The Cubs Have Too Many Outfielders!
On paper, it’s hard to see Jon Jay as any sort of upgrade for the defending World Champion Chicago Cubs. Prior to the one-year, $8-million agreement between Jay and the club, our Depth Chart projections featured Jason Heyward as the recipient of the majority of the team’s center-field plate appearances, with Kyle Schwarber receiving most of the time in left, Ben Zobrist in right, and Jorge Soler serving as a backup at each of the latter two positions. Adding Jay, moving Heyward from center to right, giving Zobrist the majority of time at second base, and forecasting fewer plate appearances for Javier Baez (who had appeared as the starting second baseman on the depth charts previous to the acquisition of Jay) does little to help Chicago’s projections. That said, the acquisition probably does have benefit for the 2017 club — even if the abundance of outfielders ultimately serves to diminish the trade value both of Soler and Albert Almora.
Despite his otherworldly defense in right field, Heyward doesn’t seem to be an ideal fit in center. While he can handle the position, the Cubs have appeared unwilling to make him the starter there. They re-signed Dexter Fowler to avoid that scenario this past year and were likely always going to find a replacement for Fowler this offseason. The addition of Jay gives them the opportunity to deploy a platoon in center now, with Jay handling the lefty side of things and a 23-year-old Almora taking a couple hundred plate appearances from the right. That’s a sensible solution. As sensible as it is, though, some questions remain regarding the Cubs outfield.
The first question is this: why Jon Jay? The 31-year-old center fielder produced a league-average .291/.339/.389 line for San Diego last year in just 373 plate appearances after a broken forearm caused Jay to miss all of July and August. He didn’t really hit at all after returning from the injury in September, but it’s tough to extract much of anything from a month of plate appearances. That 2016 campaign followed a 2015 during which he hit just .210/.306/.257, producing a 57 wRC+ while hampered with wrist issues throughout the season.
Jay’s offensive production is entirely dependent on a combination of his batted-ball success and his butt. His power isn’t really a factor (he’s produced an ISO under .100 over the course of his career), and he’s also walked at a below-average rate. His contact skills are decent, although he did strike out in more than 20% of his plate appearances this past season. When Jay has put together above-average offensive seasons — as he did in four of his first five years with the Cardinals — it has come largely on the strength of a BABIP in excess of .340. In the one average season he produced, his BABIP was .325. He supplements the BABIP with an ability to get his body in the way of pitches. Over the last five seasons, only Shin-Soo Choo, Starling Marte, and new teammate Anthony Rizzo have been hit by more pitches. On defense, Jay’s weak arm and merely okay range render him about average defensively in center. Entering his age-32 season, he isn’t likely to improve in either capacity.
Overall, our projections call for Jay to produce a .269/.333/.360 line, an 87 wRC+, a .329 BABIP, 10 HBPs, and slightly below average defense. The result: a 0.5 WAR in 414 plate appearances. Jay might BABIP his way to a higher average like he did last year, but he doesn’t look like a good bet for it.
As for Almora, he’s projected to slash .269/.300/.397, good for 84 wRC+. Combined with average defense, he’s forecast for a 0.5 WAR in 328 plate appearances. Similar offensive value combined with a slight defensive edge probably renders Almora the slightly better player in 2017, let alone into the future.
So we return to the question posed above: why Jay? A possible explanation is that he’s simply a cheap insurance policy for Almora. At $8 million, he doesn’t represent a major expenditure, and he guarantees some floor of production while failing to block Almora should the latter experience substantive improvement at the big-league level. Alternatively, it’s possible that the Cubs simply aren’t that high on Almora. Once one of the top-50 prospects in baseball, Almora has lost his shine over the past few years. If the Cubs believed in Almora as the future in center field, it seems unlikely that they would give away 400 center-field at-bats to Jon Jay.
It’s also possible, both with regard to Almora and Soler, that their trade value will never be higher than it is right now, and that the Cubs plan to see what they can get for either or both this offseason. If the Cubs relegate Almora to fourth-outfielder status in 2017, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he has more appeal to clubs a year from now. That said, giving him a clear role as a platoon outfielder — with the chance for something greater if he plays well — provides a path towards something better. The possibilities with Soler are less clear.
Soler entered the 2016 season without a starting spot. As a result, many wondered if the club should trade him last winter. Coming off a 2014 that included a cameo in the majors, Soler positioned himself as one of the best prospects in baseball. The Cubs handed Soler the job in 2015 but he failed to run with it, producing roughly average offense from a corner-outfield spot, where reports of his defensive prowess were not great. The Cubs ultimately didn’t trade Soler in the subsequent offseason, bringing him back even after signing Jason Heyward, retaining Fowler when he fell in their laps, and handing the left-field job to Kyle Schwarber.
An early-season injury to Schwarber might have initially seemed to open the door for Soler. Ultimately, though, he received only a part-time role, recording 264 plate appearances and, again, producing a roughly average batting line. Meanwhile, Kris Bryant started a bunch of games in left field, while Baez, Chris Coghlan, Willson Contreras, and Matt Szczur all got extra time to compensate for Schwarber’s absence. Now, with return of a healthy Schwarber in 2017 — and perhaps more time for Baez at second base — there appears once again to be only limited plate appearances left over for Soler.
The Cubs could resolve this by trading Schwarber, as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello recently suggested. That would likely net the biggest return — and the Cubs are likely in need of some young pitching as Jake Arrieta and John Lackey enter their last seasons before free agency and Jon Lester ages another year. That could free up some playing time for Soler if the club is confident he’ll take another step forward. Soler isn’t necessarily cheap relative to the service time he’s accumulated: the deal he signed out of Cuba calls for him to make $3 million in 2017 and $4 million the following three seasons — and gives him the opportunity to opt into arbitration if that would prove more profitable for him. The Cubs are certainly free to hold on to Soler and use him as depth. Their resources afford them that luxury. Unless he breaks out next season, though — and the projections are pessimistic that will occur — the Cubs should capitalize on whatever he still possesses of his prospect-ish trade value, take what they can get for him, and move forward.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Offensive production from his butt?
The monstrous booty is a great pitch target.
Meanwhile, Jay’s lack of trust production is entirely dependent on a combination of his butt and a smile.
Girl, I must warn you.
You’re saying that Jon Jay is poison?
Was Jay even on the list of crowdsourcing projections? I don’t recall it if he was. It seemed to me that he might not even get a ML offer.
I really doubt that Baez is going to sit every day. It seems more likely to me that the Cubs think Heyward isn’t fixable and that Zobrist and Baez are going to play every day.
If anybody’s been paying attention, the Cubs don’t have a set lineup. Guys get moved around based on matchups… Bryant, Rizzo, & Russell are the only guys that will play every days… there will be a rotation with the rest getting around 500PA
Right.
Contreras and Montero handle the catching, with a possibility of some Schwarber.
Rizzo at first. Bryant fills in the 10 or so games Rizzo sits.
Zobrist at 2B for roughly 100 games. Baez backs up Zobrist…likely 50 games.
Russell at short. Baez here when Russell is not…probably about 15 games.
Bryant at third. Baez as the backup…50 games.
Schwarber in LF for 120, plus he grabs time behind the dish, and as a DH. Bryant takes the remaining 40~
Almora and Jay in CF for roughly 120-130 games, with Heyward stealing about 30 starts there.
Heyward in right for around roughly 110-120 games, with Zobrist filling in for around 40 or so games.
So basically everyone sees 130-140 starts except Rizzo, Bryant, Russell and Baez.
Rizzo/Bryant/Russell are essentially everyday starters.
Baez ends up starting around 120 games with time at 2B, SS, 3B.
La Stella pinch hits and fills in occasionally.
Szczur remains an extra OFer in a reduced role. Perhaps he is upgraded for a true pinch runner type.
Which leaves Soler is a tough spot. Either you drop playing time for Baez dramatically and keep Bryant/Zobrist on the infield in favor of Soler….or Soler gets practically nothing.
I think I’d go with Baez and trade Soler….except I don’t know what that return would be.
I still think they made a mistake with Soler and he could’ve used another year or two in the minors.
In 2014 between Double A, & Triple A, Soler put up a 1.132 OPS, with a wRC+ in the 200 range. Really hard to keep down a guy doing that.
Is this the first non-Notgraphs article on Fangraphs to feature the word “butt”?
Whelp. http://www.fangraphs.com/players.aspx?lastname=butt&type=blog
Why do people keep speculating a Schwarber trade? There is almost zero chance that happens. Theo gushes about him like it’s his own son.
Baez could be in play this offseason, packaged with Soler even, for pitching.
I think Jay simply replaces Chris Coghlan as the 5th outfielder with an ability to play center. Jay isn’t getting 400 at-bats unless Almora just stinks.
Because his natural defensive position is DH, I’d guess.
DH isn’t a defensive position. Catcher was his natural position, as I’m sure you’re aware. And he’s going to catch some and be a slightly below average outfielder.
He’ll continue improve in both roles defensively. Just too good of a bat to give up. I’d think the Cubs will be able to afford more starting pitching next year or trade for the type of under-the-radar guy that can be had for a lot less. Power-hitting left-handed bats with elite on-base skills don’t come along very often.
Even conceding that in a perfect scenario he would be a DH, it’s irrelevant. As I said, Schwarber is basically an untouchable player in management’s eyes. Speculate on Baez or Soler or something that might actually happen. This site should be better than that.
I think those that don’t follow the team closely speculate about it because it makes a lot of sense. He’s worth much more to a team that can play him at 1b or dh than he is for the Cubs so those who haven’t heard Theo talk so glowingly about him presume that he’s trade bait.
Just curious…has any GM ever traded their own son?
Al Campanis traded his son, Jim, to the KC Royals. Guess he lacked the necessities.
And wasn’t Avila in Detroit involved in a trade of that sort?
Saying that Jorge Soler received a “Part-time role” after Kyle Schwarber went down is a little off. He struggled early and was starting to get hot at the plate before he got injured and was out for an extended period in the middle of the Summer. Seems like you did little research on him at all.
He started 63 of 111 games when not on the DL.
He did say a little off. Starting 60 percent of the games is the better part of a platoon or closer to a full-time role. For me, a part-time role is a guy getting a start or two a week.
I think your definition of part-time is in the minority. Before the injury, Soler was on pace for 440 PAs. That’s 62% of what Cubs LFs got all year, and about 15 starts shy of qualifying for the batting crown. Most people in this room would be fine with calling that “part-time.” After all, the Cubs themselves had 7 guys with 450+ PAs, and that doesn’t include a catcher.
But here’s the bigger point: The guy you defend started with “a little off,” but ended with “you did little research on him at all.” One might debate whether the first line fits, but the second one clearly doesn’t, and it lowers the level of the whole discussion. Is that really who you want to be with?
John – I’m not taking anyone’s side and not with anyone.
My point was simply when Maddon plays so many guys such significant ABs, they’re almost all essentially starters.
hmm. would you describe 60% of something as part of that thing, or nearly all of it?
I didn’t use the words “nearly all of.” That said, I would call a guy who starts 70 percent of the games a full-time regular. So Jorge would be close to a full-time starter, particularly the way Maddon likes to play matchups, etc.
But to answer your question, I would call 60 percent a majority of that thing.
I feel like what the point that hoehne2 is trying to make is that Soler had a lot more DNP after his injury than prior to it. There were 18 DNP after his injury (mostly in a 2 week period in Sept) and 6 prior to his injury.
He was still a part time player, but I feel it may have been a little different down the stretch with a handful of pinch hit opportunities in the games he just didn’t play.
The idea that he was “getting hot at the plate” is laughable. Over a 15 game stretch prior to the injury his numbers increased, but they were far from “hot” and more appropriately “decent”
Chances are that Soler probably would have started around 55% of the games had he not been injured, as that was approximately what he was going for prior to the injury.
Could I just interject that we’re talking about a guy with 765 major league PA’s and only 1.5 WAR as if he’s a factor? He’s even less relevant to the Cubs’ outfield situation than Jay.
I can’t believe they’re moving on from Coghlan. He was magical in a Cubs uniform. He was great in all of 2015 and again in 2016 after the Cubs reacquired him. I would have thought he was a lock to be re-signed for a minimal amount since he apparently can only play well wearing Cubby pinstripes.
Coghlan brings less useful flexibility to the Cubs’ bench than Jay because Jay can play center at a more or less acceptable level and Coghlan can’t. Coghlan hasn’t played center since 2013, and both DRS and UZR said that he was pretty brutal there (in an admittedly small 800 inning sample from 2011 to 2013).
It’s true that Coghlan can play some 2B/3B and that Jay can’t, but the Cubs don’t really need another player who can play those positions in addition to Bryant, Baez, Zobrist, and La Stella. The Cubs also, as this post points out, don’t really need another corner-only OF. Jay fits a Cubs’ positional need for a part-time or bench player, while Coghlan doesn’t.
It’s also possible that Coghlan thinks as a free agent that he can sign with a team where he has a realistic shot to match his 2014-2015 playing time (400-500 PA’s) as a platoon player (or bench player backing up several positions) but that he’d need one or more serious injuries to get a lot of playing time with Cubs.
Exactly. Jay is an upgrade over Coghlan because he can play a quality center field. And I’m guessing the Cubs view him as a guy who can help mentor Almora.
Fangraphs doesn’t typically take chemistry in to account–but Dexter and Heyward were close friends. Jay and Heyward get along well and with younger black players like Addison and Heyward–the more seasoned Jay makes for a good confidant. Plus Jay on his own merits when healthy makes a fine “instigator” type player..he runs the bases hard–gets on at a pretty decent clip and even with a mediocre arm has range that is good enough for CF in Wrigley.
This is a silly thing to argue over, but it is true that Soler started 12 of the Cubs’ first 14 games, suggesting that the Cubs wanted him to be the regular left fielder only to play himself out of that role with a poor start at the plate.
Cubs could certainly deal from this list, and some A’s fans have suggested targeting Almora. My preferred route: call the Dodgers and see if you can get Toles or Thompson if you also take Ethier’s contract. Start with a 2b prospect, Munoz maybe…
They already have Heyward’s contract, why would they take on Ethier’s contract? They’re not exactly in a bad position where they have to take on bad money…
He’s talking about the A’s trading for OF help with the Cubs or Dodgers, thinking it might be cheaper in talent to take Ethier’s contract to get Thompson as opposed to pay full freight for Soler or Almora.
I’d certainly prefer Thompson but I suspect the Dodgers have him as a keeper.
You may have a point… there’s a good chance that I read it incorrectly.
Simply enough, I think Jay replaces Coghlan on the roster. Yeah he could start for you in a pinch, but you probably don’t want him to.
And maybr I’m being optimistic but when I watch Almora, I don’t see average defense. I don’t think I’m imagining that others have said potential gold glove center fielder when talking about his upside. Now, this would be his first full major league season so maybe he will be closer to average than gold glove but still, sounds like that aspect is being sold short.
In 2016 his fangraphs WAR is 0.9 in a limited role thanks to his defense.
You’re not being optimistic; He 100% has gold glove caliber defense. The author is selling Almora short on his defense. His defense and hit tool were the reasons why his floor was so high to begin with because they knew they at least had a 4th-5th outfielder. Where Almora could separate himself is if he becomes more patient in his approach, so he only focuses on pitches he can drive. Almora’s hit tool is similar to Castro’s in the sense that they are so good at making contact that it could negatively affect them if they make consistently weak contact on “pitcher’s” pitches.
Wow, I literally had to make an account just to comment on this egregious statement of Almora having average defense. Have you actually seen this kid play? He’s going to compete for a gold glove every year. This kid is a stud defensively and has been for years. Gold Glove caliber defense with a slightly below to average bat this year would make him more than just a 0.5 WAR player.
I just heard that Joe Maddon’s giving T-shirts to Cubs fans:
“Try not to have knee-jerk reactions.”
The author cited a systematic projection for Almora. For various excellent reasons, the system won’t project brilliant defense based on 25 games’ worth of innings. Other 2016 rookies with strong defensive numbers get the same treatment in projections — Keon Broxton, Andrew Toles, Mitch Haniger, etc.
Despite that sober view, the author still concluded that Almora looks better than Jay now, and for the future. Why must you be so outraged?
I’m sure Cubs fans aren’t really TRYING to alienate everyone else who thought it was kinda neat that you finally won it all. But that’s what you do with this endless hot air on your wonderful prospects. I beg you — LET THEM ACTUALLY DO SOMETHING FIRST.
The original post here was overly aggressive, but Almora has always been considered to have 60-65 grade defense.
Agreed….but I’ve seen 65-70 grade defense and 60 arm.
It may have been a knee-jerk reaction, but I just can’t fathom how someone could say Almora will only be “slightly” better defensively than Jay. Jay has a weak arm with average to below average range in CF. All the reports on Almora as other’s stated below are outstanding defensively. He’s got an above average arm with excellent instincts that allows him to cover a ton of ground in CF. Jay isn’t even close to touching Almora with the glove. Listen, I get that systematic projections can’t do these background checks on prospects or everyone to determine future success, but the author should at least do his homework first before posting something like this. Overall, I like the article because he’s not wrong; The cubs do have too many outfielders, but that doesn’t mean I can’t comment on something I don’t agree with. Almora may struggle with the bat, but defense carries over from the minors, so that’s why I think a 0.5 WAR is way off. He could probably get to 1.5 WAR to 2.0 WAR on defense alone. Also, it’s not just because I’m a cubs fan that I’m defending Almora. If the author made this statement on any other prospect who I knew a lot about than I’d defend that prospect just the same, and I’m not trying to alienate anyone. You’re the one who is alienating me and all cubs fans. Why can’t we have a disagreeing opinion trying to provoke thoughtful conversation? Listen, I respect this author, but that doesn’t mean I can’t state my disagreements.
jrn0456 — I regret the last paragraph of my reply. Sorry.
But I still say you’re overreacting. “The author should at least do his homework”? The column isn’t about Almora’s defense, so it’s not worth the author’s effort to decide whether to tweak Almora’s defensive projection. Even if he had said “that’s a conservative projection,” or granted Almora an extra 1.0 WAR on defense, it wouldn’t change the discussion or conclusions.
So, indignantly taking issue with Almora’s defensive value is a distraction from the main topic, which is why did the Cubs sign Jay, and what are their plans?
And to your claim that Almora’s offense is “slightly below to average”: He actually projects as well below-average at his position. His projected .300 wOBA would rank 25th out of 29 regular CFs over the last 2 years (those with 800 total PAs), between Angel Pagan and Billy Burns. Elsewhere you speculate on Almora becoming more patient, but that’s the stuff that dreams are made of.
Almora might well beat all the projections. But so might Jay. After all, Jay has actually been an above-average MLB player in the recent past.
Being indignant is never the way to go, but the author had some failings in this piece that needed pointed out. His whole premise is that Jay is not an upgrade at all and I’m not sure he makes that case very well. Jay and Almora could be an upgrade defensively and at a far lower cost than what Fowler – who has been a below average CF every year until last year – is going to get paid. With Schwarber in the outfield, the offensive production from the outfield has a chance to be much better if Heyward gets back to his norms.
I love when people put the weight of others dislike for a team on a fan. you or anyone else hating on any team because of someones opinion is a you problem. lol @ trying to shame others
Gooksta — You’re right, I should not paint all Cubs fans as part of the subset that drones on about their young prospects. Bad on me.
I think the starting outfield is Schwarber, Heyward, Zobrist. Almora is a defensive replacement for Schwarber late in the game. Jay hits lefties well off the bench and has a good OBP for a fourth outfielder. Cubs also have Bryant and Contreras for the outfield in an emergency, so Soler isn’t needed anymore. I’d like Soler to be traded for a back-end reliever. I’m thinking Soler for Wade Davis. Davis is a one year rental coming off of an injury so the Royals won’t be able to ask for a ton. They also have Hosmer, Cain, and Escobar headed towards free agency so they won’t be able to resign Wade Davis because Hosmer and Cain are a priority. The Royals know they need to trade Davis now instead of losing him for nothing in free agency. Remember, the Pirates did not get a good package from the Nats for Melancon last year because he was becoming a free agent.
You think the Royals should trade one of the top 5, probably 3 (behind Chapman and Miller) relievers in baseball, whom they have under contract for $10MM, for a replacement level player…why?
All of these valuations of Soler and Almora are insane. Soler is a league average bat who is substantially below average in the field. Avi Garcia is a virtually identical player who will almost certainly be let go by a team that needs outfielders.
Why? Because of everything I mentioned. The Royals cannot afford Wade Davis, especially with the new CBA. Other teams will not have to give up a first round pick to sign him so they will be willing to pay more. Chris, I think it would be absurd to let Wade Davis walk without getting anything in return
And I realize Soler is an average bat. But you cannot expect to get a huge package for a one year rental. Look at the David Price Detroit Tigers trade. Look at the Mark Melancon Washington Nationals trade. And Wade Davis is coming off an injury.
I mean, you don’t even have to look beyond the Cubs this past season to know that’s not true. They traded Gleyber Torres for part of a season of Chapman, domestic abuse baggage and all.
Chapman is better than Wade Davis. Chapman does not have injury issues. He already served his domestic violence suspension so that was behind him. The Yankees did not have to trade him because they could have resigned him, the Royals have no choice. That lessens Davis’ value substantially. That’s why Melancon was so easy to acquire. Pirates couldn’t resign him so they were desperate to trade him and the Nats knew that. Cubs had to overpay to make the Yankees give Chapman up. Cubs won’t have to overpay for Davis because they know the Royals need to eventually trade him
It isn’t a one-on-one negotiation. The Royals can trade him to, like, fifteen other teams that are hoping to contend. So no team trading for Davis can expect any type of discount. And I’d bet that Moore thinks that team can win next year, so, not really like they need to let him go in the first place.
And I’d agree that Chapman is better than Davis, but we’re talking about part of a season of Chapman v. an entire season of Davis. Also, re: domestic abuse – it makes me actively not want to watch when a scumbag is on the field. My Cubs fan friends (and I’m from Chicago, and have a lot of them) were disgusted with him even though they knew he made their team better. There are some costs to signing despicable people, even if they’re hard to quantify.
But that’s beside the point. I just don’t see why people think Soler has any significant trade value left. In 200 games in the show all he’s demonstrated is that he’s a league average bat who can’t play defense. Those guys can be had in free agency for the league minimum.
Some people are late bloomers. Soler has never had the opportunity to be in the lineup every single day. (Injuries are partly to blame). Any GM in baseball would take Soler on their team. If he somehow figures it out they get a guy with 30 homer potential every year. To think that the Royals wouldn’t want a young asset with potential is crazy when they know they only have one year of Wade Davis. Especially considering Paulo Orlando and Jarrod Dyson are the other options. He pitched 43 innings last year, I don’t see any team giving up a ton to acquire him when they can go grab Jansen, Chapman, or Melancon in free agency or go get Robertson from the Sox or Doolittle from the A’s. Plus I don’t care about what players do off the field. If they win me ball games I want them on my team.
And I really don’t think “fifteen teams” are in the market for Wade Davis. One year rentals are for teams that are World Series contenders. The Marlins may want a reliever but they’re not trading a young player for someone to get them over .500 and leave the next year. Nats, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Rangers and Astros are the only teams I see seriously looking at Wade Davis. What would be your guess as to what the Royals would get back for Wade Davis?
You’re talking about a top 5 reliever with poor numbers (for Wade Davis) last season due to a recurring flexor strain set to make only $10MM. I’d think that Chapman would’ve set the market for someone like that at, at least, a top 50 BA prospect. Yes, he’s not quite Chapman, and he has the injury concern, but you’re talking about an entire season of someone who, if healthy (and he’s only in his age 31 season and likely will be) is a huge upgrade to even the best bullpen in the league. You’ve omitted Boston, Baltimore, Toronto, Seattle, St Louis, and maybe even Pittsburgh, all of whom may be looking to put together a run (and could look at what the Yankees got at the deadline and realize they could flip their acquisition at the deadline for near the buying price). So 15 was a spitball, but I don’t think the list of 13 we just compiled is unreasonable.
There are a number of guys with the potential to jack 30 dingers or provide other significant value “if they figure it out” but have not yet done so and are entering their age 25 season. What would you give up for Tommy Joseph? Tyler Austin? Wilmer FLores? Trey Mancini? Steven Moya? Three of those guys are DH/1B types, but Soler has not demonstrated the ability to be anything better than a bad OF at any level, his tools notwithstanding.
Sure those teams you mentioned could use the services of Davis, but do you really think the Orioles are going to pursue him? They need to resign or replace Trumbo, add a corner outfield bat and find at the very least one quality starter before they think about adding to a bullpen that was already good last season. Toronto already has Osuna and has holes to fill in their lineup before worrying about their bullpen. Plus both these teams have weak farm systems. Add Seattle to that list as well. I don’t see those teams being able to offer anybody better than Soler. And Pittsburgh is the last team I would expect to trade away talent for a one year rental to lock up third place in the NL Central. I would agree the Boston could use him and I wouldn’t count St. Louis out on anybody but they already signed Cecil to a bullpen that is already very talented . What makes Soler more attractive than the players you mentioned, maybe besides Joseph, is because of the upside he has. He had a bad year last year but still managed a 2.0 offensive WAR in only 260 AB’s and a 106 wRC+. He make some of the hardest contact in baseball but somehow only had a .276 BABIP. He’s due to improve. The Royals can put him at DH if they’re worried about his fielding. I agree that Wade Davis is an great reliever, but teams have so many options in the market other than Davis. By the time Jansen, Chapman and Melancon are signed, there aren’t going to be a ton of teams calling about Wade Davis.
We’re getting a little adrift with some of these other teams. I’d concede that you raise some valid points about priorities, but I wouldn’t concede that many of those teams couldn’t offer KC something as interesting as Soler. You suggest that Soler is a superior option to Dyson, but I don’t for a second believe that’s the case (though the Royals are supposedly shopping Dyson). As far as Soler as a DH, you’d be betting on the ceiling, as a 106 wRC+ isn’t all that spectacular for a DH – even if it would approximate Morales’ 2016. I think that’s a significant downgrade for their 2017 chances and doesn’t offer much for the following couple seasons unless Soler steps into the potential that Cubs fans were salivating over in 2014. Seems to me that you and I just disagree about the prospects of Soler approaching his ceiling.
Comparing Soler with Dyson is tough because you’re looking at Dyson’s best season compared to a bad, injury plagued year from Soler. All I’m saying is that Soler just had his worst year but still could be considered slightly above average if you look deeper into the numbers. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him bounce back like Marcell Ozuna did, if he stays healthy and gets everyday at bats with a different team of course. And I realize that other teams COULD offer something as good as Soler. But usually a player as talented as Soler is a part of a teams future. Soler just plain isn’t needed in Chicago because of such a talented roster. Teams that are competing for a World Series usually don’t have the resources to trade a guy with Soler’s potential for one year of a closer.
Just came back after checking MLBTR today. You are prescient and I am dumb. Well, I’d maintain Dayton Moore is the dumb one, but then, I haven’t built a WS team.
Haha I just felt that Wade’s value was lower than most people would expect. One year left on contract, wrong side of 30, coming off injuries, that’s a little risky for the Cubs. I think it’s a win/win trade though. Cubs upgrade the bullpen by trading a bat they didn’t need. Royals get a potential middle of the order bat for a reliever they would lose in free ageny.
What would it take to get Colome from Tampa? Soler and a highly regarded prospect?
Speaking of Mike Petriello, there is no such thing as too many outfielders: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-and-too-many-outfielders/ I agree that Jay is insurance for Almora, as the Cubs would like the latter to prove worthy of being a regular. I also agree that Schwarber for starting pitching would make sense, in part because he isn’t really an outfielder.
While it is possible that the Cubs aren’t high on Almora as they once were, why else bring in Jon Jay for 400 ABs—I would counter by saying it’s also possible that the Cubs are still high on Almora as their future CF, but just not quite so for 2017. Remember, Almora will still be just short of age 23 next Opening Day, so the Cubs are probably not at a shit-or-get-off-the-pot point with Almora yet. They can still let him develop in the background and get reps against LHPs, or even spend some time at Iowa to get some everyday play while Jay plays everyday for the Cubs (Jay does not have a real platoon split, after all). I think this is a good plan to allow Almora a little more time to get everyday-major league ready for another year, if he needs it. And if he doesn’t, Jon Jay can be a LH bat off the bench.
i think this is exactly right. jay is ideal for the cubs and their current CF situation because he arms them for the full spectrum of possible almora outcomes: almora not at all ready & needs to be sent to AAA (playing jay every day in CF won’t kill you), almora takes the world by storm (jay isn’t too expensive or veteran entitled to be a bench player), a gradual transition from one of those poles to the other over the course of the season, or anything in between.
“… it’s hard to see Jon Jay as any sort of upgrade …”. Well, the Cubs ability to upgrade CF is a function of who’s available. And given the Cubs’ need for starting pitching, sinking 5yr/90M into a return of Fowler doesn’t make sense.
The way I see it the last thing the Cubs want is to desperately be seeking an CF/lead-off guy in the days leading up to Spring training. By signing Jay now, the absolute worst case scenario is a Jay/Almora platoon, which defensively is equivalent to Fowler, and offensively the Cubs can make up for their lack of production with Schwarber’s return, Contreras behind the plate, a rebound from Heyward and continued improvements from Bryant, Russell, etc.
Meanwhile the best case scenario is that the Cubs continue to look for an upgrade in CF (e.g. Blackmon) without being desperate. Should that happen, Jay becomes Chris Coghlan’s replacement off the bench.
“If the Cubs believed in Almora as the future in center field, it seems unlikely that they would give away 400 center-field at-bats to Jon Jay.”
That’s a good point if Almora is also on the MLB roster as a part-time player, but I can also see a logical thought process where the opposite of that is true. Almora is just going to be 23 in 2017, and he only has 336 PA’s at AAA plus another 117 PA’s with the Cubs. It’s very possible for the Cubs to think that he’s the future but also think that he’s not ready as of Opening Day 2017. Maybe the Cubs want to figure out the latter point in spring training.
If the Cubs are high on Almora longer-term but think he could use more development before being an everyday MLB starter, then let him start the year in AAA, get at bats everyday, and come up if/when he looks ready.
So, in order, my take is that gauging how high the Cubs are on Almora as the future goes something like: starts 2017 as everyday starter > starts 2017 in AAA >> starts 2017 as short-side of platoon and bench player. Because the last of those means that the Cubs don’t seem worried about hindering Almora’s long-term development by giving him limited PA’s, strongly suggesting that they see limited upside.
I might have thought that also, but Theo or Jed told a reporter a while back that they envisioned Almora in a platoon situation at the MLB level in 2017.
I bet this move means Candelario is given a shot to outplay La Stella in spring training for that 12th and final roster spot.
Jay and Montero are number 10 and 11, Almora or Soler is number 9. The other 8 get 450+ plate appearances.
It seems in theory Jeimer has the potential to hold more value to the big league club than La Stella now. Against LHP Bryant can spell one of the corner OF.
This feels like an odd article, because the reality of baseball is that these things tend to sort themselves out. Yes, the Cubs have silly depth right now in the OF (and IF too for that matter), but it takes one injury to shoot that depth to pieces, and the one spot the Cubs were most vulnerable was CF. Unless you were of the mindset that you were okay with Bryant potentially playing some Center this year, you are locked at CF options of “really talented defender with questions about the bat” in both Almora and Heyward. I’m not wild on Jay, but he’s a good insurance policy.
Also, it’s not like the Cubs are going to have an everyday lineúp. The only guys on that team that aren’t gonna be moving around are Rizzo, Russell, and Montero.
Also, using a defensive projection of Almora as an average defender makes me wonder how well we can trust defensive projection formulas for players with low MLB experience, cause Almora has always been a “If his bat can even get to average, his glove could make him an above average everyday Center Fielder” view to him.
Blue Jays could use Schwarber, but they don’t have enough prospect capital. Soler is more realistic, but further depleting the farm isn’t the current mantra.
Can someone explain why the Cubs re-signing Dexter Fowler was apparently never an option? For a team that’s at the top, needs a center fielder, just had success with a player and has the revenue to afford re-signing that player, it seems strange to me that every off-season story took for granted that Fowler would not be returning. I’m sure that’s right, I just wonder why.
Common line of thinking is that Almora is the guy of the future there and that the Jay signing is one year confirms they are confident in him. Going that route allows them to allocate resources elsewhere, primarily the bullpen or a young starting pitcher. Not out of the question that money saved on Fowler could be spent on Arrieta next off-season. And in 5 years they’ll have to look at giving big money to Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Schwarber, Baez. Budgeting now to pay a few of those guys down the line makes some sense.
The Cubs just didn’t want to give Fowler the 18 million he’s looking for per year when he’s already on the wrong side of 30.
re: Jon Jay—.291 is league average? I haven’t checked, but highly doubt that.