The Cardinals DFA Erick Fedde as They Slide Further From Contention

Last July 29, Erick Fedde was a key piece in a three-way blockbuster that ended up having a major impact on the postseason. Unfortunately, that impact wasn’t for the Cardinals, who acquired him from the White Sox; instead Tommy Edman, who was dealt from the Cardinals to the Dodgers in the same eight-player trade, won NLCS MVP honors and helped his new team to a championship. Fedde pitched reasonably well for St. Louis — who missed the 2024 playoffs — late last season, but his performance this year suddenly took a sharp turn for the worse. On Wednesday, the day after he was roughed up by the Rockies, the struggling 32-year-old righty was designated for assignment, a likely prelude to being released.

The move isn’t exactly a shock, and it comes as the Cardinals have slipped in the standings, in all likelihood ruling out an aggressive approach as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. The team has gone 5-12 in July to drop their record to 52-51, plummeting from three games out of first place in the NL Central to 9 1/2 out, and from having a one-game lead for the third Wild Card spot to being 3 1/2 back, with both the Reds (53-50) and Giants (54-49) between them and the Padres (55-47):

While losing five out of their last six to the Diamondbacks and Rockies, the Cardinals’ Playoff Odds dipped below 20% for the first time since May 8:

The Cardinals had reportedly been shopping Fedde in recent weeks, less because they expected a substantial return (though they hoped for something) than because they wanted to open a rotation spot for 25-year-old righty Michael McGreevy. Now it appears they’ll be trading other players as well, not conducting a fire sale but focusing more on improving for the future than trying to claw their way back into this year’s playoff races.

More on that below, but first, Fedde. In 20 starts totaling 101.2 innings, he’s pitched to a 5.22 ERA and a 5.09 FIP, with a 14.1% strikeout rate. The last mark is the lowest of any starter with at least 100 innings, and his drop of 7.1 percentage points from 2024 is the largest of any pitcher with at least 100 innings in both seasons. In Tuesday night’s start at Coors Field against a team that entered just 24-76, he was rocked for seven hits (including two homers) and six runs in three innings. It was the fourth time in five starts — two against the Cubs, one apiece against the Braves, Pirates, and Rockies, the last three not exactly powerhouses this year — that Fedde failed to last at least five innings. Over that span, he allowed eight homers and 26 runs in 17.2 innings, walking 11 while striking out eight, and blowing up what had been a respectable 3.54 ERA and 4.07 FIP through his first 16 starts. The Cardinals lost all five of those games and have dropped 15 of Fedde’s 20 starts overall.

This is Fedde’s second major league season since returning from a one-year star turn in the KBO. In 2023, as a member of the NC Dinos, he won the pitching Triple Crown by going 20-6 with 209 strikeouts, a 2.00 ERA, and a 2.38 FIP in 180.1 innings; he was voted the league’s MVP and took home the Choi Dong-won Award (equivalent to the Cy Young) as well. Prior to that, Fedde spent parts of six seasons (2017–22) with the Nationals, who chose him with the 18th pick of the 2014 draft out of the University of Nevada-Las Vegas.

With the Nationals, Fedde was knocked around for a 5.41 ERA and 5.17 FIP in 454.1 innings, but overseas he improved by raising his arm slot, emphasizing his changeup, and reshaping his slider (Statcast classifies it as a sweeper). The new-look Fedde returned stateside on a two-year, $15 million deal with the White Sox. Between Chicago and St. Louis, he pitched to a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 177.1 innings in 2024, good for 3.4 WAR.

So what happened to Fedde this year? His average sinker velocity actually increased from 93 mph to 93.2, but it came out of a slightly lower arm slot; the dip from an average arm angle of 37 degrees to 35 changed the shape of his pitches and, judging by the numbers, created less deception. Batters hit for higher averages and slugging percentages than last year against three of his four offerings (sinker, sweeper, and cutter), with the slugging allowed against his sinker increasing from .366 to .450 and against his cutter from .470 to .565. Batters whiffed less often per swing against three of his four offerings as well (sinker, cutter, and changeup), with his whiff rate on the sinker dropping from 20.2% to 10.5%, and on the changeup from 16.5% to 11.7%.

After Tuesday’s start, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold noted Fedde’s recent problems with his cutter:

A significant drag on Fedde’s performance in the past two months has been a misbehaving cut fastball and his commitment to using it.

The cutter was a key part of his revival since returning [from the KBO] ahead of the 2024 season. It gives him a fastball to challenge left-handed hitters, and he described Tuesday night how it’s also a pitch he can elevate as a fastball. The cutter is a high-reward pitch that can be high-risk if it’s erratic. A good cutter snaps bats. A bad cutter finds the barrel. The first two extra-base hits off Fedde on Tuesday both came on the cutter.

Via Statcast, the monthly numbers against Fedde’s cutter are gruesome:

Fedde’s final dud happened 24 hours after McGreevy held the Rockies to two runs and seven hits in seven innings in his fourth start of the season, a spot start after being called up from Triple-A Memphis. A 45-FV righty who ranked ninth on the team’s Top 41 Prospects list at the beginning of July, McGreevy has pitched to a 3.49 ERA and 3.23 FIP with a 15.2% strikeout rate in 28.1 innings with the Cardinals this year, and a 3.72 ERA and 3.32 FIP with a 25.5% strikeout rate at Memphis. As Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan described him, “McGreevy is a six-pitch surgeon who tends to attack east/west with mostly below-average stuff.” His fastball sits just 90-92 mph, touching 95, and his best pitch is a 50-grade slider, but his command gets grades of 60 present and 70 future.

The Cardinals had decided to keep McGreevy in the majors instead of returning him to Memphis, briefly considering a six-man rotation. Instead he’ll take Fedde’s spot, joining righties Sonny Gray, Andre Pallante, and Miles Mikolas, and lefty Matthew Liberatore in what has been a disappointing rotation thus far. The unit’s 4.02 FIP ranks seventh in the NL, but its 4.61 ERA is 12th, and its 18.4% strikeout rate 14th. None of the regular starters have an ERA below 4.00; Gray (4.04 ERA, 2.88 FIP) and Liberatore (4.13 ERA, 3.51 FIP) have been the best of the bunch, while Mikolas (5.20 ERA, 4.72 FIP) has been nearly as bad as Fedde, and Pallante (4.91 ERA, 4.45 FIP) not much better.

The rotation has been particularly bad in July, putting up a 7.43 ERA and 5.59 FIP in 80 innings (about 4 2/3 per turn) and greasing the skids for this slide — but bringing clarity to the team’s focus as the trade deadline approaches. “The Cardinals executives, in a ‘transition’ year, were leaning toward a [sale] months in the making but also open to a signal from the results,” wrote Goold. “They sure got it.”

It’s tough to imagine anybody giving up talent for Fedde and taking on his $2.7 million in remaining salary; he’ll likely clear waivers and then be released. The Cardinals are fielding offers on other pitchers, though. They have four who are pending free agents, namely Mikolas and relievers Steven Matz, Phil Maton, and Ryan Helsley. The 31-year-old Helsley, the team’s closer, will likely generate the most interest, but the two-time All-Star has been somewhat disappointing this season. His home run rate has more than doubled, from last year’s 0.41 per nine to 1.06, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 29.7% to 24.8%. After posting a 2.04 ERA and 2.41 FIP last year, he’s up to a 3.18 ERA and 3.77 FIP, both his highest marks since 2021. His four-seam fastball still hums at an average clip of 99.3 mph, and he’s making just $8.2 million, so he’ll have suitors among teams looking for a rent-a-closer.

Matz, a 34-year-old lefty, has been solid in a relief role, posting a 3.29 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 52 innings; he’s held lefties to a .205 wOBA, though righties have managed a .328 wOBA. He’s making $12 million — the Cardinals signed him as a starter, but he’s made just two starts this year, and seven last year while missing nearly four months due to a lower back strain — so the team will probably have to eat some of that salary to get a return of note. Maton, a 32-year-old righty, is the team’s top setup man and is in the midst of the best season of his nine-year major league career, posting a 2.48 ERA and 2.51 FIP in 36.1 innings, with a 30.9% strikeout rate and just one home run allowed. He’s making just $2 million. The 36-year-old Mikolas, who’s making $16 million, has a full no-trade clause and an ERA of 5.07 over the past three seasons; he’s not likely to go anywhere.

The Cardinals don’t have any other pending free agents, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said recently, “We have a lot of players that teams have interest in, and we have to sort through all of that.”

As for their controllable players, many of the ones who would have turned heads a few years ago, such as Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Lars Nootbaar, have battled injuries and underperformed. The big question is whether the Cardinals will trade Nolan Arenado, a situation that’s complicated by his full no-trade clause and about $53 million remaining on his contact through 2027. Mozeliak told reporters he would circle back to Arenado to discuss his preferences; over the winter, the 34-year-old third baseman quashed a deal that would have sent him to Houston. As of December, Arenado’s wish list reportedly included the Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox, but the Padres’ Manny Machado and the Red Sox’s Alex Bregman render those destinations moot, and the Dodgers expect to get Max Muncy back from a bone bruise in his left knee soon. In the spring, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that this past offseason, Arenado turned down a deal to the Angels as well.

Arenado is hitting just .241/.299/.379 (89 wRC+) with 10 homers, though he hasn’t left the yard since June 21. This is his second season in a row slugging below .400, so he no longer fits the bill as a middle-of-the-order bat likely to have as much broad appeal to contenders as Eugenio Suárez. That said, he makes up some ground on the Diamondbacks slugger with his defense; while he’s not likely to win an 11th Gold Glove this year, his 5 DRS and 2 FRV are nearly mirror images of Suárez’s metrics (-5 DRS and -4 FRV). Among contenders, the Yankees have the most glaring third base need, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this month that they were concerned about Arenado’s declining offense.

For teams caught in the middle such as the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Twins, this is an unenviable time of year. Chasing the faint hope of a playoff berth with a team that finishes only a few games above .500 generally isn’t prudent and will likely be viewed harshly in hindsight as fans lament the prospects that could have been acquired. Waving the white flag to sell in order to build for the future is even less popular, because attention spans are short. The Cardinals are caught in that conundrum, though at least when it came to Fedde, the decision was clear.