The Cubs’ Historic Offensive Infusion
Sparks of enthusiasm are once again kindling among Chicago Cubs’ loyalists, as the long-awaited influx of position-player talent onto their major league roster has begun in earnest. The club is far from a finished product, and a loaded minor league system is no guarantee of major league success — just ask some of the teams I’ll discuss below. It’s an exciting time on the North Side, however, and this is before Kris Bryant — arguably the best of the lot — has been penciled into the big-league lineup. How does this group match up with some other recent talent infusions?
For much of the 2014 season, the National League Central has featured one of the most interesting races in baseball. Until recently, it was a four-team scrum, and with the recent fade of the Reds, it’s now down to three. The one club that hasn’t been involved in anything more than a spoiler role has been the Chicago Cubs. They’ve arguably had more impact to this point on the AL West race, as they traded top starters Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to Oakland back in July. In the process, they added to their stockpile of impact offensive talent, bringing the A’s two best position player prospects — shortstop Addison Russell and outfielder Billy Mckinney — into the fold. The club already had impact youth in place all season at the major league level in the person of Anthony Rizzo, and he has been joined by second baseman Javier Baez, outfielder Jorge Soler and utilityman Arismendy Alcantara as the summer progressed. Bryant, likely the best of them all, isn’t here quite yet, and 2014 first rounder Kyle Schwarber has torn the cover off of the ball in his pro debut. It is an embarrassment of offensive riches that Cubs’ fans hope can at long last lead them to the promised land.
Since 1993, I have compiled a season-ending ordered list of top minor league position player prospects based on both production and age relative to the level of competition. It doesn’t adjust for other types of context, such as ballpark or position, so it serves as more of a follow list than a true top prospect list. Still, with over 20 years in the bank, it is a good resource to look back and search for the closest matches to the Cubs’ current situation. To finish in the top 20 on my annual minor league position player list is a pretty big deal – they obviously don’t all pan out, but virtually every impact offensive player over the last 20 years has ranked that high at least once. This current Cubs’ group? Well, Bryant ranks #2 in 2014 (behind the Rangers’ Joey Gallo) and Rizzo and Baez both peaked at #4. Schwarber (#9), McKinney (#12), Soler (#14) and Russell (#20) all ranked in the Top 20 this season. Alcantara’s peak rank was #52 in 2013 — a pretty solid performance for a middle infielder, considering the lack of adjustment for positional context. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of all of this is that most of these guys are either in the major leagues or are very close to major league ready. They aren’t likely to be low-level flukes who will be exposed at upper levels.
I took a look back over my lists going back to 1993 and identified the 12 best clusters of top prospects who achieved a peak minor league position player ranking of 20 or better (with the odd “just missed” guy thrown in). They appear below.
| ORG | YRS | PROS #1 | PEAK RK | PROS #2 | PEAK RK | PROS #3 | PEAK RK | PROS #4 | PEAK RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 93 | Thome | 2 | M.Ramirez | 3 | Giles | 28 | ||
| MIL | 03-05 | Fielder | 2 | Hardy | 4 | Braun | 8 | Weeks | 10 |
| MIN | 01-03 | Morneau | 3 | Mauer | 11 | Cuddyer | 17 | ||
| LAD | 96-97 | Beltre | 1 | Konerko | 4 | K.Garcia | 12 | ||
| TOR | 94 | S.Green | 4 | C.Delgado | 6 | ||||
| ATL | 08-09 | Heyward | 1 | Freeman | 5 | ||||
| CLE | 02-03 | Sizemore | 2 | V.Martinez | 12 | Crisp | 16 | ||
| KC | 94-95 | Sweeney | 7 | Damon | 10 | ||||
| TB | 05-06 | BJ Upton | 1 | D.Young | 1 | Longoria | 6 | Dukes | 18 |
| MIA | 08-10 | Stanton | 1 | Dominguez | 10 | Morrison | 13 | ||
| KC | 10-12 | Myers | 1 | Moustakas | 4 | Hosmer | 7 | ||
| KC | 06 | Butler | 15 | Gordon | 16 |
From bottom to top, here’s a thumbnail sketch of those systems, and the eventual major league impact of those players.
Three of the top 12 offensive prospect clusters belong to the Kansas City Royals, and two of them are in the process of writing some of the most important chapters of their careers. The 2006 group features Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. Neither qualifies as a superstar – though Gordon isn’t terribly far off. This is the only group listed that lacks a Top 10 minor league peak ranking.
The 2010-2012 Royals cluster was busted up by the trade that sent Wil Myers to Tampa for James Shields. Moustakas’ career is in some degree of trouble, but Myers and Eric Hosmer project as core players going forward for their respective clubs. The 2008-2010 Marlins “cluster” is basically Giancarlo Stanton and a couple lesser lights who just happened to earn Top 20 minor league rankings in the same time frame. When all is said and done, Stanton could well challenge for the title of best player on this list – pretty heady stuff, as there are some future Hall of Famers present. The 2005-2006 Rays group possibly presents a cautionary tale for the current Cubs. Upton and Young, though they have had somewhat productive careers, were expected to be much better, leaving only Longoria as a long-term stud among the group. The Cubs certainly hope none of their prospects becomes Elijah Dukes.
The highest-ranking Royals cluster is the 1994-95 Mike Sweeney/Johnny Damon collaboration. Sweeney was a catcher for a portion of his minor league career, and put up great numbers in a very pitcher-friendly environment at High-A Wilmington at one point. If I used some journalistic license to shoehorn in Carlos Beltran (#8 in 1998), they would rank even higher.
The 2002-2003 Indians group features one homegrown player (Victor Martinez) and two shrewd trade acquisitions. Sizemore came over in the famous Bartolo Colon rental deal that represented the death knell for the Montreal Expos’ franchise, and Coco Crisp arrived from St. Louis as a player to be named later for a rental of Chuck Finley. Brandon Phillips had a couple of near Top 20 finishes as a member of the Expos organization, but performed poorly in the Indians’ minor leagues.
The book is still being written on the Braves tandem of Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, but it’s going to be a good one. Heyward’s offensive game has perhaps stagnated, but he remains a strong all-around player, and Freeman is one of the game’s most dependable sluggers.
Back in the day, the Blue Jays were one of the game’s most prolific drafting/Latin American scouting/player development machines. The Shawn Green/Carlos Delgado 1994 group represented the final salvo for a club that had won the previous two World Series championships.
Many forget that not only was Paul Konerko drafted by the Dodgers, he was also drafted as a catcher. He and Adrian Beltre were a fearsome 1-2 punch for the Dodgers in the 1996-1997 time frame, and at times, Karim Garcia appeared to be in their class as well. The power-before-hit Garcia never did learn to make contact at the major league level, though he was a useful role player for a few years.
The 2001-2003 Twins cluster laid the framework for one of the best small-market clubs of the past decade. Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer were the faces of the franchise for a decade, and only a post-prime, first base version of Mauer remains in place in Minnesota.
Ryan Braun is all that remains of the 2003-2005 Brewers cluster. While Corey Hart was the first to arrive in the majors – his peak rank was #27 – the group that also included Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy and Rickie Weeks revitalized baseball in Milwaukee. I was present for some very quiet nights at Miller Park in the early 2000’s that won’t be repeated anytime soon thanks to this group.
It’s pretty tough to argue with the 1993 Indians for the best position-player-prospect cluster over this time frame. A couple of pretty much sure-fire Hall of Famers in Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez, and one of the most underrated players of his or any era in Brian Giles.
There is one thing that all 12 of these organizations and their prospect clusters have in common – none of them have won a World Series. The Indians came within a game of doing so, and the Rays’ group also went to the World Series. A few others have reached the postseason, with only middling success on the whole. A handful of the players listed went on to win World Series rings – Ramirez, Damon and Konerko – but only after leaving for greener pastures. These players were largely developed by small- to middle-market clubs, but had to go to large-market teams to win the big one.
Besides the Cubs, there are five other current prospect/young major leaguer clusters that could join the above list. From bottom to top, they are:
6. 2012-2013 Red Sox – Mookie Betts (#4 -2014), Xander Bogaerts (#8 – 2013), Garin Cecchini (#16 – 2013), Jackie Bradley Jr. (#17 – 2012)
This group has been hurt a bit by Bogaerts’ and Bradley’s big league struggles this season, but they aren’t the first top prospects to struggle in their maiden voyage. Bogaerts and Betts in particular retain very high upsides.
5. 2012-2014 Twins – Miguel Sano (#1 -2013), Byron Buxton (#2 – 2012), Oswaldo Arcia (#3 – 2013)
Just a year ago, an article could have been written about these three – the first trio from the same organization to occupy the top three slots in my annual list. Sano had Tommy John surgery, Buxton didn’t play much and Arcia has been a solid but unspectacular big leaguer. Their cumulative upside remains high.
4. 2011-2014 Rangers – Joey Gallo (#1 – 2014), Rougned Odor (#5 – 2013), Lewis Brinson (#10 – 2014), Jurickson Profar (#10 – 2012)
Gallo’s domination of the High-A Carolina League this season was virtually unprecedented, and along with the 20-year-old Odor’s representative major league performance, it made Profar’s second consecutive injury-plagued season more easily endured. Brinson’s a high-risk, high-reward type who is a ways away.
3. 2013-14 Dodgers – Joc Pederson (#6 – 2014), Corey Seager (#7 – 2014), Yasiel Puig (#15 – 2013)
Puig’s already a star, and Pederson and Seager are relatively low-risk types who should at least be quality major league regulars. Though the Dodgers are playing for the present, they have wisely drawn the line and avoided dealing their top two offensive prospects to bolster their 2014 club.
2. 2010-2014 Astros – Carlos Correa (#7 – 2013), Jon Singleton (#8 – 2010), Jose Altuve (#9 – 2011), George Springer (#11 – 2013), Domingo Santana (#20 – 2013)
The Astros stand out because of the volume of prospects. Even beyond this group, the Astros have waves of potential major league regulars and contributors in place – keeping all of them protected on their 40-man roster might be their greatest challenge. They haven’t proven as much at the major league level as some of the other current prospect clusters, but they will.
1. 2012-2014 Cubs – Kris Bryant (#2 – 2014), Javier Baez (#4 – 2013), Anthony Rizzo (#4 – 2012), Kyle Schwarber (#9 – 2014), Billy McKinney (#12 – 2014), Jorge Soler (#14 – 2014), Addison Russell (#20 – 2014)
They’ve drafted them (Bryant, Baez, Schwarber), signed them internationally (Soler), traded for them as major leaguers (Rizzo) and traded for them as minor leaguers (McKinney, Russell). The last few years haven’t been pleasant, but the Cubs are now poised to reap the benefits of the long-term plan put in place when Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer took over.
The Cubs’ true test will be avoiding the fate of all of the other “prospect cluster” clubs discussed in this article. None of them were able to win the big one in October. While their century-plus championship drought is daunting, the club does possess the resources to keep premium talents in town for the long haul, unlike the smaller market clubs discussed above. Step one was to develop a talent procurement and player development machine. Done. Step two, have those players translate their tools and skills into major league performance. That is easier said than done, but the odds appear to be in the Cubs’ favor, given some patience (nods head toward Javier Baez). The ride should be fun, and could well end in the greatest party in the history of the Second City.
…
I would be remiss if I did not mention that baseball lost an exceptional scout and human being on Tuesday, when Milwaukee Brewers scouting director Bruce Seid passed away suddenly. I worked alongside Bruce for several years, and he was a tireless worker with a subtle, dry wit. He represented his beloved Brewers well, exuded both humility and pride and never went out of the way to draw attention to himself. Condolences to his wife Erika, his entire family and his many friends and colleagues. Godspeed.
I’m sorry, but what is this ranking system? Is there more on it somewhere else?
it is simply production relative to level and age. The idea is that an 17 year old holding his own in AA is more impressive than a 23 year old dominating high A ball. Generally it better reflects that top end talent is either dominating an age appropriate level or is getting pushed and never dominates but is consistently very young for their level (look at bogearts, who never had a great season in the minors, but was simply always very young for the level)
Very interesting stuff. I must admit it was not what I originally expected after reading the title. I thought it would be an analysis of the Cubs offense pre-prospect infusion and post-infusion this season (Alcantara, Baez, Soler) with Bryant, Russell and Schwarber obviously not included, but still it would be interesting to see what impacts those three have already had on the Cubs offense. Their sweep of the Brewers would indicate things are already improving even without all of their prospects up in Chicago.
You leave out the one player with the most impact on the Cubs team and their best hitter for the longest time, Starlin Castro. His defense has taken great strides, at 24 he has nearly 900 hits with a .292 average as the starting SS.
He’s only an average shortstop even now, and this is his fifth year in the majors. He still won’t take a walk and he never developed the power that was projected. Include him if you want, but he doesn’t amount to much. He’s a 3 WAR player and he probably always will be.
Castro has the 3rd highest OBP among qualified shortstops. His 115 wRC+ is also 3rd. To say he is “average” is a huge understatement.
His walk rate is 6%, which is 1% higher than his career average. Its his fifth full season in the majors, so the time to expect improvement from him is ending.
His season is likely over with him having earned 2.7 WAR, which is also right in line with his best two seasons of 2012 and 2011 even if you extrapolate how well he would have done in September. So again, what you see is what you’re going to get with him.
In his five year career as a starter, he has earned 14.2 WAR. That puts him 11th out of 20 shortstops who also had 2000 plate appearances in that time. So, I guess I was wrong: he’s slightly below average.
I agree he’s been average. In a recent chat Cameron thought WAR was accurate to within 1 or 2. That’s a huge number either way. So to use WAR as your basis of measuring a player is somewhat dangerous. And after all, this is an article about offensive infusion. Every players improvement clock is coming to an end. We just don’t know how fast. Castro still has his best offensive and especially power years ahead of him. Just two last things. I think you missed by one where Castro rates over the 5 year period. He’s at 11.1 WAR, not 14.2. I know, I’m fighting your fight. And lastly, his 6.2 bb% puts him right in the middle. Again your fight. But it is A. on an upward trajectory B. Not terrible compared to all SS’s and C. the best of his career. Amie is a little ambitious but his arrow is till pointing up.
Castro is no more than average his range is below average. He still makes too many errors. I would not be surprise if he is moved to third soon
@Sam
Your argument
“So, I guess I was wrong: he’s slightly below average.”
should be
“of the 20 best (ie those who have essentially been starters for 5+ years, as they’re averaging 400+ AB’s / season) shortstops over the past 5 years, starlin castro is slightly below average.”
If you want to move past your sampling bias and open up the conversation to all shortstops over the past 5 years who have seen somewhat significant playing time (lets say 1000 PA’s, or two seasons), Starlin is all of the sudden 11 out of 44 in overall WAR. Weighting WAR to 600 PA’s, Starlin is ranked 21st.
With regards to walk rate, it’s been shown many times that walk rate increases with age. Starlin will turn 25 next season. (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hitteragigall.jpg).
You say his power hasn’t developed. Again, he’s 24. Power peaks around 27-29.
He’s not a hall of famer, no doubt. But it’s hard to say a guy averaging 2 WAR a year over his career (ages 20-24) is below average.
Sure Castro is slow to develop in his nearly 5 years in the majors. What would you expect when a play is plucked out of the Minors in AA at age 20 after only 224 Minor League games total in 4 years. He never had a chance to develop properly, and I do hope you realize that it isn’t up to a player when he get called up to the Majors. Has he had problems and difficulties in development, of course he has. Most are because he has had 4 different Managers in his time in the majors, and his previous General Manager thought he could save his own skin by bringing the kid up. His best time is ahead of him and his stats say as much.
You seem to be way too low on Castro due to his BB%. You do realize that you dont have to draw a ton of walks, right? It is nice when someone can do that, but for a guy like Castro, who has plenty of offensive value without drawing those walks, it doesnt ruin his value. He still has a good OBP. His power is better than ever before. He was driving the ball better than he ever has this season. For a 24 year old, he had a great season. Remember, he is a 24 year old with 900 hits. He has been in the majors when most players his age are still in the minors. Considering he is not at his peak yet, he should be a very good player long term. He was the third best hitting SS this season at the age of 24 with nobody around his level of production at the position near his age. I saw that you used the 3 year sample size excuse a couple comments down, but that isnt really fair when one of those seasons is significantly different than the other two. He was being told to change his hitting approach in 2013 by management, so it hurt his numbers. You can call BS on that, but its hard to argue with the results he put up once he returned to his typical approach. He went right back to producing. That is amazing for a 24 year old that never really got enough time in the minors to develop the finer points of his game.
Slightly below average….LMAO
and while I’m here, I just want to say that these rankings suck. How the hell is Gallo ahead of Bryant? Gallo struck out like 40% of the time. A lot of Cubs players are in this top 20 that are no where near the top 20 in real life. Kind of strange rankings.
He’s 24. He most likely has his peak years in front of him.
Weeks is still with Milwaukee.
I can’t see calling Hosmer a “core player”.
He’s got a 90 wRC+ this season, 102 career. That’s awful for a 1B.
I think he’s closer to getting non-tendered than being “core”.
Its amazing how many people are still holding onto the theory that Hosmer is going to be a star. I suppose its still possible, but he’s had a lot of chances in the majors and he hasn’t been better than average in even one of them.
Wait, you ranked Billy McKinney as your #12 prospect? Seriously? I’ve never seen him in a top 100, ever.
Are you sure you’re thinking of the right guy? Because that’s straight up ridiculous.
This article does not include overall prospect rankings.
You’re absolutely right, I didn’t see the criteria. An objective ranking of statistics makes that ranking much easier to swallow, he did have a nice season and was younger than his competition. Fair enough.
I still don’t see a lot of potential there — I see his ceiling as Melky Cabrera with less power.
I was wondering where that came from too? And in what ranking is Schwarber #9? It wasn’t all that long ago that prospect evaluators were chuckling at the Cubs for drafting him so high. A mature college player dominating Class A players shouldn’t change his status all that much.
He said it’s just a ranking of age-for-level stat lines, not taking position into account.
Or tools or any scouting or…etc.
dominating high A is a pretty impressive achievement, especially in the florida state league. he will likely begin next season in AA. that is pretty damn impressive for a guy who was drafted in june
Good piece as always Tony. While he is not listed on any top prospect lists, Dan Vogelbach could be a name to watch for the Cubs. He is playing in a tough pitchers park league and his power numbers should normalize as he moves up the ranks. Plus, he seems to be a sharp kid, with good makeup, and handles the strike zone well with the bat.
and can somehow steal a base; glad to hear some optimism on Danny boy after a very rough campaign.
Oh, good, they’ll have a DH for inter league games 😉 the point being he’s got no place if these other guys are close to what we think they are. Trade bait for a pitcher maybe..
I’d be very interested to see your top 20 – top 50 rankings over the last 20 years. I’d be interested in knowing the bust/success rate of prospects that rated out in the top 5/10/20 etc.
Sorry to hear about your friend/boss Tony. Thanks for your contributions.
I love tony’s contributions here.
Wait, what is this ranking system? Do you really consider Gallo a better prospect than Bryant?
Agreed – I’d like a better explanation of the ranking. Gallo has been great, but not as great as Bryant. That ranking seems puzzling.
Alex Gordon has 5+ WAR in three of the past four seasons. FanGraphs’s glossary defines “superstar” as 5-6 WAR. So, yeah.
His ranking is explicitly of offensive ability, and Alex gordon as a strictly offensive player is a half tier below superstar.
“…Bryant, likely the best of the all…”
Soler > Bryant
Addison Russell has a borderline elite defensive profile and he’s got power from SS that doesn’t exist in today’s game. It seems pretty easy to envision both Russell and Soler being better than Bryant doesn’t it?
the Tampa group looks like it is the likely scenario. If you have 4 top 20 prospects, only one is likely to become a star, two are likely to be good major leaguers (or at least have a decent career in the majors) and one will pretty much wash out.
That is what happened in Tampa, and what will likely happen in Chicago. There are a few things the cubs have that will help… Rizzo and castro. Rizzo is already a star in his own right, and castro is a solid to above average SS with a pretty good contract. The best part is that the cubs have the money to spend if the core is there.