone in 2014, and were eight wins worse last season. If it’s not an 18-game swing, it’s still significant and glaring.
Assuming the Cardinals keep positioning Fowler deep in center field, and assuming his performance gains are real, then the Cardinals should improve in center thanks to their largest investment of the offseason.
More important is that Randal Grichuk shifts to left field, where the Cardinals — and Matt Holliday, in particular — struggled last year, posting -10 DRS, 26th in the sport.
The Cardinals struggled everywhere in the infield last season, save for second base. And it’s in part due to those defensive woes that Matt Carpenter is being relocated full time to first base, and Jhonny Peralta will perhaps open in a platoon at second base or at third.
Perhaps these moves can close the defensive gaps. The overall gap between the Cardinals and Cubs, on paper, is significant.
But the Cardinals are starting from a strong base. While there are not many 4-WAR or better ZiPS projections present in their depth charts revealed last week, there’s plenty of quality and room for upside with young talents like Alex Reyes.
And the Cardinals continue to have one of the game’s most effective farm systems, a club that has earned a whopping 39.4 WAR from its 2009 draft class according to Baseball Reference’s version of the metric. While the system isn’t as talented as it was in in 2013 and 2014, it has ranked among the top 15 for four straight years in Baseball America’s organizational rankings. Mozeliak is on record saying the system is as deep as it’s been during his tenure.
While the Cardinals are perhaps correct in not overreacting to what their neighbor possesses and has accomplished, that does not mean there aren’t ways to improve. But that improvement starts not by looking around their neighborhood, but within.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Where is the talk about Peralta playing 2B coming from? It sounds like the Cardinals are giving Wong a lot of leash at 2B this year. Gyorko slides over to second if Peralta and Gyorko are in the lineup
Yeah, I’ve seen it mentioned a couple times and I think it’s completely baseless. I can’t imagine seeing Peralta play any significant amount of time at 2B, it’s just not going to happen.
Peralta can’t play 2B, he struggled w/ anything not hit in his immediate area at SS. I have no idea who said that or why, but Wong/Gyorko and on occasion Carp. will get starts at 2B.
Well, Mozeliak basically said that in the Langosch MLB article linked in this post:
‘ “[Peralta and Gyorko at 3B] will be a competition,” Mozeliak said. “You look at what [Gyorko] did last year, certainly he deserves that [chance]. That’s where we’re in a good spot because whoever wins that job, the other person can play all four infield positions.” ‘
I think it came from the ZIPS projections, which listed Peralta under Wong at 2B.
The position of Peralta on the ZIPS chart makes perfect sense, as Wong and Peralta are likely to be platooned as far as ABs go, just not in the traditional positional sense.
If the Cubs play Kyle Schwarber in LF for 150 games that will probably close the defensive gap between the Cubs and Cards.
The Cardinals took a step in the right direction by drafting Delvin Perez. When you look at the Cards present lineup only Randal Grichuk has the plus tools that you look for and he came from the Angels, not via the Cards farm.
The strength of the Cubs is their lineup. If your team is in that division you can find hope in Epstein’s sudden stupidity in giving away top position talent for two relievers and Epstein may not be done. The Cubs have two more stud position players on their farm and Wade Davis has a sore elbow.
You’re joking, right? Even if you squint, Soler is nowhere near “stud position player” status.
Almora Heyward and Schwarber is a better defensive outfield than Piscotty Fowler and Grichuk.
Schwarber is a DH playing LF. He’s comparable to Matt Holliday. Almora is near elite in CF and Heyward is still elite in RF. I still give the edge to the Cubs defensively in the OF but, it’s still worth noting that Almora’s bat may not keep him in the lineup. It could be Jay in CF, Schwarber in LF and Heyward in RF on most days. If that’s the case, the Cardinals easily have the better OF’er. Jay, is not a good defensive CF…I watched his entire career 🙂
Fowler is worse than Jay or Almora at defense.
There are very few outfielders worse than Jon Jay. Even when he was young and fast he was a liability in center field. He has good hands, but that’s it.
I love the down votes on a comment that is self-obviously true. Keep it up, BFIB.
Here are the ZiPS for this comparison:
Heyward +13
Almora +4
Schwarber -7
Piscotty +5
Fowler -6
Grichuk -4
How could they project Grichuk when he’s barely played in left field in his career? And how can Fowler project so badly when he’s been average the last few years.
I’m willing to say that Heyward and Almora are good enough that this Cubs’ outfield might well be better defensively than this Cardinals’ outfield, but several of these numbers are profoundly weird.
Def should include positional adjustment, right? The positional adjustment puts the value of an average defensive corner OF (-7.5 positional adjustment) 10 runs below an average defensive CF (+2.5).
Going by that, Piscotty looks far too high and both Grichuk and Fowler look far too close to Schwarber. UZR/150 isn’t definitive on the 3 players with limited MLB playing time, and a projection system won’t proceed on the basis that Fowler’s defense improved for the last two years because he played deeper.
But Piscotty is something like average to above average in RF, not the +12.5 implied here.
Grichuk is average-ish or a bit below in CF. He should be at least 10 runs more valuable on defense than Schwarber – a bad LF’er – not a mere 3 runs.
Even given Fowler’s inconsistent history, it is tough to believe that any player regularly allowed to play CF has basically the same defensive value as Kyle Schwarber in LF.
Schwarber’s number equates to an average defensive LF’er, which is awfully optimistic. Is it possible that ZIPS also assumed some time at catcher? Due to the catcher’s positional adjustment (+12.5) that would help Schwarber’s Def total even if he’s a well below average catcher.
If these Def numbers aren’t position adjusted, then we need to make position adjustments for the assumed positional playing time assumptions or else this comparison is just garbage.
Almora is probably going to be the primary center fielder though, and he’s better out there than Fowler. The biggest addition/ subtraction in the Central is actually Fowler’s ability as a lead-off man because the Cardinals didn’t really have one before and now the Cubs don’t really have one. They’ll probably go primarily with Zobrist, but he’s old and slow and he’ll be forced to play RF, where he’s not as good of a fit offensively.
From the title, I assumed this would be about the Cardinals stretching out Trevor Rosenthal with an eye toward turning him into another Andrew Miller:
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/rosenthal-to-be-stretched-out-for-different-role/article_0d72a8da-51fe-5f01-a849-d1397c5978c1.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share
The article primarily talks about making him a starter but also includes the notion that he might become a Miller-like super reliever pitching multiple innings out of the pen.
Rosie and Wacha will likely get a shot at that role, despite them both hoping to be in the rotation. I see Rosenthal as an extreme longshot to ever start for St. Louis. He’s like, 9th on the depth chart.
I think they’re serious about going with the “power reliever” model and using their relievers for multiple innings while sparing their starters. Bowman and Lyons figure to be out there for multiple innings too. Really the only “short” guys on the team are Siegrist, Cecil and Oh with the three long guys and Broxton (who I hope to never see pitch again).
I’m going to go out on a limb and wager that you didn’t watch much of Cleveland before the playoffs. This narrative of Miller having been in a super-reliever role is a stretch, at best. Miller got 4+ outs just in just 11 of his 70 appearances all season, or in 8 of his 44 appearances with Cleveland. And a big part of his ability to do that was due to his ability to keep his pitch count low; in 3 of the 8 appearances where he got 4+ outs, he didn’t even touch 20 pitches. He only threw over 30 pitches four times all season, three of them with the Yankees.
Even in the aggregate he got the same number of outs in NY as in CLE: his IP/G was a constant 1.12 all season long. Few would describe the way he was managed in NY as a super reliever.
So OK, then maybe the STL plan is to turn Rosenthal into a super reliever for the playoffs. Could be, although what a funny strategy to set out with at the beginning of the season when you’re in the same division as the Cubs. Making the playoffs probably means aiming and hoping for good fortune to grant you the wild card. I’m not sure that using Rosenthal for 2 lower-leverage innings one or two times a week is the best way to do that.
I know you’re just sharing the STL Today article’s thesis, but I’m really stunned by how many writers, when looking for something to write about, are blind to the fact that there’s the way the playoffs work and the way the regular season (AKA the admittance exam to the playoffs) works. I will believe that teams are going to start using the ‘HELP reliever’, using Boras’ terminology, when I see it.
Well Rosenthal isn’t going to be a super anything unless he remembers how to throw strikes.
I think a lot of the speculation comes from Rosenthal’s October first outing where he threw 3 innings and looked dominant. Also, he only gave up one run in his last 10 innings and generally looked like his old self after returning from injury. I think there is something to be said for stretching him out a little bit, as he tends to find his command with a bit of a longer leash. However, I would agree that a miller-like role would probably be unsustainable over the course of the season. Maybe 2 innings at a time with two days off between outings would work?
I was really happy to hear Mozeliak say that because I’m a big believer in focusing on your own team and making it the best you can by making wise, measured decisions, but at the same time I don’t think it was entirely true. If this were ten years ago when the NL Central was a joke, the Cardinals wouldn’t have signed Fowler. They would have made a more conservative addition like Dyson (who may well outproduce Fowler anyway).
How much of the cards top 15 farm rank is still Lunhow leftovers?
Cards are in trouble long term. Farm isnt as strong (I dont care what Moz says, what they have isnt Miller/Wacha/Rosenthal/Martinez/Wong//Adams/Taveras) and an older roster.
Luhnow left after the 2011 season, so not many. I think Alex Reyes was acquired during that time but no one else from the Cardinals’ current top 10 system. Kantrovitz handled the next few drafts before he became the assistant GM in Oakland and then Chris Correia had the 2015 draft before he got canned and Randy Flores took over.
Reyes was post-Luhnow: signed December 2012.
Essentially nobody in the Cardinals’ farm system is a “Luhnow leftover”. Luhnow’s last draft was 2011. Everyone on the Baseball America top 10 prospect list for the Cardinals – http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-st-louis-cardinals-top-10-prospects/#m0J6labxqVFKUAMm.97 – was drafted or signed in 2012 or later. (And only 2 of the 10 were in 2012).
You’re also incorrect about the age of the roster. It’s roughly middle of the pack in MLB in average age: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rosters
Drilling down to take a look at age and production with 2017 ZiPS projections – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/ – 3 of the Cardinals’ top 8 position players are 30 or older: Molina (34), Carpenter (31), and Fowler (31 by opening day). That’s balanced out by several 25-26 year old players: Piscotty, Diaz, Wong, and Grichuk.
The starting pitchers and top relieves are a similar story: a few aging players such as Wainwright (35) and Oh (34) are balanced out by mid career players such as Lynn (30), Leake (29), and Cecil (30), and younger players such as Martinez (25), Reyes (22), Weaver (23), and Rosenthal (27). (I’ve not included Wacha (25) because his injury history makes him an “old” 25.)
It’s not the youngest roster, but it’s not nearly as old as you claim.
Totally disagree with this comment. The Cards 2013 class was the consensus top class in baseball and was loaded and deep. The current class may lack the top level talent outside of Reyes, but is very deep and has a lot of high floor players in the upper minors and a lot of high ceiling guys a bit further away. The Red Baron does a pretty good job of evaluating the system here: http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2017/1/15/14278042/viva-el-birdos-2017-top-prospects-list-part-six-wrapping-it-up-cardinals-minor-league
You use a terrible analogy. Instead: These are two competing businesses, and one invested in new technology and equipment, and created a new and better product, thus becaming the best in the industry. The other, formerly best in the industry, has done nothing new in several years, adding no star products, with a general manager who insists on doing things the old way, while hoarding cash that he gives to the owner.
The general manager, apparently afraid of doing anything innovative, continues to insist on running the company in the old way, while the company continues to lose ground in the market. Unfortunately, the only real “plan” that the GM has is to hope that bad things happen to his competitor that has blown by him, maybe several of their new and better machines break down or their factory blows up. All the while the GM knows that if he doesn’t do anything exciting he will keep his job because his company has a blindly loyal customer base that will keep buying his inferior, outdated, product.
We also have to look at the teams recent performance, and not just one year.
The cardinals have been consistently competitive, while trying to avoid budget busting contracts, not trade away too many future assets, etc.
The cubs pretty much tanked for a handful of years, racked up draft picks, got quite a few high draft picks, and for whatever reason experienced a career comeback by arietta, hendricks developed much greater than expected, etc.
I give the cubs a lot of credit for what they did and have done. But, the cardinals also have not taken a handful of years off to build a farm system and things of that nature.
In sports, it’s much more difficult to maintain competitiveness than it is to build it periodically. That, to me, is a tremendously important point.